My Journey In Technical Analysis

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
2008 some more experience and lessons:

1. Stocks in 2008 with good books many lost in the windfall

2. if you have tested your present stocks with respective to 2008 it won't help

3. Method should have a point where you stop entering stocks which are part of previous portfolio and it must move to new leaders
 

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
Trading after a low freeze in index means reduction in qty it is first step,next point is watching the bid ask spread and momentum of moves...if they are wild just stay away from trading still bid ask spread improves..this is most important part of system trading after all back-testing is not just adjusting ema or changing indicators..its cracking core idea in market which moves it and maintains and protection through risk management and position sizing,investment is also not adding every thing in lows and cracks,we can find most funny investors and traders in social media..Pro(investors or trader) don't earn in every day or market condition ,they have there ways..every body else are just ego busters.
 

iwillwin

Well-Known Member
Trading after a low freeze in index means reduction in qty it is first step,next point is watching the bid ask spread and momentum of moves...if they are wild just stay away from trading still bid ask spread improves..this is most important part of system trading after all back-testing is not just adjusting ema or changing indicators..its cracking core idea in market which moves it and maintains and protection through risk management and position sizing,investment is also not adding every thing in lows and cracks,we can find most funny investors and traders in social media..Pro(investors or trader) don't earn in every day or market condition ,they have there ways..every body else are just ego busters.
Nicely written....superb
 

afin

Rocky Mountain Doomsday Guy
Trading after a low freeze in index means reduction in qty it is first step,next point is watching the bid ask spread and momentum of moves...if they are wild just stay away from trading still bid ask spread improves..this is most important part of system trading after all back-testing is not just adjusting ema or changing indicators..its cracking core idea in market which moves it and maintains and protection through risk management and position sizing,investment is also not adding every thing in lows and cracks,we can find most funny investors and traders in social media..Pro(investors or trader) don't earn in every day or market condition ,they have there ways..every body else are just ego busters.
I hope most people comment on such aspects instead of just boasting what they have added in their portfolio and all without giving any logic or rationale. This is useful. I wish the forum has a save option to save such posts.
 

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
I hope most people comment on such aspects instead of just boasting what they have added in their portfolio and all without giving any logic or rationale. This is useful. I wish the forum has a save option to save such posts.
Boosting and ego centric posts are part of social media /forums every where we can find them..we cannot do any thing,few posts will be very informative..yes saving option always helps..
 

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
Over few months mocking posts on trading /investments are seen, today it showed most ugly side just writing this whole long post for newbie retailer trader or investor

People here thinking that day traders won’t earn by systematic trading and compounding is myth we all know one of our member is doing this in live and , as usual mocking was seen on him

Neither a trader can be super man or investor is super human they all start at point and grow..(Trading/investment )both have hardships..retail investor needs a system to enter and exit at large ..fundamental data can be collected from various sides.

market cycle is based on bull phase, bear phase and side ways, bear phase each fall ,reason can be any thing will be called as black swan and moves in that are rated as sigma moves ,they have levels..

https://www.marketcalls.in/trading-...-about-six-sigma-events-in-stock-markets.html

in that many of the stocks which we hold before the fall ,lose price ,some will perish and some of old fellows will sustain and become multi year wealth compounders. investment cycle ranges from 2 to 8 years..(basing on testing data side from 1991 to 2015)..typical strike rate is 20 to 30 % .(assuming we have stuck at high),off course we will exit the perishing stock as per system

Day trading is not in every bodies capacity ,nor people can succeed in that,as we need to move out of comfort zone .neither investment is a full proof, each have there own hard ships

Hardships in trading:

1.Any valid trading system rule based will not be shared..why ??

Ans) 1. It will not suit every body ,basicing on psychology,DD cycle etc , 2.Risk of losing edge is another reason.

2. people need to start from scratch and have to move..from making a system to risk management

Hardships in investments

  • We need to learn Fundamental analysis,need to have have a system for entry and exit and profit booking , Capital allocation method,risk management ,position sizing should be part of it
  • Time is money and we need years to attain wealth,its not bank FD.if cycle is strong it will take less time.
  • you will grow hearing names of buffet,munger,RJ,RD..they have there own humble beginning and growth, never dream big without considering your size and level of knowledge and most importantly is your knowledge helping in growth or its simply turning you as academic ,which only make us to collect trading and investment quotes o_O

People always think big size in trading is difficult, even you cannot manage big in investment ,start small and grow .

Study dunn composite performance ..which is of bill dunn ,he never changed his system and respected DD a rule based way.

dunn_aug_2019-1-768x574.jpg


Source of chart :https://www.trendfollowing.com/performance/

Don’t be fooling your self by running after short cuts or rush in thinking that its once in a life opportunity , allot time and work on psychology to hold and learn art of staying focused when market is in panic.it the you who have to work on this.

Both (trading/investment ) have hardships as cited above,trading has advantage up to certain level and investment has advantage after a certain level.
 
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XRAY27

Well-Known Member
Happy Ugadi :May this Ugadi Bring joy health and wealth to all the man kind


ugadi-2020-images-telugu (1).jpg
 
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XRAY27

Well-Known Member
My little knowledge on compounding :

Compounding is more lucrative term for traders particularly intra day,there are many misconceptions on compounding,back testing,one of member who started a trade dairy could not answer basic question of mechanical system,back testing terms and started compounding which reached dead end


i’m bring my little knowledge on this ,please go through with of peace of mind



Few points on compounding on intra day through index fut:

Points you need keep in mind:

1. You need a winning mechanical system ..what is that ?? a system with edge that is a system with expectancy ratio with higher R:R ,this first criteria ,with less no of trades with luck factor at low point ,which is objective not subjective ,which I have explained long back in this thread

2.Trades should not cross more then 2 per day on average it should be around 1 per day if you take into account NTD

3.Whole capital calculation is based on DD in point terms…say your Nifty system Max DD is 300 points so capital calculation 2 to 3 times the margin..per lot ,so risk of ruin probability is negated

Ex:300 *75=22500+broker Margin

For scaling I’m going with FRMM ,as per RYAN JONES ,this is not only MM ,each person can constuct his own money management

4. we have to add qty when our profit cross DD points ,above example 300 points..similarly we have to reduce when DD has hit in point terms

i had received many PM from newbies ,some old members , could not answered every PM so bring this faq

FAQ
  • 1. Can scaling be done to stock fut ..no its not possible as mechanical system for stocks or stock fut.will not work in that way
  • 2. Any mechanical system can be used for scaling : No we need to know the DD and its should give less no of trades as I pointed above
  • 3. Why cannot we trade more per day : More trades per day squeezes energy ,almost its a broker rich program ,ultimately account will blown
  • 4. Can we move to 100 lots or 200 lots: yes possible
  • 5. Why a system with all MM and risk management /compounding is not sold or shared : if all is there who will sell a money machine to make others rich,jokes a part risk of slippage with mass usage brings ultimately effects ISL and TSL
  • 6. Why cannot this same principles be used for investment compounding: Risk of Black swan for open position is far big.
  • 7. Watching a trade log of a pro help in cracking his system ?? : Unless you know the exact rules you cannot making any thing.only eye sockets will come out
  • 8.How to making a mechanical system: You need to know back testing in proper way ( its not just adjusting EMA or CHANGING INDICATOR ), for this you need to read books which I have quoted in the thread
  • 9.Can we manage both intra and investment and swing with scaling: For this you need to be trader and trading for living is main step, if you are part time,just stay back go on with investments ,handling needs live market presence
  • 10.Investment can be done with mechanical system : yes can be done with mechanical system ,which is popularly known as quanta fundamental way
  • 11. Discretionary system cannot be used for compounding,many terms of back testing cannot be obtained it will turn in subjective.
Hope this long boring post answers every thing , if any query just post it
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
My little knowledge on compounding :

Compounding is more lucrative term for traders particularly intra day,there are many misconceptions on compounding,back testing,one of member who started a trade dairy could not answer basic question of mechanical system,back testing terms and started compounding which reached dead end


i’m bring my little knowledge on this ,please go through with of peace of mind



Few points on compounding on intra day through index fut:

Points you need keep in mind:

1. You need a winning mechanical system ..what is that ?? a system with edge that is a system with expectancy ratio with higher R:R ,this first criteria ,with less no of trades with luck factor at low point ,which is objective not subjective ,which I have explained long back in this thread

2.Trades should not cross more then 2 per day on average it should be around 1 per day if you take into account NTD

3.Whole capital calculation is based on DD in point terms…say your Nifty system Max DD is 300 points so capital calculation 2 to 3 times the margin..per lot ,so risk of ruin probability is negated

Ex:300 *75=22500+broker Margin

For scaling I’m going with FRMM ,as per RYAN JONES ,this is not only MM ,each person can constuct his own money management

4. we have to add qty when our profit cross DD points ,above example 300 points..similarly we have to reduce when DD has hit in point terms

i had received many PM from newbies ,some old members , could not answered every PM so bring this faq

FAQ
  • 1. Can scaling be done to stock fut ..no its not possible as mechanical system for stocks or stock fut.will not work in that way
  • 2. Any mechanical system can be used for scaling : No we need to know the DD and its should give less no of trades as I pointed above
  • 3. Why cannot we trade more per day : More trades per day squeezes energy ,almost its a broker rich program ,ultimately account will blown
  • 4. Can we move to 100 lots or 200 lots: yes possible
  • 5. Why a system with all MM and risk management /compounding is not sold or shared : if all is there who will sell a money machine to make others rich,jokes a part risk of slippage with mass usage brings ultimately effects ISL and TSL
  • 6. Why cannot this same principles be used for investment compounding: Risk of Black swan for open position is far big.
  • 7. Watching a trade log of a pro help in cracking his system ?? : Unless you know the exact rules you cannot making any thing.only eye sockets will come out
  • 8.How to making a mechanical system: You need to know back testing in proper way ( its not just adjusting EMA or CHANGING INDICATOR ), for this you need to read books which I have quoted in the thread
  • 9.Can we manage both intra and investment and swing with scaling: For this you need to be trader and trading for living is main step, if you are part time,just stay back go on with investments ,handling needs live market presence
  • 10.Investment can be done with mechanical system : yes can be done with mechanical system ,which is popularly known as quanta fundamental way
  • 11. Discretionary system cannot be used for compounding,many terms of back testing cannot be obtained it will turn in subjective.
Hope this long boring post answers every thing , if any query just post it
Great xray bro....and I want to post one such post but unable to do it in proper way .so hesitated.....Its great ...actually traders missing this point ....:up::up: :clap:
 

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