Open Interest Analysis

Jayakumar.int

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10944(-126) BankNifty 27294(-93)

Nifty futures open Interest declined marginally by -1.1% indicating wind up of long positions. Nifty(spot) failed to hold above 11000 levels, it may stay weak below 11000 with support at 10880-10850 levels.

OI in BankNifty stayed flat for the second straight session as no new positions got added. BankNifty(spot) would stay with positive bias as long as it holds above 27200, only on a close below 27200 would change the current trend.

OI Feb 11.png
 
Nifty 10889(-55) BankNifty 27228(-67)

Nifty futures open Interest went up by +3.7% indicating addition of fresh long positions.Nifty(spot) took support around its 21day moving average of 10865, would stay with positive bias above this level can move towards its resistance of 10950-10980.

OI in BankNifty declined by -2.8% as longs got unwinded. BankNifty(spot) would continue to stay with positive bias above 26900 levels, It may consolidate in the range of 26900-27400.

OI Feb 12.png
 

iwillwin

Well-Known Member
Nifty 10889(-55) BankNifty 27228(-67)

Nifty futures open Interest went up by +3.7% indicating addition of fresh long positions.Nifty(spot) took support around its 21day moving average of 10865, would stay with positive bias above this level can move towards its resistance of 10950-10980.

OI in BankNifty declined by -2.8% as longs got unwinded. BankNifty(spot) would continue to stay with positive bias above 26900 levels, It may consolidate in the range of 26900-27400.
View attachment 33326
How can increase in oi with decrease in nifty indicate addition of long position....
 
Always baffled me. Anyway, here is a small tutorial. Seems the other way round.



https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/112002.asp
As per theory, you are right price going down and OI up is short, but in practical its not so most carry over position takes place towards closing(for hedging or overnight speculation), so i usually take last 30-40mins movement of Nifty when i have doubt on OI(to ascertain long or short).

As per Feb 11th 2.50-3.30pm, Nifty went up and LTP was above ATP, even though bears tried hard to pull market down couple of times. In the end bulls won.

See the attached chart Nifty fell sharply in the opening where only 10-15% of whole day's volume take place, so if bears want to take down market they have to drag Nifty below the first half an hour rate so that further selling can come but it never happened.

In today's session, th same happened reverse bears won with Nifty closing below its 21dma, but still longs were holding that was created above 10900 levels, for market to fall either Fresh shorts should be created or long should be unwinded, both are not happened ti now.....lets wait for few more sessions.



This is the way i look into OI.......:)


OI Nifty.png
 
Nifty 10831(-57) BankNifty 27011(-217)

Nifty futures open Interest stayed flat for the day as no fresh position got added. Nifty(spot) closed below its 21-day moving average of 10870, it may stay with negative bias below this level with support at 10790-10760 levels.

OI in BankNifty declined further by -1% indicating wind up of long positions. BankNifty(spot) closed below its support of 27200, it may test its support of 26900-26800 levels.

OI Feb 13.png
 
As per theory, you are right price going down and OI up is short, but in practical its not so most carry over position takes place towards closing(for hedging or overnight speculation), so i usually take last 30-40mins movement of Nifty when i have doubt on OI(to ascertain long or short).

As per Feb 11th 2.50-3.30pm, Nifty went up and LTP was above ATP, even though bears tried hard to pull market down couple of times. In the end bulls won.

See the attached chart Nifty fell sharply in the opening where only 10-15% of whole day's volume take place, so if bears want to take down market they have to drag Nifty below the first half an hour rate so that further selling can come but it never happened.

In today's session, th same happened reverse bears won with Nifty closing below its 21dma, but still longs were holding that was created above 10900 levels, for market to fall either Fresh shorts should be created or long should be unwinded, both are not happened ti now.....lets wait for few more sessions.


This is the way i look into OI.......:)


View attachment 33350
Thanks for the explanation. I always admire a guy who makes his own interpretations, using the published knowledge as a base. Very good interpretation of the mindset of bulls and bears.

It's good to have such members here on the forum :up: Please continue.
 
Nifty 10794(-38) BankNifty 26885(-125)

Nifty futures open Interest went up by +2.4% as fresh Shorts got added. Nifty(spot) continued to stay below its 21day moving average of 10865 indicating weakness, next support would be around 10750-10720 levels.

OI in BankNifty stayed flat as no fresh position got added. BankNifty(spot) closed around its support of 26900 levels, any subsequent stay below this level would weaken and drag it towards 26750-26700 levels.

OI Feb 14.png
 
Nifty 10746(-48) BankNifty 26971(+85)

Nifty futures open Interest declined by -5% indicating windup of long positions. Nifty(spot) weakened further to close below its 50day moving average of 10814, it would stay with negative bias below this level and move towards its 100DMA of 10699.

OI in BankNifty decreased by -11.7% as short positions got unwinded. BankNifty(spot) took support around 26800 levels in the last two sessions, it may stay with positive bias above 26800 on the upside 27098(50DMA) and 27176(21DMA) would be the resistance levels.

OI Feb 15.png
 

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