Learning and Implementing Ichimoku in Forex

[ag_fx]

Kumo Breakout​

Kumo Breakout trading or "Kumo Trading" is a trading strategy that can be used on multiple time frames, though it is most widely used on the higher time frames (e.g.: Daily, Weekly, Monthly) of the position trader. Kumo breakout trading is the purest form of trend trading offered by the Ichimoku charting system, as it looks solely to the kumo and price's relationship to it for its signals. It is "big picture" trading that focuses only on whether price is trading above or below the prevailing kumo. In a nutshell, the signal to go long in Kumo breakout trading is when price closes above the prevailing kumo and, likewise, the signal to go short is when price closes below the prevailing kumo.

See the chart in Figure V below for an example of a kumo breakout buy signal:

Entry

The entry for the kumo breakout trading strategy is simple - when price closes above/below the kumo, the trader places a trade in the direction of the breakout. Nevertheless, care does need to be taken to ensure the breakout is not a "head fake" which can be especially prevalent when the breakout takes place from a flat top/bottom kumo. To ensure the flat top/bottom is not going to attract price back to the kumo, it is always advisable to look for another Ichimoku structure to "anchor" your entry to just above/below the kumo breakout. This anchor can be anything from a key level provided by the chikou span, a kumo shadow or any other appropriate structure that could act as additional support/resistance to solidify the direction and momentum of the trade.

Kumo breakout traders also make good use of the leading kumo's sentiment before committing to a trade. If the leading kumo is a Bear kumo and the kumo breakout is also Bear, then that is a very good sign that the breakout is not an aberration of excessive volatility, but rather a true indication of market sentiment. If the leading kumo contradicts the direction of the breakout, then the trader may want to either wait until the kumo does agree with the direction of the trade or use more conservative position sizing to account for the increased risk.


Exit

The exit from a kumo breakout trade is the easiest part of the whole trade. The trader merely waits for their stop-loss to get triggered as price exits the opposite side of the kumo on which the trade is transpiring. Since the trader has been steadily moving their stop-loss up with the kumo during the entire lifespan of the trade, this assures they maximize their profit and minimize their risk.


Stop-Loss Placement

Being a "big picture" trend trading strategy, the stop-loss for the kumo breakout strategy is placed at the point that the trend has been invalidated. Thus, the stop-loss for a kumo breakout trade must be placed on the opposite side of the kumo that the trade is transpiring on, 10 - 20 pips away from the kumo boundary. If price does manage to reach the point of the stop-loss, the trader can be relatively assured that a major trend change has taken place.


Take Profit Targets

While traditional take profit targets can be used with the kumo breakout trading strategy, it is more in-line with the long-term trend trading approach to simply move the stop-loss up/down with the kumo as it matures. This method allows the trade to take full advantage of the trend without closing the trade until price action dictates unequivocally that the trend is over.

 

[ag_fx]

Senkou Span Cross​

The senkou span cross is one of the lesser known trading strategies within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system. This is mostly due to the fact that the senkou span cross tends to be more commonly used as an additional confirmation with other trading strategies rather than being used as a standalone trading strategy in its own right. However, it is nonetheless a solid trend trading strategy and can definitely be used on its own.

Given that the senkou span cross strategy, like the kumo breakout trading strategy, utilize the kumo for signal generation, it is best employed on the longer time frames of the Daily chart and above. The senkou span cross signal is given when the senkou span A line crosses over the senkou span B line of the kumo. If the senkou span A crosses the senkou span B from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. If it crosses from the top down, then it is a bearish signal. Nevertheless, like all trading strategies within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system, the senkou span cross signal needs to be evaluated against the larger Ichimoku "picture" before committing to any trade.

The thing to keep in mind with the senkou span cross strategy is that the "cross" signal will take place 26 periods ahead of the price action as the kumo is time-shifted 26 periods into the future. This relationship is obvious when one looks at the current price on a live chart, but less so when looking at historical price action. In addition, while all Ichimoku strategies should be exercised with the larger Ichimoku picture in mind, this is particularly important with the senkou span cross. Thus, determining the overall trend on higher time frames first and then taking only senkou span signals that align with that trend on the lower timeframes is the best implementation of the senkou span strategy.

In general, the senkou span cross strategy can be classified into three (3) major classifications: strong, neutral and weak.

STRONG SENKOU SPAN CROSS SIGNAL

A strong senkou span cross signal takes place when the price curve is on the side of the kumo that matches the sentiment of the
senkou span cross.


NEUTRAL SENKOU SPAN CROSS SIGNAL

A neutral senkou span cross signal takes place when the price curve is inside the kumo at the time of the senkou span cross.


WEAK SENKOU SPAN CROSS SIGNAL

A weak senkou span cross signal takes place when the price curve is on the opposite side of the kumo that matches the sentiment of the senkou span cross.

The chart in Figure VII below shows some classifications of the senkou span cross. The dashed vertical lines represent the 26-period relationship between price and the senkou span cross. Thus, point A represents a bullish senkou span cross that can be categorized as a "strong" buy signal due to the fact that price (point B), at the point of the cross, was trading above the kumo. Likewise, point C represents a bearish senkou span cross that generated a strong sell signal due to price's location at point D below the kumo. The senkou span cross at Point E generated a neutral buy signal since price (point F) was trading within the kumo at that point.

Entry

The entry for the senkou span cross trading strategy is relatively simple, though, as mentioned above, entries do require even more attention to the overall trend on higher time frames before executing any trades. After determining the trend on the higher time frames, the trader looks for a fresh senkou span cross in the same direction as the overall trend that has been solidified by a close on the execution time frame. Once they identify a suitable opportunity, they initiate a position in the direction of the senkou span sentiment. As in all Ichimoku trading strategies, traders will be well-advised to consider the relative strength of the cross (vis-a-vis price's location relative to the kumo) as well as the sentiment provided by the remaining Ichimoku components at the time of the cross in order to ensure the most optimum entry.

It is worth mentioning here that the strong bull (buy) signal outlined in our first chart that took place in April of 2005, while technically strong from a 1D perspective, was not aligned with the overall downtrend in-place on the Weekly and Monthly charts. Thus, traders taking this trade signal and using a senkou span cross in the opposite direction as their exit signal would have actually lost pips. This underscores the importance of evaluating sentiment on multiple time frames and trading with the overall trend.


Exit

The exit from a senkou span cross trade is generally signalled by a senkou span cross in the opposite direction of the trade, though other exit signals may be taken depending upon the trader's risk tolerance and profit goals.


Stop-Loss Placement

Being a "big picture" trend trading strategy like the kumo breakout strategy, the stop-loss for the senkou span cross strategy is placed on the opposite side of the kumo that the trade is transpiring on, 10 - 20 points away from the kumo boundary.

Take Profit Targets

While traditional take profit targets can be used with the senkou span cross trading strategy, it is more in-line with the long-term trend trading approach to wait for a senkou span cross to transpire in the opposite direction of the trade before closing out the position. This method allows the trade to take full advantage of the trend without closing the trade until price action dictates unequivocally that the trend is over.

 

[ag_fx]

Chikou Span Cross​

For those that have been using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo charting system for any length of time, utilizing the chikou span cross strategy should be like second nature. Why? Because the chikou span cross is essentially the "chikou span confirmation" that savvy Ichimoku traders utilize to confirm chart sentiment before entering any trade. This confirmation comes in the form of the chikou span crossing through the price curve in the direction of the proposed trade. If it crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. If it crosses from the top down, then it is considered a bearish signal.

Thus, we already know the power of the chikou span cross via its use as a confirmation strategy. However, when used within some simple guidelines, the chikou span cross can be used as its own standalone trading strategy with very good success.

Like many other Ichimoku trading strategies, the chikou span cross strategy uses price's relationship to the kumo to categorize its signals into three (3) major classifications: strong, neutral and weak.

STRONG CHIKOU SPAN CROSS SIGNAL

A strong chikou span cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross takes place and current price is above the kumo
A strong chikou span cross Sell signal takes place when a bearish cross takes place and current price is below the kumo.


NEUTRAL CHIKOU SPAN CROSS SIGNAL

A neutral chikou span cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross takes place and current price is within the kumo
A neutral chikou span cross Sell signal takes place when a bearish cross takes place and current price is within the kumo.

WEAK CHIKOU SPAN CROSS SIGNAL

A weak chikou span cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross takes place and current price is below the kumo
A weak chikou span cross Sell signal takes place when a bearish cross takes place and current price is above the kumo.

The chart in Figure IX below provides several examples of the chikou span cross. Given the fact that the chikou span is a measure of closing price shifted 26 periods into the past, we must always keep in mind both the location of the chikou span in relation to the price curve (the "cross" itself) and the current candle and its relation to the kumo. Thus, Point A1 is the point where the chikou span crossed the price curve downward and Point A2 is the closing candle that initiated that bearish cross. However, since the candle at Point A2 was above the prevailing kumo at the point of the cross, this particular signal would be categorized as a "weak" bearish cross. A strong bullish cross can be seen in Points B1 and B2 since the chikou span crossed upward through the price curve and the closing candle at that point in time was above the prevailing kumo. Points C1 and C2 represent a weak bearish cross given that they transpired above the prevailing kumo.

Entry

The entry for the chikou span cross is relatively straightforward - the trader initiates a position in the direction of the chikou span cross after taking into consideration the cross's strength and other chart signals. For the highest probability of success, the trader will also look for the chikou span itself to be free of the kumo as the chikou span can often interact with the kumo much like the price curve.


Exit

The most traditional exit for a chikou span cross trade is generally signalled by a chikou span cross in the opposite direction of the trade, though other exit signals may be taken depending upon the trader's risk tolerance and profit goals.


Stop-Loss Placement

The chikou span strategy does not dictate use of any particular Ichimoku structure for stop-loss placement, like some other strategies do. Instead, the trader should consider their execution time frame and their money management rules and then look for the appropriate prevailing structure for setting their stop-loss.


Take Profit Targets

Take profit targetting for the chikou span cross strategy can be approached in one of two different ways. It can be approached from a day/swing trader perspective where take profit targets are set using key levels, or from a position trader perspective, where the trader does not set specific targets but rather waits for the current trend to be invalidated by a chikou span cross transpiring in the opposite direction of their trade.

 

[ag_fx]

Reserved Post 1

for Entry Exit Rules for me.

 

[ag_fx]

Reserved Post 2

 

[ag_fx]

Some examples to show how it works on all Time Frames.

See the following EURUSD H1 chart. The Red arrows are two short entries and Blue arrows are exits.

15 March 2010 to 25 March 2010

 

[ag_fx]

EURJPY 4 Hour chart.

Red Arrows as shorts, Blue as covers.

10 Jan 2010 to 08 Feb 2010

 

[desifxtrader]

No doubt this is Good trading system. :thumb:

But personally speaking, I wouldn't try this ... feels dizzy with soo many colorful & whirling lines.

Anyways, keep up the good work Ankit.

 

[AW10]

Hi Ankit, this thread has started my interest in Ichimoku once again. I knew the basics of it but never gone to the level where it I can trade it. I think my biggest fear has been the overload of a Japanese language words. Whenever I came across them, it hit me again and again.
(I have nothing against the Japanese language, but unfamiliar words make it a difficult read)
So I am downloading the DOC version of this thread and going to replace all Japanese names with more familiar words.. and re-read it.

First 2 posts have already given me many ideas to atleast go back and backtest some of the stuff for my instrument - NIFTY.

Personally, I have respect for age old trading wisdom that has originated from Japan (candlestick is live example of that) so will certainly give it a try.
Will come back to this thread later after digesting my version of this.

Keep posting more on this. Happy Trading

 

[rappu001]

website dedicated exclusively for ichimoku:

kumotrder dotcom/ichimoku_wiki