If 90% of traders fail, why not just do the opposite?

#1
I think that if traders trade exact opposite way they are trading would turn the 90% losing traders into winners? ie instead of going long, short, and vice-versa.

It seem that the best way to trade would be to share real time strategies (with bad, or really bad traders) and simply do the opposite of them? Seems a great way to make money!

Or do the opposite of what you intend to do..i know it would have worked for me atleast on paper..
 

ram2010

Well-Known Member
#4
I think that if traders trade exact opposite way they are trading would turn the 90% losing traders into winners? ie instead of going long, short, and vice-versa.

It seem that the best way to trade would be to share real time strategies (with bad, or really bad traders) and simply do the opposite of them? Seems a great way to make money!

Or do the opposite of what you intend to do..i know it would have worked for me atleast on paper..
Trading is as just as flipping a coin,

There is no consistency here- complete random movements-

you donot or cannot know whether your trade will hit the target,

Then where your 'opposite trade' comes to the picture-
 

Shikamaru

What a drag!!!
#5
In plain a context it seems simple, but Market is random
at any given time i.e., your time of entry and exit price level

For example, SL hit doesn't mean that Price will move in the same
direction as SL hit, it may reverse and resume its original direction after
one or two tick of SL level.

This theory was already tried and failed, I unable recollect which forum
I read that but serious experiment done in Forex ended in failure.
Simply, Market proved it randomness at all time

You are trying contrarian setup of your original setup, but I have no
clue how you account the randomness. If you are good in algo try
backtest and you can find some result to strength your statement.

I am crazy enough to think and checked where future candle
can predictable using market depth though I knew how market
order flowing in and out of exchange and you knew the result :D
But I haven't tried anything in real money. some times
craziness required for me to kill the boredom of trading


All the best for your experiment. :thumb:
 

nikki5_me

Active Member
#8
I think that if traders trade exact opposite way they are trading would turn the 90% losing traders into winners? ie instead of going long, short, and vice-versa.

It seem that the best way to trade would be to share real time strategies (with bad, or really bad traders) and simply do the opposite of them? Seems a great way to make money!

Or do the opposite of what you intend to do..i know it would have worked for me atleast on paper..
Dear Traderbest,

First of all, understand why traders lose money.

IMO, most of the traders lose money because of their emotion, trade setup and management, Risk Management, getting into trade early, holding onto losing trades for longer and getting out of winning trades too early. Most of the times novice traders or for instance any trader picks the right stock and in the right direction but more than stock picking, trade and risk management is the MOST IMPORTANT thing for success in stock market.

This is just my observation and it might depend on the person trading so see what fits best for you and follow the same. :thumb::thumb:
 
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Trader987

The Disciplined Trader
#9
Dear Traderbest,

First of all, understand why traders lose money.

IMO, most of the traders lose money because of their emotion, trade setup and management, Risk Management, getting into trade early, holding onto losing trades for longer and getting out of winning trades too early. Most of the times novice traders or for instance any trader picks the right stock and in the right direction but more than stock picking, trade and risk management is the MOST IMPORTANT thing for success in stock market.

This is just my observation and it might depend on the person trading so see what fits best for you and follow the same. :thumb::thumb:
Very true...!!!

People learn these things in a hard way.

Before that they try some strategies and when they fail they try to reverse it...& again fail..:D
 

Tavnaz

Well-Known Member
#10
Dear Traderbest,

First of all, understand why traders lose money.

IMO, most of the traders lose money because of their emotion, trade setup and management, Risk Management, getting into trade early, holding onto losing trades for longer and getting out of winning trades too early. Most of the times novice traders or for instance any trader picks the right stock and in the right direction but more than stock picking, trade and risk management is the MOST IMPORTANT thing for success in stock market.

This is just my observation and it might depend on the person trading so see what fits best for you and follow the same. :thumb::thumb:
You have nicely put it,that sums up the entire trading business.

But to answer the thread starters original question.
If you flip every signal generated by your system based on negative expectancy,without considering all the parameters involved when the flipped trade won in hindsight,
you would loose again.
Every statistic recording losing trades record stop outs,but did you record the direction of move after stop out,maybe market moved in your direction only after stop out.
And the flip trading doesn't account for the target selection once you generated a counter trade,so you may have placed a counter trade,even that counter trade may
move back to stop you out during normal market retracement before hitting target.
Fact is you're just counting win or loose,you don't know a thing about the direction and extent and even the time frame for realization of profit if trade is reversed.
If you want proper number crunching,of Negative expectancy.
Organize data in terms of losses which generated counter moves which you could easily capitalize by target setting.
Organize data in terms of stop out which go straight one way after being stopped out.
Organize the data of range stop outs in which price reverts to same range when you get stopped out,flip trades would also fail on range days.
Organize according to stop outs which move back in your favor.
Also account for stop outs which just come back after being in healthy profit for a long while.
Finally Organize Stop outs due to emotional mess up,and unforeseen circumstances.
Hopefully after all the data accumulation you will get a net negative expectancy which can be capitalized after being countered in real time.

Some real nice contributions were made in this thread.
You can build your view upon what has been presented very easily.
God bless you.
:)
 
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