Journey of an Intraday NIFTY Trader with 5 Lakh Initial Capital - REAL TRADES

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
I initially thought of accepting what you posted as it is without further engaging into discussion, but then I thought many members of this forum will get misled by doing so, hence my reply. Might be a long one though.

I just want to point out on one thing first and which is pretty obvious nowadays and that’s many trading experts sharing their mechanical system publicly in a workshop for a fee. And thanks to the social media, many workshop attendees write positive about the outcomes.

Now based on above what can be seen is that soon we will have many rule based mechanical traders, compounding their capital in no time right? Only step number 3 will hold a trader back from making money as the other steps are pretty easy and simple, isn’t it? So now anyone can quit job get couple of lakhs capital and make it 5x in a year. Am I missing anything here?

Second obvious point is, there are many computer geeks, maths geeks, stat geeks etc who can be hired by the big financial firms to build a mechanical system. Now it would be naive to think that it’s very difficult for the subject matter experts to find a system with an edge but a training and workshop guy finds it and sells it too! What’s the catch then? I am sure I don’t have to spell it out.

The only mechanical system that will work is when market stays the same - not just similar. The good part is that the market mostly will stay similar in years down the line. But it’s the discretionary traders experience which will give him an edge to use the specific rules under different market conditions.

If you notice I mentioned rules, but that’s not a mechanical system. I have switched to my original trading strategies from December 4th. And few posts back someone had asked if all the trades taken are of same system, to which I replied yes, just to keep things simple as I never intended to talk about trading system or anything as such. A bit elaborate answer is - different rules for different market conditions and trades based on those rules.

When I started as a full time trader in 2009 I was under the impression of some mechanical system will make me a fortune and that’s all I need, and had similar 7 points approach like you posted. When I shared my thoughts with a trader who was struggling to move beyond 3000 nifty futures (lot size was 50), he just said “it seems so easy for you, wish I can have similar thought process like you” . Of course he was just being kind to me ( I was then trading 200 nifty futures ) as I could have never imagined then what it takes to trade bigger size.

In the same year later I met a person through a good friend of mine, businessman and happened to be nifty trader! I was enthused to know he was a trader and I asked what timeframe he uses and does he do intraday. He did not share the same enthusiasm like mine and before answering anything he just asked “how many nifty do you trade?” I said 200. My answer caught his attention, and just maybe to be double sure he asked “lots?” I said no, 200 nifty futures quantity. He immediately ignored any further conversations related to markets and talked normal stuffs with my friend. While leaving I asked him how many he trades, he said 5000. I asked “lots” ? He laughed and said “I am not a big trader”

What I am trying to say is that, strategy is a very small part in compounding.

Market is ever changing and will keep changing, gain experience, learn from trades, build a mindset.

Now I am giving rest to my thumb


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thanks for the reply, you have not answered single point of my query...you gone to social media,workshops,your experience,lots..anyways..best of luck o_O.no more discussion
 
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deepsat

Active Member
Well this is the beauty of a forum where one can be anonymous and still post his or her views, and I really appreciate this anonymity for various reasons. One of them being members can share openly what s/he thinks which most of the time has helped me to broaden my horizon of thoughts, so I thank again to everyone to take a keen interest in this thread and sharing your thoughts.
As mentioned none of the months are in profit until now, I have to agree to that. These are the PNL month wise
Oct 2019 -72324
Nov 2019 -60622
Dec 2019 -19017
January 2020 +6214
But I have to share something, I have abandoned the trading system on 4th December 2019, and the trades taken thereafter (5th December there was no trade as per the system, so 1st trade was on 6th December) are based mostly on my primary strategy. Now doing so there have been issues too that I have faced in punching orders in multiple accounts and thus missing few of the trades, as this account takes the last priority in punching orders. Like in last few days including today, this account missed few profitable trades. The net profit from 5th Dec until today is Rs 14716/- (which is 4%, though just looking at % return is irrelevant, and is a way for many trainers and coaches to boast with this figure) which excludes the missed trades. When I started out as a trader I never intended to become a trainer or coach or anything as such, and the same principle stands even today. But as a trader I want to move on to the next level and thus I started this thread.
So this post of yours come at a right time, when I myself was considering to halt this project as I am doing injustice to this account in particular. The trades that work are pretty quick and I am finding it difficult to place orders in multiple accounts. So this account will always underperform.
Also I see many are fixated to the % return and drawdowns of the account which looks pretty big in this case to many, and might look tiny to the experienced ones.
You also asked if it is psychologically challenging to be in drawdowns. I have to add to this that there are other factors that add up to the psychological issues too, but I have learnt over the years that the issues will always be there and more we grow it’s going to be even bigger, so it’s better to accept it and try to handle it. One of my trend trading system, has a stat of just 33% hit rate from September 2019 till today, imagine the drawdown in it, but then the execution of it is pretty simple so I mostly do not miss a trade in that. I did miss out on exiting the shorts just at the trail SL on the Nirmala Sitharaman candle day, as I was travelling and was managing positions from my mobile device, so I had to exit a bit late, which looked very early by the end of the day though. And I missed out on the longs too on that day, it was bit challenging on my mind on that day, but just reminded myself next day that the only way out here on is to stick to the system consistently. I think that is the key to take care of the psychological challenges.

Thank you for following this thread closely and giving your valuable inputs :)
It is sad that you have abandoned the discretionary system on December 4th. When you abruptly stopped posting your trades, i understood that you dont want to keep continuing with the trade P/L you were sharing. You could have atleast told us so when you stopped updating as you were updating every day.

Few more observations, if i may.

1. When another user asked about 'no trade' days, you said no trades based on your system. Based on that answer and numerous other posts where you said you are following system diligently , i was assuming that you were trading a mechanical system(all this while). My wrong assumption. Sorry for that Sir.

2. Missing out trades is a big issue for any trader but that cannot be an excuse for our poor performance. It is like a vegetable vendor saying that he he missed the bus to the market and hence, no business today. That vegetable vendor is bound to fail in his business. It is just a matter of time. I had missed few trades in the past and somehow, market punishes me nicely when i lose focus. it is very hurting.

3. Failing in an experiment is fine as long as we learn something from it. But that does not mean that others will fail in the same kind of experiment. Madan (he is also a member of traderji) has taken 3 lacs to 17 lacs recently trading Nifty intraday and he is updating his tradebook everyday. So, you are not the only one doing it as you mentioned somewhere and he started much before you. So , there are people who are showing their record dayin/dayout. Few people can do compound successfully and many cannot. That's alright. But, painting eveyone with the same brush is not appropriate in my opinion.

I had to mention this point in the post as your recent reply to xray bhai somehow relates to Madan's performance very closely. Now, you may say that you said it generally but the similarities were too much to say it is a coincidence. Just because we cannot do it, it is unfair to say others will also fail and will not do it. That is a bit immature, IMO.

I am very confident that you will keep sharing your experiences (if not the trade P/L) and market is the best teacher. Thanks for this wonderful thread and hope you take this post in the right spirit.
 
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deepsat

Active Member
Thanks for the reply, you have not answered single point of my query...you gone to social media,workshops,your experience,lots..anyways..best of luck o_O.no more discussion
Xray bhai,

It is unfortunate that he could not do compounding like the way he thought. It is fine and 100s of experiments fail every single day. But, how we handle the questions reveals the temperament of the person.

Hope he finds success in his future experiments without casting aspersions on fellow traders :)
 

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
Xray bhai,

It is unfortunate that he could not do compounding like the way he thought. It is fine and 100s of experiments fail every single day. But, how we handle the questions reveals the temperament of the person.

Hope he finds success in his future experiments without casting aspersions on fellow traders :)
Deesat bhai !!

Before compounding, there are main vital stats we need, i just pointed that in my previous post,Luck factor is also quantitative, it is objective not subjective, which i have discussed that in my TA thread,does we fail after getting that matrix ?? ,answer is NO,in general people neglect back test or they don't know many concepts in right way..i suggested few books also(in my thread)..as a matter of fact my account size also grown with compounding..(i'm a MP trader) Madan is structural pivot trader..anyways i won't touch more ,hasty answers, ego clashes will be net result , i wish thread starter and followers best of luck,this is my last post in this dairy/thread
 

milkyblack

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the reply, you have not answered single point of my query...you gone to social media,workshops,your experience,lots..anyways..best of luck o_O.no more discussion
Pls find the replies to your original msg (replies in bold). I hope I have not missed anything this time.

Yes I did share my experiences, what else is a forum all about? But what questions are you talking about? You have made either statements or put your opinions to which I shared very few of my personal experiences, which I found relevant to shed some light to build wealth and which can only be done by trading bigger qty and the challenges one face when the qty increases.



Few points in trading (If I am able to comprehend rightly these are the steps using which one can compound capital, and I shared my points that how these steps are not enough, instead of blindly accepting them)

1. DD( in points terms) which is main base for capital calculation

2. Draw down months in back test

3. Luck factor calculation

4. Outliers in profit and loss (in points terms)

5. Montecarlo simulation or stress test

6. if all the 5 steps are covered then comes the compounding part

Last......, MM school for F&O is different from normal stock trading

Please post stats of backtest of above system if possible for learning purpose – Question I suppose and answer to that- System traded from Oct 10th till Dec 4th was discretionary based forward testing system, which was losing money so stopped. I do not keep record of losing systems.

Dec 5th until the last trade, all trades based on my trading strategies (I still can’t call it mechanical system). Stats for last 43 trades posted in TJ excel, which can be verified, and if any error please let me know as I have done this quick calculation.

Winners 44%

RR 1.70

Net points +70 (NOT CONSIDERING MISSED PROFITABLE TRADES)

Now, this has missed few good trades as I have pointed I did not punch trades in this account as the trades moved in my direction, not for any other issues other than I could not manage to punch the trades as I trade in multiple accounts. All the loss trades were passed into the system, as those can be punched.

Psychological issue will not come after you go through above process...people stop at expectancy ratio, which is only middle part of a system – Statement and my entire post was directed to share some light that the above steps will still lead to psychological issues.

My reply is on bases of rule based system, if discretionary please ignore above steps..., as well defined compounding is a myth with discretionary methods (IMO) – Strongly biased opinion and I tried to give some examples which I have encountered in my trading career until now, unfortunately I could not perhaps put in a proper way that could add value.
 
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milkyblack

Well-Known Member
I have tried to reply to your observations, find the replies in bold

It is sad that you have abandoned the discretionary system on December 4th. When you abruptly stopped posting your trades, i understood that you dont want to keep continuing with the trade P/L you were sharing. You could have atleast told us so when you stopped updating as you were updating every day.

Why is it sad to abandon a method when it was losing money? What do you mean abruptly stopped posting trades? From Oct 11th, 2019 to 05th Feb 2020, until you posted your observations I kept on posting trades every day. Very unfortunate you could not observe this.



Few more observations, if i may.

1. When another user asked about 'no trade' days, you said no trades based on your system. Based on that answer and numerous other posts where you said you are following system diligently , i was assuming that you were trading a mechanical system(all this while). My wrong assumption. Sorry for that Sir.

Yes your wrong assumption, I never mentioned I am a mechanical trader. And discretionary trader does not mean the trader does not trade any method or so.


2. Missing out trades is a big issue for any trader but that cannot be an excuse for our poor performance. It is like a vegetable vendor saying that he he missed the bus to the market and hence, no business today. That vegetable vendor is bound to fail in his business. It is just a matter of time. I had missed few trades in the past and somehow, market punishes me nicely when i lose focus. it is very hurting.

Again you failed to understand I DO NOT MISS TRADES. I COULD NOT PUNCH TRADES IN THIS ACCOUNT COUPLE OF TIMES as this account takes the last priority in punching trades (repeating it again what I meant). In your vegetable vendor parlance when the vegetable vendor diversifies his business and has multiple bus to catch and multiple markets to visit and multiple products to sell, it comes at a cost of optimization. ALSO if missing just few trades makes the trading system negative, it ought to fail sooner than later.

Just when I posted the stats above I realised even after missing few trades since Dec 05th , the net result is positive (I was under the impression that it is not, thanks to XRAY who made me do the math, see how constructive criticism helps when taken in the right sprit)

3. Failing in an experiment is fine as long as we learn something from it. But that does not mean that others will fail in the same kind of experiment.

Just because we cannot do it, it is unfair to say others will also fail and will not do it. That is a bit immature, IMO.

I never said neither can I nor can’t anyone compound capital. In this forum many old members are earning lots but are just silent observer of this forum. You are free to assume anything you want based on your own world view. And just in the previous post XRAY mentioned he himself has compounded his capital and is trading with a big size, so we have live examples who are doing it, and I am sure there are many like him in this forum. I humbly request XRAY to share his trades and compounding path (if he wishes to do so) so that we all can learn from his vast experience and members of this forum can walk the path.

I am very confident that you will keep sharing your experiences (if not the trade P/L) and market is the best teacher. Thanks for this wonderful thread and hope you take this post in the right spirit.

Thanks to you, and I see no reason not to share my experiences in this forum and learn from other’s experiences too.

As it’s said when one teaches two learns.
Lastly, a visual representation of this account’s monthly net pnl stats. I am sure the trend is pretty clear.
equity.png
equity2.png
 

milkyblack

Well-Known Member
Deesat bhai !!

Before compounding, there are main vital stats we need, i just pointed that in my previous post,Luck factor is also quantitative, it is objective not subjective, which i have discussed that in my TA thread,does we fail after getting that matrix ?? ,answer is NO,in general people neglect back test or they don't know many concepts in right way..i suggested few books also(in my thread)..as a matter of fact my account size also grown with compounding..(i'm a MP trader) Madan is structural pivot trader..anyways i won't touch more ,hasty answers, ego clashes will be net result , i wish thread starter and followers best of luck,this is my last post in this dairy/thread
There is no clash of any sentiments whatsoever. I do not agree with you on couple of things in a particular post does not mean I do not admire you or do not look to learn from your other threads/experiences.

Love & Peace
 

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