My System - My trades.

[varunkochhar]

Sanjay ji because the level zero is not there in your charts. Just scroll your chart and you will find the line there. The lowest levels on your charts visible are +4.2 Million.

 

[singsanjay09]

Ys Varun ji got it, but whole day today's obv of crude is in positive in my chart.I think it is becos data defference.

 

[varunkochhar]

More about my favourite indicator OBV and its usage.
If you go thru this chart I know i have compressed it too much. You will find 2 lines one green and the other red at the top (these are the highs and lows of today) and another set of red and green lines at the bottom (These are the highs and lows of OBV for 31-1-2017 one day prior to the budget). Now how do you define an uptrend. An uptrend is a series of higher lows. Now watch the OBV line with respect to the 200EMA line (Blue line). It is very clear to see that we are in an uptrend in OBV as indicated by this chart. The first sign of a halt in trend would be when we go below the lowest pivot low before the last crossover above 200EMA. Till then no shorting as per this chart. The highs and lows of the previous day provide very good counter trend trades till not breached convincingly. They very often provide the turning point of the day. It is like you can use these 2 lines as a channel. Also see how clean the movement was after we went above the high line of 31-1-2017 on budget day. A Good breakout.

 

[natjay]

Hello Varun ji,

Posting an image of Silver for your input and advice.

How do you trade a candle that meets all the rules but forms with a big spike?

E.g., yesterday in Silver (which is a high-ATR instrument), prices and OBV were below 200EMA the whole day. Then at 7pm, the 1min candle breached 200EMA with a huge spike and at the same time, OBV too went above 200EMA, making this the trigger candle (Candle A marked in the image).

Basically, in 1 minute, the candle had run up about 275 points, making a new high for the time and also going above the visible pivot.

Since prices were moving too fast, I waited for it to come back down to 200EMA (Candle B) and then took a trade at the high of Candle A.

Was this the right thing to do, or should I have taken the trade at Candle B itself that closed above 36EMA (the purple line)?

Also, should the SL have been at the low of Candle B or Candle A? Prices fluctuated a lot and came close to the SL at the low of Candle B before going higher. If SL were at the low of Candle A, then it would have been too far away from the entry point (around 275 pts).

Basically, I'd like to know how you trade big spikes specially when all conditions are met but the range of the trigger candle is high resulting in a higher SL allocation.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your insights.

 

[varunkochhar]

Nat jay ji we always know our stops before entering any trade. If the stop loss is too large i do not take the trade. I would have been pre-emptive if i traded this instrument and would have keyed in my bid 1 or 2 rupees above the 6:48 high of around 41650 as my stop was well defined of around 50 rupees (as i can see from the charts). And i could have taken profits at say 100/150 prefixed levels or trailed with 36EMA like you have posted. The reason i would have jumped the gun was it because technically when your order got filled you would be meeting the criteria of the trade. Price above 200EMA.

 

[varunkochhar]

It is a double edged sword. Sometimes waiting for the candle to close makes the stop very big and sometimes you get stopped out because of not waiting. One has to take a call individually for that.

 

[dreammerchant]

Hello Varun ji,

Posting an image of Silver for your input and advice.

How do you trade a candle that meets all the rules but forms with a big spike?

E.g., yesterday in Silver (which is a high-ATR instrument), prices and OBV were below 200EMA the whole day. Then at 7pm, the 1min candle breached 200EMA with a huge spike and at the same time, OBV too went above 200EMA, making this the trigger candle (Candle A marked in the image).

Basically, in 1 minute, the candle had run up about 275 points, making a new high for the time and also going above the visible pivot.

Since prices were moving too fast, I waited for it to come back down to 200EMA (Candle B) and then took a trade at the high of Candle A.

Was this the right thing to do, or should I have taken the trade at Candle B itself that closed above 36EMA (the purple line)?

Also, should the SL have been at the low of Candle B or Candle A? Prices fluctuated a lot and came close to the SL at the low of Candle B before going higher. If SL were at the low of Candle A, then it would have been too far away from the entry point (around 275 pts).

Basically, I'd like to know how you trade big spikes specially when all conditions are met but the range of the trigger candle is high resulting in a higher SL allocation.

Thanks in advance and appreciate your insights.

First of all yesterday there was a US Non farm payroll data at 7pm, this kinda event driven moves can't be predicted easily and wouldn't follow any technicals, some times it'll hit us from both sides...

DM

 

[varunkochhar]

DM ji i donot trade this instrument so i cannot comment. I just looked at the chart and gave my 2 cents. In a lot of 5 Kgs a stop of Rs.50 would have resulted in a loss of Rs.250 and even at Rs100 profit it would have resulted in Rs.500 profit. That is a 1:2 RR. I would have taken it anyways (Remember i am a gambler). I take it a 100 point move in silver is not at all rare. But then you can accuse me of curve fitting.

 

[varunkochhar]

Looking back at the chart, we did not get 1 but 3 opportunities to get our 100 rupees in the next 1 hour without our SL getting breached.

 

[dreammerchant]

DM ji i donot trade this instrument so i cannot comment. I just looked at the chart and gave my 2 cents. In a lot of 5 Kgs a stop of Rs.50 would have resulted in a loss of Rs.250 and even at Rs100 profit it would have resulted in Rs.500 profit. That is a 1:2 RR. I would have taken it anyways (Remember i am a gambler). I take it a 100 point move in silver is not at all rare. But then you can accuse me of curve fitting.

Varun ji, I didn't mean to offend u, what I intended to say to natjay is, analysing yesterday's 7pm chart of silver or gold wouldn't be of any use because it's event driven, it's better if we check the same chart in a non event day....

DM