Disclaimer: These are my personal musings and only meant for entertainment, not as trading advise. The links for the relevant charts are below this post.
As suggested on Friday, the Nifty opened below the low of Friday, and straightaway tanked to around 2880. For a memory refresh, click here.
For the last few days, the Nifty is playing in two major congestion zones of 2870 and 3040. For ease of identification, I have marked them out on the chart. I also follow the minor trend for the Nifty, and we can see that the index has tested both, the lower as well as the upper ends of the down channel.
For the whole of last week, we have seen the Index trending down. It is also apparent in the supports and resistances chart. Possibly, the minor trend has turned for the positive, as of now. A rough thumb rule to devise for it should be; that the Nifty must not trade below todays low around 2880, and should continue to make higher tops, above the 3000 levels.
Looking at the negative sentiment prevailing in the market, it could just continue positive till the end of this week. In any case, we are just three trading sessions from the expiration of this derivatives settlement. Therefore, it is a foregone conclusion that volatility will rise even more.
Till we see evidence of a higher top and a bottom being established, selling on rises could be a better trading strategy.
In any case, those among us who have bought at higher levels could get an opportunity to exit.
