General Elections 2019

[trendtrade]

Slightly lower polling in these elections as compared to 2014.

69.43% turnout in 1st phase of LS polls: EC

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Does lower turnout helps the ruling party in the results outcome, or is it better for the opposition ? Or no such inference could be made just based on lower turnout values ?

Regards

 

[timepass]

Does lower turnout helps the ruling party in the results outcome, or is it better for the opposition ? Or no such inference could be made just based on lower turnout values ?

Regards

not very significant difference, just about 1%. So I think that it is inconclusive.

 

[siddhant4u]

it depends which area saw lower turnouts and which had higher. If earlier bjp had majority seats in say Bihar and there is lower turnout this would result in bjp loosing seats. In case of WB, tide will turn against Mamta as people out vote in such numbers if they want someone out.

 

[timepass]

There, there.. three cheers for the Supreme Court.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sup...g-action-against-leaders-violating-mo-2023201

"Are You Aware Of Your Powers?": Top Court To Election Commission


These are the things that form the various pillars of our democracy !!

 

[Nifty Option Trader]

First two options will definitely keep the market intact in short term(say next 3 to 6 months).
But I was just wondering about the third option.
What do you think if Rahul gandhi becomes PM or say any one from other regional party becomes PM.
And will the market react same way in both cases?

 

[timepass]

Way to go, Election Commissioner !! :clap:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ting-code-of-conduct/articleshow/68888245.cms

EC 'censures' Yogi, Mayawati from campaigning for violating Code of Conduct
TNN | Apr 15, 2019, 03.34 PM IST

New Delhi: The Election Commission on Monday “censured” UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath & BSP chief Mayawati for their communal remarks during campaigning and barred them from holding any public meetings, road shows, giving interviews and public utterances in media including social media, for 72 hours and 48 hours respectively.

The period of their debarment — which as per EC order prohibits them from holding any public meetings, public processions, public rallies, road shows and interviews and public utterances in media (electronic, print, social media) etc in connection with ongoing elections - starts at 6 am on Tuesday (April 16). This means that while Yogi has to stay away from campaigning till 6 am on April 19, Mayawati can resume campaign after 6 am on April 18.


Effectively, the two leaders cannot campaign in constituencies covered in the second phase of polling due on April 18, after 10 pm on Monday.

EC in its order on Monday said that it “strongly condemns” Yogi for his “green virus” and “Ali-Bajrangbali" remarks during election campaign in Meerut on April 9 and “censures” him for the “misconduct”.

Similarly, EC “strongly condemned” and "censured" Mayawati for her "highly provocative speech" on April 7 at Deoband, Saharanpur, saying that the tone and tenor of her references to Muslims stood to aggravate existing differences between religious communities.


EC, in its separate orders on model code violations by Yogi and Mayawati, observed that being senior leaders, they should have desisted from "making statements that have the undertone and propensity to polarise the elections, which is not confined to the constituency only where the statement is made, but to other parts as well, due to fast dissemination of information in this digital age".


Using its powers under under Article 324 of Constitution and other enabling laws, EC barred Yogi and Mayawati from all kinds of campaigning for 72 hours and 48 hours respectively.


The punishment for Yogi was higher as this is the second time he has been found guilty by EC for having violated the model code of conduct. EC has earlier let him off with advice to be more careful with his public utterances in the future.


This is not the first time that EC has barred top political leaders and star campaigners from campaigning. BJP president Amit Shah and SP leader Azam Khan were banned from holding public meetings and rallies in UP during last Lok Sabha poll. BJP leader Giriraj Singh was also barred from campaigning in Bihar and Jharkhand.

 

[siddhant4u]

First two options will definitely keep the market intact in short term(say next 3 to 6 months).
But I was just wondering about the third option.
What do you think if Rahul gandhi becomes PM or say any one from other regional party becomes PM.
And will the market react same way in both cases?

third case market would tank as congress or any one else for that matter will have no clear majority. Such govt will fall within 1-2 years.

Even in 2nd case, market is bound to go down as it's already overheated. Judging by the pre-poll numbers, BJP will have fewer seats than last time. May be anticipating this Modi is not giving tickets to 'old brigade' . If they are not there to vote him out from bjp leadership he could still be PM. Amit Shah being MP will be helpful to his cause. I envision Sushma ( or Rajnath Singh) being made Speaker or may be sent out of cabinet to make way for Amit Shah.

 

[timepass]

Can't say whether a mixed government will last a full term or not. Narsimha Rao ran a minority government for 3 years, Vajpayee's government fell within 13 days, being short of just 1 seat.

Either way, it will be the new government's policies and decision making which will decide the confidence of the market.

 

[Nifty Option Trader]

Looking at Last 3 lok sabha elections ..I think the market has guessed the results correctly.

In 2004 ..From March to election result day Market corrected to near 20% . NDA was expected to form Govt comfortably by Pre Poll survays. And Exit polls predicted hung parliament with advantage towards NDA. So the market reacted differently and it was right.

In 2009..Market Gained almost by almost 35% from march to Election days predicting a stable govt by UPA.

In 2014..Market gained after a correction before the elections...for a Stable NDA govt

This time the markets are gaining...and only NDA in current scenario is showing some hopes of a stable govt..

 

[ocil]

Why one 72 hours other 48? both should either 72 or 48.

Way to go, Election Commissioner !! :clap:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ting-code-of-conduct/articleshow/68888245.cms

EC 'censures' Yogi, Mayawati from campaigning for violating Code of Conduct
TNN | Apr 15, 2019, 03.34 PM IST

New Delhi: The Election Commission on Monday “censured” UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath & BSP chief Mayawati for their communal remarks during campaigning and barred them from holding any public meetings, road shows, giving interviews and public utterances in media including social media, for 72 hours and 48 hours respectively.

The period of their debarment — which as per EC order prohibits them from holding any public meetings, public processions, public rallies, road shows and interviews and public utterances in media (electronic, print, social media) etc in connection with ongoing elections - starts at 6 am on Tuesday (April 16). This means that while Yogi has to stay away from campaigning till 6 am on April 19, Mayawati can resume campaign after 6 am on April 18.


Effectively, the two leaders cannot campaign in constituencies covered in the second phase of polling due on April 18, after 10 pm on Monday.

EC in its order on Monday said that it “strongly condemns” Yogi for his “green virus” and “Ali-Bajrangbali" remarks during election campaign in Meerut on April 9 and “censures” him for the “misconduct”.

Similarly, EC “strongly condemned” and "censured" Mayawati for her "highly provocative speech" on April 7 at Deoband, Saharanpur, saying that the tone and tenor of her references to Muslims stood to aggravate existing differences between religious communities.


EC, in its separate orders on model code violations by Yogi and Mayawati, observed that being senior leaders, they should have desisted from "making statements that have the undertone and propensity to polarise the elections, which is not confined to the constituency only where the statement is made, but to other parts as well, due to fast dissemination of information in this digital age".


Using its powers under under Article 324 of Constitution and other enabling laws, EC barred Yogi and Mayawati from all kinds of campaigning for 72 hours and 48 hours respectively.


The punishment for Yogi was higher as this is the second time he has been found guilty by EC for having violated the model code of conduct. EC has earlier let him off with advice to be more careful with his public utterances in the future.


This is not the first time that EC has barred top political leaders and star campaigners from campaigning. BJP president Amit Shah and SP leader Azam Khan were banned from holding public meetings and rallies in UP during last Lok Sabha poll. BJP leader Giriraj Singh was also barred from campaigning in Bihar and Jharkhand.