Learn How To Fish

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augubhai

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I have been watching pivot based threads for years now. I still watch and like the trades posted by others - the ones that give consistent explanation of their trades. I am also a fan of the nifty nirvana method.

I had tried trading these methods myself, but was not satisfied with the results. But then, while I was trading these methods, I was an incorrigible system hopper. If these methods are working for many, but not for me, then obviously the issue is that I may not have done it right, or maybe because I am not compatible with the system.

For the last few years, I have moved back to what was my first day trading method - mechanical trading of ORB and similar methods. Off course, I keep tweaking my methods every now and then, but not really system hopping nowadays.
 

VJAY

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I have been watching pivot based threads for years now. I still watch and like the trades posted by others - the ones that give consistent explanation of their trades. I am also a fan of the nifty nirvana method.

I had tried trading these methods myself, but was not satisfied with the results. But then, while I was trading these methods, I was an incorrigible system hopper. If these methods are working for many, but not for me, then obviously the issue is that I may not have done it right, or maybe because I am not compatible with the system.

For the last few years, I have moved back to what was my first day trading method - mechanical trading of ORB and similar methods. Off course, I keep tweaking my methods every now and then, but not really system hopping nowadays.
Thanks for coming in augubhai...:)
Yes for trading this method need patience to first trade in live match with what the model trades give...as these method is clearly mechanical in entries and basic stop movements...once trades match with model only you can move on trademanagement ,some modified rules to where /when avoid some system given trades etc......its take some times which gives you/any the confidence which needed...so initially most of traders hit some loss or BE ...which they start to think method not works and not suits them they never look the things where they failed....these things not only this method its for any method.....
 

VJAY

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Thanks Vijay,, yes I have to learn that.

Some times when I exited early before isl, price moved in opposite direction after my exit. So not much confident on when to exit.

Can you let me know where you will exit in that attached chart?

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Dear Raju,
as i have my own scratching rules which dif with scenerios so its not helps you....better you make some of your own rules using your experience with this method....about bold part its happens for everyone/every method...thing is which what we use for TSL move ment is tested one with market strucutre and we just stick with it as mechanical....if this happens we have to just take it as normal :)

1560853065355.png
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
Post by ncube.....

Don't use Strike rate to measure your system..instead use average Risk:Reward ratio to measure system performance. Even a system with strike rate of 30-40% can be acceptable if your Risk to reward ratio is favorable. Average Risk to reward ratio will tell you if your system has an edge...if it's not positive no point using it. Always take risk first approach, if you know how much you are going to lose on a given trade before you place the trade and you are comfortable with that risk you will have better success in holding the trade to play out else every small normal retracement will stress you out. One has to fully accept that trading is just a probability game and each trade is a bet we take for the edge to play out in our favour over a number of trades. Hence it is not possible to plan in advance how much we are going to make in a given month.
 

VJAY

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ST da.....
You cannot catch each up and down move in a sideways market with any trend following system.....if it was possible we would be making 150 nifty points every day...just add all upmoves and downmoves in a sideways days and see how much nifty moves....it is like smoke..you can see it , but you cannot catch it unless you are trading each rally and decline which will be impossible to trade...

No one knows which will be a trending day before the day starts but as the day progresses, it becomes clear...most of the trend days will give you 40 points even if you take a trade in the afternoon after observing trend strength....
it is a valuable skill which trader acquires after years of screen experience...dont throw it away in the name of mechanical trading...answers to these questions a trader has to find himself. When I was trading it I never needed any formula to know that the market is trending strongly today....

HOW TO IDENTIFY A TRENDING DAY

I had posted silmilar post in miniflow thread some months back,tried to locate it but it seems to have got burried...

Nobody can identify a strong trending day before the day starts...but as the day's market action progresses, it can be identified with fair accuracy. Some of the tell-a-tale signs of strong up trending day are as under : Mirror image for down trending day.

1) Strong up day starts near the bottom of the day's range and closes near the top of the range both within bottom/top 20%. This means that the market does not retrace much after opening and quickly gets down to its business.

2) Strong up days are made of 1-2 Wide Range Bars ( WRBs)with large volumes.

3) In up trending day the rallies will be have more volumes than declining bars.

4) In uptrending day, there are no frequent reversals.

5) Market overall is strong and broadbased meaning there is strong move in many stocks/indices.

6) In uptrend day market does not retrace much....retracements are small and market gains the retraced ground fast.It is my thumb rule that if the market in-between retraces more than 25 points in Nifty Futures from its intraday top,chances of strong up day are remote.

7) In strong up day market gallops after 2:00 -2:30....and rises very fast from 2:45 to 3:10....and may retrace some ground gained afterwards.

We daytraders must have some large trend days on our side ,where holding till end and adding on every dip is all we need to do , to keep us on winning side.

Best wishes,

Smart_trade
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
ST da......

If one is trading index futures how many points on average a trader makes in a month considering stoplosses, sudden moves,brokerage and charges ? I guess it is 150-250 points in nifty fut and 400-500 points in Bank nifty ......so one idea is trade only clear trending days whether upwards or downwards....we get 6-7 such trading days every month where the movements are strong one directional...so just trade those and make 35-40 points in nifty which means less trades, more trending trades,less stops,more holding till the end,more points per trade and less whipsaws and less frustrations....just a thought for traders to work on..

I used to trade in this fashion few years back and I used to call such days as "Popcorn days " why pocorn ? because the market is strong and one can hear it make cracking sound we hear in malls at the popcorn machines when the corn breaks due to heat.....such days are strong, fast, less whipsaws and the trend accelerated in the afternoon ..so just trade those days....
 

VJAY

Well-Known Member
Discretionary VS Systamatic ......by Xray

The drawback of a discretionary system is that many traders are prone to second-guessing themselves. They may actually be very poor at deciding when to trade and when not to, and therefore a more systematic approach would be better. Discretionary systems are susceptible to the psychology of the trader ,you will end in trading with low qty.

The systematic approach needs back test ,to arrive to risk capital for the system and also the qty were we can increase qty, 90 % don't do it ,need to unlearn many things to adopt to that . No one will share there exact system .when it got decent R R..,only you will find is the path where you can construct your own.DD is the main issue,but it will not fizzle you once your back test is systematic.
 
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