Market Update by Solidecn.com



BTCUSD - The price falls before the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve

BTC is declining before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that this week the agency will again raise the interest rate by another 75.0 points, and several investors are considering the possibility of growth by 100.0 points at once, as a result of which the rate will be at the highest level since 2008 and will continue to put serious pressure on speculative assets, including digital ones. In the context of rapid inflation, the US regulator will keep interest rates high for a long time, even after they reach the "neutral" level. Thus, the negative impact on the cryptocurrency market will be long-term.



The trading instrument maintains a short-term downward trend. The breakdown of 18750 gives the prospect of further decline to 17800 (June lows), 17187.5 (Murrey [–2/8]), and 16900 (Fibonacci 100.00 extension). The key "bullish" level is 20312.50 (Murrey [2/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it consolidates above it, the quotes may begin to recover to 21875 (Murrey [4/8], the upper line of Bollinger bands), 23437.5 ( Murrey [6/8]), 25000 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%).

Technical indicators reflect the possibility of further decline: Bollinger bands are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is horizontal near the oversold zone.

Resistance levels: 20312.5, 21875, 23437.5, 25000 | Support levels: 17800, 17187.5, 16900
 


Crude Oil - Oil prices are consolidating

Brent Crude Oil prices show near-zero dynamics, consolidating near the level of 91. Pressure on quotes is exerted by expectations of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the interest rate may be raised by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. The Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland are also expected to tighten their monetary policies this week. The increase in interest rates is aimed at containing the sharp increase in inflation, but also leads to a slowdown in economic activity. In particular, analysts assess the risks of a recession in the European economy, which also faced serious challenges due to the energy crisis.



Another negative factor affecting the quotes of "black gold" is the fall in industrial activity in China due to its zero tolerance policy towards COVID-19. Finally, the markets are concerned about the restrictions that apply to the import of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation. Western countries continue to discuss the introduction of marginal prices for Russian "black gold".

Today, the focus of investors will be data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ended September 16. The previous report reflected a sharp increase in reserves of "black gold" by 6.035 million barrels, while the US Department of Energy reported an increase of only 2.442 million barrels.



In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, having reversed upwards at the end of last week. Current readings of the indicators signal in favor of a corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 91, 92.47, 94.5, 96.54 | Support levels: 88.79, 87, 86, 85
 
Walmart - Technical analysis

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting upwards after a significant decline, forming a local ascending channel with boundaries of 132 – 146. Now the quotes have reached the support line of the range, after which an upward wave began. On the four-hour chart of the asset, the price is above the key level of the basic correction of 38.2% Fibonacci around 133 in favor of continuing the positive dynamics, after consolidation above which, the growth may continue to a full correction of 61.8% Fibonacci around 144.



Technical indicators confirm the upward momentum: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, despite ambiguous fluctuations, is moving in the buying zone.
 
Crude Oil - Oil prices are consolidating

Brent Crude Oil prices show near-zero dynamics, consolidating near the level of 91. Pressure on quotes is exerted by expectations of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the interest rate may be raised by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. The Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland are also expected to tighten their monetary policies this week. The increase in interest rates is aimed at containing the sharp increase in inflation, but also leads to a slowdown in economic activity. In particular, analysts assess the risks of a recession in the European economy, which also faced serious challenges due to the energy crisis.



Another negative factor affecting the quotes of "black gold" is the fall in industrial activity in China due to its zero tolerance policy towards COVID-19. Finally, the markets are concerned about the restrictions that apply to the import of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation. Western countries continue to discuss the introduction of marginal prices for Russian "black gold".

Today, the focus of investors will be data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ended September 16. The previous report reflected a sharp increase in reserves of "black gold" by 6.035 million barrels, while the US Department of Energy reported an increase of only 2.442 million barrels.



In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, having reversed upwards at the end of last week. Current readings of the indicators signal in favor of a corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 91, 92.47, 94.5, 96.54 | Support levels: 88.79, 87, 86, 85
 
EURUSD - The US dollar controls the dynamics of the pair

The European currency remains neutral against the backdrop of new negative reports regarding the economic state of the EU. Thus, the Eurostat agency published a study that estimates the price rise for a key food product – bread. In August, its average cost in the EU increased by 18% compared to last year and reached an absolute historical record. Bread prices rose the most in Hungary, by 60% YoY and 10% last month, and the least in France and Belgium, by 10% and 13%, respectively. Thus, food and fuel prices increase, and the inflation rate will continue to rise.



The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0100, 1.0320 | Support levels: 0.9900, 0.97
 


GBPUSD - The pound is preparing to renew the year's lows

The pound has consolidated near another historical low and is being traded in anticipation of new macroeconomic data but investors are paying attention to consumer sentiment now. Yesterday, Prime Minister Liz Truss said that the issue of rationing electricity tariffs is not worth it, as they will be frozen. Ordinary Britons fear the measure will come at a too high current cost: rates have risen sharply in recent times, putting a heavy strain on households that risk a financial crisis by the start of winter.

The US dollar continues to develop positive dynamics in anticipation of today's meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Investors perceived yesterday's data on the housing market as neutral: the number of building permits issued in August decreased to 1.517M from 1.658M, which is a fairly significant drop when taking into account the average values of the current year, and the volume of construction of new houses, on the contrary, showed a significant increase, amounting to 1.575M instead of 1.404M a month earlier.



The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, declining along the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.1462, 1.1686 | Support levels: 1.13, 1.11
 
XAUUSD - Investors continue to reduce their positions in gold

Today the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy will be published. Most analysts believe that the interest rate will be raised by 75 basis points, which could lead to another rise in the dollar and exceed the summer peak of 110 in the USD Index. The price of gold is tightly tied to the price of the US currency, and even taking into account the stability of the precious metal, the growth of the USD Index by 2-3% can provoke a decrease in asset quotes by 1-2%. The main scenario of analysts today assumes such a variant of price movement.

In turn, the demand for contracts for gold has recently declined slightly. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), sellers continued to actively reduce their positions last week, while buyers slightly strengthen them. In the positions of swap dealers, which usually react quickly to any changes in the market, buyers increased their number by 0.535 thousand contracts, while sellers reduced them by 4.059 thousand contracts. As for the general trend, the number of positions has been decreasing for the third week in a row, this time to 97.3 thousand from 103.9 thousand.



On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is holding in a descending channel and after reaching the low of the year at 1650 is still at these levels. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, which remains quite strong: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line again, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new downward bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1650, 1610 | Resistance levels: 1680, 1730
 
S&P 500 - the US market froze in anticipation of the decision of the US Federal Reserve

The Fed's Monetary Policy Meeting is due tonight, and 80% of analysts are suggesting a 75 basis point hike in interest rates to 3.25% for the first time since 2008, with a small group of experts believing the regulator could take extreme measures to combat inflation and increase the rate to 3.50%. Traders are focused on the forecasts regarding the rate's dynamics until the end of the year: Fed officials have repeatedly spoken in favor of a possible period of stabilization of the interest rate, and investors are focused on a preliminary assessment of its length.



The trading instrument is moving within a local downtrend, approaching the year's low at 3640. Technical indicators reinforce the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 3950, 4130 | Support levels: 3830, 3640
 
EURUSD - In anticipation of poor statistics on business activity in the EU

The European currency is showing negative dynamics against its main competitors in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics: analysts predict a decline in business activity indicators for September in almost all leading EU countries. Thus, Composite PMI in Germany may fall to 46.0 points from 46.9 points in August, and Composite PMI in France may fall to 49.8 points from 50.4 points earlier. EU Composite PMI index of business activity in the EU is expected to be 48.2 points, down from 48.9 points in the previous period.

Yesterday, analysts' attention was focused on the US markets. The US dollar renewed the year's high and is currently trading around 111.200 in the USD Index after the country's financial regulator raised its interest rate by 75.0 basis points to 3.25% and provided forecasts for the development of the economic situation. Expectations worsened on all three main indicators: inflation in 2022 is expected at 5.4% from 5.2% previously, unemployment will increase to 3.8% from 3.7% earlier, and economic growth may slow to 0.2% from 1.7% earlier, which most disappointed experts, as the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) confirms the annual recession.



The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.9900, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.9800, 0.965
 


Crude Oil - Growth in US inventories puts pressure on asset quotes

According to a Reuters report yesterday, OPEC+'s target deviation in production is currently around 3.58M barrels per day (about 3.5% of global demand). The excess relative to the August value of 2.89M barrels amounted to 24%. According to cartel representatives, the negative dynamics are observed due to insufficient investment in oil projects in Nigeria and Angola and the impact of Western sanctions on Russian production. Thus, the production of hydrocarbons in Nigeria in August fell by a record 1.0M barrels against fuel theft from pipelines.



On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, approaching the year's low. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 91.15, 96.4 | Support levels: 86.85, 77.66
 

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