Day Trading Stocks & Futures
- Thread starter TraderRavi
- Start date
- Tags banknifty bnf daytrading nifty future
Lets try an assessment of the NIFTY and the BN after the budget.
1. NIFTY is @ 50WSMA and between -0.5 to -1.0 SD on the BB.
2. BN is also the same. Just a smidge below the 50WSMA and between -0.5 to -1.0 SD on the BB.
3. On the Monthly charts, both indices are at +1 SD BB.
4.
In only 5 / 19 instances did this two week bottom hold in the MT.
In the remaining 14 instances, the fall continued (red candles) for
3 weeks - thrice
4 week - twice
5 weeks - 8 times
9 weeks - once.
5. In only 5 / 19 instances did this two week bottom hold in the MT. In the remaining 4 instances, the fall continued (red candles) for 3 weeks - thrice 4 week - twice 5 weeks - 8 times 9 weeks - once.
6. The absolute bottom in terms of MAs was made at
20WSMA - Once
50WSMA - Four Times
100WSMA - 5 times
200WSMA - 6 times
below 200WSMA - twice
7. As of today, the 100WSMA for the NIFTY is @ 11200 and the 200WSMA is @ 10200.
In terms of the SD, the bottom was made @
-1SD - 4 times
-2SD - 3 times
-2.5SD - 3 times &
-3SD or beyond - 8 times
9. In 7/19 instances, the biggest red candle didn't even happen in the first two weeks.
In 9/19 instances, the "correction" resulted in atleast 3 negative months.
In 6/19 instances, the trigger for the correction was the budget.
10. Next, lets take a quick look at the BN
1. Unlike the NIFTY, this is 5th week of a fall in the BN with 4 of them being red candles.
2. In these 5 weeks, it has fallen 8.72%.
If we look at the swing high to low moves in the BN (from 2008), then we come up with 17 instances.
11. These 17 instances can be divided into 3 time and price destruction buckets:
1. 5 to 6 weeks - 5 instances with an average fall of ~14%
2. 8 to 9 weeks - 10 instances with price fall between 14% - 23% (grouped around 14% or 21%ish)
3. ~15 weeks - 3 instances.
12. From a MA perspective, a correction in the BN has halted around these levels only 3/17 times. From a SD perspective on the monthly charts 3 times it has halted near the +1SD.
Thus the Current move in BN & the NIFTY is a little "light" from a price destruction perspective.
13. Having said that, looking at the data for the NIFTY & the BN, I still hold on to my LT (12 months or so) prediction of ~14K on the NIFTY & 38K - 40K on the BN.
In the ST, there is a 30% - 40% chance we have made a bottom or are within 1% - 2% of bottom (wish I could time it!)
14. There is a slightly higher probability that we see the fall continue for the next 2 - 3 weeks & reach close to ~11300 on the NIFTY.
The worst case scenario, in which my LT prediction is belied, is a fall to 200WSMA near 10200 - 10300. This would be a very low probability (IMO).
15. A quick analysis of the top few index heavyweights:
1. Reliance - Close to support but will move along with the NIFTY. Potential downside target is 1220ish.
2. HDFC Bank - Good chance is done with the fall here. 50WSMA & -2 SD.
3. HDFC - Also good chance is done with ~2150 to 2170 as the potential target on the downside.
4. ICICI Bank - Can go down to 470 - 480ish range levels.
5. SBIN - A good chance it holds 292 - 300 in the ST.
6. Axis Bank - Difficult to say.
7. ITC - Overdone in the very ST. In a few weeks or months can go down to 180 - 190 esp. if we don't see a solid reversal here.
8. INFY - Consolidation with a minor upside.
9. TCS - Seems to be in permanent consolidation.
10. Bajaj Finance - Trends that dreams are made of.
11. Kotak Bank - Probably consolidating but am not sure here.
12. Maruti - Consolidating between 20WSMA & 50WSMA #Disclaimer - Bought calls on Saturday.
13. LT - Doesn't look good. 1200 is a distinct possibility here.
1. NIFTY is @ 50WSMA and between -0.5 to -1.0 SD on the BB.
2. BN is also the same. Just a smidge below the 50WSMA and between -0.5 to -1.0 SD on the BB.
3. On the Monthly charts, both indices are at +1 SD BB.
4.
In only 5 / 19 instances did this two week bottom hold in the MT.
In the remaining 14 instances, the fall continued (red candles) for
3 weeks - thrice
4 week - twice
5 weeks - 8 times
9 weeks - once.
5. In only 5 / 19 instances did this two week bottom hold in the MT. In the remaining 4 instances, the fall continued (red candles) for 3 weeks - thrice 4 week - twice 5 weeks - 8 times 9 weeks - once.
6. The absolute bottom in terms of MAs was made at
20WSMA - Once
50WSMA - Four Times
100WSMA - 5 times
200WSMA - 6 times
below 200WSMA - twice
7. As of today, the 100WSMA for the NIFTY is @ 11200 and the 200WSMA is @ 10200.
In terms of the SD, the bottom was made @
-1SD - 4 times
-2SD - 3 times
-2.5SD - 3 times &
-3SD or beyond - 8 times
9. In 7/19 instances, the biggest red candle didn't even happen in the first two weeks.
In 9/19 instances, the "correction" resulted in atleast 3 negative months.
In 6/19 instances, the trigger for the correction was the budget.
10. Next, lets take a quick look at the BN
1. Unlike the NIFTY, this is 5th week of a fall in the BN with 4 of them being red candles.
2. In these 5 weeks, it has fallen 8.72%.
If we look at the swing high to low moves in the BN (from 2008), then we come up with 17 instances.
11. These 17 instances can be divided into 3 time and price destruction buckets:
1. 5 to 6 weeks - 5 instances with an average fall of ~14%
2. 8 to 9 weeks - 10 instances with price fall between 14% - 23% (grouped around 14% or 21%ish)
3. ~15 weeks - 3 instances.
12. From a MA perspective, a correction in the BN has halted around these levels only 3/17 times. From a SD perspective on the monthly charts 3 times it has halted near the +1SD.
Thus the Current move in BN & the NIFTY is a little "light" from a price destruction perspective.
13. Having said that, looking at the data for the NIFTY & the BN, I still hold on to my LT (12 months or so) prediction of ~14K on the NIFTY & 38K - 40K on the BN.
In the ST, there is a 30% - 40% chance we have made a bottom or are within 1% - 2% of bottom (wish I could time it!)
14. There is a slightly higher probability that we see the fall continue for the next 2 - 3 weeks & reach close to ~11300 on the NIFTY.
The worst case scenario, in which my LT prediction is belied, is a fall to 200WSMA near 10200 - 10300. This would be a very low probability (IMO).
15. A quick analysis of the top few index heavyweights:
1. Reliance - Close to support but will move along with the NIFTY. Potential downside target is 1220ish.
2. HDFC Bank - Good chance is done with the fall here. 50WSMA & -2 SD.
3. HDFC - Also good chance is done with ~2150 to 2170 as the potential target on the downside.
4. ICICI Bank - Can go down to 470 - 480ish range levels.
5. SBIN - A good chance it holds 292 - 300 in the ST.
6. Axis Bank - Difficult to say.
7. ITC - Overdone in the very ST. In a few weeks or months can go down to 180 - 190 esp. if we don't see a solid reversal here.
8. INFY - Consolidation with a minor upside.
9. TCS - Seems to be in permanent consolidation.
10. Bajaj Finance - Trends that dreams are made of.
11. Kotak Bank - Probably consolidating but am not sure here.
12. Maruti - Consolidating between 20WSMA & 50WSMA #Disclaimer - Bought calls on Saturday.
13. LT - Doesn't look good. 1200 is a distinct possibility here.
@timepass - more information on how I trade with indicators:
In the image above you would notice numbers 1,2,3 & also -1. In this chart, the positive numbers mark trades that were taken when the price closed 1SD above the Moving Avg & those trades which did not hit the stop of 1 SD below the MA at the entry price.
The -1 indicates the trade where the stop was hit for the day. Now, you would notice that this parameter setting (20 min candles and BB 20,1) gives 5 trades in a week with 1 trade hitting the SL for this particular stock.
The choice of indicators & their parameters are dependent on how one slices the data available and how one sees the max. probability of winning with the given data set.
Hope this clarifies!
In the image above you would notice numbers 1,2,3 & also -1. In this chart, the positive numbers mark trades that were taken when the price closed 1SD above the Moving Avg & those trades which did not hit the stop of 1 SD below the MA at the entry price.
The -1 indicates the trade where the stop was hit for the day. Now, you would notice that this parameter setting (20 min candles and BB 20,1) gives 5 trades in a week with 1 trade hitting the SL for this particular stock.
The choice of indicators & their parameters are dependent on how one slices the data available and how one sees the max. probability of winning with the given data set.
Hope this clarifies!
Godrej Properties Q3 net profit up 9% at Rs 45.5 crore
The company's revenue was up 12.6 percent at Rs 383 crore against Rs 340.1 crore.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...net-profit-up-9-at-rs-45-5-crore-4897071.html
The company's revenue was up 12.6 percent at Rs 383 crore against Rs 340.1 crore.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/b...net-profit-up-9-at-rs-45-5-crore-4897071.html
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