India Inc's relationship with the Gold - What a turnaround ?

AW10

Well-Known Member
#1
In 1991-92 - India's forex reserve was at $2 billion level which was not enough to meet import obligation for next 3 weeks. That means the country was on the verge of defaulting on its foreign obligation.
To buy the $, then finance minister Manmohan Singh and PM Narsimha Rao to take the decision of giving up 67 tonne of gold to IMF and bring in the $s.
This devalued the Rs. against $ from 17 in 1991 to 45 in 1992.

In Nov - 2009 - When IMF is selling 403 tonnes of its Gold to raise funds to support other countries of the world, India steps in an buys 200 tonne i.e. half of the quantity put on table from our healthy forex reserve of $256 billion. This adds to the current holding of 358 tonnes of gold. With this 558 tonnes of gold, India is still ranked 10th in terms of gold reserve. Coincidently same Manmohan Singh is still involved in this decision as well.

But certainly a great investment in asset and wise decision to swap the green $ (which is turning Red on monthly chart) with glittering yellow metal.

RBI purchased this quantity in last 3 weeks at average price of $1045.. This news gave the jump to gold price yesterday by more then 2.5% and new high today as well when traders found that there are much bigger gold players (central banks) ready to buy gold at $1000. There were concern that this huge supply of gold from IMF will push the gold prices down. There were also rumour that China is ready to snap major chunk of it but India/ RBI gave the surprise here.

Maybe it is time that India Inc should get smarter and set-up India sovereign fund to buy assets all over the world. Today China controls approximately 25 to 30% of natural resources in the world. If we have to grow and lead the world economy in 21st centuries then we got to take new actions now. Accumulating Gold is certainly a nice move that I support.

Please share your views as well.


To the prosperity of our country.
 

Placebo

Well-Known Member
#2
Hi Aw10. I hope the market is treating you well. Great writeup man.

I hope this does not create a bandwagon effect and everyone jumps into the commodities market and starts purchasing. Cause if it does then distribution is just around the corner.

Btw would you happen to know what time this news was made available to the public ?

Cheers
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
#3
The news are made public 2 days back..and gold has been hitting new highs since then.
In current correction of last 2 weeks, gold is outperforming all other asset class. When mkt was down roughly 10%, it was down about 2%.. and already bounced back.

If economy has to go up, then Commodities are bound to go up. There is huge demand-supply mismatch. Certainly something worth looking at.

Why fear distibution.. cause as long as we read the chart and ready to take quick action..then just follow the trend.. Trend can last longer then what fundamentals or technicals can say.

Happy Trading
 

Placebo

Well-Known Member
#5
I don't know where you got that impression from however i do not fear distribution. On the contrary i favor it. Nevertheless the reason i asked the time was due to heavy fluctuation on the intra day charts on 3rd November. Specially from 5 in the evening.

All news feeds at least the majority of them showed the information on 3rd however the time is still not mentioned anywhere.

The reason i asked the time is because of the extreme volatility. Take a look at the following chart.

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/9494/overviewk.jpg
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
#6
Inangia, I don't know the exact time of this news.. cause I don't track gold on intraday basis.. I am more interested in positional call on this. So even 1 day late news if ok for me. But google new flashed many sites talking about it starting 3rd Nov.

Moreover this jump in Gold has come when USD is also strengthening.

But there are trading concerns as well cause Commitment of Trader report is indicating that commercials are > 80% short on Gold. Haven't checked COT recently, if there has been any shift in positions.

Happy Trading
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
#7
And now Srilanka also buys gold from IMF..
That is is one of the reason that gold continues to hit new highs.. and anticipation is that more and more Central banks are going to buy it..

Extract from latest news form Financial Times site..
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Gold renewed its record- breaking run on Wednesday, surging towards the $1,200 a troy ounce level, with bullion likely to make further gains after Sri Lanka joined other central banks in buying gold from the International Monetary Fund, analysts said.

The IMF said late on Wednesday that the Asian country had bought 10 tonnes of bullion from its reserves for $375m, confirming a trend of central bank gold buying that reverses two decades of heavy selling.

The sale was the third from the IMF to a central bank this month after India bought 200 tonnes for $6.7bn and Mauritius purchased two tonnes for $71.7m.

The IMF has still to sell 190 tonnes out of the 403.3 it has earmarked for disposal.

Traders are betting that other central banks, particularly China or Brazil, and sovereign wealth funds from the oil-rich Middle East countries could buy IMF gold. India could also buy again.

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