Experts, Pls help..!!

rh6996

Well-Known Member
#11
Hi, Going through the Excel file and time of trades, it seems you are using 4 Minut chart! Please confirm. If it is 4 min. chart, maybe it would do you good to trade the same system on higher time frame! The analysis we do in excel based on charts cannot be replicated in real trades. Its very difficult to ascertain the actual slippage which can range from 2/3 points to 5+ points ! So with so large number of Positional trades the slippage can be a substantial amount!
My personal opinion : 4 minutes TF is too small for Positional trades, okay for Intraday.
Very frankly, its confusing, what are you seeking : A pat on your back for devising such a beautiful system or its something else !
As was mentioned in reply to your 2013 Posts that you are seeking comment on your "results" rather than on the system as no details about the system are mentioned here!
I am too novice a trader to guide you, but as a day trader this is my view.
 

jallanankit

Well-Known Member
#12
Hi Ankit, Just one simple advise : Stop analysing further !!! Start trading if not already done.
You dont need anyone's views ! I am sure you are comfortable with the system, so simply stop wasting time in paper trades etc and start trading with real money !

I have DLed your analyis, have not gone through the details but the figures put up by you are enough for me to say what I did just now.
Its been a gap of 1 year between your last post and current post. I am quiet sure its high time now!
All the best from my side. To my best ability, which is quiet limited, I am ready to help you if required but you need to be specific in your query. Though I think its not required.
Do understand, my views would be mine and coloured in a hue as per my trading style, my mind set etc. etc...... and this I believe is true for anyone who gives you an advise on this. One needs to trade as per his/her own style and mental make up !

So, all the best once again ! :thumb:
Looking forward to your Profit figures on 1st Jan 2015 for 1st Sep to 31st Dec trades.
Thank u for ur views..!!!
Honestly acknowledge..
 

jallanankit

Well-Known Member
#13
Hi, Going through the Excel file and time of trades, it seems you are using 4 Minut chart! Please confirm. If it is 4 min. chart, maybe it would do you good to trade the same system on higher time frame! The analysis we do in excel based on charts cannot be replicated in real trades. Its very difficult to ascertain the actual slippage which can range from 2/3 points to 5+ points ! So with so large number of Positional trades the slippage can be a substantial amount!
My personal opinion : 4 minutes TF is too small for Positional trades, okay for Intraday.
Very frankly, its confusing, what are you seeking : A pat on your back for devising such a beautiful system or its something else !
As was mentioned in reply to your 2013 Posts that you are seeking comment on your "results" rather than on the system as no details about the system are mentioned here!
I am too novice a trader to guide you, but as a day trader this is my view.


It is not a 4 min chart.. but a 5 min chart.. The timestamps u might have seen in Excel file have may shown u times such as 09:19 or 10:24 etc.. BUt thats because, starting with 9:15 in Amibroker DB settings, the first 5 min candle ends on 09:19 and from there on keep adding 5 min to the 1st candle.. u will find 09:24 , 09:29 and so on.. So that timestamp for the trades..

Regarding a 5 min tf as insufficient for positional trade, I will refrain from commenting as this is a debattable topic.. I will just end my words here with one sentence.. The backtest report proves the usability of 5 min chart for positional trading.. Regarding higher tf usage, the system is best suited for 5 min tf.. See this is a report for RELINFRA.. 5 point slippage is not considered here as it will almost mean a 3/4th percentage of the stock value..
 

jallanankit

Well-Known Member
#14
Adding more.. On wat am I seeking.. on rh's views..

I am seeking ur inputs on wat a successful profitable system should have.. Ofcourse I am not mentioning the system logics here.. But wat I am mentioning is system reports.. The reports are wat the logics do.. the end products.. No pat on back is required till the time I miss any important ingredient..
I just want to take benefit from the seniors and experts in this field of their experience.. I want to know that if I put money on such a system, will I surely turn successful and make money if I stick to system rules.. I can imbibe discipline on me but not on markets.. So is this sufficient stuff on which I can reply on.. Or do i need more work to do.. If yes, on what parameters.. ?? This is the main query..

Having said so, I will make another point for all this turmoil.. I dont have deep pockets to invest.. and whenever I do so, I want to be very sure with it.. All that I want to do is to MAKE money, not ready for loosing.. and I am ready for the hardwork which I have already been doing..
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#15
Adding more.. On wat am I seeking.. on rh's views..

I am seeking ur inputs on wat a successful profitable system should have.. Ofcourse I am not mentioning the system logics here.. But wat I am mentioning is system reports.. The reports are wat the logics do.. the end products.. No pat on back is required till the time I miss any important ingredient..
I just want to take benefit from the seniors and experts in this field of their experience.. I want to know that if I put money on such a system, will I surely turn successful and make money if I stick to system rules.. I can imbibe discipline on me but not on markets.. So is this sufficient stuff on which I can reply on.. Or do i need more work to do.. If yes, on what parameters.. ?? This is the main query..

Having said so, I will make another point for all this turmoil.. I dont have deep pockets to invest.. and whenever I do so, I want to be very sure with it.. All that I want to do is to MAKE money, not ready for loosing.. and I am ready for the hardwork which I have already been doing..
"Over analysis leads to paralysis!" You need to get out of passive mode and enter active mode! Start trading Ankit.
Trust me when I say that the most important ingredient of a profitable Trading System is the "TRADER" himself/herself !
You have worked hard on your system and finalised it, good ! Now start working on yourself. When you do Real Trading you will understand the level of discipline you have and the level that is required in trading your system. Your greed and fear threshold ! In short you will understand "yourself" much better when you do actual Trading and not paper trading. And dont be surprised if you suddenly realise you are not the same person you look at in the mirror ! :p :D
Now write down in unambiguous words Rules of your trading ! Write in detail for both Long as well as Short trades. Better if its in form of a check list.
Keep this Rule sheet handy while trading !
This may differ with your mental make up but I use it : Stop trading when a pre set Profit target is met ! Profit target can be a daily one, weekly one or Monthly one. For positional trades I would prefer a Monthly Target !
 
#16
One can never be sure that the system which performed well in past will definately perform well in future too. This is because markets change and market characteristics over a test period may undergo change in future period. But if one starts trading and depending on the situation one can modify the system. Real trading is much different than the backtesting.

If the system has done well in last 5 years, it is reasonable to assume that it will hold good for next 1-2 years atleast till the markets change.

But trading needs good capitalisation and willingness to risk the money on real trades. Till that is done, all excercise remains theoratical and it is difficult to profit from a system however good it may be.

So dont expect definite profitabilty..start trading and be willing to change as and when needed.

Best wishes for profitable trading...

Smart_trade
 

mastermind007

Well-Known Member
#17
I have made a real time system for trading in Indian markets. I am attaching a report along with this for a particular scrip. The system has made good profits in the given period. Period of test (Jan 2012 to Aug 2013) The system has generated a profit of Rs. 11,40,000/- on an investment of Rs. 1,50,000/- in the last 20 months. The profits in the current month (Sep 2013) are decent enough. I have attached an excel file to this mail showing all the trades from Jan 2012 to Aug 2013.

The maximum profit in one trade has been Rs. 69000/-
The maximum loss in one trade being 26000/-
Total No. of trades 607
Considering 1p as brokerage on one leg, total expenses for the trades will amount to almost Rs. 1 lakh in 20 month period including all other statutory levies.
Net profits are more than 10 lakhs for an investment of Rs. 1.5 lakh
Average profit per month = Rs. 50,000/- (net of expenses)
Another important thing I find is consistency of profits. In the test period of 20 months, the system has lost once on a month on month basis while 19 months were profitable months.

All figures can be found in the excel file for reference.
Please have a look at the reports and express your views.

This request comes with an idea that all seniors will comment as to what goods and bads they see in the system.. The system is a purely SAR based..
The amount shown in backtest report as Invested Capital is 10 lakhs, whereas the amount required to invest is Rs.150000, considering the max draw down and margin of 1 lot.. (The system failed to return results when initial capital put to Rs. 150000/-, may be some configuration error from my end, so pls ignore that)

Regards:thumb::thumb:

Link for file..!!
http://www.************/office/oVhjZjBI/Report_Jan_2012_to_Aug_13.html
Point 1)
Before you lift the anchors and set of into the wild sea with real money, just make sure to check that your AFL is not referencing future quotes.

Point 2)
Did you optimize the SAR Parameter.

Point 3)
If you think you have a winning horse and have enough confidence on your ability to conduct research, do not dwell too much on opinion of others or in the end of it, you will have a catalog listing 1001 different ways in which your "winning horse" appears to be limping.
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#18
Point 1)
Before you lift the anchors and set of into the wild sea with real money, just make sure to check that your AFL is not referencing future quotes.

Point 2)
Did you optimize the SAR Parameter.

Point 3)
If you think you have a winning horse and have enough confidence on your ability to conduct research, do not dwell too much on opinion of others or in the end of it, you will have a catalog listing 1001 different ways in which your "winning horse" appears to be limping.
So very well put ! :D
Totally agree.
 

jallanankit

Well-Known Member
#20
Thank you all so much for ur views.. As Rkkarnani has asked me to start trading, I have one more thing to ask u.. If I can sell this system to some mutual fund , hedge fund or some big corporate dealing with this, would this not fetch me some good amount.. My next query is if I happen to place a quote to some HNI or such big corporate body, what rate can i quote..

Is this calculation not correct..

For example..
The software has a back test report for 5 stocks with equally good profits CONSISTENTLY for the last 3 years..
Say an investment of 1 lakh rs per month will generate 30k per month on an average on stocks...
Now, if there are 5 stocks.. say like RELINFRA, RELCAP, PNB, BOB, YesBank.. we can say an investment cap of like 1 cr in each of the stock.. i say 1 cr as investment cap..bcoz considering the current liquidity such stock has..if the amount greater than 1 cr is invested, the slippage will be a lot more and may affect trading patterns..

So considering 30k as revenues per month which equals to 90% in 3 months and considering all expenses and taxes as 100% in 4 months.. with an investment of 1cr*5 stocks..

so 5cr will double in 4 months..

so now my quote can be 5cr* 3 such periods.. meaning 1 year profits.. so is 15cr a the quote correct..

Now, adding to this.. The performance of the same system is very good in Nifty and Banknifty and the investment cap is also not to be accounted here and for sure it is not 1cr..because NF and BNF has huge volumes.. I am not taking that in my quote calculation...

Added this, is the 15cr quote yet not justified.
 

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