Intraday profit system

[Debarghya Mukherjee]

dude i din understand wat u meant by
"39 SMA should be flat of incrementing. Incremental 39 SMA is better than other flat."
i use 8-13 crossover myself

Sorry my bad. I mean to say Make sure that 39 is increasing or flat. Incrementing 39 SMA is better than other flat one. I hope this clear your answer. Thank you for your attention.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Debarghya, I'll post a chart, but if I am reading you right, you want to use your system as a crossover
I'm not fond of them, and let me share my opinion sprinkled with some facts.
The fact is price action moves the indicator, so the price has already moved before the indicator has had a chance to tell you to make the move. Let's say you jump in after the indicator tells you to, then price action moves the other way. Shortly thereafter, the indicator will move too.
A moving average is simply that. 39 MA is an average of the last 39 candles. Therefore, the MA is a median, and as price moves on the other side, you are already have way through the cycle relative to the 39 candles. Also, there will always be a gravitational pull to the median. This can be witnessed on any indicator that measures such, which includes Bollinger Bands, all MA's, ichimoku, all the oscillators, all SD channels, etc.

If I am missing something as far as your intended usage is concerned, then please let me know, or tell me to be quiet (LOL, I can also walk away and know we will still be friends.). I hardly no of anyone that has used a crossover type of system and has consistently profited from it.

Sorry my bad. I mean to say Make sure that 39 is increasing or flat. Incrementing 39 SMA is better than other flat one. I hope this clear your answer. Thank you for your attention.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Let me point out some possible fallacies. Let these just be warning signs as you test your methodology, and to test it on live price action as opposed to testing it with your live money.

It's quite obvious by this chart that Nifty has been in an uptrend for a long time, according to the 5-min. Let me say this is being tested under ideal conditions. The higher TF's were already indicating a correction of the longer term DOWN.

If I am understanding you right, you are seeking an entry once the 39 has leveled or curled up. That being the criteria, entry would have been circa 4853 near the dip to the left of the chart. If you are using the stochastics as a confluence, then it was already OB. My question would be what would you have done at this point.
Also, live price action in testing a methodology is a lot different than backtesting.

Let's say you got in at the dip, based on the 39 MA and stayed in, the stochastics notwithstanding. Then, it is evident the 39 MA will keep you in. So far, so good. Current price--5012. Up by 157 points.
Let me let you in on a sneaky little secret. Remember I told you there is always a gravitational pull back to the median with all price action (That includes all TF's, and any kind of a median indicator.) Currently the MA is at 4975. When price breaks on the other side of it (Cut-n-paste this somewhere, so you don't forget.), the MA will still be pointing up. This is because, once again, MA's measure the average of, in this case, 39 candles. When price finds its way back to the MA, it finally made it back to the average of all those candles. The recent trend was up, so the MA is still up.

Let me also emphasize, that this is an ideal situation. These are the situations that ones that sell e-books post this sort of stuff on, and show the readers on paper why the system will make you so much money. Then the reader tests hit, and they are so disappointed.

 

[Debarghya Mukherjee]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Let me point out some possible fallacies. Let these just be warning signs as you test your methodology, and to test it on live price action as opposed to testing it with your live money.

It's quite obvious by this chart that Nifty has been in an uptrend for a long time, according to the 5-min. Let me say this is being tested under ideal conditions. The higher TF's were already indicating a correction of the longer term DOWN.

If I am understanding you right, you are seeking an entry once the 39 has leveled or curled up. That being the criteria, entry would have been circa 4853 near the dip to the left of the chart. If you are using the stochastics as a confluence, then it was already OB. My question would be what would you have done at this point.
Also, live price action in testing a methodology is a lot different than backtesting.

Let's say you got in at the dip, based on the 39 MA and stayed in, the stochastics notwithstanding. Then, it is evident the 39 MA will keep you in. So far, so good. Current price--5012. Up by 157 points.
Let me let you in on a sneaky little secret. Remember I told you there is always a gravitational pull back to the median with all price action (That includes all TF's, and any kind of a median indicator.) Currently the MA is at 4975. When price breaks on the other side of it (Cut-n-paste this somewhere, so you don't forget.), the MA will still be pointing up. This is because, once again, MA's measure the average of, in this case, 39 candles. When price finds its way back to the MA, it finally made it back to the average of all those candles. The recent trend was up, so the MA is still up.

Let me also emphasize, that this is an ideal situation. These are the situations that ones that sell e-books post this sort of stuff on, and show the readers on paper why the system will make you so much money. Then the reader tests hit, and they are so disappointed.

Thank Sir,
Goodmoring sir, now you are sleeping may be. It is morning is in India. Yesterday I was busy with my project so could not reply you. You made some very good points.
I am trying to explain it in my way,
It is true that SMA 39 is acting as median(as you called), I am calling it my base . My idea is that stay in the trade till your base is strong. That is, your base is showing you that this movement has a base to go. Once we get into the trade price may go in correction phase, then this 39 SMA can help me to understand "Should I be in Trade?". If I get you right then gravitational force works more with EMA than SMA. I have used 39 SMA. Is it good Sir?

I saw your chart, my system worked very good with the chart you gave here. But I have a little correction to your statement, according to my system I will take entry between 4781-4816. Because my EMA cross has taken place as well as 39 SMA is flat or increasing.

I am working with this system for dual time frame also. I found it helpful with idea of some well known trader of this forum. I dont remember his name now. He mentioned that dual time frame system gives us better filter. I am planning for a dual time frame confirmation to avoid whipsaw.
I think 5 min and 10 time frame work best for my system. I have tested it. I saw that it works. At least it removes whipsaw. I am asking you advice also.

Happy Trading
---------------------------

 

[Debarghya Mukherjee]

Hello Sir I am posting some random charts of recent dates. I have used ADX(14) instead of stochastic here. I think that result is self explanatory for experts like you. Sir if you get time then try to test the system with ADX(14)

 

[dipakvkotak]

Please post this formula here

 

[dipakvkotak]

Please post this formula here

past formula here or send me [email protected] please

 

[4xpipcounter]

Thank Sir,
Goodmoring sir, now you are sleeping may be. It is morning is in India.
Yes, good morning! I'm fresh up from a wonderful night's sleep.

Yesterday I was busy with my project so could not reply you. You made some very good points.
I am trying to explain it in my way,
It is true that SMA 39 is acting as median(as you called), I am calling it my base .
It is really a mean--"mean" being average. I often refer to it being a median, because it is in the middle of all the action.

My idea is that stay in the trade till your base is strong. That is, your base is showing you that this movement has a base to go. Once we get into the trade price may go in correction phase, then this 39 SMA can help me to understand "Should I be in Trade?". If I get you right then gravitational force works more with EMA than SMA. I have used 39 SMA. Is it good Sir?
Whether it is a simple or an exponential, it is all the same, as far as gravitationally pulling back to the median, and eventually flowing on the other side.

I saw your chart, my system worked very good with the chart you gave here. But I have a little correction to your statement, according to my system I will take entry between 4781-4816. Because my EMA cross has taken place as well as 39 SMA is flat or increasing.
As I mentioned before, conditions were ideal. These conditions are going to show a base being formed, and the MA's following price action

I am working with this system for dual time frame also. I found it helpful with idea of some well known trader of this forum. I dont remember his name now. He mentioned that dual time frame system gives us better filter. I am planning for a dual time frame confirmation to avoid whipsaw.
I think 5 min and 10 time frame work best for my system. I have tested it. I saw that it works. At least it removes whipsaw. I am asking you advice also.
I do like the idea of your flexibility with the different TF's. Whipsaws will not be avoided, but it does give a better panorama of the overall market view.
Let me suggest this. (BTW, I hope it does not come off like I am knocking your system, but rather offering constructive and an honest input.) I think all systems should be demo traded before someone goes live with it. I would also post trades (Whether it be here or in the privacy of your home.) as to when you got in and got out of the trades as seen through the eyes of your newly adopted methodology. This way you can confirm one way or the other if it is working. If it goes awry on you, then you can also post questions and comments here, and someone will be glad to help.
I know personally, and this may seem to be an irony, but I enjoy talking about others methodologies. Trading decisions are based continuously through the eyes of my own , so it is a bit of psychological sunshine to view the trading world through the eyes of someone else's methodology.

Happy Trading
---------------------------

I am stressing to post live your simulated trading. I read you other post. Backtesting looks great on paper, but is is a complete different thing to do it live. You will find it will add validity and confidence to what you are doing by posting live. After all you hammer out 20 good trades in a row, and all the talking points go out the window.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I got the same question to you as Sharetrader. Why would you post your private id when this is an open forum? The op posted to an open forum for opinions on his method of trading. What ulterior motive do you have?
.

past formula here or send me [email protected] please

 

[Debarghya Mukherjee]

I understand your point Sir. Then What will be your suggestion for this system.

1) You said right that "MA is a lagging indicator". But Once a market analysis said to me that you can not catch the bottom and can not sell at top. . We do trade between these two. But I personally think that EMA is faster than SMA and may gives me faster indication of trade. Am I right? I know that EMA gives more whipsaw also. But median ( I am using your term ) can keep me in trade and can guide me for the trend.

2) Dual time frame system is really great but I am still not expert in it. As I told you, I am learning trading by myself from helps of seniors in TraderJi and other websites. But I saw that 5 min and 10 min time frame gives us better filtering. Any time frame you suggest me sir? Then I will try that.

3) Now I want to know two things from you

i) What indicator gives us signal before price moves. Many said that MACD can gives us. But I dont believe it. MACD is also reflection of past price movement.
ii) How TIPS makers "Predict call of the day?" . I know two systems PIVOT and GANN table. They use this to predict particular script movement for the day?

Thank you
Debarghya