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topic I agree with CV 100% about testing. Before moving on to the 'next system' did you check why the first one failed? I don't think one can go on like that for ever! and then say 'nothing works!' That is self defeating
I'm no expert but I do wish to disclose my viewpoint.

There is a difference between the following:
1) Losing, and losing on a consistent basis
2) Building your own trading system and choosing other's systems
3) Using a trend follower and a zig zag indicator
I understand your dilemma but you have to understand the fact throughly that no one will put out stuff that actually works in public. That would be utter disrespect of ones work IMO. Books and courses are just a starting point , there is a whole lot of testing and real time feedback that is required to understand market dynamics.And you know what it takes time and lots of it for anyone to 'get it'. This is not a game where you can dabble and expect great results.So dont lose heart and be patient! It will click eventually.
Your feelings have an immediate impact on your account equity. You may have a brilliant trading system, but if you feel frightened, arrogant, or upset, your account is sure to suffer. When you recognize that a gamblers high or fears is clouding your mind, stop trading. Your success or failure as a trader depends on controlling your emotions.

When you trade, you compete against the sharpest minds in the world. The field on which you compete has been slanted to ensure your failure. If you allow your emotions to interfere with your trading, the battle is over.

You are responsible for every trade that you make. A trade begins when you decide to enter the market and ends only when you decide to take your self out. Having a good trading system is not enough. Most traders with good systems wash out of the markets because psychologically they are not prepared to

5 Trading Tips-

-Remember that there is always another trader on the other side of the trade doing the exact opposite that you are doing. Only one of you can be right.

- Waiting around for the perfect trade or the perfect opportunity will guarantee that you never trade stocks.

- Trading stocks is about probabilities, NEVER certainties. You are not smart enough to predict, with consistency, what will come next.

- Conventional wisdom is usually wrong. Trade against the crowd, not with them.

- Money, trade, and self management has always been and will always be the holy grail to trading stocks.
So,my friend,if you really wish to succeed at this(that's step no 1 actually,do you really have that burning desire to succeed and make the necessary sacrifices)........if you therefore wish to succeed,you have to take all the blame for it.Every time you lose because you didn't adhere to your rules,the blame is not the market's,not this forum's,not your wife's,not TA's or FA's.......yours and yours alone.Go back to your methods,your money management disciplines,your entry and exit criteria,your mind,your health......somewhere,there's a problem that you need to look into and rectify.

Been there,done that,my friend........ I can understand the frustration and agony.But don't allow your mind to settle for petty excuses.......take all the blame and look into what needs to be rectified.

And,as for people successfully making money out of TA.......There are many in this forum itself who are doing it.And as said before,if one person can do it,it can be done.

Whether you want to make the necessary sacrifices and undergo all the pain required is another question.

I hope
And another thing to remember about Freecell.....particularly....That Every Game Can Be Won....I am sure you will develop some observing skill....thereafter, one can practise in terms of paper trading sitting in front of a Brokers Terminal....believe me, you can reach a stage......whereby you can trade with 99.5% accuracy...without even having to look at any kind of trading software but have to keep tabs on what is happening around the world politically...economically...& blah blah.......(Key to this development is Patience & power of observing & rest shall come quite easily
There are external indicators that are as powerful (& on a given day more powerful) than the indicators on the charts.

Your fantastic success reinforces my belief that an analytical background is most suitable for a Technical trader - helps in the assembly of otherwise isolated components and also troubleshooting, fine-tuning of the assembly and/or one or more of its individual components
As a tecnical trader , i can say that each and every set up has its pre defined stop los levels and targets, and a tecnical trader is discipined to obey those levels.
Not a single set up can give you a 100 % winners but following tecnicals one can make nice trades with risk managments.
Remember the tecnicals are following the markets, and tell us the current situations of a prevailing market conditions, they tell us a new trend is about to start of a trend is still in continuations, but it is not always that the trend follows technicality.
There are so many different factors that work on financial markets movements.
With sound tecnical analysis and a proper trading plan with predefined stop loss , one can trade at ease and can come out a winner on a long run
Being Right and Making Money Are Not Equivalent by Dr Van Tharp

How important is it for you to be right? Let's say I could guarantee that you would make money by the end of the yearlots of moneybut you would probably lose money on 90% of your trades. Would you like that? Could you tolerate that? Would you accept that? Most people would probably answer "no" to all three questions. And if that is you, you probably are denying yourself the opportunity to make money simply because being right is more important than making money.

Some of you might be saying, "How could you be wrong 90% of the time and still make money?" The solution goes back to the golden rule of trading, "Cut your losses short and let your profits run." Let's say that 90% of your trades lose money and that your average loss is $100. On the year you make 100 trades so you end up losing 90 of them for a total loss of $9,000. However, let's also say that your average winning trade is a big R-multiple. It's an R-multiple of 100 or a $10,000 winner. You have ten of those in a year, so you end up making $100,000 on your winning trades. If you subtract your winnings from your losses, you'd end up with a profit of $91,000 at the end of the year. You make $91,000, yet 90% of your trades are losers.

My guess is that 99% of the trading population could not trade a system that would produce those kind of results. The reason is because they don't get to be right enough. They have too many losing streaks. They have losing streaks that are longer than five in a row. Most people cannot tolerate long losing streaks. When they occur, they totally abandon what they are doing. In such a system you could easily have 25 consecutive losses. At that point you become certain that your system is broken, and you try something else.
Let's look at the opposite end. Suppose you got to be right 90% of the time. Suppose your average win was $100 and that your average loss was $2,000. This means that you'd have a total of $9,000 in winnings and $20,000 in losses. You would lose $11,000. Would people trade that system? Yes, they would. They would probably trade it for a number of years until they went bankrupt. Why? Because they get to be right most of the time and that is very rewarding.

You might be saying, but how could people possibly tolerate losses of $11,000 after 100 trades? It is easy; they turn the losing trade into a long-term investment in their mind and say, "it's only a paper loss." For example, I've had workshop attendees who were probably way above average in terms of sophistication. However, I asked them to raise their hands if they had an investment in their portfolio that was only worth 50% or less of what they paid for it. Eleven people raised their handsover a fourth of the class. And my guess is that among the overall population of investors, most people are sitting on a number of big losers, hoping they will come back. Why? Because they cannot stand to be wrong on an investment and they are waiting to be right on those losing trades.

What is the cost of having losing investments in your portfolio? It's major. First, you are using valuable capital up with nonproductive investments. Second, you are missing many good opportunities.

Why Being Right Seems So Important
There are two primary reasons why we focus on being right. First, we are conditioned to be right by the school system. Second, everyone in the trading industry gives people what they wantways to be rightwhich tends to perpetuate the myth. Let's take a closer look at these two reasons.

First, we are conditioned by the school system to the importance of being right. In school you are taught that there are right answers and wrong answers. What is a right answer? If you learned how to survive in the system, you learned that a "right" answer is whatever the teacher wanted.

Your performance is measured periodically through tests in which you are asked to pick the right answer. If you cannot get more than 70% right on the test, you are labeled a failure and ostracized. Your humiliation might even be in public in front on all your friends. And if your humiliation isn't public, it certainly is semipublic. Your "poor" performance goes home in the form of a grade with a comment that "Johnny is a little slow or Johnny is bright, but he just doesn't try." Usually, at this point, the most important people in your young life get involvedyour parents.

Even if you understand the system and work hard to know the right answers, you still might be taught that your performance is not good enough. It usually takes 94% right to get an excellent grade. But how many children go home and show their 94% test to dad only to get the response, "Why didn't you get 100%?"

Thus, it is no wonder that traders want to be right all the time. And being right usually costs them dearly in terms of profits. Whether you've been through 20 years of schooling and have a graduate degree or less than 10 years of schooling, you still have the same conditioning about being right.

The second reason people want to be right is that service providers for traders and investors feed the bias to be right. First, software vendors tend to provide systems that can be highly optimized. Once you've optimized your trading, you can lay a line over the prices and see exactly where you should have bought and sold. It seems obvious. However, the same optimized system does very poorly when applied to the real world.
Be right 75% of the time AND
Let your winners run their course

The probabiity of both increases if you do not overtrade.

Also one has to be very careful about stop-losses. While they may be your saviour with losers they may also cut you short with your winners.

Be as fussy as you want to be with your picks and entries (Refine your system till it returns no more than 10-12 picks) but once you've made your pick have some faith in the +ve expectancy you have associated with it.
There are only two types of traders
Volatility Traders
Directional Traders

Directional trading is ofcourse hard but its harder when you are uni-directional. Do you get the hint?

Let me make it a bit more clear - In a multi-variate dynamic medium you cant rely on static horizontal levels without factoring in the 'dynamic' part. That was the last hint
Trading is a performance-oriented discipline. Stress and mental pressures can affect your ability to function and impact your bottom line. Much of what has been learned about achieving peak performance in both business and sports can be applied to trading. But before looking at some of these factors, let's first examine the ways that trading differs from other businesses.

Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.

There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader's profitability. Each day is a clean slate.

The traditionally 8-5 work ethic doesn't apply in this business! A trader could sit in front of a screen all day waiting for a recognizable pattern to occur and have nothing happen. There is a temptation to take marginal trades just so a trader can feel like he's doing something. There's also the dilemma of putting in constant hours of research, having nothing to show for it, and not getting paid for the work done. Yet if a trader works too hard, he risks burn- out. And what about those months where 19 out of 20 days are profitable, but the trader gives it all back in one or two bad days? How can a trader account for his productivity in these situations
you were to invest time, energy, and emotion into developing a business venture and backed out at the last minute, it would be considered a failure. However, you should be able to invest time and energy into researching a trading idea, and yet still be able to change your mind at the last minute. Market conditions change, and we cannot be expected to predict all the variables with foresight. Getting out of a bad trade with only a small loss should be considered a big success!
What IS the definition of a successful trader? He should feel good about himself and enjoy playing the game. You can make a few small trades a year as a hobby, generate some very modest profits, and be quite successful because you had fun. There are also aggressive traders who have had big years, but ultimately blow-out, ruin their health or lead miserable lives from all the stress they put themselves under.
Principles of Peak Performance
The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc. Floor-traders scratch dozens of trades during the course of a day, but all that matters is whether they're up at the end of the month.

Don't think about TRYING to win the game - that goes for any sport or performance-oriented discipline. Stay involved in the process, the technique, the moment, the proverbial here and now.! A trader must concentrate on the present price action of the market. A good analogy is a professional tennis player who focuses only on the point at hand. He'll probably lose half the points he plays, but he doesn't allow himself to worry about whether or not he's down a set. He must have confidence that by concentrating on the techniques he's worked on in practice, the strengths in his game will prevail and he will be able to outlast his opponent
The second principle of peak performance is confidence. in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed. Some people are naturally born confident. Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up. There's also the old-fashioned "hard work" way of getting confidence. Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies. Put in the hours of backtesting. Tweak and modify the systems so as to make them your own. Study the charts until you've memorized every significant swing high or low. Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.

Concentrate on the technical conditions. Have a clear game plan. Don't listen to CNBC, your broker, or a friend. You must do your own analysis and have confidence in your game plan to be a successful trader.

Analyze the markets when they are closed. Your job during the day is to monitor markets, execute trades and manage positions. Traders should be like fighter pilots - make quick decisions and have quick reflexes. Their plan of attack is already predetermined, yet they must be ready to abort their mission at any stage of the game.

Just as you should put winning out of your mind, so should you put losing out of your mind - quickly. A bad trade doesn't mean you've blown your day. Get rid of the problem quickly and start making the money back. It's like cheating on a diet. You can't undo the damage that's been done. However, it doesn't mean you've blown your whole diet. Get back on track and you'll do fine.

For that matter, the better you are able to eliminate emotions from your day, the better off you will be. A certain amount of detachment adds a healthy dose of objectivity
Trading is a great business because the markets close at the end of the day (at least some of them). This gives you a zero point from which to begin the next day - a clean slate. Each day is a new day. Forget about how you did the week before. What counts is how you do today!

Sometimes what will happen during the day comes down to knowing yourself. Are you relaxed or distracted? Are you prepared or not? If you can't trade that day, don't! - and don't overanalyze the reasons why or why not. Is psychoanalyzing your childhood going to help your trading? Nonsense!

The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it's impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you've dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you've done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.

Good trades don't always work out. A good trade is one that has the probabilities in its favor, but that doesn't mean that it will always work out. People who have a background in game theory understand this well. The statistics are only meaningful when looking at a string of numbers. For example, in professional football, not every play is going to gain yardage. What percentage of games do you need to win in order to make the playoffs? It's a number much smaller than most of us are willing to accept in our own win/loss ratios!
Here is an interesting question: should you look at a trade logically or psychologically? In other words, should every trade stand on its own merits? Theoretically, yes, but in real life it doesn't always work that way. A trader is likely to manage a position differently depending on whether the previous trade was a winner or a loser.

How does one know when to take profits on a good trade? You must ask yourself first how greedy do you want to be, or, how much money do you want to make? And also, does your pattern have a "perceived profit" or objective level? Why is it that we hear successful winning traders complain far more about getting out of good trades too soon than not getting out of bad trades soon enough? There's an old expression: "Profits are like eels, they slip away."

Successful traders are very defensive of their capital. They are far more likely to exit a trade that doesn't work right away than to give it the benefit of the doubt. The best trades work right away!

OK. Realistically, every trader has made a stubborn, big losing trade. What do you do if you're really caught in a pickle? The first thing is to offer a "prayer to the Gods". This means, immediately get rid of half your position. Cut down the size. Right off the bat you are taking action instead of freezing up. You are reducing your risk, and you have shifted the psychological balance to a win-win situation. If the market turns around, you still have part of your position on. If it continues against you, your loss will be more manageable. Usually, you will find that you wished you exited the whole position on the first order, but not everyone is able to do this.
At an annual Market Technician's conference, a famous trader was speaking and someone in the audience asked him what he did when he had terrible losing trades. He replied that when his stomach began to hurt, he'd "puke them at the lows along with everyone else." The point is, everyone makes mistakes but sooner or later you're going to have to exit that nasty losing position.

"Feel good" trades help get one back in the game. It's nice to start the day with a winning scalp. It tends to give you more breathing room on the next trade. The day's psychology is shifted in your favor right away. This is also why it's so important to get rid of losing trades the day before. so you don't have to deal with them first thing in the morning. This is usually when the choice opportunity is and you want to be ready to take advantage of it.

A small profitable scalp is the easiest trade to make. The whole secret is to get in and get out of the market as quickly as possible. Enter in the direction of the market's last thrust or impulse. The shorter the period of time you are is the marketplace, the easier it is to make a winning trade. Of course, this strategy of making a small scalp is not substantial enough to make a living, but remember the object is to start the day out on the right foot.

If you are following a methodology consistently (key word), and making money, how do you make more money? You must build up the number of units traded without increasing the leverage. In other words, don't try going for the bigger trade, instead, trade more contracts. It just takes awhile to build up your account or the amount of capital under management. Proper leverage can be the key to your success and longevity in this business. Most traders who run into trouble have too big a trade on. Size influences your objectivity. Your main object should be to stay in the game.
Most people react differently when they're under pressure. They tend to be more emotional or reactive. They tense up and judgement is often impaired. Many talented athletes can't cut it because they choke when the pressure's on. You could be a brilliant analyst but a lousy trader. Consistency is far more important than brilliance. Just strive for consistency in what you do and let go of the performance expectations.

Master the Game
The last key to achieving mental mastery over the game is believing that you can actually do it. Everyone is capable of being a successful trader if they truly believe they can be. You must believe in the power of belief. If you're a recluse skeptic or self-doubter, begin by pretending to believe you can make it. Keep telling yourself that you'll make it even if it takes you five years. If a person's will is strong enough, they will always find a way.

If you admit to yourself that you truly don't have the will to win at this game, don't try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they'll enjoy trading when they really don't. It's boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.

After my out bursts on TA kind advice i received was as follows

- TA is a tool to pick LOW RISK trades
- TA by itself is not a saviour
- Position sizing, Stop losses, Exit method are important to stay in the game
than right entry
- Staying in the game will bring wealth in due course
- There is no readymade formula for making wealth. It is observance, gut
feeling, attitude which requires
- It is not technique that is required but strategy, that will win the game
TA is a tool to pick LOW RISK trades

Av - Technical analysis just points out to the possibility of price action in the have to look for evidence, cross verify, go to the past and future...AND THEN DECIDE whether the probability of occurance AND the CHANCE of FAILURE fits within your RISK - REWARD ratio. Using different forms of money management with different account sizes, what my be suitable risk reward to you, may not be suitable to me. There are nothing like UNIVERSAL low risk trades...then everybody would have taken that and the trade would immediately move away from its base making it a higher risk one.

- TA by itself is not a saviour

AV- It is just a study of crowd behavior through price actions, that shows important pointers to POSSIBLE future behavior

- Position sizing, Stop losses, Exit method are important to stay in the game than right entry

AV - WRONG, WRONG and WRONG. From experience, Entry is the most important thing. A good entry means the trade immediately moves into your favor. Thats half the battle won already. Then comes your other parts. The way you have emphasized is because lot of experts/authors emphasize like that as most traders do not think about those things. They are very important and saves your account from a faster probability of ruin, but they are not more important than entry. IF THEY WERE, systems would have generated trades randomly with just position sizing and money management and exits and in the long run, they would have won.
Staying in the game will bring wealth in due course

Av - Nothing can be further from the truth...staying in the game and learning to play it correctly will improve you r probability of winning. NO GUARANTEE OF AUTOMATIC wealth if u just hang on.

- There is no readymade formula for making wealth. It is observance, gut feeling, attitude which requires

Av - Incomplete sentence? Anyways, it is method, mind and money management (however you interpret it), and nothing else.

- It is not technique that is required but strategy, that will win the game

Av - Did not understand this one. ANyway if u have the best strategy, but do not have the right execution, no one cansave u. BOTH are required

Everything starts with a Theory - an idea, a hypothesis and then progresses through an iteration of experiment, verification, refinement and finally produces a set of rules/laws
And i can bet u, every fundamentaly strong company also fall. So called Fundamental investors are badly stuck in Sugar stock. Where as technical ppl wud hav exit at say a 5-10% loss. Not 50% or more.

the problem is that they start with earnings FY06 and then gradually go to earnings FY08 and 09 to justify buys...otherwise how can they ever be there in a momentum driven market...

oxy, they have their lines ready..the'll say "we told u so...valuations were expensive...its the technical analysts who told you to buy on stupid logic".

actually on a personal note, its a combination of technicals and fundamentals that truly provide trading signals. look at marty zweig's work..he has shown that some of the bear markets have started after changes in CRR, PLR etc. now he has charted them and correlated them with market indices...does that also become "stupid" technical analysis whereas all these funda guys study macro factors and come up with utter crap...the best being after 15 days "i told u so" and "i was expecting this".

BVP, the problem with half cooked fundamental analysts (as with some "half cooked" technical analysts,particularly "half cooked" pattern traders) is that these guys hear new terms such as "PE ratio" and "cost of capital" etc and try to show their subjective intelligence by relating these factors with historical market movements..."MANUALLY" (with literally no help from a computer). Putting it in simple words, they do this after the fact...a post mortem analysis. Their buy and hold profit in a bull market phase makes them more (rather, over) confident on their analysis, not realizing it is pure "luck".
As an author rightly put it, "Anything that cannot be programmed into a computer and backtested with reasonable historical data isn't wrong. It is worse than is meaningless. There is no logic behind it and it goes purely by faith. This stands where prayer and witchcraft for curing diseases stood before medicine was introduced
Building the Perfect Master Plan
What are the components of a good trading plan? Here are 10 essentials that every plan should include.

Skill assessment - Are you ready to trade? Have you tested your system by paper trading it and do you have confidence that it works? Can you follow your signals without hesitation? If not, it's a good idea to read Mark Douglas's book, "Trading in the Zone", and do the trading exercises on pages 189201. This will teach you how to think in terms of probabilities. Trading in the markets is a battle of give and take. The real pros are prepared and they take their profits from the rest of the crowd who, lacking a plan, give their money away through costly mistakes.

Mental preparation How do you feel? Did you get a good night's sleep? Do you feel up to the challenge ahead? If you are not emotionally and psychologically ready to do battle in the markets, it is better to take the day off - otherwise, you risk losing your shirt. This is guaranteed to happen if you are angry, hungover, preoccupied or otherwise distracted from the task at hand. Many traders have a market mantra they repeat before the day begins to get them ready. Create one that puts you in the trading zone.

Set risk level How much of your portfolio should you risk on any one trade? It can range anywhere from around 1% to as much as 5% of your portfolio on a given trading day. That means if you lose that amount at any point in the day, you get out and stay out. This will depend on your trading style and risk tolerance. Better to keep powder dry to fight another day if things aren't going your way
Set goals Before you enter a trade, set realistic profit targets and risk/reward ratios. What is the minimum risk/reward you will accept? Many traders use will not take a trade unless the potential profit is at least three times greater than the risk. For example, if your stop loss is a dollar loss per share, your goal should be a $3 profit. Set weekly, monthly and annual profit goals in dollars or as a percentage of your portfolio, and re-assess them regularly.

Do your homework Before the market opens, what is going on around the world? Are overseas markets up or down? Are index futures such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded funds up or down in pre-market? Index futures are a good way of gauging market mood before the market opens. What economic or earnings data is due out and when? Post a list on the wall in front of you and decide whether you want to trade ahead of an important economic report. For most traders, it is better to wait until the report is released than take unnecessary risk. Pros trade based on probabilities. They don't gamble.

Trade preparation Before the trading day, reboot your computer(s) to clear the resident memory (RAM). Whatever trading system and program you use, label major and minor support and resistance levels, set alerts for entry and exit signals and make sure all signals can be easily seen or detected with a clear visual or auditory signal. Your trading area should not offer distractions. Remember, this is a business, and distractions can be costly
Set entry rules This comes after the tips for exit rules for a reason: exits are far more important than entries. A typical entry rule could be worded like this: "If signal A fires and there is a minimum target at least three times as great as my stop loss and we are at support, then buy X contracts or shares here." Your system should be complicated enough to be effective, but simple enough to facilitate snap decisions. If you have 20 conditions that must be met and many are subjective, you will find it difficult if not impossible to actually make trades. Computers often make better traders than people, which may explain why nearly 50% of all trades that now occur on the New York Stock Exchange are computer-program generated. Computers don't have to think or feel good to make a trade. If conditions are met, they enter. When the trade goes the wrong way or hits a profit target, they exit. They don't get angry at the market or feel invincible after making a few good trades. Each decision is based on probabilities.

Keep excellent records All good traders are also good record keepers. If they win a trade, they want to know exactly why and how. More importantly, they want to know the same when they lose, so they don't repeat unnecessary mistakes. Write down details such as targets, the entry and exit of each trade, the time, support and resistance levels, daily opening range, market open and close for the day, and record comments about why you made the trade and lessons learned. Also, you should save your trading records so that you can go back and analyze the profit/loss for a particular system, draw-downs (which are amounts lost per trade using a trading system), average time per trade (which is necessary to calculate trade efficiency), and other important factors, and also compare them to a buy-and-hold strategy. Remember, this is a business and you are the accountant
Perform a post-mortem After each trading day, adding up the profit or loss is secondary to knowing the why and how. Write down your conclusions in your trading journal so that you can reference them again later.
Parting Notes
"No one should be trading real money until they have at least 30 to 60 profitable paper trades under their belts in real time in real market conditions before risking real money," says Novak.

Successful paper trading does not guarantee that you will have success when you begin trading real money and emotions come into play. But successful paper trading does give the trader confidence that the system he or she is going to use actually works.

The exercises in "Trading in the Zone" walk the trader through trading a system based on a simple indicator, entering the market when the indicator gives a buy and exiting when it gives a sell. Deciding on a system is less important than gaining enough skill so that you are able to make trades without second guessing or doubting the decision.

There is no way to guarantee that a trade will make money. The trader's chances are based on his or her skill and system of winning and losing. There is no such thing as winning without losing. Professional traders know before they enter a trade that the odds are in their favor or they wouldn't be there. By letting his or her profits ride and cutting losses short, a trader may lose some battles, but he or she will win the war. Most traders and investors do the opposite, which is why they never make money
Traders who win consistently treat trading as a business. While it's not a guarantee that you will make money, having a plan is crucial if you want to become consistently successful and survive in the trading game
I would not describe it as confidence or overconfidence as you put it, I would prefer 'Judgement & Experience' instead.
it works as good or bad as weather forcast.

price the best form of trade...its formless trading
normally..few can follow ..with discipline...
price roc...crossing an price 10dayma ROC ..derivative is good...
however...aroon continuation..validity of strength helps
.............1)keep your bets small
2)cut your losses short
3)let your profits run
4)follow the above rules with out question.
The two things I focus on in terms of method is always limiting risk/managing risk and compounding yield. We may agree on some of the strategies of entering and exiting trades, but the ONLY objective data i review and analyze is price, specifically macro price trends.

I'm just now getting into commodities with paper trades and have been able to translate my techniques from my stock and options trading with considerable success. But it requires patience and unattached, unwavering, unyielding, immovable determination. I liken it to the Terminator who in eveything he did, centered around negotiating the chief objective without vague, ambiguous, and oten eronious debate and reasoning. He was cold and calculating, always calculating mathematical probabilties as events unfolded. This is what I do and ....Forecasting ,having an opinion is great---great to write newsletters,great to present seminars,great to seem intelligent,great to make people feel one is an authority on the markets.Take a look at their records,one truly doubts if they are successful.The market is right...always right.The market is right when we think it should go in a particular direction.The market is right when it goes the other way.The market is never wrong.We are wrong if we went the wrong direction.One's opinion does not matter.To go with the flow of the market is everything........

Forecasting prevents vision.It prevents one from acting in the present because one's mind is rooted in the future.Once one is able to live in the present,one then gives up all resistance to the flow of the market.One then automatically takes stops and not go into hope
.................................................. ..........................
I often read the yahoo finance column (for USA) by Dave Landry. He is a great swing trader, and that is what I try to be too. He has a great strategy for exiting trades, and I like it a lot. He says that when you enter a trade, define the risk (i.e the distance between your entry and stop). If the trade is successful, lock in half your profit as soon as the trade moves in your favor by the amount equal to the risk level. After that move your stop to breakeven (I usually put it slightly above breakeven), and then use trailing stops. In this way, you can earn your daily bread and butter by ensuring some profits, and at the same time, in his words, "have the chance of all of your trades turning into a home run." However, one more advise from him that I follow. If the trade moves in your favor too fast, just take the profit and run. This is what I did when I entered Rel Cap some days ago at Rs. 172, and next day it touched 192. More than 10% profit in 1 day, so I locked it all.
Hope it
a definite profit is better than a possible larger profit.The strange thing about the mind is that when one takes regular small profits,the mind is lured into not accepting losses.....When that big fall comes,one then will refuse to accept it and goes into hope mode.To cut one's profits and let the losses run is destructive not only to one's account but
Really, the most complicated & tense decision for me to make when I have to exit a profitable trade. Tendency is to hang on in the hope of making that "some more", but for late-in-life traders like me (I am not 99
How to exit a successful trade!

Do you stay with your profitable trades as long as possible because the trend is likely to continue and make your profits even larger?

This is easy to understand but not so easy to do when real money is involved. The difficulty is that although your profit may become much larger if you stay with a trade, it may also decrease and even disappear. Human nature is such that it values a sure profit much more highly than the probability of a much higher profit. Thus, traders are inclined to take their profits too soon. This can be fatal to long-term success because big profits are necessary to overcome the inevitable collection of small losses.

There is a good way to let profits run while still guarding against the possibility that prices will turn around and take away much of your accumulated profits before the trend actually reverses. It is called a trailing stop. You include in your plan a method for moving an exit point along some distance behind your trade. As long as the trend keeps moving in your favor, you stay in the trade. If the market reverses direction by the amount of your trailing stop, you exit the trade at that point. You would also offset your trade and reverse position if the trend reversed.

One way to set a trailing stop is to protect a certain percentage of the accumulated profit. That will always insure that you keep some profit on a good trade

The Two Realities of Trading

There are two realities every trader must understand and accept before she/he can actually start trading for a living!

1) It Is Impossible to Predict Market Turns

It has become very common in the financial markets for analysts or "experts" to offer their "outlook", or predictions for various markets. In fact, it has become so common that many traders just assume that if so many people claim to be able to predict the future action of the markets, then it must be possible. Nothing could be further from the truth.

There are two great emotions at work in the markets - fear and greed. However, contrary to conventional thinking, greed is not always manifested as a lustful longing or need to make money. Quite often it is manifested in the form of "hope". And what could give a trader more "hope" than the belief that he may be able to know in advance what a given market is going to do? But, think about it for a moment. Can you think of any other endeavor where people can actually predict the future?

In order to be a successful futures trader, you must learn not to rely on predictions and forecasts. It is possible to find a person or committee or indicator or wave count which will occasionally offer a prediction which actually comes true. However, the fact of the matter is that there is no person, committee, indicator, or wave count, etc. which can consistently and accurately predict tops and bottoms in any market. It is simply not possible to do so on a regular basis
Once you free yourself of this notion, you open up your mind to the more important task of determining the current trend in a given market. In the long run, such knowledge will be much more useful than a thousand forecasts.

2) Losing Trades are a Natural Part of Trading

Novice traders have a great deal of trouble accepting the notion that losing trades are a "natural" part of trading. Yet, if you are actively "cutting your losses" on trades that don't go in your favor, a losing trade can actually be thought of as a positive step, because it is the act of consistently limiting your losses to a manageable amount which allows you to keep coming back to trade another day. While losing money on a given trade is not in itself a good thing, the very act of keeping each individual loss to a minimum is a necessary step in trading profitably over the long run.

When starting out, traders often shoot for a high percentage of winning trades, even though that generally means taking profits quickly and missing some big winners. More experienced traders come to realize that the percentage of trades which are winners is often a meaningless statistic. In the end, the only thing that counts is if the amount earned on winning trades exceed the amount lost on losing trades. As long as that is the case, it matters little if 3 out of 10 trades are profitable or if 7 out of 10 trades are profitable. The key is to make alot when you win and to lose a little when you lose
We have to move according to the market. Then only we can survive. We have to take the winning and losing trades sportively and control our emotions while trading which affects the judgement. Nobody can predict the market correctly over a period of long time. In the short term many predictions may come true. But the market has its own judgement
The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts,while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities.Take medicine for example.Apatient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest-and the anxious family members have only two questions:"Will he survive?" and "when can he go home?"They ask the doctor for a forecast.
But the doctor is not forecasting-he is taking care of the problems as they emerge.His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock,and so he gives him pain killersand starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood.Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs.After that he has to watch against infection.He monitors the trend of a patient's health and takes measures to prevent complications.He is managing -not forecasting.When a family begs for a forecast,he may give it to them,but its practical value is low.
To make money trading,you do not need to forecast the future.You have to extract information from the market and find out whether bulls or bears are in control.You need to measure the strength of the dominant market group and decide how likey the current trend is to continue.You need to practice conservative money management aimed at long term survival and profit accumulation.You must observe how your mind works and avoid slipping into greed or fear.A trader who does all of this will succeed more than any forecaster.
have come to the conclusion that trading is not an exact science. You can't do X and get Y every time. It is as much an art as it is anything else. There is no magic formula. Trading is all about probability. It is the art of correctly applying a set of carefully thought out rules and allocating the probability of that event to result in success.

Each trade is an independent event. The market does not remember if you lost or made money the last time you traded.

The way you approach the market psychologically has as much to do with your success as any trading plan.

Risk management is crucial if you want to have any hope of becoming a successful trader.

Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets.

An adequately funded account is necessary - not only to be able to take the trades you want, but also so you don't feel every trade is a live or die situation.

The journey to the road of successful trading will make you confront your deepest fears. Your armor on this journey will be confidence, knowledge and belief in yourself that you can achieve your dreams.

Never, equate your success or failure in the markets with who you are as a person!

How to Use Moving Averages

Here are just a few simple ideas for putting moving averages to work:

1) Only consider buying a stock if it is above your moving average. By definition, if prices are below the average they are trending down. One of the best pieces of advice I've read on this subject was from Trader Vic. He said

"When picking stocks, I never buy a stock when prices are below the moving average, and I never (short) sell a stock when price is above the moving average. Just pick up any chart book that uses a 35- or 40-week moving average and you'll see why -- the odds of being right are way against you.
Mind you, this is after Vic does all of his fundamental analysis on a stock. So even if the stock looks great fundamentally, he'll pass if it's below the moving average."

2) Use moving averages as an exit signal. Seriously consider selling a stock that closes below the moving average.

3) Consider buying stocks as they drop near an upward sloping moving average. You'll notice when looking at charts that stocks often find support (bounce off of) moving averages. Buying on a pullback to a MA will often give you a good risk/reward entry point. You can put a stop-loss order nearby in case you're wrong about the bounce
Nothing suceeds like success! I'm searching for a system which is not very much difficult to understand but can give returns in most of the occassions. It's all about money management. I was a customer,for three months only, of an expert who used to give calls on markets,and found that only his calls succeeded in almost 80% cases! What was the reason?
Well,he would give calls when he will feel that it's worth giving and not giving calls everyday,just for the sake of giving it! He may give one positional call in one week and may be more or no call at all. But the reason behind his success is that - he used to give calls when a stock is just a few rupee above its major support and the potential upsides left in the scrips are somewhere near to four times the difference to its stoploss level. So the risk reward ratio becomes 1:4 almost! If you take five calls in one month and lose one trade,the gain will make up handsomely the losses
Reason #1: Lack of a clear cut Trading Plan
__________________________________________________ ________

Along with under-capitalization this probably ranks as the
#1 reason traders fail. Beginning (and some more
experienced) traders will frequently be swayed by intraday
news and price action.

They may have started the day with a clear plan for the
day, but when the bell rings and the market starts they
lose focus and become mesmerized by the next tick as the
price action unfolds, alternately looking to buy or sell
every couple of ticks/minutes and getting whipped all over
the place.

A trading plan should give one criteria to measure trend
against and determine a direction to trade. Once the
direction has been decided the picture is significantly
clearer as one side of the market has been taken out of
consideration and one is free to focus on locating low
risk opportunities to enter in the direction of the trend.

The plan should address such things as:
- Criteria for Trend determination
- Criteria for recognizing Entry opportunities
- Risk Management / Stop placement
- Trade Management (i.e. how to determine when a trade
isn't working
- Profit objectives
- Exit strategies

__________________________________________________ ________

Reason #2: Overtrading - Trading round the clock
__________________________________________________ ________

The aforementioned lack of a trading plan coupled with
today?s lightning fast executions available through
electronic trading as well as the extended opening hours
for electronic trading get a number of traders in trouble.

When they see all the price movement and translate it into
dollar terms it is very easy to become impatient waiting
for good trading opportunities.

One may get caught up in the minute to minute fluctuations
to the point where he loses sight of the overall picture
and starts buying and selling every couple of minutes
(seconds even) to grab a couple of ticks, just because the
trading software is so responsive and the fills so fast
that he thinks he can get away with it.

We are so used to getting paid for our time in the real
world (i.e by the hour) that it is difficult to sit in
front of the screen patiently waiting for a trading
opportunity (that may or may not present itself for
another hour or two).

Seeing all this fluctuation the trader is tempted to
"hurry up and make some money" and take a couple of quick
trades to get paid for his time while waiting for the next
trade that qualifies under his trading plan, however
illogical that may sound.

Clearly, if the trader knew this type of trading to be
profitable, based on his research, he would have
incorporated it into his trading plan.

The very fact that it is not part of the plan should
eliminate such trades from consideration, but it is easy
to get bored and impatient and hard to resist forcing
things when the next trade is but a mouseclick away.

_______________________________________________In this installment we will explore how certain limiting
beliefs can affect your trading results and development as
a trader.

__________________________________________________ ________

Limiting Belief #1: Belief in Mechanical Systems
(THE best system, best hardware,
best software, best data etc).
__________________________________________________ ________

It never ceases to amaze us how people believe the process
of trading can be automated and all they have to do is
find a system that works - then they can kick back on the
beach with a pina colada in hand, call their trades in on
the cellphone and sit back to collect the checks.

To these individuals life becomes a never-ending search
for the "holy grail" of trading. They burn the midnight
oil looking for the ultimate oscillator that will make
them rich, sweating over the cleanest source of data,
which type of data is better, continuous or back-adjusted,
looking for the best trading execution platform, the best
charting software etc
In our observation these people are so wrapped up in the
mechanics and intellectual exercise of trading that they
never learn how markets actually work, i.e. that markets
are driven by fear and greed and emotional crowd behavior
and that price behavior cannot be reduced to a
mathematical algorithm.

These individuals might have been around the markets for a
long time and claim several years experience, but in fact
they've only had the same 1 year of experience several
times over, because they never learned from their
experience and kept on making the same mistakes.

While there are a handful of commercially available
mechanical systems that have decent track records and show
profitability over time the reality is that those systems
are what we call ?psychologically untradable'.

What we mean by that is that they frequently have large
drawdowns and those drawdowns may last for months. Most
people are not prepared to stick with such a system
through the drawdown and will usually abandon it near the
bottom of the equity curve before the system "gets back in
sync" with the market and moves to new equity highs
The thing most people miss when evaluating these systems
is that they underestimate how hard it is to stick with a
system through a drawdown period.

It is easy when looking at a track record, one will
"experience" the drawdown in a matter of minutes -
intellectually acknowledging that there is a significant
drawdown, but then the system invariably pulls out of it
and winds up being profitable for the year.

There is a world of difference between accepting a
drawdown on an intellectual level and then experiencing
that drawdown daily over a period of several weeks or even
months on an emotional level, wondering every day whether
this time the system has finally had it and may never pull
out of the "nosedive".

__________________________________________________ ________

Limiting Belief #2: Belief that Losses can be Avoided .
__________________________________________________ _______
Refusal to accept the fact that losses are an integral
part of the game and a belief that they can be avoided
leads to strange behaviors. This belief leads to
?paralysis by analysis' and problems pulling the trigger.

Trading is a game of probabilities. At any point in time
there is an X % chance that a move will take place as
anticipated, this means that conversely there is a (100%-
X%) probability that it won't!

When implementing a trading strategy one should be
cognizant of this fact and plan accordingly, i.e. not risk
more than Y% of capital on any trading idea/opportunity,
as there is always a certain probability that one is

Regardless of how good your method is, even if it can be
demonstrated to have 99% winners, you will still lose ALL
your capital IF you risk it all on every single trade.

Another fact to keep in mind is that wins and losses are
not evenly distributed and nicely packaged in a tidy
series (for the previously mentioned 99% winning system
that would mean a series of 99 wins, 1 loss, 99 wins, 1
loss etc.). Even a 99% winning system will occasionally
have several losses in a row.

This brings us back to the differences between
accepting/understanding things on an intellectual level
vs. an emotional level.

While traders may understand intellectually that losses
are a part of the game, they still want the particular
trade they are in at any given point in time to be a
winner and are prepared to add to their position, move
their stop as the market moves against them, or cancel it
altogether to help secure a positive outcome.

This behavior and belief leads to traders being forced to
eventually take losses that are significantly bigger than
allowed for in their trading plan.

__________________________________________________ ________

Limiting Belief #3: Belief that Every Move can be
Predicted / Belief in Missed
__________________________________________________ ________

Starting traders (and a number of experience ones :)
spend a lot of time fretting over missed opportunities.
They play the "would'a, could'a, should'a, wish I had'a"
game, kicking themselves over missing opportunities they
believe they could have taken advantage of.

Aside from being demoralizing and damaging to the psyche
this practice is an unproductive waste of time.
Frequently traders will also introduce as a reason for
taking a trade, information that wasn't known at the time
the move took place.

The fact of the matter is that trading is a game of
probabilities and at any given point in time a move may
happen out of nowhere that was totally unforeseeable.

Some people have estimated that there are 12-20 decent
swings in the S&P's in a week and that you are trading
like a pro if you catch 3-4 of them.
In this respect trading is similar to baseball, the guy
batting .300 is doing one heck of a job and gets rewarded

__________________________________________________ ________

Limiting Belief #4: Belief that more information is
better (leads to information
overload / 'paralysis by analysis')
__________________________________________________ ________

Traders are inundated with confusing information and
trading tips. It is everywhere, from the talking heads on
CNBC, to the news headlines flashing across the trading
screen to the online chatrooms, newsletters, hotlines etc.

How does one go about making sense of it all? The short
answer is: You don't need to make sense of it all to make
money from price fluctuations in the market! All that is
required is an understanding of crowd psychology and

A number of traders believe they need to gather ALL the
information AND understand it, because that's what we do
in the real world when faced with a decision. Once the
information is mastered the secret to successful trading
will somehow be magically revealed.

Nothing could be further from the truth! No matter how
much information you accumulate and sift through you will
NEVER have ALL the pieces to the puzzle - if you are
waiting for that you will never make a trade.

What is needed therefore is to develop skills for
decisionmaking under uncertainty, i.e. a keen
understanding of probabilities and the ability to assess
the risk involved and reward associated with different
trade outcomes.

A losing trade does not mean the decision to enter it was
wrong, it may have been, but it may also be a case of what
is referred to in statistics as: "Good decision, bad
outcome", i.e the odds favored a particular move, but the
move failed to materialize as expected.

The best advice for beginning traders is: Forget all the
conflicting information being disseminated out there. All
that is needed is a price chart.

Leave it to someone else to worry about all the news etc.
The market's collective assessment of that information is
reflected in the price action.

The fact of the matter is that everyone has the same set
of information to trade off of when it comes to prices and
the individual trader will never have the resources to
secure better information faster than the large brokerage
and proprietary trading houses.

All one needs to to is to learn to recognize their
"footprints" on the charts, as evidenced by chart



This second installment demonstrates that to succeed as a
trader you must be willing to accept the following facts
and observations:

- You must learn to understand how markets work and what
drives them. Trusting your hard-earned capital to a
mechanical system is a recipe for disaster as most traders
do not possess the intestinal fortitude to stick with such
systems through inevitable drawdown periods.

- You are never going to have all the information and
will be forced to act on incomplete information

- Not every move can be predicted. There will be
situations where your best laid plans are adversely
affected by random unforeseeable events.
As a result losses are an unavoidable, integral part of

Getting stopped out of a trade with a loss, contrary to
popular belief, is a good thing (assuming you have a
winning approach and solid trading plan) - It tells you
that your trade is not working and conserves your capital
for later use when another (hopefully better) trading
opportunity presents itself.

Am I committing any of these errors in my trading?
- Could they be contributing to the recent dive
in profits I've experienced?"
__________________________________________________ ________

Misconception #1: Under-Capitalization and
Unrealistic Expectations
__________________________________________________ ________

Some of the most damaging misconceptions and limiting
beliefs are planted in would-be-traders heads to entice
them to enter the industry, before they ever execute their
first trade.

The biggest one, by far, is that trading is easy and that
people can make obscene amounts of money within days of
starting out on the tiniest amount of trading capital.

While it is certainly true that the markets offer
unlimited potential and everyone has heard stories of
traders borrowing a couple of grand on a credit card to
get started, who subsequently went on to parlay that
into a small fortune.

The reality is that trading requires time, preparation
and sufficient start-up capital.

Starting out with too little capital and unrealistic
expectations sets would-be-traders up for failure
and is damaging in a number of ways, for example:

a) People who start on a shoestring are forced to take
on too much risk, and have a significantly greater
risk of ruin than better capitalized traders.

Someone starting out with $3,000 in the E-mini S&P?s
will have to risk $150 to $600 pr. trade, or 5-20% of
their equity on each individual trade. As a result
they will be ?wiped out? if they have a handful of
losing trades in a row.

Contrast this with someone trading the same approach
on a $10,000 account. Each loss will represent a
significantly smaller percentage of equity and they
will be able to weather the inevitable drawdowns that
occur from time to time.

Regardless of the approach employed, one should have
sufficient capital to be able to withstand at least
10 losing trades in a row and still continue trading.

The smaller the percentage of equity risked pr. trade,
the smaller the risk of ruin will be.

Research has shown that ideally one should not risk
more than 1%-4% of equity pr. trade.

b) Unrealistic expectations cause traders to discount
the progress they are making and lead them to ?force?
things to bring about the desired result.
As an example:

If you believe you 'should' be making $1,000 pr. day
pr. contract in the S&P?s when daytrading and find
that you are ?only? up $300-$500 by Wednesday after
trading for 3 days you will be unhappy with your

Instead of continuing to do what got you to that point
in the first place and winding up with perhaps
$800-$1,000 for the week you will start pressing,
pushing for trades, trying to make things happen,
taking questionable trades and giving back in the
process what you?d made to that point and wind up
maybe -$1,000 or more in the hole for the week!

In trading, as in any profession, it takes time to gain
sufficient proficiency and one must learn to crawl before
they can walk.

By being adequately capitalized and budgeting several
months to a year at a minimum to learn the basics of
this profession beginning traders give themselves the
best chance of succeeding.

__________________________________________________ ________

Misconception #2: Confusing Margin Requirements with
Capital Requirements
__________________________________________________ _______

One frequently hears starting traders talk about the
minimum margin requirements set by the futures exchanges
as sufficient capital needed to trade a particular

Beginning traders will also look to the margin
requirements as a way to determine which market to
trade, saying things such as "My account is so small I
can only ?afford? to trade Soybeans and Wheat, because
they are the only contracts with a small enough margin

The fact is you can?t ?afford? to trade ANY market
unless you have a winning approach!

If you don?t, you might as well hand over your money to
the nearest charity and save yourself the aggravation,
because you will lose it anyway!

Margin requirements are set to protect the integrity of
the marketplace, they are intended to make sure that
traders have sufficient capital on hand to meet their
obligations should the market move against their position.

They are calculated based on a specific formula that
takes into account the volatility of the market in

Generally speaking, as a rule of thumb, they are
approximately equivalent to the average 3-day true
range of that market.

Margin requirements should NEVER be used to determine
the market, or number of contracts, to trade. Doing so
leads one to risk too great a percentage of equity on
any given position.


_______________________________________________ A close cousin of un-realistic expectations is
unwarranted over-confidence, inspired by a series
of successes in trading.

This is something that frequently affects
experienced traders after they have had a
good run in the markets.

They start feeling 'invincible', think
they've got the 'market figured out' and
have a tendency to take greater risks than they
should as a result (given their account size).

The market will invariably humble the over-
confident trader and hand him devastating
losses, as he gets called on the excessive
risk he has assumed through greater trading
size or the use of bigger stops (or even
worse - the use of no stops).
stock select...nse..scan by explorer...ready to move ..
pattern triangle ...continuation....i have bullish bias..
2nd particular retrace...bullish engulf...
so this two me candidate..ready to move up @9-55...ready to enter.../max no 3 trade...
if any news +flash..enter aggressively...if published recommendation..
whether its a trap to book profit...[its normal]
trading amount 3 lakh..1each...
if after 15min price..1% up..enter...profit pt...3%....
always keep eye on nifty future...if sell order is NOT UR DAY
.....this system has 70% success rate atleast for me..

i believe search of candidate..very takes me @2hr..after scan how it shall
behave next day...
various alternate scenario...entry / exit...

so now u all understand why it suit rm/dealer...they can unemotionally..
watch..ofcourse execute.. as confidently ...
if condition not suit to trade...they dont trade
on short term trade...

its basically retracement buy...on a paticular stock..whether present value justified ? i use fundamental input...if analyst has conflict..i consider candidate is good one...

ma value 20 i use..also how stock behaved last 6month....
what ma x ..3/10 suggesting...i enter...
here i use good money amount 5 lakh...half idle

max put 50000, in a trade stop 4%...unfortunately accuracy..35-30% only..
so in a winning trade...i put 2lakh...after 5-8% price for another..
4-5% profit...
i get out..from loser at stop...unfortunately ...recent switch down ward..
cost me good a part down put me in puzzle...
since..accuracy mine is poor..;.. i think to discard this...
as i am not master in volatility...present market condition...
fact is i am poor as short term trader...

why?...may be long days fundamental faith...
but worst one . holding loser..[use of hope]...
entry is definitely my strength...
but exit is poor...judgemental error comes from other commitment....

.................................................. ................................................
why i guess successfully...natural flair of 30yr of chess play..alternate situation to act, use of survival instinct.....

but its stressful, i am older now,...may be new guys r faster,
good candidate for next day is my strength....
metastock explorer i use...
also omnitrader..which suggest some candidates....

so i use pib, ...entry technique .. x of buy at break out on particular pivot...
if i commit bigger...

i dont mind to lose, as loss r less in it has +expectancy..
if market condition unpredictive simply i dont trade...

it helps to noise trading i break of pivot , moving
to higher zone ...easier and suit me in past...
as i believe daytrade is gambling, luck of right or wrong is always there
so i am ready for wrong, it prevents me let loss run...
as screening is done..i know what i am expected to do..
filter..+ bias of nifty...
any news publish creates criticality of trade...sudden surge of greedy fool
can send stock price any where..., last 6month behavior thats why i study on hourly chart..on particular surgeday..

its readyness to act..basically given me lots of right trade consistently
i give more hints..x of 7 ema with closing price..
trigger... 8day ..william%r std signal
5day rsi strength increasing...

i assure u it gives money...those who doubt can back test it..
atleast condition fulfilled , given +move within next 2days

psychologically i find it very useful, as i am ready to lose ..i am nothing to loss..[hey i bet on bangladesh,against india..pun intended..]
i can avoid my weakzone..volatility

so those who have asked...ENJOY
investment vs trading
this is a controversial topic...still i decide to putting money
for long term..strategic thought process is imp...consider any md..plans for expansion of his arrangement and plan to plough back
..implementation of dream into reality..
constant watch to maintain target as per key...

same thing , if u invest u have to check...

its a concept to buy low and sell high..
where the demand is EXPECTED TO build, buying candidate..
where further demand realisation is not possible ...SELL

SINCE expected materialisation is not possible[ on some cases]..
get out before other traders dump..

whichever path u look none is easy...
fortunately some torch bearer help in writing their journey in distinctive style

many a great name all of us can utter.., but its IMPOSSIBLE to follow them

why?..2 individual r not same...copying is not possible

can u be any of them? i assure u ..its an impossible event


so what is your path and alternate view?


a basic std rate of return is possible...

money managers view is easy to implement...

investment view..PUT MONEY IN SUNRISE INDUSTRY. in india for indian company

trading view.....based on some value analysis buy at oversold zone..and hope mean reversion shall bring u quick profit[ holding period 3-6month]

many traders may disagree...i say to them ..;'u r right, u do the same thing
in smaller timeframe..based on your is ur RETURN'

NOW LOOK AT ALL GREAT DAY TRADER...they r mostly engineer..strong math logic...understand linear relationship..
with own developed one/ intraday plan ..with good signal generated..cont..
they can make money...regular basis...discipline and strict stop loss is mantra
experienced one with fund available...can do PLAY LEVERAGE

next..i say those who work in this field...they simply copy cat a winner ,

depending upon experience a little, lose a little'

now..COMES THE FOOL, DREAMER...THEY NEVER UNDERSTAND HOW TOUGH ITS REALLY..[van tharp never made money by trading..though he trains many
best of the best traders]
so have the ELEMENT IN YOU..time to invest and learn
right attitude....TORTOISE WINS HERE..

Noise..a price within +/- 3%[ per my experience ]
its the time u should watch..
soon some big fund /syndicate starts buy or sell..with price change +/-change..defining an up or down trend accordingly...
its when more volume joins writes..oppurtunity to make money for early entrants..when trend is no more moving up..[ put hope triangle pattern
hopelessly i dont know when profit book starts and price shall fall

many signal is used by many as per confidence level and experience..

but none can handle SHOCK/EVENT...
SINCE IT CHANGES INVESTORS SENTIMENT BY NEWCOMING OF BUY AND SELL ORDER...hence price study..aswell as order flow must be the tools in your trading arsenal

2nd aim is study what others trader shall do ..on an event...

3rd money flow to india...
if fii is selling, YOU HAVE TO..
nobody can withstand flood, ...sell and go to hill station...

some book reference
trading psychology
1. van tharp
2. dr elder
3. ari kiev
4. phantom of pit

trading phiosophy
they are works of trader
1. gann
2. linda
3. larry williams
4. bill williams
5. levermore
6. niederhoffer victor
7. soros
8. j ross

some technical related writing/context

1. candlestick
2. elliot wave
3. momentum theory
4. profit magic of stock transaction timing

system design
1. way to trade
2. tusher chande
3. p. kaufman
4. j katz

applied theme
1. contrarian thinking
2. fibonacci
3. a-b-c pattern
4. stop loss
5. daytraders bible
6. trading on probability
7. portfolio management

subjective trading
swing trading ...landry
bary rudd
encyclopedia of chart pattern
tony crabel works
4 biggest mistake
trading in the zone
..................SUNRISE INDUSTRY..




TO DO 1 2 3



WHEN TO HOLD?.........when trend continuing.

WHEN MARKET SHALL TOP OUT..........simply get out.ULTIMATE TEST OF A subjective trader


Well-Known Member
objective trading i am novice in computer..
column name is given prepare suitable excel ..attach
[ if possible or mail to me]

trade sheet
no heading
1 dt
2 name of stock
3 type of
4. trade set up volume spike/support pt
result out/ commodity price up
5. entry condition ..pull back/ break out/ continuation
6. money alloted of stock x price
7. style of trade short term / inter mediate
8. present value of nifty
9. any hype at present...
10. stop loss
11. profit booking strategy ....1.................2
12. profit target.. p1............p2

13. additional buy strategy/ with reason
14. sell dt and NIFTY VALUE

15. sell quantity x sell price..
16. whether trade is profit...howmuch
17. whether trade is loss.. howmuch
18. have u followed stop and SAR. IF NOT WHY
19. reason of sell
20. cost of trade[ comission+ tax]
21. your net profit
22. your monthly rate of return..

2nd sheet ..monthly performance sheet
.................................................. ...

column description

1 month
2 total no of trade in month
3. no of winning trade
4. total amount of winning
5. no of lossing trade
6. total amount of losing
7. net profit/ loss in a month
8. is losing trade shown some pattern failure/
wrong assumption
9. av. win amount per trade per lakh
10. increase of your equity value..
11. percentage of wrong trade
12. risk amount in each trade. value %
13. drawdown condition to quit
14. monthly yield compare to nifty yield in month

note.. its best if u plot this equity curve
become a trader
following register/file u should open and write....this will definitely make u a trader.. sufficiently real earning potential..only patience reqd.. as a business psychology
3.your psychology and you[real one]
4.your trading rule
5.different type of trade..swing..intermediate term trade
[its not u have todo, but must know on what conditional fulfillment others trade..enter and exit]
6.longterm trade or investment
7.indian stock
8. factors which move price
9.fundamental analysis study
11.ta..indicator analysis..
12.chart pattern management/risk analysis preparation..volume management..
15. software..metastock[u may prefer other]
16.short sell
17.diary analysis..

take print/ write on them..check ..then only apply
Whenever anyone comes to me for help in starting a trading career, one of the first things I recommend is organizing a business plan. It provides direction and helps novice traders start off with a systematic approach.

I suggest that new traders put their costs, their goals, and how they intend to achieve those goals, in writing. It's the same approach you'd follow for any other business. They usually come back with a reasonable plan.

Say, for instance, you have $10,000 a month in expenses. To earn that amount you would need to net around 50 cents a day, trading 1,000 shares. So you would start off learning an appropriate trading strategy and build up to that goal. It sounds simple enough, but the problem people quickly run into is that this isn't exactly like any other business, is it?

Trading Without Goals

We live in a very goal-oriented society. Aristotle once said, "Man is a goal-seeking animal. His life only has meaning if he is reaching out and striving for his goals." And I believe it's very important to have goals. They help keep us focused and motivated, giving us a sense of purpose and direction.

But trading is a funny occupation. Many of the same things that create success in other endeavors will cause problems in your trading. And so it is with goals. Trading goals can put you in a mindset that may very well act as a negative force on your trading.


One of the problems with setting trading goals is that too often, the goal is all we can think of. Albert Einstein once said, "The American lives even more for his goals, for the future, than the European. Life for him is always becoming, never being." A lot of people look at this occupation in terms of making money and enjoying the freedom that trading affords, and they don't really have a love of trading for trading's sake. If you fail to enjoy the process of striving toward the goal, it will be difficult to reach that goal.

Another problem is that people always seem to set their trading goals too high. Your goal has to be reasonable for your skill level. Otherwise, you are setting yourself up for a lot of frustration. Trading goals automatically add pressure -- and the higher the goal, the more pressure there is. The more pressure there is, the more emotion you add to your trading. The more emotion you have, the more mistakes you will make.

There is an innate problem with setting up daily trading quotas as a goal. You can't force good trading setups. They either come to you or they don't. We are entirely dependent on what the market offers us. That means some days you will meet your goal, and some days you will not. It is hoped that the good days make up for the bad ones, but you have to come to terms with the inconsistency. If you try to force trades, you will invariably suffer an increase in stops
Slow and Steady

One thing that helps is making your hero the turtle instead of the hare. I see this time and time again in my trading room. Whenever anyone makes a big, impressive gain, that trader becomes the hero. Everyone tries to then emulate that trader's moves. Meanwhile, someone else who has been steadily racking up one small gain after another goes almost unnoticed, when in reality, the steady, small, consistent trades are adding up to a lot more than the occasional whopper.

Another thing that helps is breaking your goal up into steps. Rather than focusing on achieving that goal of 50 cents a day with 1,000 shares, start with 10 cents, then 20 cents, and build up gradually. Trade small shares to control your risk. Start with 100 shares, build up to 200, then 500, increasing shares only after you have achieved consistent profits. Take it one step at a time, and it might surprise you what you can achieve.

Last year, I took a backpacking trip into a wilderness area in Northern California. I am used to horse-packing, but I had offered to take my contractor on a nice bow-hunting excursion for record class mule deer, so I decided to act as guide and backpack in. I tried my best to keep my pack light, but the gear we needed that time of year during colder weather meant I had to haul 40 pounds.

Now I hadn't been backpacking in almost 40 years. So when I got out of the truck and looked up at the 3,000-foot peak we intended to climb, all I could say was, wow. Looking at our goal up there really put me in a state of despair. I kept looking up at the peak, then at my 40-pound pack, then over at the happy 45-year-old "kid" next to me.
put the pack on and started off. About 50 feet down the trail, my legs and back started hurting. I must have grunted or something because my friend asked, "Ken, you OK?"

I said, "Sure. I am fine." But what I was really thinking was, "What have I done? I am not going to make this!" It reminded me of what many new traders say to me after two weeks of trying to learn.

So I decided I wasn't going to look at the peak. I resolved to simply look at the trail and take one step at a time. The trip wound up being a "one step at a time" proposition. I was convinced I couldn't climb to the peak, but I could take one more step. And the funny thing is, I made it 12 miles! In fact, I could have kept going, but my friend was pooped out.

So take your eyes off the peak. If you want to reach your trading goals, learn to enjoy the process and simply take your trading one step at a time.

coursey nkp
Only thing is as regards to implementation, proper education is also required as it is in the US. You can't go on learning by trial and error in a field that has a more than 90% failure rate. If there can be hotel management and textile designing courses, there should be proper trading courses.

Trading for the love of trading- everyone is not so lucky. Many ppl have to force themselves to do things they don't like to support thier families.

No matter how excellent the analysis, it only reflects the current situation.It cannot guarantee what happens in the future-"The future is not always an extention of the present"-That is wht TA reflects and that is why trading is a journey not a destination. You have to go where the mkt takes you and make continous adjustments
We have outlined four major hurdles when it comes to learning from our own mistakes. FIrstly, we often fail to recognize our mistakes because we attribute them to bad luck rather than poor decision making. Secondly, when we are looking back, we often can't separate what we believed beforehand from what we now know. Thirdly, thanks to the illusion of control, we often end up assuming outcomes are the result of our actions. Finally, we are adept at distorting the feedback we do receive, so that it fits into our own view of our abilities.

Some of these behavioural problems can be countered by keeping written records of decisions and the 'logic' behind those decisions. But this requires discipline and a willingness to re-examine our past decisions. Psychologists have found that it takes far more information about mistakes than it should do, to get us to change our minds."
Just about everyone knows the grisly statistics about options trading: 90% of all naked option players (no, that doesn't mean they trade in the buff, only that they buy uncovered puts or calls) end up losing money. But hardly anyone knows the equally grisly statistics about equity trading: 80% of all stock investors end up losing money.
But how can that be, you ask? Over time, the stock market is a sure thing, a guaranteed way to make money. It's so easy. All you have to do is buy good stocks and hold them. Everybody says this, pundits, brokers, financial advisors, the media, the historical record itself. No one who simply bought and held the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 has ever lost money over a 20-year time span. Right? Yes, right. Now go find me someone who bought and held for 20-years. You should be able to find a few, about 20% to be precise. The other 80% lose money.

How does this happen? A couple of ways. Primarily, it happens because no matter how resolute people think they are about buying and holding, they usually fall into the same old emotional pattern of buying high and selling low. Investors are human beings. Human beings naturally want to be in the winning camp, and human beings naturally seek to avoid pain. When things are most euphoric in the investment world, at the top of a long bull market, these human beings are in there buying. And when things are most painful, at the end of bear market, these human beings are in there selling. In fact, it's usually the final capitulation of the last remaining "holders" that sets up the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market. As Sy Harding says in his excellent book "Riding The Bear," while people may promise themselves at the top of bull markets that this time they'll behave differently, "no such creature as a buy and hold investor ever emerged from the other side of the subsequent bear market." Statistics compiled by Ned Davis Research back up Harding's assertion. Every time the market declines more than 10% (and "real" bear markets don't even officially begin until the decline is 20%), mutual funds experience net outflows of investor money. Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. Most bear markets last for months (the norm), or even years (both the 1929 and 1966 bear markets), and one can see how the torture of losing money week after week, month after month, would wear down even the most determined buy and holder. But the average investor's pain threshold is a lot lower than that. The research shows that It doesn't matter if the bear market lasts less than 3 months (like the 1990 bear) or less than 3 days (like the 1987 bear). People will still sell out, usually at the very bottom, and almost always at a loss.

So THAT is how it happens. And the only way to avoid it is to avoid owning stocks during bear markets. If you try to ride them out, odds are you'll fail. And if you believe that we are in a New Era, and that bear markets are a thing of the past, your next of kin will have my sympathies.

But people lose money in other ways, too, even during the strongest of bull markets. Let's look at some of the more common trading mistakes to which people are prone. Many of them are related, part and parcel of the same refusal to pay proper attention to risk management. If you recognize your own actions in some of these, join the club. Over the years, I've committed every sin on the list at least once. Still do on occasion.

-- Letting small losses turn into large losses.

A whole myriad of mistakes accompany this one. Refusing to take a loss at all. Overbetting. Catching falling knives. Averaging down. Etc., etc.. At root, it's probably because the average investor pays little mind to risk management. In a way, it's understandable. The majority of those in the market today have only come into the market during the last 5 to 7 years. They have never really experienced a serious bear market. The only investing world they know is that of an ongoing bull market, where it's ALWAYS okay to buy the dips, where a stock that craters ALWAYS comes back. But SOMEBODY bought UBid at 121. And SOMEBODY bought eBay at 234. I hope it wasn't you. You should only be buying stocks that are in an ongoing uptrend (hopefully not TOO far along however), or those that are bottoming out following a stiff correction. In other words, when you buy a stock it should be with the expectation that it will go up (otherwise, why buy it?). If it goes down instead, you've made a mistake in your analysis. Either you're early, or just plain wrong. It amounts to the same thing. There is no shame in being wrong, only in STAYING wrong. If a stock does not quickly begin to move in the direction you envisioned when you purchased it, you should begin to question your reasons for owning it and you should immediately put it on a short leash. If it doesn't turn in relatively quick fashion, get rid of it. You can always go back in later, when it really turns. This goes to the heart of the familiar adage: let winners run, cut losers short. Nothing will eat into your performance more than carrying a bunch of dogs and their attendant fleas, both in terms of actual losses and in terms of dead, or underperforming, money.

-- Refusing to take a loss at all.

I simply don't understand the way some people think. From whence came the idiotic notion that a loss "on paper" isn't a "real" loss until you actually sell the stock? Or that a profit isn't a profit until the stock is sold and the money is in the bank? Nonsense. Your stock and your portfolio is worth whatever you can sell it for, at the market, right at this moment. No more. No less. People are reluctant to sell a loser for a variety of reasons. For some it's an ego/pride thing, an inability to admit they've made a mistake. That is false pride, and it's faulty thinking. Your refusal to acknowledge a loss doesn't make it any less real. Hoping and waiting for a loser to come back and save your fragile pride is dumb. Your loser may NOT come back. And even if it does, a stock that is down 50% has to put up a 100% gain just to get back to breakeven. Losses are a cost of doing business, a part of the game. If you never have losses, then you are not trading properly. Most pros have three losers for every winner. They make money by keeping the losses small and letting the profits build. You should be almost happy to take a loss. It means that you have jettisoned an underachiever stock and have freed up that dead money to put to better use elsewhere. Take your losses ruthlessly, put them out of mind and don't look back, and turn your attention to your next trade.

This gets into the realm of money management. Diversification, the process of spreading your investment capital around in different assets and sectors to feather the vagaries of the market, has gotten a bit of a bum rap lately. Some of the New Paradigm folks think the concept is "old fashioned." These tend to be the same people who have every last dime in a handful of internet stocks. That's not investing, or even trading. It's gambling. Preservation of capital is paramount. If you run out of chips, game over man. You may feel a bit envious the day your neighbor, who has put everything he owns into parks his new Mercedes in the driveway next door, but you'll feel a lot better the day the repo man comes with the tow truck to take it back. Most professionals will allocate no more than 2-5% of their total investment capital to any one position. Ten percent should be your absolute max. One more thing. I've checked the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and nowhere in either of them does it say that you have to have ALL of your money in the stock market ALL of the time. Money management also pertains to your total investment posture. Even when your analysis is overwhelmingly bullish, it never hurts to have at least some cash on hand, earning its 5% in the money market. You'll need it when you see that next "can't miss" stock but don't want to sell any of your other "can't miss" stocks to raise the money to buy it. Your exposure should be consistent with your overall market analysis. As the market becomes more overbought, overextended, and overvalued, your cash level should rise accordingly. Then as the market gets more oversold and undervalued, you can raise your market exposure accordingly. Being ALL in the market or ALL out of the market sounds like a good idea, and it may work out wonderfully on paper, but it rarely plays out so smoothly in real life and real investing. But you should still employ a sliding scale of exposure, based on your market analysis.
Bottom fishing/Catching falling knives.

Many of the daily e-mails I get are of the following type: "Nick, is down 23 points today. Time to buy?!!!" My answer is almost always the same. "Put your pants on, Spartacus. No!" Don't ANTICIPATE bottoms. It's tempting to try to pinpoint an exact low, especially if you're working with indictors like Fibonacci fan and time lines, cycle studies, regression channels, even plain old lateral support points. But it's almost always better to let the stock find its bottom on it's own, and then start to nibble. Just because a stock is down big doesn't mean it can't go down even bigger. In fact, a major multipoint drop is often just the beginning of a larger decline. It's always satisfying to catch an exact low tick, but when it happens it's usually by accident. Let stocks and markets bottom and top on their own and limit your efforts to recognizing the fact "soon enough." Nobody, and I mean nobody, can consistently nail the bottom tick or top tick. Those who try usually get burned.

-- Averaging down.

Don't do it. For one thing, you shouldn't even have the opportunity, because you should have sold that dog before it got to the level where averaging down is tempting. The pros average UP, not down; they got to be pros because they added to winners, not losers. And speaking of averaging UP, there's a right way to do it. And doubling your position is not it. Rather, you should add 1/2 your original stake. If other words, if you already own 100 shares and want to bolster your position, you buy 50 shares. If you later decide to add more, you add 25 shares, etc. Why you should do it this way is too long to go into here, but that's the way the math works out best for you.
Shorting bulls and buying bears.

Yes, there are stocks that will go up in bear markets and stocks that will go down in bull markets, but it's usually not worth the effort to hunt for them. The vast majority of stocks, some 80+%, will go with the market flow. And so should you. It doesn't make sense to counter trade the prevailing market trend. If you're worried about a short term pullback, simply cut back on your trading, take a few profits, and build up your stash of cash. Let that money earn its 5% in the money market until the squall has passed.

-- Confusing the company with its stock.

There are some fine companies with mediocre stocks, and some mediocre companies with fine stocks. Try not to confuse the two. This is, at heart, a fundamental analysis versus technical analysis issue. Some stocks simply have excellent trading characteristics while others don't. Maybe it's a matter of liquidity, or a fanatical message board following, or a daytrading clientele, or whatever. Take for example. Is the company a good one? Who knows? Not me. But the stock is. I wouldn't want to have to hold it for 20 years, but I sure don't mind trading it a few days at a time, the "right" days. That sucker moves. Baby Bells are at the other end of the spectrum. Fine companies for the most part. Wouldn't mind owning one for 20 years. But you have to pick your spots when you go to trade them, because a measly 3 point move in a single session is huge for a Baby Bell. Also remember this: even the stock of a great company can go through a bad patch. IBM is a great company today, with its stock selling at 124, and it was a great company five years ago, when its stock was selling at 13.

Falling in love with a "story."

This is related to confusing the company with its stock. There are a lot of intriguing "stories" out there, but they don't always translate into instant riches. Iomega was such a "story" stock. The story was that the company's Zip drive was going to replace the floppy in the world's computers. The stock ran straight up to the sky to wait for the story to come true. And for the most part, IOM's story DID come true (many stories don't, witness the Y2K stocks), but the stock gave back most of its gains anyway. Turns out it wasn't that much of a story after all. In other cases, the story comes true but the stock you've bet on isn't the story teller. Witness the laser vision "story." A number of companies were hyped as the category killer, but only one, VISX, made its stockholders real money. And how about satellite communications? Great story, eh? Tell it to those who loaded up on Iridium's stock.

-- Following the leader.

Just as money tends to flow into last year's top mutual fund (sure to be next year's underachiever), people tend to chase the high flying momentum MO-MO stocks, succumbing to the buzz and getting in AFTER the stock has already jumped 80% and inevitably just before it drops 60% as the early buyers take their profits by selling their shares to the "greater fool," you. Yes, you can make a quick buck chasing momentum, but you can lose it even quicker. You can never be sure there's a greater fool coming in after you, and that could make you the "greatest fool."
Finding the Holy Grail.

Technicians regularly fall into periods where they tend to favor one or two indicators over all others. No harm in that, so long as the favored indicators are working, and keep on working. But the analyst should always be aware of the fact that as market conditions change, so will the efficacy of their indicators. Indicators that work in one type of market may lead you badly astray in another. You have to be aware of what's working now and what's not, and be ready to shift when conditions shift. There is no Holy Grail indicator that works all the time and in all markets. If you think you've found it, get ready to lose money. Instead, take your trading signals from the "accumulation of evidence" among ALL of your indicators, not just one.

-- Overtrading.

The Picks Port commits this sin on a regular basis, but that's mostly because of the nature of the beast. I have to be more short term oriented than I'd prefer to be because you, my subscribers, tend to be more short term oriented than you probably should be. Daytrading, of course, is the epitome of overtrading. Most people just are not equipped, emotionally, intellectually, or mechanically, to day trade and statistics tell us that most are not successful at it. If you are not making money at daytrading but keep on doing it anyway, you should examine your motives. If it's the action you crave, take up skydiving. It's safer and cheaper.

Excessive tape watching.

I get a kick out of people who insist that they're intermediate or long term investors, buy a stock, then anxiously ask whether they should bail the first time the stocks drops a point or two. Likely as not, the panic was induced by watching the tape, or hearing some talking head on CNBC. Watching the ticker can be fun. It can be mesmerizing. But it can also be dangerous. It leads to emotionalism and to hasty decisions. Try not to make trading decisions when the market is in session. Do your analysis and make your plan when the market is closed and the White Noise of the television and the ticker is absent, then calmly execute your plan the following day. You have your stop and your target. So go take a nap, or go to the movies, or mow the lawn. The only time you should be scrutinizing the tape is when you're looking for an immediate entry or exit point for a trade. Otherwise, do your blood pressure a favor and tune out.

-- Being undercapitalized.

If you have less than $50,000 to invest, you'd probably be better off in a mutual fund rather than trading individual stocks. To get proper diversification with a fully invested exposure you need at least 10 stocks. You do the math.

-- Letting the tax tail wag the stock dog.

Don't let tax considerations dictate your decision on whether to sell a stock. Pay capital gains tax willingly, even joyfully. The only way to avoid paying taxes on a stock trade is to not make any money on the trade
Relying on gurus.

I'm spitting in my own rice bowl here, but you should not be letting some self-appointed market "gooroo" dictate or dominate your trading decisions. The most you should expect, or accept, from folks like me are a few trading ideas, a little technical analysis tutoring, and a bit of guidance in maintaining a solid trading discipline. You should not think of a market letter (ANY market letter) as a substitute for a personally managed portfolio. No one knows or cares about your personal circumstances like you do; how much money you have to invest, your tolerance for pain, your goals, your most suitable and comfortable time frame, etc. And you should be doing everything in your power to make Nick's Picks unnecessary and irrelevant to your trading, to learn enough not to need the likes of me anymore. Read some books. Take some courses. Buy some decent charting software and arrange for a data feed.

-- Thinking this market stuff is easy.

Don't confuse genius with a bull market. It's not that hard make money in a roaring bull market. Keeping your gains when the bear comes prowling is the hard part. Don't get cocky, but don't grovel either. You're not as smart as you think you are when everything is going great. But you're not as dumb as you think you are when everything is going to hell either. The market whips all our butts now and then. The whipping usually comes just when we think we've got it all figured out.

-- Thinking rather than looking.

One thing you should be thankful for is that you don't HAVE to come up with a reason for WHY the market is doing what it's doing. The talking heads on CNBC do because that's their job. I do too, because I know you expect it of me. But you don't. Just follow your chart work and let someone else do the pontificating. After all, who REALLY knows why stock ABC goes up 5 points on Monday while stock XYZ, in the same business, goes down 5 points? That's the great thing about technical analysis. You don't have to know. The price action is THE TRUTH. It's all you really need to know. Price doesn't lie. Price doesn't alibi. Price never complains and never explains. It is what it is. When XYZ goes up $5 on heavy volume, let Joe Hairdo on CNBC jabber on about what it all means. We KNOW what it means. It means XYZ went up $5 on heavy volume.




OTHER WISE.. emotional decision r mostly promise -return

increment of eps is good...more is new order..

top or bottom guessing is dream...however they can be seen in left side of a near by top..if price starts falling ..sell and get out
...justify later[ afterall u r trading with real money...not an analyst for tv-channel]...
same way watch for short term bottom..[ 3650..nifty future on 3/4/07 i dont miss...and book profit today 3970]...
when no further fallnot coming . be ready for buy..
buy on first oppurtunity order is coming nifty future..3rd
just dream run ended i book profit...

do u think its a good trade ? no shear luck!..i simply can not put hope...
afterall i allow big drawdown 30% feb/march ..breaking all common sense

signalled i followed in this trade
1. media shall fall[ contrarian]
2. fii putting real money..
3. william% R starts moving up

stop if any,, 3600 or time stop 3day
background: trading must be treated as business. risk capital +time +attitude
to learn and do necessary behavior modification

1. risk management and survival first..since trading works in unpredictive arena u handle loss is very imp.small loss should never allowed to turn big..however price fluctuation zone should be taken care of optimum stop
2.right attitude...let profit run..benign neglect partial profit
sar..if market turns opposite
3. add winners most difficult to implement..not possible in daytrade or short term
4. advance aggressive with winner ..higher fund allocation..hence keep fund idle for suitable oppurtunity..
modified view..contrarian buy at temporary low of market
5. since most of things r subjective..emotional control is supreme priority..
development of entry / exit ..a system is a method to do so..
purpose of it to stop emotional burning and +expectency..hence if u prepare it ..follow it strictly..
6.system may have subjective part..lower the time , more mechanical it should be ..for day / short term price study governs.
indicator / backtesting help suitable implement..
7. stock selection and timing other 2 critical element
as trading game is search of oppurtunity/ against risk of ruin..balance plays the pivot..balance in life..balance with low risk with high reward ..
time well as write own trade performance..

u must know what works in market...

unfortunately it different time frame criteria changes
...time element...

it takes time to understand..realisation of capability ..dream vs. reality

patience to bloom oppurtunity[let profit run]

time to observe[search mode] and right time to implement[execution]

but we forget TIME TO LEARN..

DIFFICULT ONE.. time to check own performance[what i am]
tree must be seen before branch...bigger picture must be taken first.
economy/world view/political position ..ofcourse..fii cash flow at present
...understand my view..its not bullish/bearish ..nor goal..
upbeat on economy..
stability or continuity...this 3 element only....

for fii cash flow...a comparative base 10 days ago[2week]

they decide whether to continue or quit .
act aggressively or play defensively..without this time element can not exist.

if all of them r favourable .
cross current..short time frame..ultra cautious.
unfathomable..hold cash.
all -, play short on nifty
.............................................time frame contd
so time to act has been decided..

only timeframe that suits u. where u can think/visualise .
visualise what may happen .....that is happening later..

can u execute ?another critical question!
if not, place order on phone..allow others to place order..
let other may see the screne...
but decision making process should not be faught with internal dilemma

its a known fact in chess..half hr chess is better than 5min..1 hr rapid is better .2hr is further better..classic chess brings out of a champ...

definitely time to think improve quality...quality of selection and timing...

and see the ploy/ called news trap and marketing/gimic...
foolish greedy bull trap...
fortunately u , trader has another weapon..time out....stop loss

we chess player fight ..fight to save ..hope for opponent mistake...
better is quit...accept loss.. no hope..use TIME....time to find oppurtunity
write lesson learned....

time to search oppurtunity plays heavily in trading...however for exit more mechanical approach is helpful
in chess u write . then u play on board...
same way u write a plan ...see price confirmation then place order.

hence choice of a higher time frame necessary to act...
for daytrade..eod data ..decision making + hr signal good...
for high break on smaller time [ 3min/5min] +increment in momentum / volume surge..with small target execution is key
for short term trader eod + week base signal ...
position trader [ cold blooder murderer to rob ur money]..plays with subjective judgement..allows profit run..use break out/ pull back as necessary
..applies suitable tactics as when necessary...simply get out when wrong[infact they use time stop from hara-kiri]...experience...chain to get info..
professional friend and leverage..all tools r used...
yet sometimes they lose..when they are NOT ready change...with blockade
market directional view

hence depending upon actual you...can choose any time frame ..with greater accuracy level...another higher time frame for clarity of thought..
however check performance..take membership..a performer in that time minimise scanning time...performance analysis..execution idea must
if u know math/ computer/ have time trade is best..
av with experience...short oppurtunity exists
good knowledge/part time ..view on life..ready to work hard..wait for oppurtunity...try to be a position trader...use weekly chart..10day cycle...

subjective view
preview...before an insident u r taking a view..what may happen.
review....after an insident u analise.
proview..while insident is happening ..u r taking decision[pick among best alternative]..acting in your best interest.
this PROVIEW is the aim of a successful trader.use review later...
follow proview to get money...avoid danger
do u find difficulty ? think of childhood..writing essay...introduction...

leading indicator must be used for preview..idea..fundamental estimate..
a trade plan...but on actual market ..only proview..lagging indicator on intraday chart basis...observe and of trade..
if u r like in end of week
................................................. never ever introduction to get highest priority..hence openion always comes last....this order should never be broken[if u want to money out of market]

bullish far market can go up what time limit..
an analyst writes tcs price target means 1sigma.66% chance of reaching tcs 1650 within a yr of time..if present condition [linear interpolation] prevails
if he writes conservative target 1600...itmeans 95%[2sigma]
chance of achieving that target within a yr

now again on new quarterly result out/review of company this may be edited depending on prevailing market condition

however conviction is rare in analyst put big money...WHY?

HE KNOWS THE RISK/ASSUMPTION..which rarely get published..
the trick of management ...promotion sell

sentiment change..alternate far market can fall?
at what duration it shall continue...nobody knows..but fibonacci definitely helps the trader..where is support...commit little money..commit and see
price reversing ..hey u get it more now!

hence market movement offers enough oppurtunity to active observer
methodical man can make money out of it
objective trading i am novice in computer..
column name is given prepare suitable excel ..attach
[ if possible or mail to me]

trade sheet
no heading
1 dt
2 name of stock
3 type of
4. trade set up volume spike/support pt
result out/ commodity price up
5. entry condition ..pull back/ break out/ continuation
6. money alloted of stock x price
7. style of trade short term / inter mediate
8. present value of nifty
9. any hype at present...
10. stop loss
11. profit booking strategy ....1.................2
12. profit target.. p1............p2

13. additional buy strategy/ with reason
14. sell dt and NIFTY VALUE

15. sell quantity x sell price..
16. whether trade is profit...howmuch
17. whether trade is loss.. howmuch
18. have u followed stop and SAR. IF NOT WHY
19. reason of sell
20. cost of trade[ comission+ tax]
21. your net profit
22. your monthly rate of return..

2nd sheet ..monthly performance sheet
.................................................. ...

column description

1 month
2 total no of trade in month
3. no of winning trade
4. total amount of winning
5. no of lossing trade
6. total amount of losing
7. net profit/ loss in a month
8. is losing trade shown some pattern failure/
wrong assumption
9. av. win amount per trade per lakh
10. increase of your equity value..
11. percentage of wrong trade
12. risk amount in each trade. value %
13. drawdown condition to quit
14. monthly yield compare to nifty yield in month
hence as a complete trader..u must know range trading..trend trading
..also volatilityzone play [ i confess i dont know]

condition of market,.........

min 2 / short term
swing/ positon

min 2 style of entry...break out/ support buy/ pullback buy
exit in detail
profitable exit/ target profit book/ 50% and let other half run
exit in loss..bulk sell/ stop execution/ time stop

observe in uncertainity...say today..bearish strength is high..but bulls small individual traders give good fight..sufficient enough to come out of days low
definitely professionalbears can not rollon street smart bull. unless media prints bad picture..[this dalal write/say anything for personal motive..just like publishing foetus photo in 1st page.times of india..for publishity's sake]

ofcourse basic idea of company/sector u deal..fundamental conderation why price may change?

a test of reasoning ..your logical trade..your write up

no of stock to watch
4-5 min each chart...if u have 2 hr..20-25 stock

alternatively scanner helps to find particular conditional filter.
then watch them thoroughly for next day..hence more candidate for prelim.scan list..however nifty must be studied..
compare nifty with that stock..better strength in last 2day must
since result is imp.particularly this season..its a high risk style[i dont do now]..
...inside knowledge..a good analyst's prediction helps..but see call history..
rarely i see an accurate callgiver..check his assumption is ok but too costly

can any house / broker give 70% rate success ..i doubt.. at present market.

rbi policy is imp now..economy/rain prediction shall show its headline..
personally price i like ..its naked truth..but in india so many funda-hype. trader...i must see their view and conviction..its the subjective judgement when to follow trend and when to be contrarian

however live with uncertainity. position management and risk control..can make u a trader..[do it in natural rythm]...i dont know ..i thought i can ..fact is still i have to fine shy away...i believe in curse of GOD..WHO OPENS ARENA ..GREAT SECRET those who dont deserve ..goddess laksmi
moves happens many a time.. india. in the whole world..interview by star..creates ego letter flood ..acknowledge.. creates super ego ..blind faith
so i fly[ n hybernation]


Well-Known Member
'Trying to read this thread, difficult' conclusion has to be given.

1. trading is solo journey
2. lucky..if u get mentor, similar attitude friend.
3. journey path is difficult..and takes time.
4. grail exists....its after long experiment u understand with ur natural rythm
of choosen trade style ..continueusly get money out of market/ other trader.
5. catastrophy may hit u. if u r cocky.[ always have stop]
6. uncertainity element exists in market.
7. learn from own experience....also from other successful one, but assimilate
8. use some system. lower the timeframe .more mechanical it should be.
9. for position trading ..alittle discreaton is must.
10. for long term ..economic view....contrarian thought process helps
11. for day trade..break out trade style+momentum works best
12. for buy attempt is better.
13. for short play..experience high is too high!on first oppurtunity of reversal ..sell short..when buying momentum again seen cover it.
14.its not market, its u. create trouble and loss for u. stop self sabotage
15.directional view u may have ,but price is supreme.
16. when u dont know, sit ..learn.
17. for a good trader...flexible mind,discipline, execution skill is most imp
18. entry technique..any thing which u can do comfortably.
19. profit small loss...2 case rules r different..mechanical approach is better.
20. holding..on profit..give more time....on small loss ..get out early
21. some fundamental concept..knowledge on sector..key element to affect on price ..u must is life jacket.
22. fii moneyflow must be seen .so is political view.
23. ta is mother for a learn ..not to predict but to act.
24. money management is key..apply it.
25. read paper to see info ..see chart to check oppurtunity..u have to beat
other value to trade with odd against u
26.trend element gives money to trader. no body knows when it shall end.
27. live on reality. mastery over ..TIME.. very imp
28. trade must and learn from post mortem..what not to do.
29. many a good ref. r given. for site and books.,try to be a thinking TRADER

thanks my dear friend.
traderji rightly reflects.......... it has potential helping analysis of my trade/success and failure clearly of shows thought process r right......also sanguinity of price analysis.+ imp of money flow factor.......+ marketing style of broking house
.....conviction of a a two way sword.
swot + trade diary[reason behind a trade both entry and exit]....develops a trader.
.trend and trend termination r most imp concept.....for applying ta.
in random trade.....survival skill must get highest priority
.....personally for f&o.....i have - return
swing style ..av +;position trade......++; as i have strong oilfield background....
so its market proven me right[lucky i should say]
so i decide to improve my fundamental ....go back to advance financial to learn the technique of my enemy trade warriors[fund manager].....may take 2yr things go alright as a pro in market in 2010


Well-Known Member
next i comment on system for beginner
since after experiment , boys and men r apart..we can move further.
to see where we stand as a trader ..can we improve our trading ?
min 50 trading have been taken ..min 20 correct trade .

so the persons can understand trading is a search for oppurtunity.
losing trade may appear any time.
understand hot topic black swan.
concept of hunter and the hunted.

the basic of reward/ risk...when situation is out of hand
when trading is within comfort level.

hopefully have seen one 1bull-bear cycle..or as a pro 100% retracement and comeback.

philosophy of trade : market is war arena..ruthless fighter can only survive

: trading offers great no of oppurtunity to pick.A position
may be oppurtunity or a trouble[loss]...nobody knows
while picking,what it shall be.TIME will unfold..whether
it is profit making one or take money out of you.

corollary :do i know how to trade?if yes, how to do effectively
[trading performance]
specific method to be followed again and again[system]
system vs. individual psychology ----- TUNING

element : experience
market research and put data for validity
testing [ ofcourse u must have ability to test]
position management

if no system : poor trade result occurs with emotional trading.
when personal psychology not match with particular style
loss of oppurtunity[ missing oppurtunity due to fear]
wrong expectation

hence a system of timing must have 1. set up condition
2. entry
3. exit...profit target
4. risk analysis
5. exit ..contingency plan
1st principle
B BELIEF .. if trade continue as wishes ok.
C CONSEQUENCE , If price turn opposite get out
2nd principle





system design
beginners bias : buy only directional trade

condition : if nifty showing xyz stock
say today gtl ...@ 172...its moving further ++target175.
go back last week has given sufficient hints to move today / tomorrow...1130 move starts[ hope intraday players see it]

thursday and friday price hold ...fulfil my condition of trade

as a day trader 170 175 achieved..

as a short term trader 165 stop...with
so u understand why i a poor short term trader...before reaching of target more often than not it reaches my the loss in a/c

condition of short term entry is different than my momentum style..
so the confusion ...thats why i naturally i trade right in day

fact is in short term with proper risk/reward no trade exist in gtl..
time extension linearly does not quantify a trade. it is a trap..hope factor
so for short term reversal at bottom or at 50% fibonacci level better alternative.[ already topic become difficult]
day trading , short term , position trade and investment..4 r different scenario . condition for success in each ..has some peculiarity.

value investment [ works if u fit there.not suitable in present market] good stock with av p/e+ when price starts rising in weekly chart.

but for trading another concept..which shall give more score..consistent single
/2run by bangladesh against india..or wait and hit 4/6 run by bangladesh against south africa[ both match won by this novices..against superior pro]

u have to choose...1run day trade
2 run swing trade
4 run position trade
6 run multi bagger..nomore exists

[ if u r master trader,not a beginner like me,...try some portion of day winner to HOLD..SCORE 2RUN............another greedy[balanced greed ] view...BOOK 50% PROFIT IN SWING TRADE..LET OTHER 50% TO RUN FOR FURTHER PROFIT
day trading system
to quote cv ' master ur craft.practice and practice...ignore all others'
understand simplicity and it.u have to understand how price reflect everything..suitable indicator..derivative from price study and maintain strength...and eye for order flow....
thats all...alas! one is sufficiently difficult...3 is awesome in real time.
thats why salute to cv!
u must have some method to understand price increament shall continue
and then another when price dilution coming.
[objectively a programmer can do,i am ignorant]3min/10min ma x...also 15min rsi has some use...big order coming in sell side has its impact.

whatever it may be , real time execution is key.alert helps


Well-Known Member
high probable trade
its the directional bias...where most waiting watchers r ready to join..
market buying r coming...big volume r increasing

concept is use momentum ...act now.

another concept a trend started yesterday 3pm..hence further steam left.
scan at night for candidate.

without any news. on real time..sudden volume surge..price is also moving up.
shortterm trade/ swing trade
here u must reqd eod . a software ..preferably some risk reward analysis
some low risk entry tactics and stop-umbrella to save from rain.

u have to define entry characteristic .
1. entry after break out over longterm resistance zone
2. after twice bounce in support ..price just starts moving up.
3. sector starts moving up..stock has good rel strength comparison within sector.

......below 5% of last week low
if not 4% up move occurs within 5 trade days..use time stop

profit target 8-10% from entry..however after 5-6% price is NOT HOLDING
....get out with small profit...than turn profit into loss

for momentum base swing trade..refer david landry and crabel works
for system study see beyond tusher chande
next position trading
personally i decide only some shortterm winner to be extended for long.

and today bpcl, hpcl ,visual have given position buy signal.
its basically chart ..after trend change suggested entry at predetermined pt

for me some% up with volume metastock RSC EXPLORER candidate must be in upperside.
yes i use eye ball technique and pattern failure[ in h&s when instead of fall price starts move up and w.pattern price slowly starts moving..acceptance of price]

my idea given money in past..i dont know whether shall it work now.
but i put real money
some other low risk idea r predefined omnitrader eod study
position trade
support base has to be created..have u seen strong base support of rolta@78-82 ..2 yr back...after crossing never look back.

another criteria...when nifty starts moving up again after retracement
enter good candidate[presently who r in near yearly high like ongc]

third unexpected good result published and buy volume shows high demand
most imp part of position trade is stock u know from back ground move shall u try for bigger profit ,failure rate is high.
hence u must have inbuild mmsystem to get out with small loss and addon winner....mark boucher course is very helpful.

say being in known field i must track some news on company..
also result out of infy + affect midcap computer company..

as position trade is a judgement game..hit of the moment decision should NEVER be taken..infact temporary fall is a great buy oppurtunity

strength indicator on 2week chart basis [ ie converting data on 10day high-low-close basis available in metastock] is good way to see
in rangebound market...willium%r at oversold zone good indicator
in trend market , i use aroon .
after long fall, weekly chart engulfing bull i use for entry+ bill williums chaos entry signal
.......for stop simple sar as available in metastock...apart form subjective pattern stop and time stop.
profit booking ...50% quick booking
if however quickly price moving up .instead of sell i buy double as its low risk trade[ in the language of traderji confirmation by price]
-momentum short plan
this condition to be created by media..rumor of market shall goup ..vs pro have already some -divergence can be seen ...price slowly starts tv must speak again and again ..threat percept...more sell order coming in nifty future...NOW ONLY THE TIME for short...hence its a short term quick execution ..a bull market top trade ..with propaganda from media
otherwise harsh bad news....when most participant prefer to sit on cash[bulls r running away]

with hold ing stock its a conflicting trade..better sell holding first.
for position trade , subjectivty condition is there..simple triple ma. x can also be used...
however stop and checking of nifty must...its better to see advance-decline curve as in
for further study understand extended bullmarket and volatility condition
and see after result out how price is behaving
a full system is a jigsaw puzzle. ..only loose elements r given , u have to fit it.since u r pro, the beginner level r useless,boring.
however, clear hints r given ..get out ..sit on cash..when moneyflow comes back again on bullside.
system implementation
1. assumption .....condition of trade....if it does not exist no trade
2. entry..particular signal
3. holding profit one...give time.
4. exit..with profit target
with loss.
5. contingency save skin.
6. write after complete..of trade what i learn ..implementation vs. reaction of me based on fact.

this all elements r clearly written ..what actually works.
u to be neutralised so that i can think right.before taking position i must have an openion but PRICE must confirm my openion otherwise i must use stop and book loss to throw away openion.

since u have asked i place my personal openioned model
.................................................. ...........................
u have to work on prediction model in which chance of RIGHT/BEING WRONG has to evaluated.

a. company result..good business../..20% weightage
b. macro economy + moneyflow....40% weightage
c.sector business ..priority 20% weightage
d. other factor..operators game/random factor ..20% weightage

total 100%

by the chart , i SEE how others r viewing..ready with my move news guide me how fools shall behave,..many a time i am wrong ..but i stick to it.
as trading is not a game of perfection , 50%accuracy sufficient

Stock market chess
1.there is always a seller for a buyer.see otherside of story,..only one can be right2.evaluate only what matter,nothing more3.chess in totality contain perfect info, unfortunately market is not.4.decifer price, if nothing visible go with intuition[an intellectual skill developed based on pattern study & problem solving market with a plan ,longterm or constantly in eod and adjust accordingly. Look at market’s last day activity and last hr7. don’t waste money[don’t allow loss to run] winner when u have them9.winning reqd not only perfection from u,also mistakes from others.10.when u have got early signal, buy.11.always give high priority with nifty12.development of knowledge , time is money.13.don’t try leverage if u cant handle,use resource study…never ignore mistake15. stay in your own zone,stock selection16. fundamental contrarian, high level of vision Chess tells u to think /not impulsiveCheck opponent’s pt of view.2.tactics is very imp[don’t only read]4.always see sacrifical trap and positional strategy5.3move attack vs. attack on king .6.refer to move at hand and opponent’s last move7.never allow unnecessary pc loss.8.know how to win ‘won’ well also watch,opponent may give u opportunity.10.take’s the center.12.development of pc, it needs purpose13.premature attack is costly.14.chess study..admit blunder and reason of loss15.don’t be flashy to win16.grand master break the rule as he sees better, others understand it later.


Well-Known Member
here i am trying to write a great discussion with arun was 2003. [his father was manager of indian bridge team]have u played bridge ?'...i asked. he smiled. he had given a good lecture on indian economy..effect on suppose pn r banned..he was a part of india shining slogun, i told him 'trading is nothing but a bridge competition. cards come ..u have to play.partner is ur system ..u have to 2/3 yr of practice with all/various conditions how to react ready for u.opponents r other participants in market...never allow to at best..u can defend ..not to give extra tricks.
but sometimes they overbid ..your hand suggest..something wrong..u got double..and ;'score high'....BUY IN OVERSOLD MARKET..OR BOOK PROFIT ..IN OVERVALUED MARKET.
u got a good hand..u have to play as declarer...thats the oppurtunity u must buy..but ready for bad colour defender.try to score as best as possible with limiting risk.
bidding system...a general trade governing rule by which u decide 'whether to play..or its better to defend'
competitive selection trial..pairs event'...the game played with same card with directional opponent..your score shall be 'comparatively better with others'.............IT IS THE DAYTRADING..UR ULTIMATE SKILL WILL BE TESTED
UNLESS EXECUTION MASTER..AND GREAT SURVIVAL SKILL'DONT COME'...however its a reality checking m/c to know where u stand in trading arena.

here i write about a system..developed by jeff.
5 day momentum method
background : strong trending market
principle : pullback for fewdays and then again resume move
1-2-3-4 pattern [3day pullback]
pullback near 20dma and again moving up.
why? with this pullback and hni plan to enter.hence new moneyflow..
high momentum,high probability trade

scan.; 1.strong trending candidate
2. use oscillator pullback
3.trend u enter.

indicator: adx..strength of direction
rel. strength ..ok
filter ; adx>30..+di>-di..di=demand index
rel to other stock /nifty ..BETTER.
stokastic..%k<40 oversold indicator
set up



strength of the system is % k must be allowed to move be applied to bull market.

so from beginner u r moving on u atleast know how to survive..irrespective of market u can run ur family by winning against other traders.
so u r developing trading philosophy...plan new fight better.
so it is trade universe.3terms i introduce...exhausive, exclusive and intersection ie. interrelation between 2 element.
exhausive gives micro view.

so before reaching to become a goes through various way to question and answer this 3 element...[may be in different name].he knows how far he understands...his now practice on regular basis[system]

and follow it diligently[discipline]
so i use 3 statistical term....

now u see all good thread mode..nothing but ..can be expansion of 3 idea.

any other idea....yes EXECUTION.I DONT UNDERSTAND AS SLIPPAGE A BAD ELEMENT..BUT CV OPENS MY EYE,...i miss 3trades for slippage in intraday.
also some profit booking idea in real the difference with beginner and pro clearer to me..its IMPLEMENTATION.




Well-Known Member
next i deal ......start of an equity trader in indian market
...........................................................................discussion on stock trading.
goal : learn to earn
how that is possible
approach : kiss
stock trading is a supplier of professional trader[to cut their pocket and earn]
this art can be studied......
this art can be practiced
to become a successful trader ......u have to be like trader[pro].
understand few real sense can do it
one characteristic of good trader...they all learn in bear market...practice skill in upmove/gestation period.........and make money in bull market
ofcourse there are specialist[superstar].....option trader/bear master/computered programmed scalp trader.
........let me explain it....superstar
.......option direction right moment take position
bear master...rarely trade,..but deadly accurate
computered programmed scalper...master to flow with direction validity[o.5hr ]
..............this 3superstar...r born out of successful trader...with lot of polish

most fool try to learn or experiment in so called late phase of bull they lose...
only some of them ready to study....reason of their failure.........
and some mad[like me].......consider market as a puzzle ......try to solve ......they know illusion...but they love them..get more and more involved.....occasional money..occasional loss ..keep them in path.
suddenly they get they become earner to learn from market....on consistent basis.
they have openion..they have system.......but most importantly they interwin self and market
......they find out on a particular time frame they can guess better..with or without ta/with or without fa..but definitely use some form of market sentiment.....
now..when another element position size they master.......normally they earn well until ego catch them....mind it ..their system not betray......its the self sabotage,breaking own rule.....cause of fall
first a trader must define......whether market is presently in trend......or tradezone.
how to define it...........let us assume indian market......daily chart....for monday volatile.....
hourly chart...up bias.....but weekly chart ..negative .
.....hence.....2approach.....for safety watch only
for @low ..and sell @top...based on my tool william%r.....in14..hrly chart
..on those 2stock..which i consider candidate for monday..
remember play plan of tradezone......and in trend r entirely different
......even in down trend........restraint to aggressive trade.
.......think control of greed......and all precaution ......chance of wrong be eliminated.....[ur trade can be wrong..but not ur assumption]
trend termination is an imp concept to learn.....
with poor experience......first time loser ......normally hold and while market fall....lose more...
with frustration learn value of stop....
in next short term bull book profit early.....only to see great bull run..
later curse oneself for missing oppurtunity
....this is normal phenomena...[great mechanical traders must excuse me...because for them gamerule a little bit different] for all others future self development is necessary.
ie. how to put stop...and how to run profit trade....this concept for simplicity many a trader using % stop..some by atr........i prefer sar...because of limited time
though pattern break pt...and stop below that ......i find another good approach.
normally norms of 4quarter me to understand with fluctuation in 55ema..
particularly on result week.....expectation vs..realisation .....reflection of them on price...i find a main strength in stock trading.
yes i believe in news trading it gives me money....i dont teach it as its too much subjective......still i provide 2hints[basically money making oppurtunity i am supposed to give ]
all knows bell weather info result ....given good .....then price is not reacting properly....
so dont put much money in this sector
...if infy good/tcs good...also price moving immediate 2nd grade polaris / gtl...a short term low risk speculation style.
.........another case i mention....order book......recent publish[may be some month back..@220-230 zone psl is getting good order.......from oilcompanies for pipeline.....which definitely improve bottomline..stock at nearly yr buy at near understanding new accumulation is going on ......u have to take entry to make money.
....if u watch minutely with volume spread/order flow/ money flow technique...[any one is sufficient]...u shall see price upwards bias was shown then...220- 230....psl.
why i can not be a pure technical trader...?
because...fundamental value of a stock ...i believe is always reflected in price...
but if something hidden..........that gives me a low risk trade to earn money missing lot of oppurtunity...making mistake on regular basis av 8-10 every yr...
i can say definitely the 'value' dynamic....never use concept of eyes of beholder'...that is fundamental reason of my wrong trade.
....what is simple term...the reflected marketsentiment...+ business model with company profitability as shown in price...which normally oscilate in a band. i put a simple model ....say price fluctuation within..+/- 2.5% is random
crossing 3% above..>5%..definitely a trend......that is biasness towards a direction which can be traded profitably.
trend factor..random factor..newsflow[new event].....definitely coexist in market
..........depending upon u as market observer...consider which one is oppurtunity for u
...and when and risk....not suit avoid
smaller timeframe u trade u have to be more mechanical.......
larger timeframe[at least 3month view]...improve accuracy[directional bias]
without trade management never trade.......otherwise u enjoy thrill on market..paying money
....winner trade..allow more time to run.
............with uncertainity watch.........never trade on call[ u can use call to find save time...but due diligence must]
......analise past trade
what is the right way to do intraday?
.................its very easy.
define the day first ........upday..down day ..uncertain day ..volatile day
expected range of the day
.....uncertain day i dont trade..only watch.
all other 3day i have technique......entry and exit technique
......eod study gives me strength list
so strong strength buy candidate for up day........
exhausted candidate for volatile day..
and poor strength for down day......
normally with good order flow i enter in radar ..air help me to boat smoothly
for short term technique is entirely different...a support swing pt i dont short
for basic chart better..
but personally i suggest ...dont come in market below 4 yr study......losing is very easy
.....u r from which city i dont know......if u join mta.....local chapter or on request they shall give u nearby person.
just go into detail u shall get .....what u deserve.
ur quote never suggests u go through in detail.for me u have just started learning....collected material only.
i guide only pro [ call giver/ta/rm] who watch market ...have reqd basic knowledge..
...starting from basic ....really i dont know........those come and do some fine tuning for money earning skill.....[ i get joy of directing right.]
...on helping .....since my friends suggest to give...why not......i try to write some of my experience/real fact which may be useful as a its in india..
from duty to contribute to people.
so i try to write some 4 thread........
greatest inspiration here is vvonteru....
i also learn something from many a boarder learning is a continous process......i also practice to learn.....though family and job commitment take away my time.
pm traderji....he may help u
since u have ask for ta ...only that part i shall show some hints.
....ta helps timing. works on probabilistic model ....with experience one can learn.i start to learn in 1991...d.cassidy ....basic ta book.....use of volume/some pattern it take me 2 yr to learn basic[some theory......i am a poor learner]
.....only paper cutting ......and capital market ta mag[long time stop publication]....r available in indian market......
only 2001.....computerised trade......availability of nse and pc........brought me again to old art.....mean while i face 2 quack......who consider they know...i part some money....only to know they r quack........this is the fact u face now......thats why u insist to learn from qualified .
as bse...../nse use data in meta format.....this software..was in india from i study this my learning curve........again i repeat it takes time [ afterall i am a parttime learner......not even a sharp college student]
....i face dilemma like u .......lucky to learn from cbot
in 2002......but i try to learn trading.....useful part of ta.
concept of break out is imp......
concept of support buy r useful........
most imp is predict market danger zone
since u ask for hard core ta.......i shall stick to it.......which i learn later
....for qualification,......learn trend first......
defn of up/down......volatile.......
next distribution /accumulation
........this must be applied on nifty
........then study,..........fibonacci
then study pattern .....psychology behind each pattern
....imp one for actual trading.......triangle /flag./1-2-3 bullish market ..cup and handle
...then learn bearish one.....h&s..2t/3t.........and what condition they fail
learn short imminent reversal......oneday/ 2day sp. pattern bullish/bearish reversal based on candlestick
next up and gap down.......use it to judge strength of other purpose.....till u grasp it fully..
after this u should u can look through indicator.....
use ma........dual ma.....experiment with many alternatve.......remember just basic......
smaller one cutting and move up.....shows upward bias.
take a suitable gauge strength of market
when u know more study one overbought/oversold one .....i prefer william%r
use it in tradezone.......
next level to define and predict........trend or non trend.........which as per me a trader must learn first......2/3 tools available choose any one
....spend time on it........patience pays come developing a system based on technical.....ha ha..its ur job
.....btw....without divergence study do nothing
u think u another 2tool ...advance decline and new high/low data......
and raw moneyflow data...particularly fii/mf

.....this is only ta......better use stop/ comes and goes.
....btw u lose due to poor mm......may have listen to some giver
hope this may help email is always given..but i dont guide non pro
note :sorry my friend ......i copy paste this today only i write in a thread on question basis...i duly apologize on rude way of call a reality.but this discussion is not totally out of context.
next i try to throw some light on rsc......rel strength comparative.....
its a good tool ...first extensively advocated by mark boucher in his course....
its momentum tool.....strength of index vs a share.......a stock in a particular sector rank..
....i use it suggested in helps to find where the action is .......
......give a suggestive list of laggard if u handle portfolio
next work on money management /risk control


Well-Known Member
first one has to be a trader....jump to successful trading....sp. knack for option trading then he has to master......then only he has to unlearn .....and know real market.........what market is not likely to safe method.......
then suitable strategy ...for +ive expectency has to be trial run....then only to be applied.
.......that learning and doing..i feel complex....for a start of a new stock trader'....its violating KISS.
......thats why i dont like to discuss .....]trading psychology
to understand.....let us have go through great trader .....livermore........
3books r available on him them to understand ......speculative idea....when to fold to initiate a position.....under what condition we fail
next we can go through......dr elder......greatest book-trader i believe
his 3work r classic.....also 2 may take one yr..worth it
next u read van tharp/ari kiev.......any clarify further trading psychology

read basic balance sheet/profit loss statement.
....order flow how affect profitability of a company without vision management is doomed to failure
.......what constraint makes a business failure in reality
btw.....i find rarely people know fa.......those we see r mba/cfa..without vision......maxm they produce a report for a company.....on a structured format.
[my comment may hit hard but i stick to it,.......ask av iim prof.....why he loses in trade....u shall understand what i mean to say]
TA.........only i comment learn basic first......but go in depth.....half knowledge is injurious to financial health which time u can understand....calculate/visualise accurately better than others.
learn risk management ........its not swimming but life jacket
so now make some adventure.............maxm 3month....
comeback and watch now......u as a trader i as a trader apply in optimum level .....what i have learned.
what is my mistake. i can improve my profitability.
one timeframe lower and one time frame higher ......can improve my trade vision...or make it complex?
so my swot is how i could defne indian market.....
where i can see oppurtunity
......chance of being accurate vs. high risk
.....if after slippage/commision.....can i make a decent profit out of this probable trade...
if yes.......go ahead......dont bother
now ur equity curve suggest -ive return,......reread entire thing.....[have i not said half learning is dangerous thing]
........for further market sentiment ....use it as a filter
how many years it may take for u , i dont know...[i can only say mine.....7yr]
........and still grasping......
so further learning i start......particular stock........which move and fall and what condition
next volatility........
to understand volatilty we start first range of a day......and gap concept.
reversal concept in price at top and at bottom.......
....yes i work on it......but predictively i am not sure.
....but i can say before reversal some ...peculiar phenomena observed...but that is case to case basis[on stock.....i can not generalise it]
....historical volatility.......and comparison of it in a good tool....
read toby crabel and larry connors[ fame]
so coming back to KISS
use intraday strong reversal as entry........those who entered market and hold on friday..2-3pm know......what i mean
how u can learn to do that...........observation......i have dt3/metastock.....with viratech when i see 2005-06.....and march'2007.......i know price behave before bottoming out in indian market no doubt its a risky trade.....but worth to be taken.
concept of copy book....buyday..hold....sell [today i shall]. hrly....chart has given clear signal......i only have follow it
lot of backtesting gimmick i hear.......let me present a real one......simple but effective for short term/intermediate.
.......just see last 2yr data.....when the result it affect price,........for individual bse gr a stock......if future earning guidance it behaved...that week,....
if nothing it behaved.....price behavior with expectation.......
shock in both +/- direction.......later bounce back or distribution
.....its the real tool .....which gives predictive way to earn ......not very math oriented[alas i betray math enthuastic /OR my operation research knowledge no way helps me........infact it helps to lose creating a blockade of being right '/ a know better trap'........and still i do my level best to unlearn it,......but in professional service game theory.....and PERT ...HELPS ME LOT..]
THOSE WHO R CORE TA BELIEVER...... i suggest...use omnitrader in game mode. change 1bar @a time..see prediction........on any stock which u want to bar to right comes...predict...again come next one......enjoy this paper trade/ur guessing
this suggestion r not for intraday......but a basic approach to understand stock trading with mentioned in thread heading
for stock trading learner........i believe patience to learn ....spend time is very imp.
restraint has to be practiced. a concept of treating trade as business to checking bill and fund u can do more right trade,......
.......the concept of risk mangement and responsibility taking.
......then come knowledge ...ta/fa/psychology amalgamated
....after doing swot for market reality
....and market is future oriented......moneyflow and volatility r two key 5yr atleast in indian research on it[self study] result vs expectation affects price.......
on what postulate u investrading...........if scenario change......get out first,think later.
if possible,learn market that in a particular time frame.....u can enter near bottom....and exit near top past trade.
develop a derisk method if u want to earn from market in long term.......erase ur mistake pattern
hope it helps


Well-Known Member
. element
1]why u want to trade ?
2]what u want to trade?..stock..f&o,commodity,forex..
...for every game rules r different..though certain generalisation possible.
3]u must understand reason behind market move...
4] a broadbased price direction idea.
5]what present price direction tells u.
6]the observer with money will join in which side...bull or bear
7]ur risk analysis skill
8] a theoritical trade plan...condition of entry...
holding condition..
exit policy..
9]an actual practice of execution to do so
10]why u miss the cup? after trade analysis
11]behavior modification to improve...
12] learn money management..
13] where u use leverage..
14] a network of info.
15] a thorough knowledge on a particular software
16] a balanced life to handle allthing carefully
.............many good member has given their view ...for developing one.......
...first check how much u can digest?
ur execution skill...methodical approach for time management
for value of a good broking house. thread from SAINT.TRADERJI.CREDIT VIOLET...
...then after..u do what u like
then learn money management...
it takes nearly 2yr to get basic
if u can afford..take course from safety in the market..they teach trading
in trading......stoping self sabotage is one of the key theme
I guess there are 2 reasons, the first one is during the market hours all the news/new data/info that hits the wires will be digested by the investors and priced into the tape slowly when they understand what the data means, but after the market close the market will not will not open till the next day, all the news about the companies then tries to get priced into the stock at once, (just like opening the dam gates),

the second reason is, there is a saying that the "markets are opened by amateurs and closed by the professionals", if there is a good news the stock jumps up 20% and slowly comes down to come down to 5% gain and if there is bad news about a company the -20% down then corrects to -5%, amateurs wants to buy at any price and sell at any price depending on news ,if there is buying or selling at market open the market may go against that during the day, but when you see heavy selling during the end of a day or heavy buying during the end of the day generally the next day will follow suit, "buy with the professionals and sell to amateurs.......the reason behind gap up/down r well explained by raosrinivas. up/down.. fade trading r very useful .
normally amateurs get they have no plan to trade with it......instead they must write what to ..if gap up .....this particular value....again another set......if gap up another value......always by price and flow of market.........whether its diminishing or increasing........this is essence of strategic day trading
so my is a brief
for stock trading learner........i believe patience to learn ....spend time is very imp.
restraint has to be practiced. a concept of treating trade as business to checking bill and fund u can do more right trade,......
.......the concept of risk mangement and responsibility taking.
......then come knowledge ...ta/fa/psychology amalgamated
....after doing swot for market reality
....and market is future oriented......moneyflow and volatility r two key 5yr atleast in indian research on it[self study] result vs expectation affects price.......
on what postulate u investrading...........if scenario change......get out first,think later.
if possible,learn market that in a particular time frame.....u can enter near bottom....and exit near top past trade.
develop a derisk method if u want to earn from market in long term.......erase ur mistake pattern
r ready to learn.
for .....the little book that beat market.
......understand condition why price of a stock moves up?
how far present scenario ..discounted in price
go to
concept on intraday, is a difficult trade proposition...
first of all ..why u want to intraday trade? it hobby ....or to earn...
what is ur execution system.........why to buy or sell ...
market sentiment+yesterday close biasness...
do u know really any new event...not reflected in price already?
what is ur personal bias on u believe price supreme...
.......unless technically strong ,mathematically inclined...and can scan real time...with thrust
......its an will only lose money..........but...with right attitude..
and proficiency its a lucrative business
support and resistance r dynamic....
moreover...depending on variation on varies
...static if similarity with daily pivot...reason of most loss .
...instead follow idea of cluster of price zone...
..this is one of right approach...
..alternative..openioned idea...but not conviction...key is make more money when right,less loss when wrong
A good trader will always make a good analyst,not true for the reverse.

Analysis may be technical,as in levels,stoploss etc or fundamental as in inflation,growth etc.Always hindsight and foresight required

Decision making is instantaneous,in realtime.
.........................Find Support Based Buy In Normal Market...and Momentum Based Pullback Buy In Bullish Market Useful Entry X..identifying Pattern...r My Edge
......stop Loss ...execution Still Lot To Learn
Next Is What Maxm Help I Can Get From Others....and Leverage Skill
....another Typical Thing...i See Tv To Get Result Flash/news...never For Openion...hence I Alone Responsible For My Failure'....
pl study bse ....sector strength......and compare with last quarter..........u dont reqd call giver to earn
however a defined strategy.....suiting must
as market is losing strength....on individal high volume counter he does fade trading....
professional dealers r doing now that[ unless u have trained eye dont experiment it] what i mean to say
1. he has a trading skill
2. its suit him[high risk taking young individual , dont predict market....just follow order flow....when its bearish, a particular pivot bias ....where resistance may act based on dynamic condition. checking.....what media wants to fade today
4.understanding of market as extended bull run
5.implementing strategy
how to use
its the excellent site from india......for traders......popularised by a trader/call writer from mumbai as mentioned in recommendation in bottom.
it deals on sector relative stength.....good individual pick......using strength
those future traders normally earn by alogrythm based on metastock eod/hrly chart.....used ....for candidate.
in intermediate term trading signal r discussed....with high success rate
[yes i try to learn from traderji.....but he has time again i suggest if he could take a course....on trading by himself like train the traders' @mumbai]
....the newsletters r worth its value......a trading philosophy implementable by av. joe
....atleast u have edge to trade professionally
.................................................. .
the direct site traderji.......formatized.....depending upon ur level ..queries some pt i touch
1.choice of broker
2.stock or f&0
4.risk/money management
5.developing a system
6.ta as a tool for trader for trading
8.useful fundamental analysis
9.system implementation exercise
10.resources....excellent book/literature collection
......some other in lighter vain and ofcourse crowd puller tipstar
.....overall one should be a member of it.....with basic philosophy to learn & earn
from market
here i give hint of a word called the context of trading.
we start trading from family/own interest/others talk[peer syndrome]....and related job
soon we learn how much water actually we r in.
we may have earn / creates inquisitive mind to learn further....atleast to know what to learn........yes with self ordinary why 'search person.....think what is called a defined way
the class called what to do they have not understand word ....REALISATION
it may be call taking/greed drive......or fear driven thrown out of market'lot......who knows /smells again......turn TRADER.
so predictive mode start with search of literature/article....qualified analyst.
few who survive .....understand .....imp of solo journey......continuation concept of work
in the word of cv......a master craftsman.
so price or economypredictive road........2 distinctive journey path evolve in market place.
learn and learn is motto then
we all know main driving where money is business and old days of ancestors........nomad to stay near good river.
so now all know why......fii came in india
so think like them where they put money[before putting it actually]
......yes i have read a book on indian industry ....economic development 2002..12.
a costly one 9500/- @ prospect upto ..2007.....and interpolative predictive target....on 2012 when money flow starts .......u should see .....from price flow....predictive mode........just take proper action.
....yes thats why i am an old man
let me present another known tips followed by present aggressive pro.
its regarding future.....though can be applied in high volume cash....basic idea momentum.
the runaway market [bullish upbias,continuity].....attracts trader more....also joes in later on.
candidates shows extra strength.....concept hint also given good market showing strength on great from excellent trading we all know now....however few could re-enter this high risk-high reward ratio trade style....based on market +bias,....then strong sector..then leader/....for short ....
weak sector /then laggard.
so market bias.......and sector strength r criteria......basically scanner is used in metastock to find relative strength comparison......or relative performance high one
then sort by we normally can follow max 3trade at a CANDIDATE FOR NEXT DAY/WEEK r prepared ....what can be execute grab oppurtunity
.......its rightside of chart showing oppurtunity bias.
so trade is taken as per ur criteria..of entry/exit.......when price starts move up.....and stall.
a recent entry.....of mrpl @54........or ongc @860....clarify trade logic.
even as per Mr Mark Boucher the no 1 tool......2nd one is.......where the growth is.,which......i express in last a single word [proactive].....though another word REALISATION calls on.
............some pro .....broad market analysis.....and leading sector canslim style...USE SAME THING.
......for amateur......tradersedgeindia.....or moneytimes's profitrak power publish this for indian market
note: this may be attempted by experienced trader.....high risk attitude must suit him....
commendable adaptability is reqd......though system testing shows good return....with call around 60% accuracy


Well-Known Member
.key concept is u have to build a base
2. price and you .......reading price movement rightly
3.direction of trade
4.a system and how aggressively to trade
5.a trade is based on mistakes of others[ploy in chess terms]
6.bma--broad market analysis
go where the strength is
direction and strength of present market
7.location of obstruction which can affect price
8.when i have an edge and aggressive i shall put money
9.some high probability pattern
10.effective trade management
11.leverage strategy
12.when not to trade......%age of random trade failure idea
Indicators are a personal choice and most indicators give reliable trading signal. However the trick is to use them often over a long period of time to understand how they behave under different market conditions. Then only will you get the desired results from that indicator
About 30-40% of my trades are not profitable. The Maximum Loss I take on any single trade does not exceed 1% of my trading capital.

It does not take too long to cover up any loss as I trail profitable trades which enables me to capture a good 70-90 % of its trended move.
Best Wishes!
do not do intra-day trading. I prefer positional trades where the holding period can be anywhere between weeks to months.

My method of selecting stocks to trade in are different. I do not use any technical indicators. I visually scan through the bar charts every day/week for consolidation/congestion patterns and trade breakouts of those patternsOnce in a trade I keep adding more positions (as soon as the current stoploss reaches break even level) in the direction of the profitable trendI primarly use MetaStock

3) I do not use any indicators. You can read the anatomy of my recent trade at

4) I primarly trade equities in both cash and futures. I find the equities market more profitable and easier to trade
..................................I prefer the ERS when compared to the RSC. The ERS is superior because it compares a single stock to all the other stocks in the market and ranks that stock from 1 to 99. The RSC drawback is that it only compares a single stock to another single stock or index.

I personally use the Trend Trading Newsletter for the daily ERS reading and trend signals.
If I go long I use the previous 3 bar low as my stoploss.

I personally use chart patterns as mentioned in my earlier post. If you are seriously interested in chart patters I would suggest you get Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas N. Bulkowski
__________________I swing trade breakouts of chart patterns like pennants and flags.

For exampe after a stock has made a new three month high on the daily chart (this confirms an uptrend) I wait for a consolidation of at least a week (during which time that chart could form a pennant or flag)

I then go long only on a close above the previous 5 day high and ride the trend with a trailing stop below the previous days low.
I search for stocks manually. I visually go through about 100-150 charts every day. This gives me a better feel of what patterns could be developing in every stock.
A new three month high confirms and indicates that the stock has begun an intermediate uptrend.

A three month high is 63 bars on the daily chart and not 90 bars. You can easily scan for stocks making a new 3 month high using the following formula in MetaStock:

c> ref(hhv(c,63),-1)
The other things that I consider apart from price trends is volume ( I prefer to trade large & mid cap high volume stocks) and most important ERS.

I select sectors with the highest ERS and then stocks within that sector with the highest ERS. This helps me select the best performing stocks within the best performing sectors. Most amatuers make the mistake of selecting stocks that have fallen the most and are cheap. However to be successful in trading one should buy into stocks which have the HIGH ERS readings and short sell stocks with LOW ERS readings.

Volatility is important for intra-day traders and not for medium to long term position traders. In fact do you know that stocks in strong trends have low volatility.
______For more details on ERS visit

ERS is a ranking system of the weighted performance of stocks over a constant time period.

The Trend Trading Picks Newsletter and the Trend Trading Picks Weekly Newsletter provides the external relative strength rankings of most of the stocks listed that are constituents of the NSE Nifty, NSE Nifty Junior and the CNX MidCap 200 Index.____________
Best Wishes!
To go short you need to confirm a downtrend first. For this look for a new 3 month low and not 3 month high. So the formula for the scan would be

...........Your approach should vary depending on the time frame you would like to trade. If you a day trader you will have a strategy which will be different from a swing trader. A swing trading strategy will be different from a position trading strategy. So first you have to decide on the time frame you would like to trade in and then develop a trading strategy to suit that style.
Short Selling is the selling of a security that the seller does not own, or any sale that is completed by the delivery of a security borrowed by the seller. Short sellers assume that they will be able to buy the stock at a lower amount than the price at which they sold short. Short sellers make money if the stock goes down in price.

Swing is a term most commonly used when referring to a situation in which the price of an asset experiences a significant change over a short period.

Swing Trading is a short-term trading strategy in which a trader attempts to capture gains by holding a security for only a few days
The 2% stoploss really depends on your trading capital. If you have a very large capital your stoploss could even be as low as 0.25% to 0.50%. If you have a very small trading capital then one has to trade with a larger stoploss of maybe 3-5% of you trading capital. I always keep my stoploss the same while taking positional trades - last 3 days low for long trades and last 3 days high for short trades. If you can use a system tester check out its profitibility.

If I find that the stoploss is to large (during highly volatile times) I normally reduce the position size to fit into my % rule of money management. Keep in mind that one should not change the stoploss to fit into your money management but rather the position size. If you find that the difference between the entry price and stoploss is too large and you cannot take the loss then do not take the trade.

I do not change my trading strategy during the first three days of the month or last three days of the month. The trading strategy remains the same
In highly volatile markets it is always better to swing trade. Your stoploss should be the swing low and if you do your analysis correctly the chance of your stoploss getting hit will be lower.

I use the previous 3 bar low or the swing low whichever is lower.

I would suggest you wait for a pullback and then BUY only after it closes/crosses above its previous bar's high.

If I entered a trade at this level I would use the previous 3 bar low or swing low whichever is lower as my stoploss.

Amaraja was a good swing trade. However it looks ready for a pullback/correction. Iwould suggest you to make a list of 50 stocks which you should visually scan daily for such setups. I am sure you will not be disappointed
trade or trend?This is the dilemma most traders go through. It is generally recommended to use trend following indicators in the daily chart when the weekly ADX is rising and oscillators in the daily chart when the weekly ADX is falling.
__________________You can enter the next day immediately after a breakout out of the pattern. Taking a trade is probably the most common heartache faced by market timers and all market traders, and is only compounded when it turns out that it would have been a profitable trade.

"Uncertainty is a powerful emotion that can weaken the resolve of even the best of market timers." You need to get rid of this.

Mark Douglas, an expert in trading psychology, says this about trading fears in his book "Trading in the Zone."

"Most investors believe they know what is going to happen next. This causes traders to put too much weight on the outcome of the current trade, while not assessing their performance as "a probability game" that they are playing over time. This manifests itself in investors getting too high and too low and causes them to react emotionally, with excessive fear or greed after a series of losses or wins.

As the importance of an individual trade increases in the trader's mind, the fear level tends to increase as well. A trader becomes more hesitant and cautious, seeking to avoid a mistake. The risk of choking under pressure increases as the trader feels the pressure build.

All traders have fear, but winning market timers manage their fear while losing timers (as well as all traders) are controlled by it. When faced with a potentially dangerous situation, the instinctive tendency is to revert to the "fight or flight" response. We can either prepare to do battle against the perceived threat, or we can flee from this danger.

When an investor interprets a state of arousal negatively as fear or stress, performance is likely to be impaired. A trader will tend to "freeze."

There are four major trading fears:

Fear Of Losing

The fear of losing when making a trade often has several consequences. Fear of loss tends to make a timer hesitant to execute his or her timing strategy. This can often lead to an inability to pull the trigger on new entries as well as on new exits.

Fear Of Missing Out

Every trend always has its doubters. As the trend progresses, skeptics will slowly become converts due to the fear of missing out on profits or the pain of losses in betting against that trend.

Fear of Missing Out on Profits

This fear is usually felt during runaway rallies. All your friends are talking about the incredible profits they are making every day. If you really look at this in the right perspective, it is a very dangerous kind of fear. It eventually causes you to buy in, and of course, when you and thousands of others who feel the same way react at the same time, the market is finally at its top.

Fear of Being Wrong

The desire to be "right" is in direct opposition to the ability to be successful.

The desire to be "right" is in direct opposition to the ability to make money.

A market timer's desire to be right, to be able to tell his friends how successful he or she is, can become so powerful, that a he or she winds up second guessing, the "strategy." Taking winners too quickly, or holding onto losers in the hopes that they will come back, or at least break even.
Best Wishes!


market Direction is most important as majority of stocks move in the same direction of the market. One should always trade in the direction of the market.

I do not BUY 100 Days HIGH. Please read the discussion again.

The reachable % profit yearly depends on your trading style and how the market behaves. One cannot exactly pin point this figure.
__________________These are called pivot points. If you do a search around this forum you should find the formula. use the 3 month high to identify stocks that are in an uptrend. Once the stock is in an uptrend I transfer it to a separate folder and then watch it for consolidation patterns. The 3 month high/low can be used to identify stocks for swing or position trading.

When long I keep a stoploss at the previous 3 bar low. When I am short I keep a stoploss at the previous 3 bar high. I keep this stoploss irrespective of how the market or that stock behaves.
Thats probably because most analyst are not professional traders and are unable to decipher the disinformation of the markets.

I could not find disinformation in my dictionary, but it is a term coined in the intelligence community and now in broad use. In intelligence parlance it means false information designed to mislead and confuse the adversary.

I am not suggesting that the markets have any volition or that there is a conspiracy among insiders to fool the rest of us. This is something that just happens because of the nature of markets.

William Eckhardt is one of "wizards" Jack Schwager interviewed for his book, The New Market Wizards. Eckhardt was the partner of mega-millionaire Richard Dennis. It was his bet with Dennis about whether trading skill could be taught that led to the formation of the famous "turtles." Eckhardt put it this way. "The market behaves much like an opponent who is trying to teach you to trade poorly."

A common formulation of this phenomenon is the concept of random reinforcement. Traders are not rewarded with a profitable trade every time they do something right, nor are they penalized with a loss every time they do something wrong.This makes it exceptionally difficult to figure out what is right and what is wrong. Compare this to an electric fence. Every time you walk by and don't touch it, you feel fine. Every time you touch it, you receive a painful shock. It doesn't take a man or animal long to learn how to relate to an electric fence.

Think how much easier learning to trade would be if you automatically took a loss every time you failed to follow correct decision-making procedures. At the same time, what if you were always rewarded with a profit when you traded correctly? You would be able to learn the correct trading rules much more easily.
The rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It is also referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias.
The metastock formula for crossing the high or low of the previous 3 days is:

Close crossing above previous 3 day high

Close crossing below previous 3 day low

Maybe this will help you understand it better

You need to draw up trend lines joining pivot lows
............generally wait for 30 minutes before entering the trade. I use the 3llv as a stoploss for the trade.and confirmation by price

........... more like distribution r slowly selling......we amateur r accumulating with bias of up trend may occur after some day.
basically low volatility on weekly atr or by comparison of volatility[historical] define it mathematically.
........volatile day......atr value is high......aprox....5stock [10% of like any way.......intraday......william%r....good....pivot buy of low .....sell @ resistance higher pivot excellently works.....example 1.10.o7......nifty
linda has done pioneer work on it........also volatility based day trader use them
a trader must define what time frame........he shall trade.........a hints given regarding matching though i know my comments r controversial.
1] intraday..........a cool computer man with high speed calculation /software to use in analysis.......and high lebel adaptability......preference to volatile stock with break out
2]one or two trade a day.......eod scanner biased guide....based on reversal.....with price confirmation.....suitable for experienced parttime trader.......with strict stop.
4] at bottom swing.......and hold.....saucer pattern in weekly chart
5]intermediate position player........when a stock is ready to move after consolidation
add position when proven winner..........suitable 10 yr experienced trader in trading, if for day......premarket analysis is biased to only if market opens and trade as expected ..........then take position, otherwise no trade.
which software u use , and signal on realtime basis is far superior way, provided u stick to discipline.
a recent analysis by naveen shows excellent way to handle individual ,as per tune of market.
personally i trade what i scan consist of known share [fundamentally i get/interpret info before others].
and 10%money i trade for experiment.
risk management idea i use.
regarding feel of pattern i consider myself lucky .......its complex .
for intraday........i dont see pattern .........only order flow at high price.
biasness of eod chart , for swing trading ........i am good at
i am discreationary ........performance study on return i use .......stock prefer.
omnitrader scanner saves my time
fundamental info equitymaster/capitalmarket i use.
callgiver..........i dont trust
.......................many a mistake i make here & there,but profit booking and encash it i do
why ta ?to guess future or to go with flow
both r different type of model
next.......can we predict swing low /swing high intermediate term,....or bias to be confirmed by price action.
..........which timeframe shall i trade?
how a higher one and lower one help in decision making?
next a indepth study.........which indicator suits u
so this 4 basic pt ............must understand and apply in trade.
so after this 1st level............learn trend or tradezone..........which condition exist in market, near future,..........chance of transition.
so detail realisation is must..............for trend.........transition
interrelation with news .........and moneyflow...............can u see this on chart?
...............3rd level
can u put this mathematically and program it?
answer........for me i am novice an impossible event.
so i calculate, with if and but..........have no other alternative takes time so i trade on eod,.....and on past occurance of pattern.
then how can i using blackbox tool of omnitrader,.....some scanner of metastock..........and putting more money on winner.
yes some knowledge on volatility by unique study i have but still on experimental basis.
for total a tool called aroon......................from metastock and use support/resistance.........for risk/reward...........u shall not search another occupation
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