My System - My trades.

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
@XRAY27 bhai-
OBV-PDC in 3tf is different than OBV-PDC in 1tf?
PDC -means Previous days close value, it will remain same irrespective of your trading time !!!
 

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
Last edited:

Tuna

Listen and act, don't ask it, it doesn't oblige
I have done manual back testing on basic OBV system. EMA 200/OBV crossover & vice versa on 5 mins charts.
best signals to trade comes only when crossover happens.
but one need to be very patience as 3-5 signals in month only & as a tendency we want to trade daily
Well it I did it for 8 years of data ( dont ask me to post it, too difficult to , don’t have the patience like Kumudhan Bro).

Obv crossover is a nice strategy but, like any other strategies, one will never know which one will be the big one. Timeframe matters as well.

Best timeframe I found was 15 mins both for NF and crude. But caution - there will be years (u read it right) ur return will be in negative, considering you are following OBV crossover without second guessing yourself. And this is where many of us will give up and start looking for another system.

I guess after optmization crude return was around 6k points since last 6 odd years.

The issue is system is under performing between 2013 to 2014 and again 2016 mid till date range.

It is showing good back test result based on the meat it got during the crash of crude since 130 USD level to 40 . Since then market is ranging between 40 and 56 .

Same applies to NF which is on Modi rally since 2014.

Please note , I am talking about a BLIND MECHANICAL SYSTEM which knows nothing but programming rules of crossover of OVB emas.

Verdict - you have to really look for long term with good Money managment to come out with profit. And never take a mechanical system without backtest in a programming way. Our Psy will always glue our eyes to trending move which happened in history. It is chopzone where we will be hit.

I never was mechanical, even with a 14 years of programming backgrounds, it took me close to 3 months, some 100s of backtesting, validation, discarding and revaluation of the system to find if it is tradable.

Always focus- where it will go wrong, how worse it could be, when it will turn profitable.

All mechanical system (I tested) performs poorly in time frame lower than 5 mins. You have no other way but to scale down size and move to higher TF ( as SL will be big) , if you want to trade a mechanical system.

Crude in 5 mins TF on OBV cross I guess gave -2k profit in some 2000 plus trades. Where as It gave almost 5700 points profit, I guess in less than 800 trades in 15 mins TF.

Another thing we should not forget the -rollover premiums on future contracts when backtesting. Typically month to month data is glued to create the continuous future data, but on the day of expiry, there is a gap between last month and new month price and volume. It may as small as 20 points but when u test for a duration of 10 odd years - it is 10 X 12 X 20 - huge. It can influence the backtesting result immensely.

Still never ever perform visual backtesting.
Either trade discretionary or mechnical.

Dont wear a burkha while doing cabaret (no intention to hurt any religious sentiments).

So if you want to to trade as per your liberty of entry exit - ur choice. But if you trade a system - entry and exits are not ur choice.


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