Do you have a market for me to forecast?

[4xpipcounter]

As a matter of fact, I live only 56 miles (90 km) from a huge city called Columbus.

Though talks of Nifty ,he is not from India.

 

[Romeo and Elliott]

Hi, 4xpipcounter,

Thanks for taking time out for the posts and threads, am sure it takes a slice of your time.
Reading your posts is always a learning experience, im not so much referring to ichi moku, am tied gagged and bound for time developing my own chart reading algorithm, no indicators, just the way my eyes would, it tries to read charts, S/R levels, its basically a combination of candlesticks and Elliotts, with about a billion hours of observations on a zillion moves that make psycho-logical sense.

But with all the algorithms and observations one can only go so far.. or not. I laud your trust in your system and rules. I believe there no president for the kind of thing you do, mustve made it so much harder at the initial stages.

Thanks again.

 

[PGDIMES]

I've got one motto that is in granite, "The route is not as important as the final destination."
I have no set criteria based on a % of risk. I also do not subscribe to risk/reward ratios. I might enter a trade with a 50-pip target, and a 150-pips loss. It might be 3 times the risk, but the probability of success, in that case, might be 95%. It's worth it.
I know I sounded vague in answering your question, but there are no absolutes in money management, but only what is absolute for the individual.
BTW, the reason I love to forecast the markets I don't trade is because it further substantiates my methodology to me.

Dear 4xpipcounter,

Your motto in granite is the same for most of the traders following charts.

Your penchant for predicting the market, comes from the idea that your tools are best suited to forecast any market any time... Moreover it also helps you to hone your skills and keeps you sharp... :thumb:

But the one point highlighted by me needs further explanation and this time it will be much appreciated if explained in the mathematical language rather than some vague english words which in any case sounds foreign to me...

 

[4xpipcounter]

R&E, the points you made was exactly how I started trading. I found my indicators that were suited to me, and then as I would find some respected traders to follow, I would see if I could see the same thing through their system. As time progressed, I kept my ears and eyes open for new ideas. This is really how my whole trading system came to be was by incorporating ideas, and make them fit for my personality and trading style.
The learning never ceases. I still need constant exposure to other traders, so I understand their good points, and their bad points. I need to keep learning what to do and what to avoid. It it very necessary for me to stay sharp. I spend about 2 hours a weeks making trading decisions, and about 45 hours per week studying the markets. Yes, this is a "slice of my time", but is needed for me. I need to stay sharp, which means readers will read my forecasts, which continues to challenge me.
Many have thanked me for what I do. Well, I want to thank everyone for being there. Everyone following my posts here or on my blog have helped me greatly, because I feel challenged to do better.
You mentioned my trust in my system. It's a new twist now. I used to follow other respected traders to see if I agree with them. Now, I want to know if they agree with me--lol.
BTW, keep this in mind. In the middle of all the "zillion moves", remember it all boils down to one thing. The markets can only move up or move down. Your object is to know which one of those 2 ways, jump in for the ride and cash in the ticks or pips. Also, if you know the position is going to go one way, but it happens to move against you for awhile, just remember it is not journey that counts, but the final destination.

Hi, 4xpipcounter,

Thanks for taking time out for the posts and threads, am sure it takes a slice of your time.
Reading your posts is always a learning experience, im not so much referring to ichi moku, am tied gagged and bound for time developing my own chart reading algorithm, no indicators, just the way my eyes would, it tries to read charts, S/R levels, its basically a combination of candlesticks and Elliotts, with about a billion hours of observations on a zillion moves that make psycho-logical sense.

But with all the algorithms and observations one can only go so far.. or not. I laud your trust in your system and rules. I believe there no president for the kind of thing you do, mustve made it so much harder at the initial stages.

Thanks again.

 

[4xpipcounter]

PGD, I am happy to do that. Sometimes the vagueness suffices and then there are other times you just have to get down to the mathematical core of it.
I will use my example, as I do not measure any trade I enter based on the stereotypical risk/reward ratios. but I give it a confidence rating based of success based on my observations:
Based on the 95% example, that would mean a 19 out of 20 success rate, so let's take 20 trades, and 19 of them win based on a 50-pip target, and a 150-pip stop loss. I will have one trade that loses 150 pips, and 19 that win 50 pips: 19*50=950 pips, 1*150=150 pips; for a net gain 0f 950-150= 800.

This is not to be confused with any claim I am making that 95 of my trades are winning, or that my trades are based on a 1:3 success ratio. Both would be false statements. This is also based on a personal confidence interval that I assign the trade through my personal observations and experiences.
Also when the trade is initially set up based on, this case, 33% stop--TP and 95% CI and 40-pip net gain per trade, it is rare that it will hit my stop, because if I know beforehand I blew it, the trade is getting taken out manually before it is a chance to further mess my day up ((Little pun.). When I know the momentum is right, and the trade is going right, I might also lift the TP and set it for the next S or R.

One case in point concerning my "motto in granite", and this is the reason I mentioned. Some traders don't like the route the trade is taking, so they take the trade out before it gets to the destination. I guess there was more of a subliminal message I was trying to get across there.

Dear 4xpipcounter,

Your motto in granite is the same for most of the traders following charts.

Your penchant for predicting the market, comes from the idea that your tools are best suited to forecast any market any time... Moreover it also helps you to hone your skills and keeps you sharp... :thumb:

But the one point highlighted by me needs further explanation and this time it will be much appreciated if explained in the mathematical language rather than some vague english words which in any case sounds foreign to me...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Nifty

Here's the weekly S&R's:
5634, 5493, 5408, 5237, 5152, 5011

The predicted sideways motion of the market has happened. This market is now getting the squeeze put on it. The market is beginning the week near the top of the weekly cloud at 5272, and the upwards correction has not been concluded. Therefore, it would seem to be easy, It now goes flying up to the 5687 corrective target, and then back in the DOWN towards 4900 and below. Wrong!
This is because there is tremendous R the market still has to battle through, and momentum on the lower TF's is still against it. The weekly show a clear path to 5687. The daily does too, but it is trying to regain momentum. The 4-hour still has the tenken at 5377 to deal with, and then the bottom of the cloud, currently at 5488 to deal with. Once we get the candle to finish above that point, the move to 5687 could go fast. There is room for a spike into the cloud, so containment on the downside should be the WS1 at 5237, and the upside should be the cluster event between the 4-hour cloud and the WR2 at 5493.

 

[4xpipcounter]

More on the CI

The objective is the confidence factor of the trade or CI (Confidence interval) needs to be higher than the reciprocal of the risk/reward ratio. In the example I gave RR is 1/3, reciprocal is 33%. CI is 95%.
As far as I'm concerned, trading is not about stereotypes, but about getting the odds in your favor. IMO, as traders, we have an unfair advantage over the markets. The markets can only follow their natural ebb and flow and cyclical compositions. The trader has the methodology to spot that in advance.
Here's a live example from this thread:
The current intraday flow says the market has a downside containment of 5237, and upside possibilities are 5493. "Wow! All I need to do is wait for the market to back up a little hit the "buy" button on my platform, wait for it to move up 200 points, and then hit the "close" button.
Markets are bound by the cyclical flows. We have the unlimited resource of a methodology that is able to spot that move in advance.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/usd

This pair is headed further lower to start the week. The 4-hour kijun of 1.3684 will be S, but the level to look for is 1.3633. There will be either a very strong move through it, or price will sneak up on hang out for awhile, and then head back UP. If that level holds, then we should be headed to strong R at 1.3984, where there would be a strong reversal. If 1.3633 is taken out, then there should be some sort of correction back to that area, and then it will act as R for the week.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Monthly S&R's 0311 for Nifty

I cooked up some monthlies fresh off of 4x's stove, and they are piping hot:

6227, 5877, 5661, 5243, 5032, 4682

Notice how close the MR1 is to out 5687 level. All them more, that is the level to keep your eye on.
The MS2 is at the bottom of the weekly cloud. Those are some strong confluences.
My S&R's, BTW, have nothing to do with chart levels, but have everything to do with my mathematical formula. So, it is not by coincidence they match up so nicely with the ichimoku levels.

 

[leo_3455]

As a matter of fact, I live only 56 miles (90 km) from a huge city called Columbus.

Hi 4xpipcounter:

Good to know that you are from Ohio. I lived in Toledo, Ohio, for a year.

Just wanted to let the members know that since he is using Metatrader, you need to add 5 points to the value that is given here. Example if WR is 5494, it is actually 5494+5 = 5499. Just to avoid confusion, let him give his chart value and we can add 5 points...

Thanks for your analysis.:thumb: