Diary Of A Dedicated Wolf

#1
Hi Everyone


I am a full-time trader and I welcome you all to my thread 'A Diary of a Failed Trader'. For the longest time I have wanted to make a journal of my Positional and Intraday trades, so finally I gathered the courage to maintain it here in the Mecca of Indian stock markets TRADERJIdotCOM. My First Steps as a Trader began more than a decade back in this very Forum. If you search in-depth there are layers and layers of immense knowledge buried in loads of threads and posts.


My purpose is very basic and simple i.e. to have a journal for myself, Of course, from Time To Time, I will try to post my Trading Plan and my Technical Analysis. I will try to dump all my Trades at one place and Learn and become better; Learning Never Stops neither do Stock Markets. You only learn from your mistakes right?


Now a question will arise: why ‘TheFailedTrader’?


Well My friend there is nothing called 90 % win ratio, 80 % win ratio in trades executed in stock markets. The first basics of basic RULE in the stock market are to manage your Failures, Your Looser Trades, and Accept the Loss of a CORRECT Trade on time. This is the stock market and I am probably going to post more looser trades than winners. And I can vouch as a Full-time Trader that even with a 30% win ratio you can still be successful in stock markets. Booking Loss in a Correct Trade according To Plan is a WIN. You manage 7/10 trades with either Stop losses hit, or small losses or break-evens. BUT you Milk those 3/10 trades till the END...


I Use 4 Screens, Multiple Timeframes, Moving Averages, and Indicators at Times. I Look at a lot of Detail and Ignore Lots. Markets are Dynamic, I Adapt and I Use my Eyes and Stick to My Plan. SO THIS IS MY POINT OF VIEW.


I Would Be Highly Obliged If All The Seniors Of The Forum, Professional Traders, And Beginners With Basic Knowledge of Technical Analysis Would Discuss Their Points of View Regarding My Posts. The Purpose of This Thread in This Esteemed Forum is Healthy Discussions and Upwards Learning Curve.


Disclaimer:

1) The Posts are Mainly to Maintain My Journal and for Educational Purposes. I am not responsible for your Losses.

2) Do Your Basics. Try to Gather Knowledge from Discussions Here; I am Not Providing Financial Advice here.

3) I May or May Not Have Positions in Trades. Do Not Follow Me Blindly.

3) I will try to answer only Relevant Questions.


Regards

TheFailedTrader
 
#2
Hi everyone

Here goes my first trade Post

Biocon

So Nifty Pharma Broke A Trendline on Daily Charts Today... It was standing on It But closed at low on Friday... There Was a Good Chance Of a Breakdown As Continuation. So I Planned To Short Pharmacy Stocks Today If I Find a setup... Shortlisted Candidates were Dr. Reddy And Biocon.

So If You check out the first image, It's a daily chart... There is a downward Trendline starting dec'20, den July'21, November, and December.
Daily Biocon.png

1st chart

1) In November it gave a breakout on 17 November, and then a Failure very next day on 18 November.
2) After a Good Sideways For many days it again tried to give a breakout. But On second December it formed a double top near the same area where it gave a closing during November breakout and closed at the low of the day. This Trendline is a Major Supply Zone. So a close look at the smaller timeframes Is worth a look To find a setup with a good risk and reward ratio for the stock to start trending in one direction after a good sideways of approx. 2 weeks.


Intra Biocon.png


2nd chart

3) So around the daily Trendline of 1st chart which is point 5 in the chart the stock got sideways for many days... point 3 became a supply zone after the breakout. This is 5 minutes chart, It's so that I can explain minute details. after checking out 5 minutes chart .. Do check out the 15 minutes as well for better understanding.
Continuing And coming to today as I had planned to short pharma stocks. So after taking support at Point 5 Biocon gave a 5 minute and 15-minute Breakout of the supply zone of today after a good sideways on 5 minute and 15-minute Timeframe, It came near Point 3 came back took support near point 4 and a 5 minutes candle closed below the breakout of intraday... A Failure of intraday breakout in 5 and 15 Minutes TF. That is a good Risk Reward to trade. After careful consideration 367.15 was the short price with stop loss above the major supply zone Point 3 I.e. 369.10 giving some margin.

The trade reached the daily trendline Point 5 and point 6 which is also a support in the shorter timeframe of a few days sideways. They Intersect here, So at the 5 minute close below point 5 and point 6 it was a close of 30 minutes 60 minutes timeframe Candles also Is a Very Important Close. Some positions can be added with Stop loss now moved to a candle of 5 minutes close above these intersecting lines.

Finally, we need the next possible support looking at the past 15 minutes TF charts, it was around Rs. 360. So now It was around 3 p.m. first green candle of 5 minutes with a Wick at the support I had marked, I booked the whole position. Another method could have been partially booking profits like 60 % and trailing the Sl for the rest of the position. I had 1 loss trade as well, So my Psychological Situation was different.

It was a 1:3 Reward Trade.


Kind Regards

TheFailedTrader
 

Attachments

#3
Dr Reddy

As stated In the above posts There was a good chance of Nifty Pharma Breakdown.

Similarly Dr. Reddy had a very strong Red Candle in weekly that closed at the bottom right at the Weekly Trendline at Point 1 . So the plan is to find a good setup with a good risk-reward ratio.

Weekly DRREDDY.png

Intra DRREDDY.png
Now if you look into lower time frames we need a Good setup

1) Point 1 IS the Daily and Weekly Trendline
2) Point 2 is a Trial to Clear the Trendline i.e. Point 1 after a breakdown opening and going sideways and then a move up in 5 minutes Timeframe. It went sideways again and took support at Point 3. Now if it was a false breakdown on daily and weekly charts then The stock should move up. Our plan was to short a Good risk-reward ratio. It didn't move up, rather it moved down starting a Down move in intraday. Entry was around 4579 With a Stop loss above Point 2 i.e. 4595.
Managing the position trailing stop loss and Profit booking would be Point 4 Marked. Also, the Biggest volume candle is also one of the indicators of partial profit booking. that is up to individuals how to manage. Different times Different Psychology in the trade. Profits could have been booked Around 4503-4510 easily according to the 15-minute green candle also. Low was 4485. But who in the markets can ever buy the lowest and sell the highest :) .

Not all days are like this, Good Trending Days. But There are Always Stocks Which Trend Better Even When The Markets Are Sluggish. So Plan Your Trades and Trade Your Plan.

Kind Regards
TheFailedTrader
 
#4
Apollo Tyres

Well yes, Markets are Trending Down at The Moment, Everything is falling. So Another Shortlisted Stock Was Apollo Tyres. It Had a Similar Candle Of Continuation as in Nifty Auto.

Let's Take a Look.

Daily Apollo.png
So Inthis daily chart There is a trendline starting december'20.

1) Point 1 is the second day down and already both Trendlines are broken.. There is a retracement and a trendline is retested and a Continuation Candle is formed i.e. Point 2 . Similar to Nifty Auto, You can take a look. In a Downtrend, We Need Lower Highs.
So Plan is to find a setup with good Risk-Reward to short.

Intra Apollo.png


Looking at the above figure At point 3 I shorted at 207.75 after sideways and expected continuation keeping Stop Loss Above point 4 at 209.25 which was also 200 MA in 5 minutes chart and 50 Ma in 15 minutes chart. So yes I got stopped out and it was a blast... I could only get out around 209.75 as I usually wait for the candle to close and then trail SL.

I did not re-enter the trade as I was managing other trades. This was a failed breakout above point 5 Which is the Daily trendline coming from December'20. It took support right at the Trendline and took support for goo 20-25 minutes and fell.. it was a short below point 6 with Stop Loss At High.

I Gladly booked a loss Because That Was The Plan.

Kind Regards
TheFailedTrader
 
#5
So let me just explain what a Breakdown Failure is According to my experience, Whenever such breakdowns happen two of the following thing happens

1) there is a slow retracement to retest the Trendline. The slower it is the better chances of continuation. And you may get a good setup to short again intraday and positional.
2) there is a Quick retracement and a strong daily and weekly Closing above the Trendline. That is Breakdown Failure. And Breakdown failures give good positional Trades. Of course, Managing the trades using smaller timeframes hourly and 30 minutes is important.


Regards

TheFailedTrader

Embrace The Failures. !
Weekly DRREDDY.png
 
#6
3 December
NIFTY



So this is one of the classic setups which caught my attention and i took it.
As i told earlier, After breakdown of a daily trendline one of the two things happen. Either there is a retest and continuation or there is a failure of breakdown.
daily nifty.png


Nifty had been trending starting April-may 2020 until November as you can see in the trendline.
It broke the trendline after taking support for a few days on 26 November. following which it tried to retest the trendline on 2nd December and closed just near it. See candles Point 1

The following day trade could have gone either way. But the following happened...

intraday nifty.png


See Point 2 It's the daily trendline coming down from the bottom of 2020. It couldn't sustain it... Came down and Started forming a Bear Flag see Point 3.
I shorted at the breakdown of Flag around 17385 With Amazing Risk-Reward ratio stop loss above Point 4 around 17420. I kept trailing Sl First just above the Trendline from the previous day just below the Flag. I covered early near Point 5. Was getting 1:3 Reward around 17275, it was 200 MA in 15 min Tf and It halted for about good 30-40 minutes near it. Takes a toll on patience. I should have trailed Stop loss. But not all Days are like these. Would have been good 40-50 more points. But hey Who has ever bought the bottom and Sold at the Top? This is The stock market.

Take what you Get, Accept and Embrace what you Lose. You followed your plan. It's a WIN.


Regards
TheFailedTrader


There is only one thing that makes a dream impossible to achieve: the fear of failure. —Paulo Coelho.
 
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#8
Auropharma

Inverted Head and Shoulder

View attachment 47169
View attachment 47170

A Very Clear Head And Shoulder Pattern. Also Hourly took resistance at Trendline and also 200 MA.


Kind Regards

TheFailedTrader

Embrace The Failures..!
AUROPHARMA
8 DECEMBER



So as I made the plan yesterday to trade this Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern. I followed through.

AUROPHARMA HOURLY 8 DEC.png


AUROPHARMA INTRA.png


In the morning it breached the trendline and then started taking it as support For good 40 minutes. And started a Trendline upwards... I entered right there at 680 with Sl at 675.70 below lowest green candle after the red candle right below intra trendline 1st arrow near Point 1, Then added some quantity in sideways in 5 minutes of 1.5 hours... It blasted. I Kept patience till a Moving average which was 50 MA around 694 on Daily charts Point 2 which is a good resistance point. I trail stop losses using 50 MA on 5 minutes chart. the trending stock never retraced that is why I used the Daily moving average to book most quantities. Finally, around 700 was the psychological resistance. So good trade.


Kind Regards

TheFailedTrader

Embrace The Failures...!
 
#9
Bandhan Bank

BANDHANBNK daily.png


As you can see In the above chartThere is a major trendline Starting Mar-April '20. THis Trendline had a breakdown on 29 november, see point 1. After that it got sideways and tried retesting the Trendline.

Now 2 things can happen Either A Breakdown Failure Or Continuation.

So i bet on a good chance of Breakdown failure because of good momentum in Nifty and Bank nifty . So i traded as Follows.

BANDHANBNK Intra.png



So it Breached the Major daily trendline With good volumes, See the First three opening candles Before it got sideways See Point 1 In the above chart. It was a good 3 hours sideways... I entered in the middle of it because it was good retracement after momentum and had the good potential of continuation because of sideways. I entered 282.90 With a low of sideways 281.85 as Stop loss, Added quantity also because of good sideways. It broke out with a good 5-minute candle and got sideways. But Got back with a Big Red Candle see point 2, And see the volume in the same candle. I exited Looking at this candle and volume right at Breakeven. So good Trade, And Overall a Great day.

Warm Regards,
TheFailedTrader

Failure should be our teacher, not our undertaker..! - Denis Waitley
 

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