Intraday/Positional trades (Using 3-15 system on 15mins chart)

[KRISHXNG]

Intraday/Positional trades (Using 3-15 system on 15mins/1H chart)

Tried following the 3-15 system on the daily chart and have been unsuccessful over the last couple of months. Its a great system in a trending market, but there were too many whipsaws in a flat market (the last two months). So I am gonna try using the system on the 15mins chart (for Intraday). Will try to use the SH swing system on the 30mins chart on the 15min chart. I will not be able to monitor the market continuously (maybe once every 15-20 mins), so will need to see how successful I can trade on a 15mins chart. Like most traders, have never been disciplined about trading. I am hoping starting a diary here will enable me to follow the following rules and be more disciplined.
PS - Will also trade 3-15 Daily chart for positional trades. (Only 1-2 lots for carryover)

1. Will Buy or Sell NIFTY lots in multiples of 4 (Starting with 4).
2. Will book profit on 50% (Initially 2) of lots after 20 points. Have made mistake of not booking profits and positions have turned unfavorable thereafter.
3. Will book 25% (Initially 1) of lots after 40 points.
4. Will hold the final 25% (Initially 1) of lots. It will be carried over to next trading day. There will always be one lot carried over to next day, with exceptions being weekends or big events (like RBI meet, Euro meet etc).
5. There will be no stop loss. Will follow SAR. Once the 3-15 crossover happens will reverse positions.
6. Since 25% (Initially 1) of the lots is carried over, will add 75% (Initially 3) of lots or reverse the position based on next trading day open.
7. In case by EOD (3PM) the 20/40 points are not reached, will square off 75%/25% of the lots between 3:15-3:30 at some random, hopefully profitable, price.
8. If SAR happens after 3PM, then while reversing positions, will take new position only on 25% (Initially 1 lot) of the lots.
9. Will be following charts and not go by gut feeling or other whims (Would be crorepati by now if my gut feeling worked).

Will be trading on Zerodha and ICICI (Have some shares and can use those for margin on ICICI). Will definitely be using Zerodha as brokerage is low. Will try to use ICICI also from time to time (Brokerage is about Rs100-110 per lot inclusive of all taxes and charges). Will also occasionally buy/sell options (Will Sell options on ICICI, only when I am sure I can let it expire, selling closer to expiry). Will mark the options buy value as loss on the date of purchase and profit on the date of sale of options.
Will post all my trades here by EOD or next day morning with P/L after brokerage. Will also track P/L series wise and reassess the strategy every 3 months.

24-Nov-2012 : Well the brokerage seems like a big killer when trading in futures. Gonna use options (ITM or just OTM) for Intraday and Futures for positional. The rules are still the same, will try to book profits after 5 points (50%) and 10 points (25%) and let the final 25% roll. Still got to figure out a Stop Loss to ensure that the final 25% of positions don't eat up the profit gained through the initial 75% (if they are profitable). Will try to keep a stop loss of 3-5 points, once a position is open.

23-Nov-2012 : Signed up for a demo account with xtb which gives NIFTY future data with MT4. The values are off by 2 points (-2 for buy and +2 for sell), so the averages must also be off by similar amount and so the crossovers must be roughly off by 2-4 points. I think the demo is for 30 days. If the first 30 days are profitable might see if I can subscribe to someone providing live NIFTY futures data.

 

[KRISHXNG]

Series wise P/L:

 

[KRISHXNG]

Trades for 23-Nov-2012 :

Zerodha Trades -
Qty Buy Sell P/L
50 5634.00 5628.50 -275.00
50 5634.00 5628.50 -275.00
100 5608.50 5628.50 +2000.00
50 5640.00 5628.50 -575.00
50 5640.00 5628.50 -575.00
100 5640.00 5628.50 -1150.00

P/L : -850.00
Brokerage : 861.61
Net P/L : -1711.61

Carryover Position
Sold [email protected]

ICICI Trades -

Carryover Position
Sold 5700C [email protected]
Sold [email protected]

P/L : 2982.5
Brokerage : 1309.71
Net P/L : 1672.79

P/L for the Day - -38.82
P/L for the Series - -38.82

Notes - The initial trade of buy 5640 was squared off at wrong price. Had been out and market suddenly slid and by the time I was back the cross over had already happened. Panicked and Squared Off at 3PM. Should try and avoid these. The candle after the crossover did not touch the 3EMA in the 15mins chart. There was good chance of price coming down towards end of day. These are lessons to be learnt for today.
The carryover trades is only because 3EMA is still below 15EMA in daily chart (very close, so good chance of down movement continuing or the cross over happening over the next couple of days).
The 5.7C sell was mainly because that has the highest OI among all strike price. So even if market rallies next week, with expiry on Thursday and Wednesday being holiday, there is good chance market may not go over 5700.
ICICI calculations are weird. I sold one lot of NIFTY Futures at 5630.50 and the close looks like 5630.00, however they have debited 142.5. Guess the futures close is 5633.35.

 

[Taiki]

Welcome Buddy. My Best wishes are with you :thumb:

 

[saivenkat]

IMO, you could go to still higher frame, customizing to 45 min or so.. so that you could reduce the whipsaws..

15 minutes is too small for taking positional calls..

 

[akhill]

IMO, you could go to still higher frame, customizing to 45 min or so.. so that you could reduce the whipsaws..

15 minutes is too small for taking positional calls..

agree with u.

i prefer to suggest hourly charts.

 

[jatin_the_great2003]

IMO, you could go to still higher frame, customizing to 45 min or so.. so that you could reduce the whipsaws..

15 minutes is too small for taking positional calls..

I agree. TF of 1 day can be used for Positional calls which can verify the trend and then TF can be reduced to 1 hr to find any retracement in that trend.

 

[akhill]

I agree. TF of 1 day can be used for Positional calls which can verify the trend and then TF can be reduced to 1 hr to find any retracement in that trend.

looking into 1 hour and 4 hour chart will give u an idea about what is going to be the opening of next day (gap up or gap down) .. that way, u can exit and reenter ur positions in favorable times by reaping up more profits. give it a shot(in paper trading) and let us know how it works.. :thumb::thumb:

 

[jatin_the_great2003]

looking into 1 hour and 4 hour chart will give u an idea about what is going to be the opening of next day (gap up or gap down) .. that way, u can exit and reenter ur positions in favorable times by reaping up more profits. give it a shot(in paper trading) and let us know how it works.. :thumb::thumb:

Could u plz explain with a chart if possible.?

 

[akhill]

Could u plz explain with a chart if possible.?

cant get back to charts at this late time .. hehe.. we shall do it later sometime..

in precise, i use a data vendor who provides me with 30 days intraday data. (20 for some scrips i guess).

so, whenever i put up a hourly or 4 hours chart, we can observe major trend. because long positions once taken with volumes will survive atleast for 5 to 6 candles (in a 4 hour chart) and short positions once taken will survive the same amount of timeframe (may be more or less times too).

that way, in reference to 3-15 strategy, if you observe a 4 hour candle moving away from the 3 EMA, then you must understand that it is time you book profits and get back into the position when the movement favors you. (As we all know, a 4 hour chart is more smoother than an intraday chart or 30 minutes or 1 hour). so, a signal generated at the end of day will stay good for 1 or 2 candles the next day (4 to 8 hours). we can discuss on this again later tomorrow or whenever possible. u keep us updated and if there is anything i can contirbute, i will and if there is anything i can learn, i will be more happy :thumb::thumb: