Day Trading Stocks & Futures

NS- 15250-15350 may be the critical zone for downtrend termination. NS has recovered 0.75% or so from the lows but the downside may still be open.
 
Buy grocery and vegetables online.
I buy 95% grocery and most of the vegetables, online.

BTW, I hope you are also from a metro city and so having online facility. You may send me your shopping list (with price) and I will let you know the price prevailing here (online) in Delhi NCR. :DD
Shab Ji,
Kyoun fakir का mazak uda rahai हो.
Hum to Gaonwala hai. बडी मुश्किल se to order place होती है. :p
 
Good analysis done. My initial observations are as under :

I have not checked the details of calculations .Have you taken into consideration of all corporate actions such as Bonus,Splits,rights in case of stocks ?Have you considered the dividend incomes from stocks ?Please check your calculations again.....stocks should have given you much better returns than mutual funds though small and mid cap funds have given excellent CAGR in last 10 years.

The stocks we have selected are mostly large cap stocks and we are comparing the returns with Large,Multicap ,Midcap and small cap MFs. Out of these 4 sectors, three sector MFs namely Midcap,Multicap and small cap MFs giving high volatility and also high returns ....so the comparison is not apples to apples comparison .Compare stocks returns with Largecap MFs or take bluechip small and midcap stocks also in the coparison.Small and Mid cap MFs have given upwards of 17-18 % CAGR returns in last 10 years.

I have tossed this querry to some of my more knowledgeable and experienced investor friends ,let us see if we get some more insights from them...

Hi @Smart_trade Sir,
Here is an update based on your feedback:
1. In our calculation we have now considered Bonus, Splits, and Reinvestment of dividends(post 30% tax). 10,000 invested monthly with 15% increase in instalments YoY.
2. Now we are comparing apple with an apple. i.e. Large&Midcap mutual funds vs Large&Midcap stocks mixed vs NiftBees
3. To make the results more realistic, we have not considered few extra ordinary performer like BajFin, Dmart, etc. Also have considered 1 extreme loose like YesBank considering that in real world i would have made mistake of investing in it. All these is done to make results more realistic/normalized.

My original question remains as is:
If the calculations are correct, we see that returns are just little bit more in stocks on average basis, then why would one take all the pain of stock hunting, and not the mutual fund way. I am sure there is something i might be missing, Please throw some light on this matter.

1655131771483.png

Note: Details of above matrix/calculation can be found in below google docs.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19p1mrWKkncZK06QTxItxrviEK9bIbJ1xa1T9mymEf8M/edit?usp=sharing

Stocks under test were:
ASIAN PAINTS
PIDILITE
TITAN
TCS
BAJAUTO
RELAXO
RELIANCE
MARUTI
WIPRO
TECHM
SUNPHARMA
ICICI
AXIS
DLF
NESTLE
BRITANNIA
DABUR
Cipla
Havells
Marico
Berger paint
PageInd

@travi Sir, NiftyBees data is also now compared in above sheet. Would love to know your opinion as well.
 
Last edited:

travi

Well-Known Member
Hi @Smart_trade Sir,
Here is an update based on your feedback:
1. In our calculation we have now considered Bonus, Splits, and Reinvestment of dividends(post 30% tax). 10,000 invested monthly with 15% increase in instalments YoY.
2. Now we are comparing apple with an apple. i.e. Large&Midcap mutual funds vs Large&Midcap stocks mixed vs NiftBees
3. To make the results more realistic, we have not considered few extra ordinary performer like BajFin, Dmart, etc. Also have considered 1 extreme loose like YesBank considering that in real world i would have made mistake of investing in it. All these is done to make results more realistic/normalized.

My original question remains as is:
If the calculations are correct, we see that returns are just little bit more in stocks on average basis, then why would one take all the pain of stock hunting, and not the mutual fund way. I am sure there is something i might be missing, Please throw some light on this matter.

View attachment 47819
Note: Details of above matrix/calculation can be found in below google docs.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19p1mrWKkncZK06QTxItxrviEK9bIbJ1xa1T9mymEf8M/edit?usp=sharing

Stocks under test were:
ASIAN PAINTS
PIDILITE
TITAN
TCS
BAJAUTO
RELAXO
RELIANCE
MARUTI
WIPRO
TECHM
SUNPHARMA
ICICI
AXIS
DLF
NESTLE
BRITANNIA
DABUR
Cipla
Havells
Marico
Berger paint
PageInd

@travi Sir, NiftyBees data is also now compared in above sheet. Would love to know your opinion as well.
Thanks for the efforts.

4M vs 3M on corpus of 1.9M is huge difference, not small.
Infact if calcs are ok, then that extra effort for gains is totally worth it.

I'm surprised hdfc twins not there, kotak too :)
1 or 2 like Dmart / Bajfin can truly knock the ball out of the park.
 
Last edited:
Hi @Smart_trade Sir,
Here is an update based on your feedback:
1. In our calculation we have now considered Bonus, Splits, and Reinvestment of dividends(post 30% tax). 10,000 invested monthly with 15% increase in instalments YoY.
2. Now we are comparing apple with an apple. i.e. Large&Midcap mutual funds vs Large&Midcap stocks mixed vs NiftBees
3. To make the results more realistic, we have not considered few extra ordinary performer like BajFin, Dmart, etc. Also have considered 1 extreme loose like YesBank considering that in real world i would have made mistake of investing in it. All these is done to make results more realistic/normalized.

My original question remains as is:
If the calculations are correct, we see that returns are just little bit more in stocks on average basis, then why would one take all the pain of stock hunting, and not the mutual fund way. I am sure there is something i might be missing, Please throw some light on this matter.

View attachment 47819
Note: Details of above matrix/calculation can be found in below google docs.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19p1mrWKkncZK06QTxItxrviEK9bIbJ1xa1T9mymEf8M/edit?usp=sharing

Stocks under test were:
ASIAN PAINTS
PIDILITE
TITAN
TCS
BAJAUTO
RELAXO
RELIANCE
MARUTI
WIPRO
TECHM
SUNPHARMA
ICICI
AXIS
DLF
NESTLE
BRITANNIA
DABUR
Cipla
Havells
Marico
Berger paint
PageInd

@travi Sir, NiftyBees data is also now compared in above sheet. Would love to know your opinion as well.
Now the figures add up....stocks are giving 29.3 % more than mutual funds.The large cap stocks on average will give 18-20 % CAGR and largecap MFs will give 14-15 %. ( in extremely rare cases of midcap/smallcap stocks like Persistant Systems or Tata Elxsi one gets superlative returns but that comes with high volatility too...)It is very difficult to hit over 20-22 % in established largecap stocks on average( meaning some will exceed 20-22 % and some will not reach that lelel) so on average 18-20 CAGR % is a good return in large cap stocks. Anything over 16-18 % on long duration of 10-20 years consistantly will make investor very rich once the capital increases and starts rolling.

Nothing wrong in investing in Mutual funds as it eliminates work of stock picking.If one can digest the volatility,small and midcap mutual funds can even give more than 22-23 or more % CAGR but that comes with increased volatility.

Index funds and Index ETFs give 12-14 % CAGR if lumpsum amount is invested.

The way to get superlative returns is when the stock goes into a period of increased profits/free cash flows...here the stock price gets lifted due to increase in earnings and also increase in P/E multiples due to stock getting noticed by institutions/large investors.(Example :Relaxo,Titan)

You will see that few stocks like Asian Paints,Pidilite,Titan,Britania,Havels have given returns which is about 60-65 % higher than the MF returns and that makes the stock selection worth all the troubles.
 
Last edited:
Hi @Smart_trade Sir,
Here is an update based on your feedback:
1. In our calculation we have now considered Bonus, Splits, and Reinvestment of dividends(post 30% tax). 10,000 invested monthly with 15% increase in instalments YoY.
2. Now we are comparing apple with an apple. i.e. Large&Midcap mutual funds vs Large&Midcap stocks mixed vs NiftBees
3. To make the results more realistic, we have not considered few extra ordinary performer like BajFin, Dmart, etc. Also have considered 1 extreme loose like YesBank considering that in real world i would have made mistake of investing in it. All these is done to make results more realistic/normalized.

My original question remains as is:
If the calculations are correct, we see that returns are just little bit more in stocks on average basis, then why would one take all the pain of stock hunting, and not the mutual fund way. I am sure there is something i might be missing, Please throw some light on this matter.

View attachment 47819
Note: Details of above matrix/calculation can be found in below google docs.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19p1mrWKkncZK06QTxItxrviEK9bIbJ1xa1T9mymEf8M/edit?usp=sharing

Stocks under test were:
ASIAN PAINTS
PIDILITE
TITAN
TCS
BAJAUTO
RELAXO
RELIANCE
MARUTI
WIPRO
TECHM
SUNPHARMA
ICICI
AXIS
DLF
NESTLE
BRITANNIA
DABUR
Cipla
Havells
Marico
Berger paint
PageInd

@travi Sir, NiftyBees data is also now compared in above sheet. Would love to know your opinion as well.
I don't get the confusion... the equivalent RD is like
16k per month for 10 years RD @ 15%pa gives MV of about 40lk
16k per month for 10 years RD @ 8.7%pa gives MV of about 31lk
Double ka difference hai Krishan sir... What am I missing?
 

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