Dear Traderbest,
First of all, understand why traders lose money.
IMO, most of the traders lose money because of their emotion, trade setup and management, Risk Management, getting into trade early, holding onto losing trades for longer and getting out of winning trades too early. Most of the times novice traders or for instance any trader picks the right stock and in the right direction but more than stock picking, trade and risk management is the MOST IMPORTANT thing for success in stock market.
This is just my observation and it might depend on the person trading so see what fits best for you and follow the same. :thumb::thumb:
You have nicely put it,that sums up the entire trading business.
But to answer the thread starters original question.
If you flip every signal generated by your system based on negative expectancy,without considering all the parameters involved when the flipped trade won in hindsight,
you would loose again.
Every statistic recording losing trades record stop outs,but did you record the direction of move after stop out,maybe market moved in your direction only after stop out.
And the flip trading doesn't account for the target selection once you generated a counter trade,so you may have placed a counter trade,even that counter trade may
move back to stop you out during normal market retracement before hitting target.
Fact is you're just counting win or loose,you don't know a thing about the direction and extent and even the time frame for realization of profit if trade is reversed.
If you want proper number crunching,of Negative expectancy.
Organize data in terms of losses which generated counter moves which you could easily capitalize by target setting.
Organize data in terms of stop out which go straight one way after being stopped out.
Organize the data of range stop outs in which price reverts to same range when you get stopped out,flip trades would also fail on range days.
Organize according to stop outs which move back in your favor.
Also account for stop outs which just come back after being in healthy profit for a long while.
Finally Organize Stop outs due to emotional mess up,and unforeseen circumstances.
Hopefully after all the data accumulation you will get a net negative expectancy which can be capitalized after being countered in real time.
Some real nice contributions were made in this thread.
You can build your view upon what has been presented very easily.
God bless you.