Elliott Wave based outlook for the NIFTY



From www.elliottwaveanalyst.com -

Short term Outlook (06/02/2006) -

It was suspected that a short term correction might complete on Friday. It is now being suspected that it either completed in the closing stages on Friday or will do so right in the opening session on Monday. Post this, there should be a rally lasting days. 2912 is a critical level which should not get violated for this view to hold.
welldone vkb the correction did end as you expected and this was my view
also in my thread. Your count is similar to my count but with different
style of labeling which is quite exceptable,because it do not impact the
outlook. keep posting


Frankly GlobalGyan, this big a rally was not expected :) I have my doubts as to whether the bigger rally has resumed and so advise extreme caution for tomorrow!

Also, thanks for your comment and encouraging words joy_verma. Did like your style of counting as well. Plan to go over it in much more detail !


From www.elliottwaveanalyst.com -

Short term Outlook (07/02/2006)

What a rally! While a rally was indeed expected, it is fair to say that such a big rally was not. There was enough time in the morning trades to go long as mentioned yesterday which should have yielded excellent results. The price action has brought us to crossroads. There are interesting possibilites as mentioned in more detail below. But it seems worthwhile to sit back and enjoy the profits of the last few trading sessions and let the market show some light on the way!


Well-Known Member
The intersting part from the same Analyst.

"There are conflicting signals. The strong daily close indicates a strong rally in the initial part of the day. But the shape formed resembles a "Parabola" or a rounded top, which is a potentially devastating structure leading to sharp and swift reversals. Hence both the scenarios mentioned above are well and truly open.
Having said all that, it appears more comforting to be short rather than long at this juncture."

small tips on elliot wave
1. among three waves 1,3,5 ( waves for bulls) any two waves will be in eqality or atleast in 0.618 relationship.
2. wave 3 will never be the shortest among the three waves.
3. when ever wave 2 corrects the wave 1 deeply i.e. upto 61.8% wave 4 will be most likely a side ways correction.

so friends small tips on impulse and retracing waves.

kindly read the book by frost and prechter very easy to understand book
another suggestion do not interpret the elliot wave for very short term intra day trades using 10 min or 5 min charts i have burnt my fingers already


Thanks for your words chennamsetty.

I accept your suggestion with a slight modification. Elliott waves are very much applicable even to short term and intraday charts, even minute charts for that matter, generally speaking. But what I am not sure is its applicability in its entirety to Indian markets.

Elliott waves assumes a certain kind of mass psychology where individual players are not important. But in the Indian markets, the FIIs are relatively very big players. Hence there are only few people with relatively high volumes which is not the ideal scenario to be in. Because of this, there can be violations of rules in the intraday charts like you mention, and one should allow for subtle breakages of rules when dealing with say a 10 minute chart.


From www.elliottwaveanalyst.com -

Short term Outlook (09/02/2006)

Day before yesterday it was suggested to keep out of the markets. Yesterday too, this sentiment was reflected but was suggested to be "extremely careful with longs". The choppiness and range bound movement over the last two days has justified this "recommendation". There is still not much light on the happenings. What we have though are the formation of key levels and a narrowing down to only three scenarios as detailed below. It is prudent to stay out for another day, but if one HAS to take a position, better short than long. Whichever way, stop losses are extremely important, since we seem to be in the region where fast moves can occur either way.

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