Markets & After hours

DSM

Well-Known Member
Jim Stovall- Author, The Ultimate Gift

Life is really not about what happens to you, but what you do about it!

Money must be seen as a tool to allow you to do what you love to do. Money magnifies everything. "If you love doing good, then money allows you to do more good. But if you love doing stupid stuff, it will allow you to do more of that as well."

Money gives you options and allows you to live on your own terms.

Never buy a map from someone who has never been where you want to go. Be willing to ask for help from those who have been where you want to go.

The quickest way to get to wealthy is to make up your mind to do whatever it takes (that is moral and legal) to achieve it! Then go to work on that goal.

Starting is half the battle of success! And a good plan poorly executed is better than a perfect plan that is never executed.

Change your mind and you can change your life. You have the right to choose your path. You are one quality decision away from anything you want.

Don’t let small challenges become big obstacles. To have no sight is not a big deal, but to have no vision is tragic! Sight is to only see where you are, but vision is to see where you want to go and what you want to be.

Make the decision to invest in yourself by reading great books and exploring new ideas. Poor people have big TVs and small libraries. The rich have big TVs as well, but bigger ideas too!
 

ashu1234

Well-Known Member
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participatory_note





this was by far he best example for me which even i have been a part of myself as a normal trader , i was not a technical guy back then , but when i see it today , it proves me that no government intervention can change the long term trends in hours or even days , and probably no intervention of the government can decide the long term trends of the markets ever , markets has its own mood and pace , it changes its directions/trends when it wants to , but slowly and steadily , any intervention by governments lasts only for few hours at best.

we must note that when markets plummeted after 3 months in jan 08 , even that it was due to other factors , and for me those factors were that the trand had exhausted after 5 years of big bull run, the global melt down was only a a starting point which coincided with the trend reversal, which was not unusual , because it always happens with some kind of news in background , however a technical analyst knows market was exhausted on daily and weekly charts
Hi,
The example sighted above can be looked in other way round. What I see in above example is that govt(regional) do have power if the instrument which is traded is within their reach of compliance.
In above example they simply issued a note for compliance---that PN route will be discontinued and the reaction was a fall, now remember any news has an impact and implication which goes on untill the situation further unfolds. It doesn't fall all the way and market wait for further confirmation of the major events. Take the case of Satyam it doesn't fall in a day, but fell in the coming days as situation unfolds. It do bounce back when biggies stepped in to buy stakes....so anyone talking about long term trend doesn't connects.
Now coming to above example the govt later corrected its statement later which ensured that FIIs can continue to participate, had it not issued the statement market would have fallen in coming days as we all know markets are all liquidity game broadly. So can u be sure if govt haven't supported the next statement long term trend would have continued.....So I will say it was govt intervention again that supported market movement and not long term trend.
Another example is of Gold in Indian markets - See the prices internationally they are at rock bottom and in our market it can make highs anytime if there is even a 10 % short covering internationally.
See market dynamics have changed drastically since 80's where price were sacrosant, now currencies, commodities and foreign money can change a fortune of a country and hence a larger intervention now a days.
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
With the influx of large sums of money by hedge funds, ease of cross-border trading, liquidity provided by central bankers, many of the principals of trading and long term equations have been either been skewed or changed.

For example, ideally stock and commodity prices should have an inverse co-relationship, as lower commodity prices are good for the stock market. However due to liquidity chasing commodity as a means of investment, commodity prices have risen along with stocks and the old relationship between stocks and commodities no longer holds true.

Similarly, bond prices and stock markets have a direct relationship, as lower interest rates drive up the bond prices and are also good for the stock markets. However, during the Asian currency crisis, the stock markets crashed, but the money that was withdrawn from stocks, was looking for a means of safe investment avenue, which was found to be in bonds, thus driving up the bond prices, while the stock markets were crashing.

The only constant in current times is change. So one can hold on to one's belief as long as they work and one should also be willing to reconsider and discard them if they don't.

Hi,
See market dynamics have changed drastically since 80's where price were sacrosant, now currencies, commodities and foreign money can change a fortune of a country and hence a larger intervention now a days.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
With the influx of large sums of money by hedge funds, ease of cross-border trading, liquidity provided by central bankers, many of the principals of trading and long term equations have been either been skewed or changed.

For example, ideally stock and commodity prices should have an inverse co-relationship, as lower commodity prices are good for the stock market. However due to liquidity chasing commodity as a means of investment, commodity prices have risen along with stocks and the old relationship between stocks and commodities no longer holds true.

Similarly, bond prices and stock markets have a direct relationship, as lower interest rates drive up the bond prices and are also good for the stock markets. However, during the Asian currency crisis, the stock markets crashed, but the money that was withdrawn from stocks, was looking for a means of safe investment avenue, which was found to be in bonds, thus driving up the bond prices, while the stock markets were crashing.

The only constant in current times is change. So one can hold on to one's belief as long as they work and one should also be willing to reconsider and discard them if they don't.
DSM

What you have said is absolutely true, intermittent market analysis used to work earlier , but now it does not.What is known to everybody does not work nowadays.

All this is result of Algorithmic trading ,High frequency trading,etc and all the other list of factors that you have stated.
 

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