Experts, Pls help..!!

jallanankit

Well-Known Member
#1
I have made a real time system for trading in Indian markets. I am attaching a report along with this for a particular scrip. The system has made good profits in the given period. Period of test (Jan 2012 to Aug 2013) The system has generated a profit of Rs. 11,40,000/- on an investment of Rs. 1,50,000/- in the last 20 months. The profits in the current month (Sep 2013) are decent enough. I have attached an excel file to this mail showing all the trades from Jan 2012 to Aug 2013.

The maximum profit in one trade has been Rs. 69000/-
The maximum loss in one trade being 26000/-
Total No. of trades 607
Considering 1p as brokerage on one leg, total expenses for the trades will amount to almost Rs. 1 lakh in 20 month period including all other statutory levies.
Net profits are more than 10 lakhs for an investment of Rs. 1.5 lakh
Average profit per month = Rs. 50,000/- (net of expenses)
Another important thing I find is consistency of profits. In the test period of 20 months, the system has lost once on a month on month basis while 19 months were profitable months.

All figures can be found in the excel file for reference.
Please have a look at the reports and express your views.

This request comes with an idea that all seniors will comment as to what goods and bads they see in the system.. The system is a purely SAR based..
The amount shown in backtest report as Invested Capital is 10 lakhs, whereas the amount required to invest is Rs.150000, considering the max draw down and margin of 1 lot.. (The system failed to return results when initial capital put to Rs. 150000/-, may be some configuration error from my end, so pls ignore that)

Regards:thumb::thumb:

Link for file..!!
http://www.4shared.com/office/oVhjZjBI/Report_Jan_2012_to_Aug_13.html
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#2
How did you handle the "rollover" from month to month?
If we are long in Relinfra, the rollover is usually at higher price and similarly the same is advantageous when we are short while rolling over. Maybe the same gets balanced out in 20 minths, but a valid point we should keep in mind.
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#4
Very true..!!
One solution from my side.!!
On day of expiry we can trade as per calls +- premium and that too in next month contracts..!!

Well.. Thanks Rkk for this observation..!!
Your other views on the system??
How to trade the rollover is not an issue, what I meant to point out was that our Figures shall be different if we incorporate the rollover. Frankly, I dont think that would matter much. It came to mind hence pointed it out.

And on System? Well , you mean to ask views on the "results"? not the system as nothing is mentioned about the system, not even the Time Frame.

The back test results show that returns are good! There are hiccups in between due to continued 4/5/6 loosing trades.... what was the max adverse move we have after entry before reversal and we are also not aware how far is the SL at the time of entry to understand the comfort level of trading it.
So can say end results are good.
 

jallanankit

Well-Known Member
#5
How to trade the rollover is not an issue, what I meant to point out was that our Figures shall be different if we incorporate the rollover. Frankly, I dont think that would matter much. It came to mind hence pointed it out.

And on System? Well , you mean to ask views on the "results"? not the system as nothing is mentioned about the system, not even the Time Frame.

The back test results show that returns are good! There are hiccups in between due to continued 4/5/6 loosing trades.... what was the max adverse move we have after entry before reversal and we are also not aware how far is the SL at the time of entry to understand the comfort level of trading it.
So can say end results are good.
Ok.. System is based on 12 min tf.!!
Purely SAR
Positional
Max Losses consecutively 8
Max Drawdown 61000
43% winning trades
An Average of 30 trades a month

Since a SAR system, so no SL and no TGT..!!
 

gkpc

Well-Known Member
#6
I am no expert, but just writing my view.You hv not mentioned the name, but as named by rkk, if it is relinfra, then I find that in 15 min. TF , results of Positional trades are better by applying Supertrend. I have just eyeballed the period and have not actually calculate the results.
Your final results are excellent. For positional trades, the average trade of almost 1.5 trades per day is way too high. I feel , with so large number of trades, why not trade it intraday... the returns may be less (maybe higher, I dont know) but would be comfortable to trade and maybe qty can be increased after every quarter or after attaining a certain profit. Just the view of a layman.
 

jallanankit

Well-Known Member
#8
Drawing attention rkkarnani!! Pls look in..

Having ur views on a SL in trade be a deep one but yes.. one for sure.. I have further developed my system and once again backtested my results.. The system is no more a Stop and Reverse.. It identifies the trend and take positions.. Long or Short.. System shows a Trailing SL as soon as a position is entered.. along with possible 3 targets.. However, I have not considered targets and SL in backtesting.. They are as per Actual exits..

For example, if a TSL is hit, the system wont book loss at the pre set SL level.. It will however exit the trade in that particular candle.. But the price for exit will be the Close price of that particular candle.. May be higher or lower than the SL price.. Here the time frame has also changed.. Earlier system was based on a 12 min chart and now its a 5 min chart.. Despite this, I have managed to keep a marginal increase in the total number of trades and that is not a concern for me..

Another aspect of the new system.. Since it is no more a Stop and Reverse system, it is therefore, not necessary that it will always give alternate BUY and SHORT entries. The system may continue with BUY calls repeatedly.. and similarly Short calls repeatedly if it finds a swing.. And because it also exits a trade either because of TSL or profit booking, there are a lot of instances where it is also in a NO TRADE ZONE..

Have also programmed a IntraDAY entry exit parameter bcoz of which positions need not be carried over and backtest can calculate intraday gains over periods.. However, the profits there are less as compared to positional trading and number of calls increases further..

Another thing worth mentioning. The system considers the strength of signals as well.. It asks to enter in half quantity normally traded and also alerts for trading in full Qty.. Assuming 2 lots of RELINFRA are traded..500 qty as current lot size.. so the backtest report attached in next post shows profits as entered in 500 and 1000 qty at times.. However, my idea is to fix a quantity and trade all calls in same Qty.. I have manually calculated the profit on 1000 fixed quantity in the same sheet for reference!!
The backtest report is using a subtotal function of MS Excel.. The consistency is further addressed there on MONTHLY profit as a parameter.. One month of loss in DEC 2012 shows the massive strength as per my understanding..

Waiting to listen from all seniors here as what more can be done to make a system SURELY profitable..

Especially for Mr. RKK.. and commonly for all..
Asking Mr. RKK personally because, I have found him replying to me everytime I have had a query.. Sir, pls be elaborate on all topics u comment.. Looking forward to hear from u..

Looking for advice from all others as this thread title signifies..!!
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#10
Hi Ankit, Just one simple advise : Stop analysing further !!! Start trading if not already done.
You dont need anyone's views ! I am sure you are comfortable with the system, so simply stop wasting time in paper trades etc and start trading with real money !

I have DLed your analyis, have not gone through the details but the figures put up by you are enough for me to say what I did just now.
Its been a gap of 1 year between your last post and current post. I am quiet sure its high time now!
All the best from my side. To my best ability, which is quiet limited, I am ready to help you if required but you need to be specific in your query. Though I think its not required.
Do understand, my views would be mine and coloured in a hue as per my trading style, my mind set etc. etc...... and this I believe is true for anyone who gives you an advise on this. One needs to trade as per his/her own style and mental make up !

So, all the best once again ! :thumb:
Looking forward to your Profit figures on 1st Jan 2015 for 1st Sep to 31st Dec trades.
 

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