Hello ,
I intend to set up an Options Credit spread in the first week of every month , and let it remain for the four weeks till expiry. The spread breakeven point being either 4% above or below than the current value.
How do I determine , whether I should choose a bearish spread or bullish spread.
What are the strongest ways to determine with reasonable certainty , that the market would not fall further 4% from the current value OR rise further 4% from the current value at the end of the fourth week.
This would probably involve the most fundamental technical analysis / how about factoring in other information like historical deviations / current affairs / international trends etc ? Also will Open Interest / Other Options related data provide indications.
Basically , for the coming 4 Weeks - how to BEST determine whether bearish or bullish is the trend / expectation.
I intend to set up an Options Credit spread in the first week of every month , and let it remain for the four weeks till expiry. The spread breakeven point being either 4% above or below than the current value.
How do I determine , whether I should choose a bearish spread or bullish spread.
What are the strongest ways to determine with reasonable certainty , that the market would not fall further 4% from the current value OR rise further 4% from the current value at the end of the fourth week.
This would probably involve the most fundamental technical analysis / how about factoring in other information like historical deviations / current affairs / international trends etc ? Also will Open Interest / Other Options related data provide indications.
Basically , for the coming 4 Weeks - how to BEST determine whether bearish or bullish is the trend / expectation.