long term strategy

sudoku1

Well-Known Member
#13
TECHNICALLY ,invstrs waiting on the sidelines 2 buy into dips should hold on their horses.........
till v close abv the med term bull trigger abv 10875 (for 2day).....it will b wise 2 wait & pay a premium on confirmation.....
though @ some point of time a bottom will b in place....:)
 
#14
I will suggest all the investors not the traders to buy WWIL,DishTV,and Ispat Industry for the long term.....
JP Associate will the best one for long term but only after a 20% decline from the current level ie @ 55-60.
Long term investors can also enter into real state space but not now,as real state sector have some bad news.I will suggest one can enter into unitech @ 18-22,DLF @ 80-95,HDIL @ 50-65,IndiaBulls Real @ 55-70 without any fear of downside risk and definitely will get the suggested range in this quarter. After buying hold for 3 years and see the result.I think the amount will be 4-6 times.If any one wants to ask why I am suggesting these stocks,I am ready to answer...
 
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#15
I will suggest all the investors not the traders to buy WWIL,DishTV,and Ispat Industry for the long term.....
JP Associate will the best one for long term but only after a 20% decline from the current level ie @ 55-60.
Long term investors can also enter into real state space but not now,as real state sector have some bad news.I will suggest one can enter into unitech @ 18-22,DLF @ 80-95,HDIL @ 50-65,IndiaBulls Real @ 55-70 without any fear of downside risk and definitely will get the suggested range in this quarter. After buying hold for 3 years and see the result.I think the amount will be 4-6 times.If any one wants to ask why I am suggesting these stocks,I am ready to answer...
please clarify...
 
#16
WWIL and Dish TV-- whatever said and done this sector is normally a long-term story. You can relate that to how telecom was possibly towards the end of 90s, early 2000 because basically it is a game of acquiring customers and once you acquire those customers possibly over a period of time it pays off. So right now clearly it is in an investment phase and as long as they start getting cash to run their business at least for the next one and a half to two years, I think they should be through. So we need to keep a watch whether the fund flow is happening or not and thankfully I think it is going to happen for both these companies. So from that point of view, I think it is positive.
At this point of time we dont see too much of a downside for these companies but for returns I think one would need to wait for the next one and a half to two years. But in case things work out fine, they could be multibagger. We have seen a stock like Bharti at Rs 21, people were shunning it but then over a period of time since everything went on fine with them as far as the customer acquisition and the business was concerned, we have seen that becoming a multibagger in possibly three-four years. So something similar can happen to Dish TV and WWIL.
 
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#17
Ispat industry---Ispat a long term rally counter(First target upto 40 : second upto 80) and after that a cyclic downside as it is related to commodity (steel).
I am suggesting this stock because it is probably getting a little bit of deferral on its Rs 600 crore loan obligation to IDBI Bank, IFCI Bank and ICICI Bank. So, they have said now you can pay us post May 2010 - where will they pay from is my bigger question. Is steel running away from here? Is global demand for steel going up? Is Ispat in a position at the current steel prices even if they stabilize here? Would they make any money? - remember the company made Rs 600 crore loss in the current quarter. Where are they going to find Rs 600 crore of cash to repay some of these banks? I have consistently maintained this is been one of the weakest players in the steel sector, you only buy Ispat in a roaring bull market in metals because they generate very good delta returns. Weakest players often do so from Rs 10 they will go to Rs 40 and be a 4 bagger, which will even put Tata Steel to shame in a bull market.

But when you get into a bear market for metals, as we are in right now, you have got to stay mile away from an Ispat kind of players. Because they will always go to the brink of bankruptcy in every bear market for metals and this time it is no different. So, you can get a little bit more of a pop because they bought little bit more time for themselves on that payment. But beyond that not to get too excited, you are getting a lot of metal stocks at 2 and 3 P/E. Ispat is not the tree you need to be barking out of because serially they get into this bankruptcy mode with the slightest hint of trouble.

Also on Ispat you need to worry now about some of these banks because this is what the markets fear is that you will have many more Ispats, who will not be able to pay up some of these banks and keep rolling their loans. You have seen it once in the last cycle as well and these are not small repayment obligations, they are Rs 600 crore between three banks. So, more you see issues like Ispat happening you tend to feel fear about what is going on with the banking space and whether more NPL will mount on there.

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#18
JP ASSOCIATE---JP Associate is among one of the heavyweight and really a long term investment stock as it has an upside potential of 47.4% and recorded an impressive YoY revenue growth of 46.9% in this bear market mainly on account of higher than expected contribution from real estate as well as cement segment sales.JP Ass Q32009 reported EBIDTA of Rs 2.47 billion is marred by one time extraordinary provision of severance pay of Rs 450 million for workers of Baglihar project, which the company has just completed. The topline for the quarter stood at Rs 13.2 billion a growth of 47% yoy, driven by 71% growth in revenues of construction division (Rs 7.51 billion) and 15% growth in revenues of cement division (Rs 5.77 billion). Growth in construction revenues was driven by strong execution in key projects like Yamuna expressway road construction, Karachamwangtoo HPP, Baghilhar HPP and Srisailam Canal project.The stock is currently trading at 10X its FY2009 earnings and 7.7X its FY2010 earnings. I believe the stock provides compelling value proposition at these levels.

Also there is much more possibility in future it will split in involving sectors like cement,construction,contracting and civil,hotels etc as I am seeing India Bulls from the year 2001 that IndiaBulls divided into 4 sectors i.e, IB Real,IB Fin,IB Security,IB Retail and the investors of 2001 are enjoying the flavours of all the 4 splitted sectors...

So I think JP Associate a fundamentally a very bullish stock and really a long term story.
 
#20
Dear adultvish
Please quote my suggested reply about long term investment clarification...:cool::cool::cool:

Aiyaz

Dear Aiyaaz

I appreciate your efforts and exchange of info.

As such, I am not in fundamentals, I can only express my thanks for the valuable info provided.
 

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