How gap-ups or downs are created in NIFTY futures?

toocool

Well-Known Member
#11
The market works on a bid and ask price right? So what if you put an extremely high bid price before the market opens. say market is trading at 6400 and you put bid it up to 7000, the market will gap?
A bid is not a fictional entity, there is money behind it if someone is bidding at 7000 nifty price it means he/she thinks that there is still money to be made even after this high a price............. But if it didn't happen and suppose the next bid is straight @ 6400 only?

He loses money immidiately............ Not only this, a bid has to be filled with a ask price, for every buyer there has to be a seller, and that both price must match to make a trade if bid is @7000 and ask is even @7001, there will not be a trade, unless bidder or asker either become flexible and agree to match the price of opposite party...................... Think about it, and then think there are virtually millions of potential bidder and asker, who in the sentiments of whatever (competition, bullishness, bearishness) will keep trying to beat others in the game, and will try to bid and ask ahead of one another........................ Still any doubts on how markets work?

Still think markets can be manipulated?

No power under the sun...................(assuming honest and liquid exchanges)
 
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stock72

Well-Known Member
#12
If market sentiment is bullish over night and in the morning people try buy nifty 50 stocks .say I will place an buy order in TCS with .5% more of previous day close . some one may place sell order .49% of previous close price ( this guy might be either wish to book profit or covering up his short position after understanding the over night sentiment ) . The moment market opens our above trade will be executed . Means this will add few points to nifty on long side . Like this all 50 stocks trades will happen on that split second and all points will be calculated and added up to nifty to get that moment nifty value .
 
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onlinegtrash

Well-Known Member
#13
I think I am repeating myself here in this forum but

There is not a power under the sun, which can manipulate any liquid, highly liquid markets, obviously I am assuming that stock exchanges are working properly and are an honest entity, and I think Indian stock exchanges now a days are highly liquid and come under an honest exchanges. ...
I can see your point with commodities and forex markets,
those markets are way bigger than any of the biggest participants.

am not sure we can say the same thing with respect to NSE FNO.
How will you explain Oct 2012 crash of 800+ pts?
It was attributed to fat finger error of one big agent.

Every exchange should disclose the maximum firepower (money) needed
to break down their fair operations. For eg. forex markets' maximum firepower needed
to manipulate currencies is bigger than GDP of top countries put together,
so they are safe and fair places. From Oct 2012 crash it seems,
fire power needed to disrupt NSE is quit affordable for a single investing agent!

anyways as a trader, who cares, will role with the markets!
 

toocool

Well-Known Member
#14
I can see your point with commodities and forex markets,
those markets are way bigger than any of the biggest participants.

am not sure we can say the same thing with respect to NSE FNO.
How will you explain Oct 2012 crash of 800+ pts?
It was attributed to fat finger error of one big agent.

Every exchange should disclose the maximum firepower (money) needed
to break down their fair operations. For eg. forex markets' maximum firepower needed
to manipulate currencies is bigger than GDP of top countries put together,
so they are safe and fair places. From Oct 2012 crash it seems,
fire power needed to disrupt NSE is quit affordable for a single investing agent!

anyways as a trader, who cares, will role with the markets!

you are right that oct crash happened but i think it should be taken as an exception , these fat finger crashes dont happen every day these are once in a blue moon affair ,these cannot be even said manipulative , nobody wants to make fast money once in a blue moon .

manipulation to me ,means keeping prices at desired levels for extended periods of time :) ...............to accumulate or distribute the stocks

flash crashes are different things :)
 

sridhar

Active Member
#15
My personal gut feel is that the FIIs do try and influence the market movement. On any one day average buying & selling in cash market is say around Rs. 1500 Cr. The trade positions in the derivatives market is easily 5-10 times more.

So it is possible to set up a move where one party pushes up the index, by buying index stocks & the rest take positions in the opposite direction in derivatives. The role of bakra & profiteer can rotate amongst the cabal in an orderly fashion.

Now take the trade of 16th. opening. In 1st. 5 min. Futures worth 780 Cr. were traded. At the same time in PE options from 5300 to 5900 14.81 Cr. were traded.
Total position in Equity is (-) 77.5 Cr. for the day, with traded amount being 2700Cr.
Approx. 2250 Cr. trade has taken place in Index Futures & 18000 Cr. in Index Options for the day.
My feel is that purchasing of Rs. 100 - 150 Cr. (Sell later for a loss of max 5-10 Cr. - easily covered by Derivatives profits.!) in select stocks of the Index should be sufficient to move the index by 100 points. I could confirm this calculation is that If I get the link for actual stocks 5 min trade data.

The government is actually turning a blind eye to this because they are more interested in the STT & turnover fees & stamp duty.
 

onlinegtrash

Well-Known Member
#16
My personal gut feel is that the FIIs do try and influence the market movement. On any one day average buying & selling in cash market is say around Rs. 1500 Cr. The trade positions in the derivatives market is easily 5-10 times more.

So it is possible to set up a move where one party pushes up the index, by buying index stocks & the rest take positions in the opposite direction in derivatives. The role of bakra & profiteer can rotate amongst the cabal in an orderly fashion.

Now take the trade of 16th. opening. In 1st. 5 min. Futures worth 780 Cr. were traded. At the same time in PE options from 5300 to 5900 14.81 Cr. were traded.
Total position in Equity is (-) 77.5 Cr. for the day, with traded amount being 2700Cr.
Approx. 2250 Cr. trade has taken place in Index Futures & 18000 Cr. in Index Options for the day.
My feel is that purchasing of Rs. 100 - 150 Cr. (Sell later for a loss of max 5-10 Cr. - easily covered by Derivatives profits.!) in select stocks of the Index should be sufficient to move the index by 100 points. I could confirm this calculation is that If I get the link for actual stocks 5 min trade data.

The government is actually turning a blind eye to this because they are more interested in the STT & turnover fees & stamp duty.
even if Govt wants to regulate such activities...
what can they do? I guess nothing. Hedging strategies can't be seen as manipulation.
Its simply a type of delta neutral strategy or some type of spread trading with massive scale, who can complain that!
Its traders beware situation !
 
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toocool

Well-Known Member
#17
My personal gut feel is that the FIIs do try and influence the market movement. On any one day average buying & selling in cash market is say around Rs. 1500 Cr. The trade positions in the derivatives market is easily 5-10 times more.

So it is possible to set up a move where one party pushes up the index, by buying index stocks & the rest take positions in the opposite direction in derivatives. The role of bakra & profiteer can rotate amongst the cabal in an orderly fashion.

Now take the trade of 16th. opening. In 1st. 5 min. Futures worth 780 Cr. were traded. At the same time in PE options from 5300 to 5900 14.81 Cr. were traded.
Total position in Equity is (-) 77.5 Cr. for the day, with traded amount being 2700Cr.
Approx. 2250 Cr. trade has taken place in Index Futures & 18000 Cr. in Index Options for the day.
My feel is that purchasing of Rs. 100 - 150 Cr. (Sell later for a loss of max 5-10 Cr. - easily covered by Derivatives profits.!) in select stocks of the Index should be sufficient to move the index by 100 points. I could confirm this calculation is that If I get the link for actual stocks 5 min trade data.

The government is actually turning a blind eye to this because they are more interested in the STT & turnover fees & stamp duty.

okayyyyyyy

so you think when fii's are manipulating the markets , sebi and specially their competitors just sit on their ass and do nothing ?

i do not think so , why would dii and banks and other domestic entities would sit out and say nothing to these manipulation , they are also participating in the markets and unless they all (fii and dii and other domestic institution) are on same side of the boat , they will be killed ..................its funny how you are just assuming things:)

not only that , if what you are saying is true than nothing on charts works , yes its true most trendlines and patterns break and do not materialize but once they do ,depending upon the time frame , they indicate some higher level of things going on in the markets which has nothing to do with manipulation .......................its chaos

chaos means complete disorder , but actually chaos is a higher form of order without chaos we will be dead

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

i will posts about something amazing a bit later
 
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Mr.G

Well-Known Member
#18
We need more of these intellectual Phd debate type conversions. It really showed how intelligent traders and investors really are.
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
#19
@Onlinegtrash

An explanation in a nutshell you can addapt to your market:

Goldman Sachs and other player sometimes come in with an order of 2000 or more atm or otm options in the S&P 500. If we are able to see that order size and to see if this are put or calls, we know that Goldman Sachs know something and we can anticipate a move in the S&P 500 according to the information given thru the put or call. (I will come to the stragies played at the end of this post)

If this happen on a specific share with not to big volume, it is very clear that the share is going to move very soon in the direction of the bought or sold option. Broker houses have the tools to watch the big guys 24 hours a day and according true that information they have an advantage and can play the game a bit in another way. Every big broker in the States has such screening software for the biggies, so your big brokers and banks should be in the same situation.

The S&P500 is huge, so not even GS or other big players can manipulate much. Another case are the stocks. Here GS and other big players clearly can manipulate the direction of the price just by the volumes (USD) they are able to spend for such orders. (But is the word manipulation absolut the right word or maybe not?)

Another example are certain future markets. Even smaller traders can become market makers through the size they hold in lots and the price of bid or ask which they are willing to offer to the other participants. Stuff like mention from Mr.G is out of question, as market participants are not stupid. This game has nothing to do with inverstors nor is it a game for children and would like to be like we have some here in the forum; instead a game for very hard calculating, very fact and money oriented people and traders with no mercy for their counterparts. The idea in such, many times very clever in advance prepared games, is in many cases the money now and today. There are sometimes other reasons behind it, but the money must follow relativ quickly in such events. So, traders and speculators do fame and are in charge of those short time events and not investors. Guess non of the onces which really bring in qualitative informatin with any value in this thread are deeply related to investors play in any kind. Would like to be FA inverstors should not even try this game and better stay in their places, as traders do not give any advises to their ways of investing. Two complete different worlds. There is meat and there are bones. Those who do that business and make constant money with it are in most cases the bones and those who loose in such moments are in most cases meat. Sounds hard, but be true about your selfs. How many times did you lose money on such market behavior, how many times did you make money with such market behavior and how many times have you been in a place to be the reason for such a market event?

I am not sure if in Nifty someone is able to manipulate the whole market. That is why I wrote Millions are not the case. But as you now say that it would be possible, so then it would also be easy for the big guys and brokers, who watch each other, to know who this would be. If one of the big players would know that from the other big player and the whole game would be to his disadvantage because of that manipulation from that specific company, he would act for example by looking for other big partners to get revenche on that specific company. Happens in the past when G. Soros was put out of a huge game in a speculation against the currencies of a certain country. The big boys stood together against him and in that specific case he lost huge sums of money.

In the share market any big player can for example hold a huge bunch of shares from a specific company. If they now decide to sell that huge amount of shares to their customers or to the public for whatever reason, they will surely buy puts to make further profit on that share, as when selling huge amount of shares in a short time, the price of the share will fall. Not in all cases, but read on. Is it manipulation? As mentioned in one of the post: Difficult to find out. It is my right to hedge my position for whatever reason. The one who offers in this example the shares to the public did not force others to buy them. So instead of manipulation we also could say: Tactical game.

So the strategies used from all the big players include small market makers are very simple at the moment they know what their orders can have for an impact in specific markets with specific derivatives. Big guys and others who ever have been market makers in any kind of such market know that impact very precesely, otherwise you do not get in that position and stay there. So the hedges are from simple like synthetic put and calls to more complicate with three legs like calendar collars or the use of LEAP options. I could add some more strategies here, but in general the rules also here: Simple and quick, so the money is nailed and the risk is gone.

Now if this gives any answer to your thread title, you have to decide by your self. But at least you got some more information and thoughts which surely are worth to discuss further in your thread if needed.

Take care / DanPickUp
 
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sam_kuw

Well-Known Member
#20
We need more of these intellectual Phd debate type conversions. It really showed how intelligent traders and investors really are.
Ur right.
We really have smart guys in TJ.:thumb:
:clap:
 

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