Nifty Sense of Direction - 4 Weeks Duration

Hello ,

I intend to set up an Options Credit spread in the first week of every month , and let it remain for the four weeks till expiry. The spread breakeven point being either 4% above or below than the current value.

How do I determine , whether I should choose a bearish spread or bullish spread.
What are the strongest ways to determine with reasonable certainty , that the market would not fall further 4% from the current value OR rise further 4% from the current value at the end of the fourth week.

This would probably involve the most fundamental technical analysis / how about factoring in other information like historical deviations / current affairs / international trends etc ? Also will Open Interest / Other Options related data provide indications.

Basically , for the coming 4 Weeks - how to BEST determine whether bearish or bullish is the trend / expectation.
Forced to Bump this.

Any pointers please.

How to best see a bullish or bearish trend for a period of the coming 4 weeks.
Accordingly set up a options credit spread with the breakeven point at 4 - 5% above/below the current price.

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