Expect the moon...!

#1
Technical Analysis is a great way to dream of the day when we can pluck money from the market at will and live life kingsize in a a fool's paradise.

Its like the donkey running after the carrot dangling on a stick in front of him. As long as he can see the carrot, success is always just a few steps away,he never looses hope and no matter how hard he tries, success is never his.

Occasional victory is a good morale booster and it Keeps the hope/dream/expectation alive. Most of the time, its thanks to dumb luck that the trader mistakes as his genius methodology (aka holy grail). It takes about 3 years for the trader to realise that there is something drastically wrong with the picture. No matter what TA we use, end result is always the same. A series of mixed results and a few big loosers that wipe out all the gain. End of the month result is always negative.

How to change this picture. is TA really that worthless/useful as it seems. Is TA just a smart way to loose money with more confidence ?
 

Mr.G

Well-Known Member
#2
Wish people would understand this. Only true way to make money is in the long term and to trade on news.
 
#3
Market is a future discounting mechanism. We buy an instrument with the hope of selling it higher. We sell an instrument with the hope of buying it back at a cheaper price. TA helps us to form a view on the future projection of price of that instrument, come to a decision on what price to act, which direction to trade, how to set a stoploss and target.

Most traders spend 80% of their time and energy fixating on developing a strategy to get the right direction, entry, exit and stoploss. Sadly no matter what TA we use to come to these decision points, trade management remains weak. We fails to ride the winners and cling on to the loosers and ride them to our stoploss with amazing discipline.

The moment we get irritated with the amount of stoploss hits and decide to be brave and trade without stoplosses, we see an improvement on overall results. Hope rises and then sooner or later, we meet the devil trade that wipe all the profit and takes a big chunk of the capital as punishment for not respecting the stoploss.
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#4
Nokil, great post. What you said is true...

The devastation that a trader undergoes is on account of two things - pain of loss and pain of being wrong. When the pain is severe enough, and the trader wants to be still in the game, he comes to a realization, that that something needs to change, and it is himself.

It is not that TA is wrong. Self-introspection, and post trade analysis along with TA skills can help a trader transform himself to a winner. Questions to ask, besides strategy :

1. Are you adequately capitalized.?
2. Is your position size right for your capital? (Avoid leverage in the beginning)
3. Are you trading with the trend.?
4. Are you trading non-volatile stocks? (To avoid unless a part of strategy)
5. Are you confident of your strategy? (If not, what needs to change?)
6. Do you get out when your loss is small?
7. Do you trail SL? (Ensure you don't give your winning back to the market)
8. Does your trade/strategy have positive expectancy?
9. Do you do sufficient homework each day to prepare for the next?
10. Do you follow a written set of rules? (How may exceptions and why?)
11. Are your trades influenced by others.? (Avoid gurus and experts)
12. Are you open to ideas and learning new concepts?
13. Do you keep a record and analyze your trades everyday?
14. Post exit, do you track to check if your exit was at optimal level?
15. Are you stressed while trading? (If so, why, and how can you change)
16. What in terms of physical, mental & emotional levels do you do to add/develop/grow as a trader to obtain an edge?

Most traders emphasize the strategy aspect. However a well developed mindset is just as much, if not more important.

Technical Analysis is a great way to dream of the day when we can pluck money from the market at will and live life kingsize in a a fool's paradise.

Its like the donkey running after the carrot dangling on a stick in front of him. As long as he can see the carrot, success is always just a few steps away,he never looses hope and no matter how hard he tries, success is never his.

Occasional victory is a good morale booster and it Keeps the hope/dream/expectation alive. Most of the time, its thanks to dumb luck that the trader mistakes as his genius methodology (aka holy grail). It takes about 3 years for the trader to realise that there is something drastically wrong with the picture. No matter what TA we use, end result is always the same. A series of mixed results and a few big loosers that wipe out all the gain. End of the month result is always negative.

How to change this picture. is TA really that worthless/useful as it seems. Is TA just a smart way to loose money with more confidence ?
 

jagankris

Well-Known Member
#5
Technical Analysis is a great way to dream of the day when we can pluck money from the market at will and live life kingsize in a a fool's paradise.

Its like the donkey running after the carrot dangling on a stick in front of him. As long as he can see the carrot, success is always just a few steps away,he never looses hope and no matter how hard he tries, success is never his.

Occasional victory is a good morale booster and it Keeps the hope/dream/expectation alive. Most of the time, its thanks to dumb luck that the trader mistakes as his genius methodology (aka holy grail). It takes about 3 years for the trader to realise that there is something drastically wrong with the picture. No matter what TA we use, end result is always the same. A series of mixed results and a few big loosers that wipe out all the gain. End of the month result is always negative.

How to change this picture. is TA really that worthless/useful as it seems. Is TA just a smart way to loose money with more confidence ?
If TA is 100% perfect then every body would be easily making money.
TA is a probability and cannot be over looked because it is based on TA market participants take positions.

Market has one objective and that is to ensure that no strategy is fool proof.
If at all any new inventions comes near to holy grail markets will soon fill the gaps to fail that.

A few big loosers - actually it should be series of small losses and few big winners should wipe out all losses and leave us in profit.
This is the most difficult part to understand and psychologically tough to practice.

Each trend is new and markets leaves foot prints of the trend.
Psychology and Risk Management are the key for success.
 

ganeshams

Well-Known Member
#6
we are seeing so many post yesterday and today afte the big fall in our market
whoever lost heavily with out following proper rules venting out their frustration and other side of people talking of doubling the money in 10 or 1 trades so it’s up to the reader to properly dissect it
So may be all we can do one thing to make this place meaning ful is share your experince of trading on these kind of falls occur and then seek suggestions from others to mend ourselves
 

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