Nifty nothing to Do but to Dip

[dilipbgr]

Why Nifty to dip? The reasons are:

1. On 11th Feb 09, appearence of Hanging Man followed by confirmation sign of downtrend when nifty closed below the real body of Hanging man on 12 Feb 09.

2. Buy on rumours and sell on news funda will be completed after Interim Budget tabled on.

3. Bullishness on Bad News - IIP figures were below market expectation.

4. Rising open Interest in Call/-Put Options

5. Low volume says excessive participation of operators

I believe, chart tells everything. Be cautious while initiating a long position.

Be alert. Its my short term view. Donot assume market to dip for ever.

What do you think? Lets for this week.

 

[iKon]

The direction is pretty much clear...
2300 levels...and then a brief medium erratic rally till election,
and ,god forbid, if election verdict is hung parliament then well below 2000

 

[dilipbgr]

friend,
For near term, it seems that nifty is resilient to dip 2700. I think the current F&O expiry will be in the range of 2850-2550. More 3 days will tell the region of nifty level.

however, it is most likely that bulls have not tired and will take the nifty to 2800-2850, from where they will be exhausted.

 

[praveen taneja]

Dow Jones is nose diving at the speed of 100pts per day. next major support in dow is seen at 6500-6410 range. it may come over a week or a couple of months.As all mkts following US nifty too will run behind it but after expiry thats why OI is so high in 2200 put

 

[dilipbgr]

Yes friend, it is inevitable that nifty will march forward towards 2200 or even lower. And, all the markets will follow Dow, Nasdaq & S&P at a some point of time. The reason behind it is that US Dollar is mother of all currencies. It is also very true that China is up and up since beggining of the year despite other markets down and down.

This is the hope, we are hunging on.

In order to make an inverted double top, our market should reach 2200.

In view of current trend and short term view, I expect that the market will go up for 2-3 days and then it will move down. The reasons of my expectation are:

1. Many have been sitting on short position. On feb expiry, these short positions will be wind up.
2. There is a slow stream of rate cut.
3. After some down days (last week) in almost all the indices, they will reacted with some up rally.

What you think??

 

[Capricorn]

The title of this thread makes me think of the nifty more as a doughnut than an index aka

Dunkin donuts

 

[praveen taneja]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...t-2600-may-hold-Nifty/articleshow/4162244.cms
Kindly hav an eye on it too

 

[iKon]

friend,
For near term, it seems that nifty is resilient to dip 2700. I think the current F&O expiry will be in the range of 2850-2550. More 3 days will tell the region of nifty level.

however, it is most likely that bulls have not tired and will take the nifty to 2800-2850, from where they will be exhausted.

agree with you for near term...

for mid term, i base my pessimism on :

1. FIIs are still withdrawing money from the markets...they are relentlessly shorting...without their money, nifty cannot hold 1500+ levels.

2. We are moving INTO a deepening global recession not OUT of it.

3. Supposed 'strong' support at 2720-30 levels will evaporate when panic sets in...if dow continues to slide.Nobody can say with certainty that we have found a bottom.

4. stimulus packages world over have not helped in improving sentiments...their physical impact,if any, will take several months to become visible

 

[iKon]

friend,
For near term, it seems that nifty is resilient to dip 2700. I think the current F&O expiry will be in the range of 2850-2550. More 3 days will tell the region of nifty level.

however, it is most likely that bulls have not tired and will take the nifty to 2800-2850, from where they will be exhausted.

agree with you for near term...

for mid term, i base my pessimism on :

1. FIIs are still withdrawing money from the markets...also they are relentlessly shorting...without their money, nifty cannot hold 1500+ levels.

2. We are moving INTO a deepening global recession not OUT of it.

3. Supposed 'strong' support at 2720-30 levels will evaporate when panic sets in...if dow continues to slide.Nobody can say with certainty that we have found a bottom.

4. stimulus packages world over have not helped in improving sentiments...their physical impact,if any, will take several months to become visible.

 

[Czar]

Since everyone thinks Nifty has nothing to but dip the market refuses to dip...

EVeryone seeing dow & playing India must be not seeing the fact that dow has made a new low & India is still 20% away from its last bottom ???/