Nifty Trading based on EOD

[pannalal]

First thing, I do not do trading. I am a software engineer and my job is developing software not trading. I have developed a simple automated trading strategy. After day end, it tells at what point you should go long (with stoploss and target) and what point you should go short (with stoploss and target). For example, on 10 Sep 2013, it gave long signal at 5,898.95 with stoploss of 5,702.45 and target of 6,370.55. On each day, it gives signal both for buy (long) and short (sell). Whichever occurs on next day, you need to execute, otherwise no trade. Once, you have taken a position, do not enter into another trade till you exit from the current one irrespective of the buy or sell signal. I have tested it from October 2008 to September 2013. Below, I give summary for NSE_CNX_Nifty (for 5 years from October 2008 to September 2013):

Summary
Number of Completed Trades 164
Number of Winning Trades 70
Number of Losing Trades 94
Number of Points gained in Winning Trades 12,118.59
Number of Points losed in Losing Trades -6,964.13
Total Number of Points Gained 5,154.46 :clapping:

During the above period, on two occasions, seven consecutive time stoploss has occurred. There was one occasion, when consecutive 5 times target has been reached.

Please note that above summary is based on Nifty spot (not on future). It does not include STT, broker commission or Nifty forwarding charges. I have tested the strategy with six NSE indices, six BSE indices and 19 other stock exchange indices like Amex Composite, Australia Stock Exchange, Dow 30, France CAC40, Germany DAX, Heng Seng HSI, Italian_National_Stock_Exchange_FTSE_MIB, Jakarata_Composite_JKSE, London_Stock_Exchange_FTSE100, Mexico_MXX, NASDAQ_Composite_IXIC, Nikkei225_N225, S & P 500, Sao_Paolo_Bovespa_BVSP, Seoul_Composite_KS11, SSE_Composite_Sanghai, Stockholm_OMXS30_OMX, Swiss_Market_Index_SMI_SSMI, TWII_Taiwan_Weighted, Vienna_Stock_Exchange_ATX, and Zurich_Stock_Exchange_ESTX50_EUR_P_STOXX50E.

Except NASDAQ, the result is far superior to buy and hold (or sell and hold).
I shall give complete result in due course. I shall also give (starting from Monday 29th October 2013) the sell indicator with stoploss and target as well as the buy indicator with stoploss and target for Nifty future for people to test it. In due course, I shall start giving indicator for following 12 indices:

01. NSE_CNX_100
02. NSE_CNX_500
03. NSE_CNX_Midcap
04. NSE_CNX_Midcap50
05. NSE_CNX_Nifty Main
06. NSE_CNX_Nifty Junior

07. BSE_S&P_100
08. BSE_S&P_200
09. BSE_S&P_500
10. BSE_S&P_Sensex
11. BSE_S&P_Midcap
12. BSE_S&P_Smallcap

I shall give all the above buy, sell indicators absolutely free for all members to test.

Thanks to all.

 

[rkkarnani]

Pannalal, Wlcome to Traderji !

Pannalal, What a beautiful gesture : Sharing !!! :thumb:

Expect you to improve upon the performance of the Nifty Strategy developed by you ! I dont say that your result is not good, but feel has room for betterment.

BTW, not many Indices are Traded. The major traded indices being : Nifty and Bank Nifty and to some extent IT Index ! There are probably two more indices in Futures : Midcap, Infra and PSE !

 

[pannalal]

Karnaniji,

Generally, people develop strategy by using back testing and optimizing it. I have developed strategy using my own technical indicator and did not optimize by back testing. What worked in past may not work in future. Then, I tested it on 6 indices of NSE and 6 indices of BSE. Apart from this, I tested the strategy on indices of 21 stock exchanges of the world. I have forgotten to put the name of NYSE Composite. The strategy worked in almost all the stock exchanges. So, it should give good result in future also (except in exceptional circumstances).

As the strategy is tested on all indices from October 2008 to September 2013, I have removed transaction done in September 2008 (In few case, 1 transaction was done in September 2008). After removing this, the Nifty Summary of Trades are as follows:

Summary
Number of Completed Trades 163
Number of Winning Trades 70
Number of Losing Trades 93
Number of Points gained in Winning Trades 12,118.59
Number of Points losed in Losing Trades -6,838.21
Total Number of Points Gained 5,280.38
Total Points would have gained (Using Buy/Sell and Hold) 1,856.60
Percentage Gain using Our Strategy 184%:lol:

Monthly Summary:
Summary
Number of Months Traded 56
Number of Winning Months 40
Number of Losing Months 16
Number of Points gained in Winning Months 7,696.05
Number of Points losed in Losing Months -2,415.67
Total Number of Points Gained 5,280.38
Total Points would have gained (Using Buy/Sell and Hold) 1,856.60
Percentage Gain using Our Strategy 184%

Below, I give result of BSE Sensex:
Summary
Number of Completed Trades 151
Number of Winning Trades 65
Number of Losing Trades 86
Number of Points gained in Winning Trades 37,985.15
Number of Points losed in Losing Trades -21,356.97
Total Number of Points Gained 16,628.18
Total Points would have gained (Using Buy/Sell and Hold) 7,826.98
Percentage Gain using Our Strategy 112%:lol:

Monthly Summary of BSE Sensex:
Summary
Number of Months Traded 55
Number of Winning Months 38
Number of Losing Months 17
Number of Points gained in Winning Months 23,832.27
Number of Points losed in Losing Months -7,204.09
Total Number of Points Gained 16,628.18
Total Points would have gained (Using Buy/Sell and Hold) 7,826.98
Percentage Gain using Our Strategy 112%

I want to give result of each and every trade, but I do not know how to put table in this forum.

 

[rh6996]

Thanks for sharing your hard work with all ! The results you have posted are for which "index" ? Is it for any one or an aggregate of All NSE Indices?

 

[pannalal]

This is for NSE CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex.

 

[pannalal]

NSE CNX Nifty (Future) Signal for 28 Oct 2013
Buy (Long) at 6261.48 with target of 6386.85 and Stop Loss of 6209.24
Sell (Short) at 6064.86 with target of 5939.49 and Stop Loss of 6117.10

Disclaimer: The above signal is given by automatic trading system developed by me and I shall not be responsible for any loss occurred.

 

[timepass]

NSE CNX Nifty (Future) Signal for 28 Oct 2013
Buy (Long) at 6261.48 with target of 6386.85 and Stop Loss of 6209.24
Sell (Short) at 6064.86 with target of 5939.49 and Stop Loss of 6117.10

Disclaimer: The above signal is given by automatic trading system developed by me and I shall not be responsible for any loss occurred.

NF CMP : 6141

and the area between 6261-6064 ?? no trade zone ?

 

[pannalal]

Nifty Future closed on 25th October at 6151.55.

On each day, it gives signal both for buy (long) and short (sell). Whichever occurs on the day, you need to execute, otherwise no trade.

As per this system, there will be only 150 to 180 transactions in 5 years. So, on an average only 2.5 to 3 trades per month. Trade means complete trade (either buying and selling or selling and buying).

 

[pannalal]

Timepassji,

I shall give this strategy every day but signals will materialize only 3 to 4 times in a months. So, number of trades will be very limited.

Based on my testing for last 5 years on NSE, BSE and 21 other stock exchanges, I believe, if you follow the system without deviation, you are expected to gain 1000 points in a year just by trading one lot.

However, Number of Winning Trades were 70 and Number of Losing Trades 93. But, overall, points gained in 5 years were 5280. If you analyze on monthly basis, Number of Winning Months were 40 and Number of Losing Months were 16. No trade took place in 4 months.

I hope I have made myself very clear.

Disclaimer: The signals are generated by program developed by me and I shall not be responsible for any loss occurred. To be on safe side, you can do paper trading for few months.

Note: Anyway, all the members here are highly experienced and I am novice in the field, so they will take sufficient care while doing trades.

 

[pannalal]

Thanks for sharing your hard work with all ! The results you have posted are for which "index" ? Is it for any one or an aggregate of All NSE Indices?

It is for NSE CNX Nifty.