Impact of political instability on Thu.'s open

Reggie

Well-Known Member
#1
We have had a rip-roaring party on the stock exchange the past few sessions. The indices have zoomed. All are bears have turned bulls. (leave a few exceptions) And now there is political instability, as Mamta Banarjee has announced withrdawal of support to the UPA, brining in the prospects of a mid-term election. In effects it means, no more reforms.So what happens to our stock market.? The question is how the market will open and trade on Thursday.?

I presume an indicator of things to come will be reflected on Singapore Nifty tomorrow.

However a preview of it is already reflected on NYSE. ICICI ADR have been trading 2% lower. Infosys though is muted in reaction and is down 0.40% presently (half day of trading)

Probably, we can expect a gap down and a correction of about 1-2%, hopefully.

What are member's views?
 

Anillal

Active Member
#2
Reggie sir. Although states havebeen given the freedom to implement or reject FDI in retail but still Mamata Banarjee walked out of UPA. This goes on to show that she also has national dreams like so many regional players. So it was just a matter of time and appropriate pretext. She may be haughty but at least one thing is going for her. She is a down to earth decent and honest person compared to the thugs like Modis and Pawars and Yadavs. So good luck to her. But what amuses me most is to notice how uncanny it is that the trinamool walking out conincides with overheated market. Having hooped three huge gaps it was already out of breath. Yesbank 10 points down so is LICHSGFIN and both indices are stalled. Is it corrective process which is going to provide another chance to people who missed out entering the rally due to explosive gap ups or is it going to be UPA part retracting on its promises in turn forcing Bulls to say bye-bye Kansas? I think the answer lies on either side of 5450-5375 zone.
 

Reggie

Well-Known Member
#3
Guess some folks would be expecting this and have acted smartly. So on Thu., after gap down, we can expect huge long unwinding, further putting pressure on the market.

If there is political unstability and lack of reforms FII's may not only not bring in fresh money, but may withdraw what they have invested. So don't know what the outlook will be a week/month from now.

The govt. needs to show it can survive and carry on with market friendly policies.

One day is too long in politics. We have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Reggie sir. Although states havebeen given the freedom to implement or reject FDI in retail but still Mamata Banarjee walked out of UPA. This goes on to show that she also has national dreams like so many regional players. So it was just a matter of time and appropriate pretext. She may be haughty but at least one thing is going for her. She is a down to earth decent and honest person compared to the thugs like Modis and Pawars and Yadavs. So good luck to her. But what amuses me most is to notice how uncanny it is that the trinamool walking out conincides with overheated market. Having hooped three huge gaps it was already out of breath. Yesbank 10 points down so is LICHSGFIN and both indices are stalled. Is it corrective process which is going to provide another chance to people who missed out entering the rally due to explosive gap ups or is it going to be UPA part retracting on its promises in turn forcing Bulls to say bye-bye Kansas? I think the answer lies on either side of 5450-5375 zone.
 

Anillal

Active Member
#4
Guess some folks would be expecting this and have acted smartly. So on Thu., after gap down, we can expect huge long unwinding, further putting pressure on the market.

If there is political unstability and lack of reforms FII's may not only not bring in fresh money, but may withdraw what they have invested. So don't know what the outlook will be a week/month from now.

The govt. needs to show it can survive and carry on with market friendly policies.

One day is too long in politics. We have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Abosolutely right sir. In my post in Prada sir's thread I said this already. Gap down will bring out the jan-feb supply in a hurry and now this news may turn that flood into avalanche. SGX will be watched by billions of hawk eyes well before our market opens tomorrow I am sure. As far as FII is concerned they are generally not that foolish as the general public. They book profits as the go. Besides they pay miilions of dollars for inside news. So I would be surprised if they didn't know this political debacle in the making well before it went public. Besides on hourly chart it seems swing high has already been formed which might be indicative of them getting out. A 100 point gap down and you will have cloud burst of supply believe me, and the falling momentum may turn the party into shoksabha. :) We will see and if we are good traders we will profit from whatever direction market takes.

Add:
By the way keep an eye on banking sector. If the banks hold the ground bulls are safe. It is the obscure midcap companise that go down first when the bad news hit. :)
 
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SexyTrader

Well-Known Member
#5
We have had a rip-roaring party on the stock exchange the past few sessions. The indices have zoomed. All are bears have turned bulls. (leave a few exceptions) And now there is political instability, as Mamta Banarjee has announced withrdawal of support to the UPA, brining in the prospects of a mid-term election. In effects it means, no more reforms.So what happens to our stock market.? The question is how the market will open and trade on Thursday.?

I presume an indicator of things to come will be reflected on Singapore Nifty tomorrow.

However a preview of it is already reflected on NYSE. ICICI ADR have been trading 2% lower. Infosys though is muted in reaction and is down 0.40% presently (half day of trading)

Probably, we can expect a gap down and a correction of about 1-2%, hopefully.

What are member's views?
Its time to party with the markets, when it opens on Thursday :thumb:

Look forward to a roaring ride on both Thursday & Friday :rofl:

No positionals anymore in this current scenario....now its time to pump and dump.....INTRADAY :thumb:
 

Reggie

Well-Known Member
#6
Singapore Nifty closed at 5,552 today (19th).

Its time to party with the markets, when it opens on Thursday :thumb:

Look forward to a roaring ride on both Thursday & Friday :rofl:

No positionals anymore in this current scenario....now its time to pump and dump.....INTRADAY :thumb:
 

Anillal

Active Member
#7
Ours is a strange country. We have all the money for latest phones and gizmos every second month but not for the fair price of LPG and diesel. They need to be subsidised or else... I fully agree with Mr Sexytrader it is currently more prudent to pump and dump EOD and then enter market fresh next day instead of going positional in such a volatile atomosphere. Particularly on the long side. Politicians are bickering on regional lines and on the other side we have people running India Inc who are so greedy and bereft of any moral responsibility toward the future of india that they can not see beyond their little noses. You know Mr. Adi Godrej seemed to have taken leave of his senses when last week he went on record in a newsmagazine saying, Farmers should sell their land and invest the money in stocks. Who would ask this senile gentleman that from where the food will come if all the agricultural land got sold to industry? From Godrej industries located on Mars? Not to mention their stocks would also turn worthless eventually as a result. :)
 

Sunny1

Well-Known Member
#8
Reggie sir. Although states havebeen given the freedom to implement or reject FDI in retail but still Mamata Banarjee walked out of UPA. This goes on to show that she also has national dreams like so many regional players. So it was just a matter of time and appropriate pretext. She may be haughty but at least one thing is going for her. She is a down to earth decent and honest person compared to the thugs like Modis and Pawars and Yadavs. So good luck to her. But what amuses me most is to notice how uncanny it is that the trinamool walking out conincides with overheated market. Having hooped three huge gaps it was already out of breath. Yesbank 10 points down so is LICHSGFIN and both indices are stalled. Is it corrective process which is going to provide another chance to people who missed out entering the rally due to explosive gap ups or is it going to be UPA part retracting on its promises in turn forcing Bulls to say bye-bye Kansas? I think the answer lies on either side of 5450-5375 zone.
Decent and honest ....my foot.....she is no regard for public ...and sure she is politician first and last ...

she was in railway ministry what she did ? when lalu was in this ministry he gave crores of rupees of dividend to govt ...that was many years ago ..
after that number of trains and revenue has increased many fold ....what divident she gave to govt ? sure she has eaten away all money ...
and protested railway fare hike which was necessary for growth of railway all over india and also consider inflation in these years ? why ???

she has asked for bengal package from central govt ....for thousands of crores ......she did only when she came in power in west bengal
why she didnt asked this package ealier when cpm was in power (as she was in the upa 2)

it was only logical that she would walk out ...because she is now in power in west bengal ...drunk in power..and want more power ...so all these drama ..
 

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