My picks from a 5 year perspective (2020)

[rkkarnani]

Housing loan cos. like Gruh, Repco, now L&T Fin also entering this area..... I think should be in a good Portfolio with so much present Governments focus on this sector!

 

[sanjayau]

Your list of Stocks is good! Only stock I am apprehensive is Tata Tele ! My personal opinion : The only thing positive about the share is that it has the name TATA in it.(And its at its life time low which is almost one tenth of its high.) Fact is I never could understand about the share holding of TTML and its Business area etc.etc. I bought it around 28+ and exited at ~<18/- in Jan 2011. I did buy because of the hype of the Name of this stock in the market at that time, the stock had dropped from ~60+ to ~ 15 and was rising,thinking its the Company that has the Tata Group's Telecommunication business. It was only later I could gather that it is actually a subsidiary of Tatateleservice Ltd which is not a listed entity !
If you can share your reason for selecting this stocks in the list that has some BIG names, I would be pleased to add some quantity in my portfolio again!

This is how i selected my portfolio:
I started with a recommendation from ICICI long term recommendations and in this phase i bought voltas, taj gvk , cesc, TTL. For these ones i did not do any due diligence. Then i stopped following them and though to myself i will buy any famous name who did well from 2000 to 2008 and not so well from 2011 onwards which mirrors the economic growth in India . This because 2002 - 2008 was a period when India grew at an average of 8%. 2009 - 2010 was not good years as examples because everything fell because of GFC. So i looked at long term graphs of many famous companies and bought those who have falledn considerably after 2011. Many of these rose after 2014 election of Modi government , so i only bought those who have corrected in last NIFTY fall from 9000 to 8300. This is the reason there are no pharma companies in my portfolio coz they are at life time highs mostly , but of they fall i might add them. And as i said in my previous posts i do not have failth in India IT industry as it is all driven by Outsourcing and Visa frauds. India is still not a service economy in true sense , although it might become one by 2020. Also i do not like minerals, oil and gas (any thing commodity based) Although i have added Reliance as it is just such a famous business and looking at its last 5 years it doesnt seems to correct any further , so i didnt think of waiting for more downside. Also Reliance hires some of the best engineering talent in country , they will do good in long run i thought. My trading philosohpy is simply to buy good names that are cheap. Please comment on my views and correct me if u think a correction is needed. I do like ur suggestion of L and T finance as it has good brand name associated

 

[rkkarnani]

This is how i selected my portfolio:
I started with a recommendation from ICICI long term recommendations and in this phase i bought voltas, taj gvk , cesc, TTL. For these ones i did not do any due diligence. Then i stopped following them and though to myself i will buy any famous name who did well from 2000 to 2008 and not so well from 2011 onwards which mirrors the economic growth in India . This because 2002 - 2008 was a period when India grew at an average of 8%. 2009 - 2010 was not good years as examples because everything fell because of GFC. So i looked at long term graphs of many famous companies and bought those who have falledn considerably after 2011. Many of these rose after 2014 election of Modi government , so i only bought those who have corrected in last NIFTY fall from 9000 to 8300. This is the reason there are no pharma companies in my portfolio coz they are at life time highs mostly , but of they fall i might add them. And as i said in my previous posts i do not have failth in India IT industry as it is all driven by Outsourcing and Visa frauds. India is still not a service economy in true sense , although it might become one by 2020. Also i do not like minerals, oil and gas (any thing commodity based) Although i have added Reliance as it is just such a famous business and looking at its last 5 years it doesnt seems to correct any further , so i didnt think of waiting for more downside. Also Reliance hires some of the best engineering talent in country , they will do good in long run i thought. My trading philosohpy is simply to buy good names that are cheap. Please comment on my views and correct me if u think a correction is needed. I do like ur suggestion of L and T finance as it has good brand name associated

Nice way to choose, may not give you excellent returns but would keep your capital safe! Though personally I feel BIG names are not enough, you need to look beyond that at their working , management , growth etc. ! Tata Steel , as per me is a good stock, but its not like get and forget stock! It may not erode your capital in long run but gives heart ache in interim period! When I sold TTML in I took position in Tata Steel , around that time only ~580 or so and briefly saw a high of 650 and then a low of below 200/- 2013 end or 2014 early! It was near a striking distance of my entry price last year around this time and I exited in small loss! So more due diligence would surely help get better returns! I will surely enter Tata Steel again when it starts to go up and wont hold it like forever stock, and exit in decent profit! Its no longer my Portfolio stock that I hold on to for years!
One can have judgement error also in this as I did in Titan, I exited in a hurry when Gold import restrictions were imposed by RBI and Titan crashed and remained for weeks near 200 to 220 level and it has doubled from there in around 18 to 20 months! This is another stock I like to add on declines!

Never invested in them, but just a few months back Sugar stocks were at LIFE TIME LOWS ! Whats your view on them?

 

[sanjayau]

Nice way to choose, may not give you excellent returns but would keep your capital safe! Though personally I feel BIG names are not enough, you need to look beyond that at their working , management , growth etc. ! Tata Steel , as per me is a good stock, but its not like get and forget stock! It may not erode your capital in long run but gives heart ache in interim period! When I sold TTML in I took position in Tata Steel , around that time only ~580 or so and briefly saw a high of 650 and then a low of below 200/- 2013 end or 2014 early! It was near a striking distance of my entry price last year around this time and I exited in small loss! So more due diligence would surely help get better returns! I will surely enter Tata Steel again when it starts to go up and wont hold it like forever stock, and exit in decent profit! Its no longer my Portfolio stock that I hold on to for years!
One can have judgement error also in this as I did in Titan, I exited in a hurry when Gold import restrictions were imposed by RBI and Titan crashed and remained for weeks near 200 to 220 level and it has doubled from there in around 18 to 20 months! This is another stock I like to add on declines!

Never invested in them, but just a few months back Sugar stocks were at LIFE TIME LOWS ! Whats your view on them?

I am sorry but i dont have knowledge on sugar stocks. But happy to discuss more as i have recently learn how to do dicounted cash flow analysis . May be we could try that to see if those stocks are well priced. Regarding ur comment about TATA Steel for example. I understand ur pain but dont u think that u were caught in the wrong cycle of a cyclical company? i mean i was not even in stock markets before so i dont have same stories but for a cyclical this is the right time IMO. Coz the larger fundamental analysis is that India is a bottom of a multi year bull run. Whatver happened in 2011-2014 will be totally reversed now IMO if economy grows at 9%. I believe the next 5 years will be like 2002 - 2008 . If u check any cyclical they have dome amazing in this period (Tata steel went from 40 to 900 !) So that is why i am buying companies that every one has shunned because of economic mess created by UPA II but will hopefully bounce back as term of Modi government ends.

Here is a disclaimer , i have only come to stock markets for first time (even though i have experience with currency trading and have invested in NIFTY index in the past) . So my theories are very theoretical . Only time (2020) will tell , how i went. But one thing is clear i will choose companies in such a way that i dont have to sell ever in next 5 years . Whatever happens i will hang onto them.

 

[sanjayau]

I will surely enter Tata Steel again when it starts to go up and wont hold it like forever stock, and exit in decent profit! Its no longer my Portfolio stock that I hold on to for years!

So what are some of the large / famous / MOATS names that you will hold forever at CMP or at some correction? I like ur previous suggestions by the way and will look into them.

 

[rkkarnani]

So what are some of the large / famous / MOATS names that you will hold forever at CMP or at some correction? I like ur previous suggestions by the way and will look into them.

Hmm, I have these in Portfolio and will add more at right time:

Asian Paints
Reliance
Gruh
Repco
L&T Fin
Page
Granules
Praj (actively tracking it)
Coal India
BEL
Tata Steel (considering after reading your Post)
Tata Motors entered recently
Maruti (holding from lower levels)
AshokLey Very small qty from level of ~19/- But shall relook now.
PIIND
HDFC
HDFC BANK

Am confused about Rel Power!

I am zero in Fundamental analysis! Always seek guidance from others.
BTW, there is a member here who talks a lot about FA, maybe you can interact with him. Forgetting his ID : ! "Ghanisht" something ???

 

[rkkarnani]

It was ghanisht_nagpal ! Do an advance search for his Posts

 

[sanjayau]

Hmm, I have these in Portfolio and will add more at right time:

Asian Paints
Reliance
Gruh
Repco
L&T Fin
Page
Granules
Praj (actively tracking it)
Coal India
BEL
Tata Steel (considering after reading your Post)
Tata Motors entered recently
Maruti (holding from lower levels)
AshokLey Very small qty from level of ~19/- But shall relook now.
PIIND
HDFC
HDFC BANK

Am confused about Rel Power!

I am zero in Fundamental analysis! Always seek guidance from others.
BTW, there is a member here who talks a lot about FA, maybe you can interact with him. Forgetting his ID : ! "Ghanisht" something ???

Thanks for the member ID.
Thanks for the heads up on Reliance Power , it is so cheap! Looking at its history 2008 was an IPO mess year and after that this company just couldnt do well during whole UPA II regime. But it "might" do good business now that Modi government is going big on renewable and by 2022 is aiming for 20 GW solar power by 2020. It would be a gamble but i am feeling like i should gamble on this company coz it is Reliance Brand and they will pull up something when economy is growing at 9 %.
As for your portfolio it is quite good IMO that u have big names and also some small names that you are confident about.

Are you going to add to these companies or look for new ones for ur new capital? I am trying to follow Warren Buffet's advice that do not focus on more than 20 companies that is another reason i only have famous names as well.