From My Trading system: 1-3 Day Trades

[arvind61]

NIFTY seems finding support at lower levels. I was thinking weekly closing would be above 5550 a 50 week DMA. Lets see what happens on Friday. Wall street is on tear so some of the rub off action here perhaps.

Its difficult to find trending up stock in our markets. Except in some tech and pharma. One needs to be very nimble here because our trend still points down.

Hexaware is trending up , given a breakout above double top zone of 93.50. If it dips a bit some time before noon to 94-94.50 level worth holding till day end with stop of 92.50 if NIFTY steady. Friday Infy results would be out so one needs to clear out before day end.

HCL tech has tested its 50 day dma today. Missed that trade today. It was a sure shot point to bounce. One needs to play in options in tech shares till infy results.

Range has been narrowing for UNIPHOS above 121.75 can give about 1-2 rupee very quickly. samw with downside breakdown below 118

Bajaja Auto has breakout breakdown points of 1728 and 1686 .

Looking at US markeys We might have a high first half and a low second half tomorrow

Good Luck..

 

[arvind61]

NIFTY closed just below it opened with a gap. It traced the gap whole day but could not extend the range much from opening . 5612 high of day also is 10 day DMA. Not a sign of great strength. INFY results tomorrow can breathe some life into it, so I pray on new year.

On Daily charts we have been falling since Feb 1. So now two and half months of decline. If some policy action from government , coupled with some factors such as cheap crude and cheaper gold can propel it quickly to beyond 5850 then we may join the rest of the markets. Actually Weekly chart does not look that bad if 5850 magically can be reclaimed in couple of weeks.

Most trend trades are short side. Watch NIFTY while taking these.


PTC has become sell on rise to 59.25 -60 stop 61
short renuka 24.1 -24.3 stop 24.7

short rpower 66-66.5 stop 67

Counter trend side M&M has shown a bullish Divergent Bar its risky.

ALLIGATOR showing positive direction or ESSAR OIL Buy around 79.5-80 stop 78.5

good luck

 

[arvind61]

INFY has pushed NIFTY below 50 week DMA. Last time we fell below 50 week DMA was on May 4, 2012 and came above it on June 15 , 2012 so took about 40 days to come above it. Hope this time its sooner. My hope is now on Gold and Crude. Gold has been traded below $1500 today and crude to is down . If this trend continues our economy gets some tail wind .

INFY fall was spectacular. Lot of gap traders might have lost out today. After opening with huge gap it fell another 300 Rs from opening. Its not advisable to take gap trade for us in India for stocks which are widely held by FII. As major selling in our market comes after Europe office hours.

As I had been telling earlier, as a short term trader we got to play session by session as they say in cricket. The shorting recommendation which I had given worked well in the morning but turned to opposite direction in afternoon. One has to quickly recognise if the tide is turning and come out with smaller profit or marginal loss.

Most of the end of day data set up will work well for morning trade. If the direction continues then maintain position with tighter trailing stop else book out and best to look other trade .

Shall run the system over the weekend and report any interesting findings

Happy weekend..

 

[arvind61]

Nifty at 5529 is placed midway between Psychological support of 5500 and 50 week DMA 5550. In addition 10 Day DMA of 5597 and high of the last week 5612 would be important markers. so In absence of clear cut clues the range should be from 5480 - 5610 for the week. But I guess there would be some spillover from crash in gold and thaw in oil to equity so I am looking with positive bias.

INFY might have been overdone already. It no longer has the sheen and leadership status of yesteryears. Its not given that other IT companies would fair badly but IT would remain uncertain space.

For tomorrow -

counter trend trades with strict stops

buy DLF at 244.5-247 with stop of 241.5
buy ktkbank 132.5 - 134 stop 130
buy IndianHotel 55-55.6 stop 54

coal India would be sell on rise 304.5-307 with stop of 310

Divislab Range has been narrowing and there is an inside day as well. seem ready for breakout ..upside I guess. 1060 could be seen here.

HDFC has a double inside day ..I would try buy lower range and sell upper range in the morning and goto the direction of breakout in the afternoon

I would watch JPASSOCIAT with interest. Its operator move it quickly. If it trades above 72 then it can quickly go to 75. But Finally after a day or 2 I dont think it would be able to sustain its 50 day DMA of about 71.5.

Trade small quantity when unsure- Plan exit strategy before.

good luck

 

[arvind61]

Exciting things are happening on Gold side. I believe it will get much lower than $1300 people are expecting support. It may not have to wait till year end for that , in fact we may see that in May itself. It always overshoots up or down.

JP did exactly what I thought. Missed 75 by 20 paisse. But only regret is that I did not put enough money on it.

Wall street is down over 1 % . Would Tech shares take beating tomorrow? Lot of people are sitting on lot of profit in HCLTech. There may be rush to lock in profits forcing it back to 740 and lower . I don't know how will it open but there should be shorting opportunity on some rise tomorrow.


ZEEL showing signs of tiring short between 208-210 with stop 212

Reliance showing big white candle just below 20 Day DMA. Is some news coming up??

RPower is showing some strength If stays above 65 for some time tomorrow worth buying with about 1 % stop loss

Sunpharma has posted an inside day with shrinking ranges. Trend is up but it seems smart money is on sell side.

Bharat Forge makes double inside day. Seem like a gravestone doji there. On lower side break of 211 should fetch couple of buck pretty quick.

good luck...

 

[arvind61]

Nifty has celebrated the fall in gold and crude. Just cruised through DMA 20 and DMA 200 .Gold contributes a lot to current account deficit and so does crude. Lets see what happens tomorrow. Hopefully we may be around 5750 or there abut. Banks should lead the charge. I have doubts about Autos.

Most of the stocks have crossed or are at the upper end of channel from lower bottom. So technically we should let them make a higher bottom first before we look to buy them. Some of them might run away ...but when in doubt stay out.

I would look at hexaware has made a double inside day at around DMA 20. Tomorrow may make decisive breakout /break down move from the range.

IDBI has broken out of range and crossed DMA from double bottom so buy 83-84 with stop of 82.

ICICI and SBI both closed at 50 day DMA if they continue trade positively sbi looks good for 2250.

Be watchful of several stocks bouncing down from their local tops tomorrow when some profit booking would start and bad politics fuels scepticism.

 

[arvind61]

NIFTY faltered after a decent opening. Some profit booking and pause was expected. Today wall street looks to be set for big down day. There might be some more fall in NIFTY tomorrow. But Good things is gold and crude seem to be heading down as long as they keep going down there would be a cap to our downside.

For tomorrow it would be best to seek shorting opportunities if they present themselves.

Short HDFC either on break of 785 or around 800 with 1 % stop loss
short UNITECH around 28 with stop of 28.5
short JPINFRATECH around 38.5 with stop 39.5
short NMDC 129-129.5 stop 130.5

No Inside bars and shrinking range bars worth mentioning except in highly illiquid asian paint

good luck..

 

[arvind61]

@Rohansp

Wonder why you want me to buy your tips? ?????????

 

[arvind61]

NIFTY made short work of weakness in Wall street and dull close yesterday. In hindsight yesterday was just a breather. Today it effortlessly crossed the near top and closed just above 50 Day DMA. Lets hope prices in crude and gold remain low otherwise me may be in another downward spiral of roller coaster. So we should watch prices of Crude, gold and Rupee - Dollar equation for continued cheer.

Most of the big stocks have placed a higher top . Now we need a higher bottom next to really be long with confidence. Some of the stock we may have wished to go long might gone too bit further away but structural comfort would come only if a higher bottom has been placed.

I have been researching to finalize a method to increase the counter trend trade probability. But its getting into too much muddy water. Exploring possibilities like Market width Vs Sectoral width. Increase in delivery volume percentages before surge, premium increase in out of money options. Trying to find a method which gives above 65-70 % chance of success other than usual oscillators, candle stars and engulfing and three day reversal signals.

One thing I have noted is there is some kind of sectoral pattern to these moves. Banks lead the charge. High beta would follow and make big moves . By the time we move to power and Infra and mettles momentum is dead and we retreat. Hope things are different this time.

Shall come out with weekend analysis on Sunday.

 

[timepass]

One thing I have noted is there is some kind of sectoral pattern to these moves. Banks lead the charge. High beta would follow and make big moves . By the time we move to power and Infra and mettles momentum is dead and we retreat. Hope things are different this time.

...and pharma leads the rear.