NIFTY FIFTY

[joy_verma]

The down scenario is well drummed into our heads by the media and a few members here as well.

well it is satisfying to get out at top and enter a bottom . But still we are not
out of woods completely . Though I am fully invested from 8800 levels and
will be having a hard look at my trades
Regards,
vinay

 

[rahulg77]

Retracement levels can be calculated using closing highs and closing lows or intra-day highs and intra-day lows. The retracement level should be calculated from a significant high to a significant low.

Dear Traderji,

It was enlightening reading your writeup about retracement levels. Out of all these levels which levels have you seen working most number of times. With so many levels as mentioned by you our prices would touch the levels everyday. I know this is a combination of all three theories explained by you but which levels would you consider most important.

Also if a move goes beyond 100%. Like in the case of sensex/nifty it might not be a retracement/pull back. It might cross 12600 mark this time. Are there levels above that. How to calculate those levels.

Regards

Rahul

 

[AMITBE]

The down scenario is well drummed into our heads by the media and a few members here as well.

well it is satisfying to get out at top and enter a bottom . But still we are not
out of woods completely . Though I am fully invested from 8800 levels and
will be having a hard look at my trades
Regards,
vinay

Hi Vinay, nice to see your post here.
You are right, we are not out of the woods by a long margin.
I have been writing in support of the current rally that got terminated last night.
The bounce off the days low at 2846 on June 19 to close at 2916 had given a firm clue of this rally.
The post is here:
http://www.traderji.com/48135-post1548.html
http://www.traderji.com/48140-post1550.html

However, now this is done with and its time to test strength lower down, if this rally should continue going ahead.
Its to be noted that these are corrective moves only, in either direction in order to find and build a strong base.
The bull run has been badly impacted and would take much consolidation now.
It would be several weeks before clarity on an up-move emerges.

To look at a few important marks lower now:
The immediate levels are 2961-2937-2925-2913 and Id be happier to see these being successfully tested, as that would fulfill a TA need.
The lowest margin to retain safety is 2889-2865.
Below these levels the current rally would be negated and deeper levels wold be found.
This is not just for today.

For intraday at this point the line would be 2972-2965-2957-2953-2945-2937-2932.
3004-3009 are crucial.
A close at or about 2932 is all Im hoping for.

For the record, to the up 3004-3009 must be held.

 

[rahulg77]

Dear Amitda,

I was just reading through some articles and I came across martin prings site. I read an article there and most of it went over my head too much of TA involved. Levels I have not touched yet. Thought it might be of interest to u and other members here as to why he thinks US market might turn bearish. http://pring.com/articles/archive1.htm

Rgds

Rahul

P.S- And if you find the article worthwhile, you could explian it in easier words.

 

[adilsaleem]

India Shining - Whats the good news?? ... Todays market has beaten all of us

 

[pkjha30]

India Shining - Whats the good news?? ... Todays market has beaten all of us

Yes Europe is green so market now feels comfortable.
Besides, good corporate results.
Pankaj

 

[gvnarendra]

hello amitbe,

today was a stunning move up.with f&o expiry coming next week medium term players might have covered their shorts today.it crossed the 38.2% retracement level without any effort.that would really boost the sentiments of many.but does the upward looking wedge formation on the chart have any concern?does that indicate retesting of some critical supports?

regards,
gvnarendra.

 

[AMITBE]

......I have been writing in support of the current rally that got terminated last night.
The bounce off the days low at 2846 on June 19 to close at 2916 had given a firm clue of this rally.
The post is here:
http://www.traderji.com/48135-post1548.html
http://www.traderji.com/48140-post1550.html

However, now this is done with and its time to test strength lower down, if this rally should continue going ahead.
Its to be noted that these are corrective moves only, in either direction in order to find and build a strong base.
The bull run has been badly impacted and would take much consolidation now.
It would be several weeks before clarity on an up-move emerges.



To look at a few important marks lower now:
The immediate levels are 2961-2937-2925-2913 and Id be happier to see these being successfully tested, as that would fulfill a TA need.
The lowest margin to retain safety is 2889-2865.
Below these levels the current rally would be negated and deeper levels wold be found.
This is not just for today.

For intraday at this point the line would be 2972-2965-2957-2953-2945-2937-2932.
3004-3009 are crucial.
A close at or about 2932 is all Im hoping for.

For the record, to the up 3004-3009 must be held.

If I were perverse I'd say I told you so...but nah!

Sure the lower levels were successfully tested at 2920 area, and the close...well that's another story. It's closed a good hundred points above where I had hoped...at 2932!
Makes you want to eat your words.

The rally continues and yesterday this was written:

So, in other words, all this jumping around doesnt quite fit the bill in an intermediate bear market does it.
We have to see a stop on these gaps in both directions to be able to enter a transitory phase which would eventually lead the markets out of the woods.

But then, the market has its own mind/wisdom, or the lack of it.
It is its own historian.
Every passing day is merely a humdrum, routine page from that history book.

Im not going to attempt any levels today except to point out some important landmarks:
The Nifty at 2923 is holding just below the 200 DMA mark which is at 2926.
The 200 EMA mark is at 2938.
The 20 EMA mark is at 2956.
Then from my data and turning points, 2936 is one.
Then above 2962, the road leads to 2980.
Then above 3004, the levels to look for are 3025 and 3032.

So now another tryst with an important levels has been made with the close above 3032.
Now 3065 stands in between here and 3121 and more.

In the above post 2889-2865 was the area mentioned below which this rally would be negated.
That area is now being raised to 2925-2937.

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Amitbe

I told you so

Keep posting

It has so much value.

I believe this bear thing will be done for by end of the month. Then a period of consolidation will follow,not because of bearishness but people would like to cover their losses and rise will be met with supply. Once this is absorbed at levels mentioned in your posts , we will be firmly on our way to the target. No doubt about that.

Does it indicate euphoria on the part of lay investor. may be. But having been associated with this forum I am cautious .

Pankaj

 

[amitt29]

Hi All.
Todays close is very interesting.If it holds on Monday,we may see 3150 shortly.
Bya.