From My Trading system: 1-3 Day Trades

[arvind61]

Nifty Budget Day close was 5693 and today's close is 5694. Whether the downside is arrested here or there is more to fall is any ones guess.

Bottom has fallen off several stocks Don't see any turn around signal. Some stock have seen delivery based selling they may fall further. Stocks with heavy
delivery based selling are -

STOCK_NAME TRIG_DATE INDICATOR CALL PERIOD TEST_DES CUR_PRICE
LICHSGFIN 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 220.1
RENUKA 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 23.25
RPOWER 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 66.55
ALBK 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 129.7
TATAPOWER 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 98.4
WELCORP 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 48.95
RELIANCE 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 822.7
BHARTIARTL 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 100 Day High 280.05
SAIL 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 65.15
BANKINDIA 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 299
RELINFRA 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 100 Day High 359.15
DISHTV 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 100 Day High 62
RCOM 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 56.7
UNITECH 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 24.8
GMRINFRA 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 20
HDIL 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 30 Day High 48.65
ENGINERSIN 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 158.35
OIL 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 501.6
JPASSOCIAT 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 68.35
HINDPETRO 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 292.35
IVRCLINFRA 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 20.45
HDFC 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 780.4
GVKPIL 3/20/2013 VOLUME WATCH DAILY DQT 10 Day High 9.95



Don't see any great set up or price entry point for large cap stock.

 

[arvind61]

First I would like to request people who are accessing my information about giving feedback of their experiences. Kindly share your god/bad experience and also state what else you would like to see.

NIFTY has hit the last low fractal formed 2 day after budget day today and can go down 100 points in a jiffy. Reliance should lead as today it has hit the new low should it break 200 day DMA 206.

Some tech. and pharma companies have shown weakness and joined the downstream.

Short Hexaware 88-88.4 stop 90
short TechMahindra 1070-1078 stop 1095
short DRReddy 1790 -1800 stop 1812
short Exide 126-127 stop 130

Good luck ..:thumb:

 

[healthraj]

I am an Engineer by education from an institute of repute with 25 + years of experience in technology product development. Have significant years of work experience in Signal processing and pattern matching. I am No exponent of English language so kindly go easy on my literary skills - specially grammar and spellings.

Sometime in 2002-3 when IT bubble had busted ,I happened to read an article about how so many indicators were pointing to the impending bust but people ignored it. That got me interested in technical indicators. I researched a lot them and soon found out what you all already know. Some worked better in certain market condition while others worked better in other. There was no magic wand.

Always interested in algorithms, I coded several of them to notice inherent complexities of predicting price. From breakout/breakdown to Moving averages to Elliot wave to more recent open interest, volatility and so on. Those must have been simple times when Japanese rice traders made money by simply locating a 'Doji '. Now , so many of us got 'hammered' or 'dojified' to our 'grave-stone' if we followed candle stick signals carelessly.

Time frames seemed to be one very important aspect to me. As in the sea the bigger wave always manages to change the direction of smaller wave , in markets the bigger time frame event will interrupt the course of smaller time frame trend without any excuse. So daily traders should be wary of weekly events specially on Fridays and Thursdays. Similarly weekly crowed should look over the shoulder towards month end.

The other cardinal principal which seemed to hold true in all the time frames was the Dow theory of Higher Tops and Higher Bottoms or Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms these days.

So taking these two as the main principles and all other techniques as mere supporting tools I had embarked on building my system from scratch absolutely single handedly. Only input was the downloads from NSE data. Rest all thousands of lines of java code and database is my lone effort.

To cut the chase , let me quickly finish that over the last several years first part time and then almost full time for almost last 3-4 years I have managed to put to gather a Trading System of some sorts. Its work in progress in some areas but I guess it gives decent performance in daily time frames. I have had no access to any professional trading station to compare. I leave that to feedback from janta which will spur me to betterment.

Why am I not making money trading and writing all this stuff here , if it all seemed to be working all right and decent. Good question to ask. Well, to make money from market you need money first. After years of underpayment no payment and bad trades my resources have dwindled to critical level. I do trade sometime but that takes focus away from my work.

So my friends! I come to you to improve and hopefully some of you would make money and help me make some too. You can advise me on revenue model.

All the stocks of NSE are analyzed for various patterns. I would give some of them in next few days -

Usual disclosure applies - I am no certified investment/trading professional. Individual to seek professional advice before doing trades. These are for information only

:thumb:

Here are my Day 1 Trades -

Buying Price may not be near yesterday closing price. We may expect it to dip before it goes up again. Similarly A fall may happen after some rise.

Keep stop loss as mentioned , don't carry the trade to next day unless you are sure. I would cut my trades if I am less than 2 % in profit or in any loss at the end of the day. Trade in the direction of NIFTY whenever possible.


stock Buy range stop Loss

Reliance 841.1 - 844 831.9


Sell Stop Loss

aban 294.8 - 295.6 298
AXISBANK 1403- 1404 1428
DishTv 68-69 70

Thanks for the thread and your idea. Can you please explain your strategy with charts so that we would understand and give you the feedback.

 

[NANDAMAD]

Thanks for the thread and your idea. Can you please explain your strategy with charts so that we would understand and give you the feedback.

after many days healthraj, welcome back

 

[arvind61]

Thanks for your comments Raj.

Actually I don't physically see any chart. I have developed the software which does the analysis of what I want to see. Basically I consider daily and weekly data. I consider these as true intervals unlike hourly or x minute data . There would be vast difference the way last 30 minutes of the day behave to say lunch hour 30 minutes

As I have mentioned my basic foundation is Dow theory. I would consider for buying only stocks which have made higher bottom and for selling stocks which have made lower tops unless change though fundamental events manifesting through Price volume action. Then if you are on buy side I try avoid a major resistance close by such as daily or weekly top/bottom or major averages 20,50,200 etc. Same goes for sell side. Run various indicators MACD, VOLUME, FORCE, OSCILLATORS, ALLIGATOR etc. for confirmation .

If you would notice my recommended short time trades the entry would be very defensive to minimize Stop Loss. Sometimes I miss a very good trade because of that because right now I don't have resources to take multiple positions on fno side. Look at my recommended trades today Hexaware, DrReddy and EXide almost nailed the Top of the day for short and Techm missed by 2 Rs. Had I been bit liberal with money I would have bought say one contract of TechM at 1065 and say other above 1070. Hopefully I would be able to develop economic muscle for that.

 

[arvind61]

Most Trades my system reporting today are counter trend. Which as a general rule I avoid. Only one I am willing take a bit of risk is ONGC above 300 . Just for the day. With SL 294.5

 

[healthraj]

Thanks for your comments Raj.

Actually I don't physically see any chart. I have developed the software which does the analysis of what I want to see. Basically I consider daily and weekly data. I consider these as true intervals unlike hourly or x minute data . There would be vast difference the way last 30 minutes of the day behave to say lunch hour 30 minutes

As I have mentioned my basic foundation is Dow theory. I would consider for buying only stocks which have made higher bottom and for selling stocks which have made lower tops unless change though fundamental events manifesting through Price volume action. Then if you are on buy side I try avoid a major resistance close by such as daily or weekly top/bottom or major averages 20,50,200 etc. Same goes for sell side. Run various indicators MACD, VOLUME, FORCE, OSCILLATORS, ALLIGATOR etc. for confirmation .

If you would notice my recommended short time trades the entry would be very defensive to minimize Stop Loss. Sometimes I miss a very good trade because of that because right now I don't have resources to take multiple positions on fno side. Look at my recommended trades today Hexaware, DrReddy and EXide almost nailed the Top of the day for short and Techm missed by 2 Rs. Had I been bit liberal with money I would have bought say one contract of TechM at 1065 and say other above 1070. Hopefully I would be able to develop economic muscle for that.

Thanks. Still a chart would explain it more easily. I will try to digest your calls and see if I understand. Basically it seems to be a Defensive approach .... But what is confusing is normally people select a Trending stock by checking if it makes a

HIGHER HIGHs and a HIGHER LOW - UP TREND
LOWER HIGHS and LOWERE LOWS - DOWN TREND

What you are suggesting is BUY when HIGHER LOW - So this kind of Trades is for somebody interested to do Range Bound Trading.

 

[DSM]

Thanks Arvind. Though a frequent visitors to TJ, this is the first time I read your thread. It is interesting. You don't need to worry about your english. It is fine, and so is your insight into the market. Regards to feedback, unfortunately most members read, but don't comment, thus a good thread dies off due to lack of interest.

TJ should introduce a fine for people who visit the site, but don't post. BTW hope someone does not take this comment seriously.

As far as giving feed back here's my view :

When you recommend, please do not post 30 scripts your system has picked up as being bullish or bearish. Not only is this information overload, but for a person interested in your thread, there is no qualitative analysis to back the recommendation. Recommending anything over 3-4 trades is counterproductive.

What I suggest is that you should post 2 bullish and 2 bearish calls and post a short note on the rational of the call, with target and SL level. EOD, you could then analyse the trade vis a vis your recommendation.

Also, tracking perfomance basis above, one can see how good your strategy is and if it outperfoms the market over time.

Thanks for your thread. I look forward to reading more of your post/views - they seem well thought out and intelligent.

First I would like to request people who are accessing my information about giving feedback of their experiences. Kindly share your god/bad experience and also state what else you would like to see.

NIFTY has hit the last low fractal formed 2 day after budget day today and can go down 100 points in a jiffy. Reliance should lead as today it has hit the new low should it break 200 day DMA 206.

Some tech. and pharma companies have shown weakness and joined the downstream.

Short Hexaware 88-88.4 stop 90
short TechMahindra 1070-1078 stop 1095
short DRReddy 1790 -1800 stop 1812
short Exide 126-127 stop 130

Good luck ..:thumb:

 

[arvind61]

Thanks a lot DSM for your comments. You have made several valid points . I am travelling on Holi vacation. Shall post in detail from next week.

A very happy holi to everyone..

 

[arvind61]

Raj

I think I may not have been clear in conveying . But I recommend exactly as you mentioned. When I say 'Buy higher bottom' I meant the formation then is of higher top higher bottom. Similarly sell only when Lower tops are formed.

thanks