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siddhant4u

Well-Unknown Member

TraderRavi

low risk profile
Indian economy can contract 2.6%; US over 11% in worst case in 2020: Nomura


The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic is likely to hit the global economy, including India, hard over the next few months. With nearly 75 per cent of the Indian economy in lockdown mode, Nomura has lowered the 2020 GDP growth forecast to -0.5 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.5 per cent.

“We now expect GDP growth to slide from 4.7 per cent y-o-y in Q4 2019 to 3.1 per cent in Q1 and plunge to -6.1 per cent in Q2, when both domestic and external demand will weaken. We are building in a sequential pickup in the second half of 2020, but the pace of recovery is likely to be much weaker given some lasting damage to potential output,” wrote Sonal Varma, managing director and chief India economist at Nomura in a co-authored report with Aurodeep Nandi titled 'COVID-19’s impact on the world economy'.

In its worst case projection if the Covid-19 pandemic becomes a full-blown credit crisis for India, corporates find it difficult to stay afloat, and banks struggle with the balance sheet fallout, Nomura expects GDP growth in Q2 to fall to -10.3 per cent y-o-y and - 1.5 per cent in H2-2020. That apart, rising unemployment, loss of income and disenchantment against the draconian measures may even lead to social unrest, Nomura says.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), it feels, will likely deliver another around 100 basis points (bps) of policy easing, even though inflation may face some upside risk from food and medical good shortages due to prolonged shutdowns. Fiscal deficit, amid these measures, Nomura says, could still slip to 5.5 – 6 per cent of GDP versus the 3.5 per cent target for FY21.

On the other hand, if things turn out to be better than expected and the 21-day lockdown in India is lifted as announced, the GDP growth then would slow from 3.1 per cent y-o-y in Q1 to -5.1 per cent in Q2 and average at 2.3 per cent in H2-2020.

US, Euro area economies to suffer most

At the global level, Nomura sees the US and Euro area economies to suffer the most due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the experience of other countries, the COVID-19 outbreak, it feels, in the United States still appears to be in an early stage. In the worst-case scenario, Nomura expects the recovery in H2 to be even more lacklustre and the recession to last longer.

Recently, the White House said US' peak death toll from the coronavirus is likely in two weeks and in a worst case scenario, a total of 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could eventually succumb to the virus.
In the worst-case scenario, Nomura believes there could be more significant credit losses, greater stress on the financial system and tighter financial conditions in H2 2020. “In this case, we would expect year-on-year growth of -11.3 per cent in 2020,” wrote Lewis Alexander, Nomura's chief US economist in the anchor report.

As for monetary policy, there is not much more that they expect from the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB). That said, Nomura expects the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) to keep short-term rates at current levels (0 – 0.25 per cent) at least through the end of 2021.

“The Fed may include purchases of short-dated municipal securities. In addition, they are likely to release more detail on a ‘Main Street Business Lending Program’ aimed at lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Finally, the Fed is also likely to use additional credit protection from Treasury to expand their current emergency credit facilities by expanding the list of eligible assets, terms and counterparties," the Nomura report said.




https://www.business-standard.com/a...worst-case-in-2020-nomura-120033000469_1.html
 

siddhant4u

Well-Unknown Member
The event happened on 18th and not 13th of March.

Besides the Delhi Govt passed orders on 15th March to ban all manner of congregations - https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ll-march-31/articleshow/74650421.cms?from=mdr

This was purely illegal from all angles and an act amounting to culpable homicide in the current circumstances.
alright, but no need to give it communal colour... there are many muslim traders in forum too and hatred should be kept to twitter/personal fb.
 
alright, but no need to give it communal colour... there are many muslim traders in forum too and hatred should be kept to twitter/personal fb.
Quoting one stupid act is not a communal one. I am calling a spade a spade. And if that idiot who did that happens to be someone from a different religion doesn't mean I am communal.
It is an act against humanity and should not be viewed from a communal lens.

Consider this -we as traders/ investors keep comparing best practices between companies. So when I say a Tata group company is better than HDFC when it comes to corporate governance, does that if I am anti- HDFC and pro- Tata? And will it mean that the HDFC chap who might also be a member of this esteemed forum take offence? No. My analogy is similar.

The facts are there for everyone to evaluate in plain sight. The Delhi Govt passes orders on 15th of March. This nut job defies that and goes ahead with a massive congregation despite the police and the Govt issuing orders against it. If that is not illegal and an act of criminal violation then what else is it???

I am definitely not going to not call out on a crime just because someone belonged to a certain caste or certain religion. I still cannot understand how calling out a completely ridiculously stupid act, especially during this time is classified as an act of hatred. It is not.
 
People are not going to travel for vacation at different homes, uncle home etc so they are not going to travel back, add to this revenue lost on rail neer, meal on wheels etc...
It is going to take few quarters at least for travel to be on track...
Unless we find a jadibutti or a cure people are going to avoid travel in general
I agree that IRCTC will be the worst hit stock if travel is reduced or frozen for large periods.

You should agree that it will the fastest upward moving stock the moment travel starts to resume.

And we all agree that IRCTC has already taken a hit of more than 50% since the pandemic broke out.
 

mohan.sic

Well-Known Member
Just after the PM's addres, TTD suspended all pilgrims from visiting from Friday onwards.

Following TTD's decision to suspend pilgrim worship from Fri ..

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

everything was closed after PM's call....
but not on the date when this gathering happened.... ..there were no severe restrictions on 18th...this is not supporting that gathering...but calling them names is to rethink...bcz there will be lakhs of such nuts from all religious... It just happened to spread from that gathering ….they were not fornunate but not crazy to this. wantedly is tht I think....
 
everything was closed after PM's call....
but not on the date when this gathering happened.... ..there were no severe restrictions on 18th...this is not supporting that gathering...but calling them names is to rethink...bcz there will be lakhs of such nuts from all religious... It just happened to spread from that gathering ….they were not fornunate but not crazy to this. wantedly is tht I think....
wantedly. It happened wantedly. Look up the other news posts I made and you will see the reason out clearly. Rules were defied.
 

siddhant4u

Well-Unknown Member
https://www.livemint.com/news/india...cial-year-says-government-11585588898628.html
No extension of the Financial Year, says government

The government on Monday said it has not extended the current financial year 2019-20 and it will end as scheduled on March 31. The finance ministry issued the clarification following a fake new circulating in some media reports that the Financial Year has been extended.
"There is no extension of the financial year," the finance ministry said.
The finance ministry said, a notification issued by the Government of India on 30th March 2020 with respect to some other amendments done in the Indian Stamp Act is being misquoted. There is no extension of the Financial Year.
 
I am surprised,
that there is no major news (till now) about spreading of Corona in Dubai, UAE and adjoining countries.
But why passengers, who returned (as early as Feb end) from these Mid East countries were Corona infected / carrying Corona virus
 
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