Need help understanding if my strategy is really working

#1
Hello Everyone,

I am in a dilemma. I have been paper trading my strategy since 8 months now and have got really good results. I started real trading a month back. I strictly follow my strategy and take trades according to my system but this month seems to be giving me consecutive losses. This never happened in last 8 months. Is my strategy really working or is it just a trading phase/ loosing streak that will soon pass away? Anyone who has experienced this kindly advise.
Thank you
 
#2
As I read somewhere recently, "No battle plan survives first enemy contact".

All that paper trading is fine, a great practice, but when you want to actually trade, start small, check if the strategy actually works. If yes, then scale it up, otherwise back to the drawing board.

Need more details. Which timeframe, which scrip, quantity, which segment (EQ, FNO, CDS etc.).
 

ocil

Well-Known Member
#3
This year most of the time our market is an uptrend. If you are trading in any stocks may be that stock in a consolidation phase now. so your strategy gives losses. make sure u have a strategy for the consolidation phase.
Hello Everyone,

I am in a dilemma. I have been paper trading my strategy since 8 months now and have got really good results. I started real trading a month back. I strictly follow my strategy and take trades according to my system but this month seems to be giving me consecutive losses. This never happened in last 8 months. Is my strategy really working or is it just a trading phase/ loosing streak that will soon pass away? Anyone who has experienced this kindly advise.
Thank you
 
#4
Hello Everyone,

I am in a dilemma. I have been paper trading my strategy since 8 months now and have got really good results. I started real trading a month back. I strictly follow my strategy and take trades according to my system but this month seems to be giving me consecutive losses. This never happened in last 8 months. Is my strategy really working or is it just a trading phase/ loosing streak that will soon pass away? Anyone who has experienced this kindly advise.
Thank you
Is getting good results in a backtest is a guarantee for good profit
IMO, it is a big NO
One may or may not get real profit in real trades, but no guarantee.

As timepass bro, said it also depends on many other factors.
Moreover, it depends more on your trading psychology, your hope factor, your fear factor etc etc.
 
#5
As I read somewhere recently, "No battle plan survives first enemy contact".

All that paper trading is fine, a great practice, but when you want to actually trade, start small, check if the strategy actually works. If yes, then scale it up, otherwise back to the drawing board.

Need more details. Which timeframe, which scrip, quantity, which segment (EQ, FNO, CDS etc.).
I tried trading with small money for about a month and was quite comfortable..but nov has given me the biggest losing streak that i havent got in past 3 years of backtest.
I trade in banknifty futures and timeframe would be 30 min.
 
#6
Is getting good results in a backtest is a guarantee for good profit
IMO, it is a big NO
One may or may not get real profit in real trades, but no guarantee.

As timepass bro, said it also depends on many other factors.
Moreover, it depends more on your trading psychology, your hope factor, your fear factor etc etc.
I agree we cant completely rely on backtested data. But a loosing streak that i got this month has never happened in past 3 years of backtested data. So i am a bit confused as to is it usual to have loosing streak and shall i continue trading this system.
 

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