Nifty Positional System - Using Intrady Charts

#1
Hello Friends!!

I am new to forum and since I want to share what I have, what I like & how I trade with all the legendary & fellow members.

I am into technical trading since last 1 year and learnt almost everything reading books and surfing forums containing technical analysis and systems by experts. What I liked most is the Moving averages. I lost a quite before learning TA. I decided to back test some the strategies on different parameters and different time-frames. Invested almost 3 months in finding out best system that will fit my style.

Finally, I found out better system to trade S&P CNX Nifty Futures. Since everyone knows that trading in Nifty is easy but getting profit out of it is really difficult. Following is my method of trading which I follow since last 3 months and which is working well for me. I have tested this on some frontline stocks with good volatility, and there too it worked excellent. But I prefer to trade in only one instrument i.e. NIFTY FUTURES.

Basic Setup 15 Minute Intraday Chart with minimum 30 days data backfill.
Indicators 5 Days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) & 21 DEMA. Optional Swing Setting with 0.10% setting for easy reference of Tops & Bottoms.

Strategy Will go long when 5DEMA crosses 21 DEMA from below and will exit long as well as go short when 5DEMA crosses 21 DEMA from above. Simple System, thats it! Please note that you will always carrying Long or Short positions once you entered in to the trade. If first trade is Go Long, Buy 1 Lot of Nifty and when there is reversal sell 1 lot which you are long and sell one more lot as a Short sale.

Stop Loss There is in built stop loss in the system. You need to c/fd your positions till next crossover happens. Hence you will be with the market and with the on-going trend, just before it reverses. Also note that since markets are always volatile, you will get whipsawed very easily. Do not worry, system is back tested and you will surprise to see that maximum loss was just 83 points and consecutive loss (in 6 trades) was 231 points.

Profits Well before following this practically, I did mock trading for 1 month and found excellent response from my strategy. However, practically doing overnight positional trades very initially difficult and I was getting carried always by analysts on TV channels. But as I decided stick to the charts and that paid me off. After 2-3 initial loss trades I got big profit and my account size started getting bigger.


It would be advisable to follow basic money management rules. Like I did, I started with initial capital of Rs 1, 00,000 and traded 150 Nifty at a time. No less and No more. Money management is crucial part of any strategy.

Also one thing is very important that do not close your positions on anticipation. It kills your profits as I have experienced that market moves against general predication. Do not predict market; be with it, wherever it goes.


Following is a summary of My Trades.

NO. OF TRADING SESSIONS 90
TOTAL TRADES 66
AVERAGE TRADE PER SESSION (R/OFF) 1
WINNING TRADES 26
LOSING TARDES 40
GROSS GAIN 3,012.33
GROSS LOSS 1,679.38
AVG GAIN PER TRADE 115.86
AVG LOSS PER TRADE 41.98
NET PROFIT 1,332.95
HIGHEST PROFIT IN A SINGLE TRADE 590.26
HIGHEST LOSS IN A SINGLE TRADE 82.83
CONSECUTIVE PROFIT TRADES 3
CONSECUTIVE PROFIT 693.27
CONSECUTIVE LOSS TRADES 6
CONSECUTIVE LOSS 231.47

I am also attaching my Trade summary in separate excel file. It will clear all doubts. Also note that there is some slippage cost, when there is a massive movement in Futures premium and discount overnight.

Brokerage Cost is taken as 0.05% + 0.02% statutory cost and same is calculated double i.e. 0.14% as normally trades are covered on the next day and resulting in to both side brokerage.

Since I am a new to technical trading my stategy may contain some weak points. I request all of the veteran members to go thru and advice me something I can improve for the benefit of all.

Thanks & Regards,
Dipesh
[email protected]
 

ag_fx

Well-Known Member
#2
You take out the first trade from the system..And you wouldnt have been able to do 150 NF for more than 3 trades thereafter.

Money Management needs to be looked upon in this. Also,I believe using MAs for positional trading using intraday time frame is not a good idea. One gap against your position and you would not only be killed, but left out of the reversal trade too.

MAs are powerful tools to trade, but I will not endorse this MA crossover system.

Just my 2 cents.

Good Luck.
 
#3
Dipesh,

3 months data is not sufficient to analyse a particular strategy. I would suggest you test this on atleast 3 years data to see how it works on longer timeframe.

Overall on 3 months it looks good one to trade but the results of 3 years might be different. I could help you out with the intraday data if you need.

Vikas
 
#4
Thanks Vikas.

I am currently having only 100 days intraday data for the software I am using (IRIS - Provided by spidersoftware) . Secondly, whole uploading only 90 days data in the software my PC gets almost hanged. Dont you thing 3 years data will create probs for PC to run.

Also Vikas, I am willing to buy Tradestation, but do not find any authorise vendor here in India. Can you help on Tradestation please ?

- Dipesh
 
#5
You take out the first trade from the system..And you wouldnt have been able to do 150 NF for more than 3 trades thereafter.

Money Management needs to be looked upon in this. Also,I believe using MAs for positional trading using intraday time frame is not a good idea. One gap against your position and you would not only be killed, but left out of the reversal trade too.

MAs are powerful tools to trade, but I will not endorse this MA crossover system.

Just my 2 cents.

Good Luck.
Thanks Ankit for going thru the system and your views. Just to clarify that System was long before Election results and got 590 NF points (also got more than 150 pts on 2-3 occastions - 27/5/09, 6/07/09, 14/07/09) Anyways, Currently I am facing problem of uploading 3 years data. I want some better software, if you can suggest. I am using IRIS Provided by Spidersoftware.

Thanks.
Dipesh.
 
#6
Dipesh,

For tradestation, you would have to open a account with tradestation and it is primarily used for US mkts.Tradestation support realtime eSignal data feed but then you must have OwnData which converts the eSignal feed to tradestation format.

For indian mkts, first you have to choose a vendor for realtime data and then go for the compatible charting software for the data feed.

Vikas
 
#7
Thanks Vikas.

I am currently having only 100 days intraday data for the software I am using (IRIS - Provided by spidersoftware) . Secondly, whole uploading only 90 days data in the software my PC gets almost hanged. Dont you thing 3 years data will create probs for PC to run.

Also Vikas, I am willing to buy Tradestation, but do not find any authorise vendor here in India. Can you help on Tradestation please ?

- Dipesh
Hi dipaarti,

Based on intraday tf it not advisable to go for positional trading. One gap up or down against ur position will wipe out ur capital.

Also back testing will be complete only if it is done for atleast 1000 days. :lol:
The last three months we are in bull market and hence ur backtesting is complete only for the bull market. While backtesting u need to test for all kind of markets before coming to conclusion. I have been trading this strategy on EMA's for past 10-12 months. This strategy works good in both bear and bull markets. It gives a lot of whipsaws in the consolidation phase. This strategy works good as u go to higher time frames. Use this on EOD charts and back test to see the results.

This strategy can be used for intraday trading along with the combination of other techniques with strict moneymanagement rules.

Regards,
Siri
 
#8
Thanks Siri for your update. Here in india we have big problem of back-dated data. Since I am using software called IRIS (provided by Spidersoftware),and have data of last 3-4 months only. I have requested them to provide me data of past 2-3 years. Lets see if they can provide the same or not. If I will get data, I will back-test them with the same strategy and will update the result here.

Regarding Money Management rules, I will say its applicable every where, whether you trade EOD or Intra. I am happy that I am bias free trader and can swing along with my signals.

Thanks once again.
Dipesh.
 

balaj78

Active Member
#9
hi
Iam bala from chennai . Iam planning to buy iris spider software .u have mentioned that u are using this software ,can u tell me how good is this ,is it easy to use .
 
#10
Hi Bala,

IRIS is working excellent. Basic requirement of this system is Nifty Intraday Data. I am using another software called FALCON, since IRIS is not providing me F&O data on real time basis. I will advice you to Buy Falcon rather then IRIS, only if you want to trade on my system.

Otherwise in Many ways IRIS is best compared to Falcon.

- Dipesh
 

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