Fundamental information on PEPPER-Bearish

#1
1. Spot prices were 34,000 Rs/Qtl (UN garbled) & 35,500 Rs/Qtl (Garbled) in Cochin.
2. In Brazil new crop is arriving, but the Brazilian exporters have already sold big quantities for the
shipment of September through December.
3. During Jan-Aug the export volume of pepper from Vietnam has touched 98,000 tons valued at USD 545
million, which is higher by 78% in value over the same period last year. The average export price in
August reached $ 6,066 / ton. Last month, the purchase price of black pepper was 115-120 thousand
VND / kg
4. In India, trading at domestic market is more active, following decreased local price this week coupled
with the strengthening of US Dollar against Indian Rupees
5. In August 2011, Malaysia is estimated to have shipped around 1,360 mt of pepper (1,245 mt of black
and 115 mt of white pepper) as against 1,233 mt (887 mt of black and 346 mt of white pepper) shipped
in August 2010
6. In the month of July exports of pepper from Brazil was reported at 745 tons valued at USD 4.846
millions
7. Indian production expected to decline to 48,000 MT. Reports of farmers shifting to other more
profitable crops have affected the production aspects for the crop in India.
8. IPC has predicted 2011 crop to be lower by 2% at 309,952 MT. Carry forward stocks are expected to
decline marginally to 94,582 MT vs 95,442 MT. Global exports have declined by 11% to 237,650 MT.
9. The domestic demand has been met almost fully by Karntaka which has been offering at lower cost
delivered anywhere in India.
10. According to the International Pepper Community, world pepper output this year will fall by about
6,500 tonnes against 2010 to 310,000 tonnes due to unfavorable weather conditions and pests in
several producing countries
11. During April-July 2011, a total quantity of 7550 MT of pepper valued Rs.20015.00 Lakhs was exported
as against 6800 MT valued Rs.11557.30 lakhs in the same period last year. The unit value of pepper
has increased from Rs.169.96 per kg in 2009-10 to Rs.265.10 per kg during 2010-11.
12. The Global Production to be 2.03% lower in 2011. Consumption to grow at 5% in 2011 as against 3.46%
in 2011
13. Carry-forward stocks in producing countries are projected to decline marginally to 94,582 tonne in
2011 from 95,442 tonne in 2010.
14. Indian parity in the International market for ASTA quality is $ 8380C&F (Oct. shipment) @ Newyork.
And F.O.B price is $6939 in India /MT
 
#2
Re: Fundamental information on PEPPER- still Bearish

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS & PRICE DRIVERS
1. Spot prices were 33,300 Rs/Qtl (UN garbled) & 34,800 Rs/Qtl (Garbled) in Cochin.
2. During Jan-Aug the export volume of pepper from Vietnam has touched 98,000 tons valued at USD 545
million, which is higher by 78% in value over the same period last year. The average export price in
August reached $ 6,066 / ton. Last month, the purchase price of black pepper was 115-120 thousand
VND / kg
3. In August 2011, Malaysia is estimated to have shipped around 1,360 mt of pepper (1,245 mt of black
and 115 mt of white pepper) as against 1,233 mt (887 mt of black and 346 mt of white pepper) shipped
in August 2010
4. Indian production expected to decline to 48,000 MT. Reports of farmers shifting to other more
profitable crops have affected the production aspects for the crop in India.
5. IPC has predicted 2011 crop to be lower by 2% at 309,952 MT. Carry forward stocks are expected to
decline marginally to 94,582 MT vs 95,442 MT. Global exports have declined by 11% to 237,650 MT.
6. The domestic demand has been met almost fully by Karntaka which has been offering at lower cost
delivered anywhere in India.
7. According to the International Pepper Community, world pepper output this year will fall by about
6,500 tonnes against 2010 to 310,000 tonnes due to unfavorable weather conditions and pests in
several producing countries
8. During April-July 2011, a total quantity of 7550 MT of pepper valued Rs.20015.00 Lakhs was exported
as against 6800 MT valued Rs.11557.30 lakhs in the same period last year. The unit value of pepper
has increased from Rs.169.96 per kg in 2009-10 to Rs.265.10 per kg during 2010-11.
9. The Global Production to be 2.03% lower in 2011. Consumption to grow at 5% in 2011 as against 3.46%
in 2011
10. Carry-forward stocks in producing countries are projected to decline marginally to 94,582 tonne in
2011 from 95,442 tonne in 2010.
11. Indian parity in the International market for ASTA quality is $ 8425C&F (Oct. shipment) @ Newyork.
And F.O.B price is $6966 in India /MT.
 
#3
FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS & PRICE DRIVERS
1. Spot prices were 33,000 Rs/Qtl (UN garbled) & 34,500 Rs/Qtl (Garbled) in Cochin.
2. The Black Pepper Production for the next crop season is likely to be lower than the 48,000 MT
estimated in the previous year due to Bad weather and decreasing yield.
3. During Jan- Aug 2011 total imports of pepper in to the US was slightly higher by 322 MT V/s
same period last year.
4. The crop harvesting normally begins in mid December in plains.
5. Pepper farmers are holding their stocks in anticipation of better prices this year against the
strong demand and short fall in the crop
6. During Jan-Aug the export volume of pepper from Vietnam has touched 98,000 tons valued at USD 545
million, which is higher by 78% in value over the same period last year. The average export price in
August reached $ 6,066 / ton. Last month, the purchase price of black pepper was 115-120 thousand
VND / kg
7. In August 2011, Malaysia is estimated to have shipped around 1,360 mt of pepper (1,245 mt of black
and 115 mt of white pepper) as against 1,233 mt (887 mt of black and 346 mt of white pepper) shipped
in August 2010.
8. IPC has predicted 2011 crop to be lower by 2% at 309,952 MT. Carry forward stocks are expected to
decline marginally to 94,582 MT vs 95,442 MT. Global exports have declined by 11% to 237,650 MT.
9. According to the International Pepper Community, world pepper output this year will fall by about
6,500 tonnes against 2010 to 310,000 tonnes due to unfavorable weather conditions and pests in
several producing countries
10. During April-July 2011, a total quantity of 7550 MT of pepper valued Rs.20015.00 Lakhs was exported
as against 6800 MT valued Rs.11557.30 lakhs in the same period last year. The unit value of pepper
has increased from Rs.169.96 per kg in 2009-10 to Rs.265.10 per kg during 2010-11.
11. The Global Production to be 2.03% lower in 2011. Consumption to grow at 5% in 2011 as against 3.46%
in 2011
12. Carry-forward stocks in producing countries are projected to decline marginally to 94,582 tonne in
2011 from 95,442 tonne in 2010.
13. Indian parity in the International market for ASTA quality is $ 7985C&F (Nov. shipment) @ Newyork.
And F.O.B price is $6908 in India /MT.
 

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