Nifty Analysis

vagar11

Well-Known Member
#1
Data Tested from 2-Aug-2010 to 29 July 2016.

Is gap up a good buying opportunity?
Among the tested 1503 trading days, Nifty gapped up 761 times.
The total of close-open comes out -26454 points on those 761. It's not a good decision to buy on gap up, we should look for short opportunity.

HISTOGRAM

Bin Frequency
-180 15
-160 3
-140 7
-120 29
-100 24
-80 51
-60 65
-40 115
-20 134
0 891
20 83
40 46
60 19
80 12
100 4
120 2
140 1
160 0
180 0
More 0


Among the tested 1503 trading days, Nifty gapped down 742 times.
The total of open-close comes out -19798 points on those 742 days. It's a good decision to sell on gap down.

HISTOGRAM
Bin Frequency
-180 2
-160 2
-140 7
-120 12
-100 27
-80 47
-60 73
-40 93
-20 126
0 911
20 98
40 58
60 27
80 11
100 6
120 0
140 1
160 0
180 0
More 0
 
Last edited:

vagar11

Well-Known Member
#4
Tested Data from 18/9/2007 to 18/11/2016
2279 Trading days

PDH = previous day high
PDL = previous day low.

Nifty crossed the PDH.
1208 days it crossed the PDH. Among those 1208, 691 days it closed above the PDH.
But, in all 1208 days , the sum of close-PDH is 10921.
So, its good to trade the breakout of PDH.


Nifty crossed the PDL.
1083 days it crossed the PD low. Among those, 605 days it closed low.
Sum of PD low-close is 14113. But, we should look for failure too. One day it was -416 points.

It shows if nifty crosses the pdh/pdl it will close in that direction for 55% of the days.
 

vagar11

Well-Known Member
#5
Is it a good idea a buy on gap up days ?

Among 2279 days, nifty gapped up by more than 20 pts. for 472 days.
The sum of close-open for those days is -1445.

Is it a good idea to sell on gap down days ?
Gap down 227 days. Among those 227 days, 116 days open-close was positive.
Sum of open-close for those 227 days is -39.
 

vagar11

Well-Known Member
#6
Does market follow the previous day ?

1068 days market closed on positive side. 516 days followed.
1173 days market closed negative. 626 days followed.

I tried checking if nifty closed more than +40 and +60. Did the next day followed ? Same result only 50% days.

If we see all the figures so far, we came to see that markets are fairly balanced this way.
 

vagar11

Well-Known Member
#7
When does market make high?

09 represents time from 09:15 to 10:00
10 represents time from 10:00 11:00

HTML:
Count Time 
 404 09
 101 10
  73 11
  67 12
  86 13
 176 14
 297 15
Majority of the time markets make either in the morning or in the evening.

When does market make low?
HTML:
 319 09
  93 10
  85 11
 126 12
 114 13
 213 14
 252 15
It's interesting to know these stats. Don't know how can we take advantage of these figures.
 
Last edited:

vagar11

Well-Known Member
#8
Some stats from Charles07.

Nice thread on stats, though still finding out how to make use of it in Actual trading.
Cannot post on ur thread so just sending u this msg.

Simple Stats of Nifty (2007 - 2016)
If Nifty opens within PDR, it has 50% probability of closing within the range
If Nifty opens abv PDH, it has 60% probability of closing abv PDH
If Nifty opens blw PDL, it has 60% probability of closing blw PDL

If Nifty opens above PDC, 60% probability of closing above PDC
If Nifty opens below PDC, 60% probability of closing below PDC
 
#9
If Nifty opens abv PDH, it has 60% probability of closing abv PDH
If Nifty opens blw PDL, it has 60% probability of closing blw PDL

If Nifty opens above PDC, 60% probability of closing above PDC
If Nifty opens below PDC, 60% probability of closing below PDC
So, basically, there is a 60% chance of the session being a trending day ??
 

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