L&T is dead, long live L&T

protrade

Well-Known Member
#1
In last month, L&T has fallen 13% as fears of a government Capex crunch hit the stock.

However, market may be missing some key points.
- L&T has an Orderbook that isolates them from current crunch for 2 years. Even if they don’t get a single new order, they have enough work to do for 2 years.
- Typically, infrastructure is the quickest and easiest play to stimulate the economy. And India’s hunger for Infrastructure is insatiable.
- L&T is likely to be amongst the biggest beneficiaries of any loan reorganization that is ordered by the Supreme Court.
- At it’s current valuations, L&T is extremely attractive, with a good dividend yield.
- The closing of the deal with Schneider will boost other income significantly - and even if it is one time gains, it will help in lowering debt in balance sheet.
- L&T has become the largest and in fact only private sector defense supplier after ADAG’s meltdown.

All things considered, current down trend in L&T could prove to be a great buying opportunity. Even if there is a market correction, L&T will likely be good play for future.
 

protrade

Well-Known Member
#3
The Conundrum post was made on 05/12/19. From its recent peak of 1473 on 31/10/19, stock fell to 1300 when I made that post. And my post was close enough to bottom of 1279 (within 1.5% of the bottom). And it went up to 1375 in about a month time. From most stand points, that is a reasonable call. I hope you aren’t quibbling because I didn’t pick the bottom exactly?

The second Defense post was on 19/02/20. 20th Feb onwards global markets fell, reaching a low about a month later. This was bad timing, but I don’t think this was anything I could do anything about.
 
#4

protrade

Well-Known Member
#5
Even current post, I have made around 857, when stock has fallen from its recent high of 1020.

I believe we are close to the bottom of this fall - but it may not be exact bottom.
 

protrade

Well-Known Member
#6
Was thinking the same, Even with Reliance, suggestion/prediction was not to buy, but it went up. True that no can always be right,still..!!
Mukesh Ambani is happy selling stake in Jio for $65B. And Reliance owns 67% of Jio now, worth $44B.

He is happy selling stake in Retail for $57B.

He was trying to sell 20% in Oil/Chemical business at $75B before oil prices crashed in 2020. Global oil companies have crashed over 50% since then. Let’s assume oil business is at $50B.

All three businesses put together, total about $175B

Why would Reliance be worth $25B more? Or we know better than Mukesh Ambani about Reliance? Or is he a fool to sell out cheap?
 

Verde

Well-Known Member
#7
periodically you post thread about L&T. and everytime you recommend it falls further. Is there any particular reason?

https://www.traderji.com/community/threads/l-t-conundrum.108649/

https://www.traderji.com/community/threads/l-t’s-defense-foray.108877/
He needs bakras to buy :DD
lot of people are doing it here, they will come and post as the stock hits a resistance ---- stock xyz up 500000000% :p
When you see the word pro, champion etc in the id, it's time to start running
 

protrade

Well-Known Member
#8
He needs bakras to buy :DD
lot of people are doing it here, they will come and post as the stock hits a resistance ---- stock xyz up 500000000% :p
When you see the word pro, champion etc in the id, it's time to start running
Really?
You think I am trying to pump up large cap names like L&T and Reliance?

Almost every post of mine is made when I invest into the stock, it is a sort of rationale for my own investment. I put it out there, in the hope that there will be others who will comment on my post, and I can either validate my rationale or have it invalidated.

And my style of investing is mostly contrarian, rather than momentum. I try to be greedy when others are afraid and afraid when others are greedy. It works sometimes, and sometimes it doesn’t work.
 

newtrader101

Well-Known Member
#10
Mukesh Ambani is happy selling stake in Jio for $65B. And Reliance owns 67% of Jio now, worth $44B.

He is happy selling stake in Retail for $57B.

He was trying to sell 20% in Oil/Chemical business at $75B before oil prices crashed in 2020. Global oil companies have crashed over 50% since then. Let’s assume oil business is at $50B.

All three businesses put together, total about $175B

Why would Reliance be worth $25B more? Or we know better than Mukesh Ambani about Reliance? Or is he a fool to sell out cheap?
As an aside, I've wondered why there's so much discrepancy between the brothers. Both got equal opportunities, right? Honestly, I'm not making light of somebody's misfortune. Could this be an explanation for traders' performance, too?
 

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