I can help you with stock chart reading

[kumar7]

Dear VV: Rajesh export & Gitanjali gem

Dear VV,

Gitanjali Gem looks strong on charts, I've some stocks; can you compare it with Classic Diamonds?

Rajesh Exports (last year was spectacular for the stock) is weaker on charts(above 50 day EMA though), but I think it will become interesting only after it crosses 200-213 convincingly; I have already entered the stock to catch the inevitable appreciation because of approaching diwali season.

Can you, please, give your take on it.

Thanks,
Kumar

 

[GKHERA99]

Vv,
Views Valecha Engineering,gupta Synthetics,elnet Technology
Regards

 

[vvonteru]

Re: Dear VV: Rajesh export & Gitanjali gem

Dear VV,

Gitanjali Gem looks strong on charts, I've some stocks; can you compare it with Classic Diamonds?

I observed that stocks kind of go in 3 stages. Most of the time, at the 3rd stage, they cannot keep up the previous momentum (buyers don't want to buy so high and sellers had enough profit) and either correct or go sideways before they continue up. Thats what is happening to CLASSIC and so many stocks. What are our options if we are already in the stock.

1. Stay in the stock till its corrected.
2. Use MACD cross down to get out of the stock. Get back in after MACD cross up.

I don't need to tell U that the options will have different results. Try to follow only 1 option all the time.

Gitanjali looks very good. Its in the second stage.

Rajesh Exports (last year was spectacular for the stock) is weaker on charts(above 50 day EMA though), but I think it will become interesting only after it crosses 200-213 convincingly; I have already entered the stock to catch the inevitable appreciation because of approaching diwali season.

Can you, please, give your take on it.

Thanks,
Kumar

I am positive about the stock. Compare the volume in July when it reached 200 versus now. Stock has prospects.

U are picking good stocks. Thanks for sharing. Let us know how U are coming up with these stocks to help others.

Valecha Engineering,gupta Synthetics,elnet Technology

Valecha Engineering
-- I will wait on this till crosses 200 and then pulls back. Wait for crossover test.

gupta Synthetics
-- Have patience with this stock. The pull backs are going sideways. Use MACD cross up to time the entry from the sideways action.

elnet Technology
--Avoid. Low volume and Not great price action. After the fall in May, this stock didn't move out of the Rs20 range. Unless it moves above 80 successfully and pulls back.

 

[rangarajan]

Well said VV.No,they never suggest S/L or position mgt & it is upto you.By & large,in the last two years,their picks had given 40% returns on medium term time frame(5-8 months) 0n 60% of their recomm,outwitting the losses.you require patience & confidence in them.
As for Icsa & Ankur,they had given >60% returns & are good for trading also.
ranga

 

[vvonteru]

Dear VV.

Tata Tea is looking good for shorting.. The MACD is showing a negative divergence..snd the 200 day EMA is acting as a solid support once below it can go down majorly...

I don't know if its the right time to short. Indexes had a good day on Monday. So far they are going up, why really short. Unless U want to use overbought conditions in indexes and short them. At this point of time, resist shorting individual stocks. U should have plenty of stocks to fill your portfolio on the long side. Pick one from each sector.

Reading indicators is tricky as they don't work all the time. MACD does not work if the stock is going sideways. It shows negative histogram and crosses down. Nothing bad at that point. Can go bad or the stock may resume the trend. Don't make a decision using just MACD if the stock is going sideways. MACD is a trend following indicator.

Furthermore, Satyam Comp is looking good for a long position(Pullback strategy)

Pls comment

Regard
Rohit

I like SatyamComp. I resisted from suggesting because of the volume. Volume has been decreasing for the recent uptrend from July.

 

[chachi]

Hello VV,

Please have a look at ERACONS (Era Construction). Seems to have been making nice progress. In the past it has attempted 3 times to break the 300 barrier. Chart attached. Today it started gap up and quoting at about 314, near its upper circuit. Construction shares had a nice run yesterday, and seems to be catching the other sectors. I like to have your views on it.

Also please give your views on HCC (Hindustan Construction)

Regards
Chachi

 

[swingtrader]

vvonteru,

>> SRI DIGV CEM S ORDINARY (iCharts does not consider recent split. I think they sincerely need good data. I am losing trust on the site. Are you hearing Swing Trader?)

Sorry for the late reply, I have not been frequenting Traderji recently. I have been too tied up with improving iCharts. I am posting this to let you and others know how we collect data and adjust it. We download daily NSE & BSE bhavcopies and update our database. This data, of course, is not split/bonus adjusted. We adjust for splits/bonus only at the start of a month (for the previous month's splits & bonuses). But if a user requests that we adjust for a stock then we do it earlier. This delay is due to the manual process involved in adjusting the data. Everything else on iCharts is automated except price adjustments and since we are only two guys working on iCharts with a huge backlog of things to do and that is the reason for this delay is there.

But I am not making excuses, I know things need to improve in the price adjustment area. We are looking at ways of generating revenue so we can buy split/bonus adjusted data so this problem goes away (assuming the data vendors adjust prices at least once or twice a week). Until then please bear with us.

If anything on iCharts website bugs someone please send me an email at srikanth at icharts dot in but please don't lose trust in us. We are trying our best to excel and will continue to improve as time goes by.

NOTE: We recently started providing BSE charts, we have not yet started adjusting prices for it. Only NSE prices are adjusted at the moment.

--SwingTrader

 

[vvonteru]

vvonteru,

>> SRI DIGV CEM S ORDINARY (iCharts does not consider recent split. I think they sincerely need good data. I am losing trust on the site. Are you hearing Swing Trader?)

Sorry for the late reply, I have not been frequenting Traderji recently. I have been too tied up with improving iCharts. I am posting this to let you and others know how we collect data and adjust it. We download daily NSE & BSE bhavcopies and update our database. This data, of course, is not split/bonus adjusted. We adjust for splits/bonus only at the start of a month (for the previous month's splits & bonuses). But if a user requests that we adjust for a stock then we do it earlier. This delay is due to the manual process involved in adjusting the data. Everything else on iCharts is automated except price adjustments and since we are only two guys working on iCharts with a huge backlog of things to do and that is the reason for this delay is there.

But I am not making excuses, I know things need to improve in the price adjustment area. We are looking at ways of generating revenue so we can buy split/bonus adjusted data so this problem goes away (assuming the data vendors adjust prices at least once or twice a week). Until then please bear with us.

If anything on iCharts website bugs someone please send me an email at srikanth at icharts dot in but please don't lose trust in us. We are trying our best to excel and will continue to improve as time goes by.

NOTE: We recently started providing BSE charts, we have not yet started adjusting prices for it. Only NSE prices are adjusted at the moment.

--SwingTrader

Thanks for the clarification about the split information. In spite of the wrong split data in some charts, iCharts is the best site for Indian Charts. I use and suggest in my thread iCharts for regular stock check up. Unless I am selecting for a trade, scanning or suggesting for a trade, I use Amibroker. So, thanks for the all the hard work U guys are putting in. I see so much improvement in the website in the last 6 months. From providing BSE data to intraday data to nice graphic charts. We all appreciate your work.

If U look around on the net, no site is offering a stock chart after a split. If U do it as and when it occurs, thats the edge your website will have. The last thing U want for your website is providing wrong data. Price and Volume Data are the key more then all the nice graphic charts and indicators. So, I sincerely suggest U give more priority to data than anything else.

 

[vvonteru]

Hello VV,

Please have a look at ERACONS (Era Construction). Seems to have been making nice progress. In the past it has attempted 3 times to break the 300 barrier. Chart attached. Today it started gap up and quoting at about 314, near its upper circuit. Construction shares had a nice run yesterday, and seems to be catching the other sectors. I like to have your views on it.

Also please give your views on HCC (Hindustan Construction)

Regards
Chachi

I like ERACONS. Nice price and volume action.

HCC looks good too. Are we back in into the bull market mode again? Where U see everything propping up!!!

Some stocks are joining the party late. Buying at the beginning of the trend is the low risk high reward play. Ofcourse, determining the beginning is the key. I use crossover to determine the beginning. There may be other ways U could explore.

 

[agupta]

Hey VV,

Any thoughts on Jaiprakash Associates? Here is a story on Moneycontrol.com about the company.

Karani told CNBC-TV18, Jaiprakash Associates is the biggest story in the entire infrastructure space in this country. Not many people realise what kind of consolidate company JP Associate is, so would like to break it down for you. It is a 7 million tonne cement company, which is expanding to 13 million tonne. So by December 07, the company will become 13 million tonne. It is putting up another 2 million with SAIL as part of its joint venture partner where it has 75%. So net-net it will become a 15 million tonne cement company by December 07.

He further added, It is the largest EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) contractor in the hydroelectric power space and we believe that it is the largest and one of the best in the country. Around Rs 11,000-12,000 crore (Rs 110-120 billion) worth of orders are pending with it.

It has three power subsidiaries. If one takes a consolidated view this company would add around Rs 65 to JPs valuation per share. But the biggest sweetener lies in JPs Taj Expressway project. This project could become one of the largest property stories in the country also. We believe that the Taj Expressway Project, which is 160 km expressway project. It is to be built by JP from Agra to Noida. They have a right to collect toll for 36 years. But the biggest story in the JP lies in the 6000 acre of land, which has been allotted to them to develop this project. So the BOT project, which JP is doing, is going to get revenue for 36 years from operating the highway.

But the biggest windfall for JP will come from the point of 6,000 acres of developmental land, which has been given to this company. It is a bit subdued at this level. But we have confirmed understanding that this 6000-acre of land would be available. Just to put it into perspective, as far the valuation is concerned the market cap of JP is around Rs 8500 crore (Rs 85 billion) as of date and if I put a value to this land it would be Rs 18,000 crore (Rs 180 billion) only on the land value. So they are talking about almost double the size of the entire marketcap of the value of the land, which has been allotted to JP. So it could be a bigger blockbuster story, which we believe is a great play on the infrastructure and the property sector in this country.

We have a target of Rs 750 till JP expressway comes into play. Once the JP expressway comes into play we believe it could be Rs 1250 per share of the JP. Because what you said companies do not get value on land but the kind of land bank this company will have and the developmental rights and going forward the developmental projects, this company will do along with a cement play, which is almost 15 million tonne cement, which will make it a third largest cement company almost in this country. We believe JP is highly under valued its level and from now on in next one and a half years it could be a multi-bagger story in the making.

It seems good fundamentally but just wanted your thoughts on the TA perspective as well. Could you please let me know both your short and long-term views on the stock? Thanks a bunch.

BTW, congratulations on a 1000 posts.