Day Trading Stocks & Futures

[vikas2131]

 

[Riskyman]

@nitingosavi @sanju005ind Attaching a list of 250-260 stocks I would look at for investing in long term. I have deliberately added stocks like Bhushan steel and JBF Industries which have/will go to NCLT. This is because these companies have excellent assets like land & Machinery. Given land acquisition problems in India and the cost of setting up new greenfield projects, it has to be noted that flush cash/investors will be ready to buy such assets to turn them into profitable entities in the next 1-2 decades. So, having a go a these companies in small quantities is worthwhile even though risky.

Market is still trading at 25 P/E and I would think we are headed for much lower levels that can provide better investing opportunities. Therefore, buying these companies now even the via stock SIP route (self handled) is not warranted. I would just like to set aside spare cash and wait for better entries.

I have missed out on some very obvious banking/IT names. Please feel to add them to the list.




Edit: Please delete Morepen labs as it got there by error.

 

[timepass]

But below is the comparative chart in case of ICICIBANK in terms of price. Value has not yet eroded. :

View attachment 29237

So maybe that ICICIBank monthly is showing either a double top or a cup-n-handle in the making, depending on whether you are bearish or bullish

 

[headstrong007]

Believe it or not my long term analysis showing something unusual bear grip since 2008 (already said).
Most people are still thinking it's just another correction till 9950, the bears will try to trap them in their own ways.

NDFC & Auto already down. Now gormint helped bears in OMCs and RBI helped bears in BANKS. Real estate and consumers also in down move. What more bears need. Only IT is doing well but may be Trump uncle can take care of it soon.

************
My sense is that, multi leg bear market is just started which can last much longer than what Gormint and common investors are thinking now. Bear market criteria - now all rallies will be sharp and swift which will be finally sold / used as exit option for investors.

I think the bull market which started from 2013 end or so, might be end now. Next 6-7 month we will get frequent opportunities to double tipple our PEs. Sometimes CE too as bear market rallies are sharper.

Be ready.
It's time to shoot. December 11 poll result, then Jan is usually the month of bear again just like remember I said here (in advance), the month of October is known for bears.

Rupee can go to 77 easily, more pain left from Crude side in first quarter of 2019 b4 vote.

When the investors are fearful.. It's traders market. Cheers...

 

[headstrong007]

So maybe that ICICIBank monthly is showing either a double top or a cup-n-handle in the making, depending on whether you are bearish or bullish

View attachment 29246

ICICIBank is going to test historical support zone 255-260 bcoz probably Bank Nifty is going to test much lower levels now.
That time look at the value of RSI, if it's goes below 50; then the break of the support (and next level 225) also possible. As of now at lest 274 is fair target, bcoz kicking out of MD is good news for bears.

 

[iwillwin]

There is too much pessimism around market and over the weekend media, news are also doing the same work..cnbc TV 18 arranged their bear market poster boy for a show to make believe that it is a bear market.
If everyone is so pessimistic who is gonna buy when you sell pressing market orders in hurry or in fear of getting missed out.

Market has often uncanny way of getting the general view for a tipsy turvy ride...so do trade what u see and not what u believe or are made to believe over the weekend...

Don't let your accumulate profits go by challenging the market

Market will always be there !!

 

[afin]

I've tried to review 23 corrections since Jan 2002 (excluding 2008-09) to find what kind of patterns exist in a correction and can we make any judgments from this history of corrections. So, Lets see what comes out of this.

#1
Every correction > 10% since Jan 2002 is included in this analysis. Some of these corrections could also be corrections within a longer down trend. Some key analysis parameters are: 1. Speed of Decline 2. Duration of Decline 3. Types of Candles in the Decline (Weekly Charts)

#2
4. Where did the correction start? 5. Max. no. of consecutive Reds 6. Where did the corrections end? 7. Was there any intra-correction consolidation of between 2 - 4 weeks? 8. No. of weeks to previous high 9. Where did the subsequent rally end? 10. RSI Tops and RSI Bottoms

#3
There are broadly 3 types of corrections: a. Fast & Brutal -> Straight-line corrections lasting between 4 - 6 weeks. Speed of decline is astonishingly high with a median decline of 2.7% per week. Make up 40% of all corrections of >10%. Rarely have > 1 green week per correction

#4.
These types of corrections tend to happen in primarily bullish markets and esp. from ATHs. In a nutshell, The Sep 2018 is the most common type of correction seen by the NIFTY.

#5
The second type of corrections are what I'd call the "Unsure corrections". Unlike "Fast and Brutal", the duration is closer to 8 - 10 weeks but the speed is considerably slower at a median speed of 1.61% per week. The ranges are approx. same as "Fast and Brutal" corrections.

#6
These corrections tend to have a more balanced ratio of Red & Green candles going up to 50% in one or two cases. 5 / 23 corrections fall in this category. These corrections (just like the previous one) don't have any kind of intra-correction consolidation of >= 2 Weeks.

#7
The 3rd and final type of corrections are the true bear market corrections. Individually, these corrections have lasted anywhere between 11 - 22 weeks but are almost part of a larger bear market. Median speed of decline is < 1% per week.

#8
Such corrections, almost always, have intra-correction consolidation of between 2- 4 weeks.

#9
With the context set, Lets look at the current correction (Sep 2018): a. 8th fastest correction. b. 16th in terms of price damage. (Median price damage is 13.55% and current is 12.78%) c. Fell from the 4th highest RSI Level (77.1)

#10
d. Second fastest in terms of RSI Decline (7.04 per week) e. Almost all of these corrections had individual weeks with declines of >= 4%. Sometimes more than one such week. f. No "Fast and Brutal" correction has lasted more than six weeks

#11
At the end of every single one of the 22 corrections (excluding current one), NIFTY rallied to near or beyond the +0.5 SD to +1 SD Weekly BB. This range today is 11264 - 11454. Please note this is dynamic and subject to change.

#12
13 of 22 times, the previous high was reached in a lesser number of weeks as compared to the correction. 17 of 22 times, the post-correction rally ended at a new Swing High or an ATH.

#13
Where do we go from here? Scenario One: a. This is a "fast and Brutal" correction. In that case, the highest probability is that either the low has been made or will be made next week (difficult to time). There is a high-probability that this can happen.

#14
Scenario Two: This turns into a bear-market correction and becomes a part of the larger correction. Even in that case, the brutal part of the fall should be mostly done.

#15
IF this is a bear market, the speed of decline has to dramatically reduce from 2.12% per week to <1% per week. For this to happen significant consolidation has to happen. What shape can the consolidation take?

#16
A rise to near the -0.5 SD Weekly BB to 20WSMA (currently @ 10885 - 11074) is a very good probability. What kind of correction is this? We'll know only when and where the rally post the correction ends.

This is such a detailed analysis!!

 

[headstrong007]

Believe only what you see... Anyone can see the rare vertical fall similar to,
Niagara Falls.

Many of indicators in HTF are in oversold zone for long time indicating unusual bear grip, those who observed early are making huge money.... Short term momentum indicator will reverse automatically, just follow the market and see the real picture always from a distance to understand the market.

If someone is too fearful to trade due to volatility, just enjoy the scenery from outside. We will try to make the scenery more beautiful by shorting more & buying PE more whenever possible (breakdown of every supports).

Most people try to enjoy the bear market fall from outside like above, only a few can take the risk like George Soros.
It's not every day trader's game to book profits from shorts again and again in such vertical fall and short even more intraday(or buy intraday PE) using such profits. When market remains in oversold zone for maximum time, it gives the maximum opportunity to make money for prolong time.
In a bear market, only a few can make it big who enter early and have courage to retain their short until the market shows the reversal sign.

When market ends at days low and weeks low many people assume next day market will do a big gap up, missed the real opportunity to make money by catching the gap downs. Only a real bear market gives consecutive gap downs (like past few days) but very few traders can catch them bcoz they don't understand the market structure at all (when it is different in HTF).
Greed and Fear are the two main enemy which also create illusions in chart reading. People are mostly fearful than greedy. They missed more opportunities due to fear (they want more confirmation again and again) and book looses heavily due to fear of loosing too.

I always enjoy the CNBC how the create panic and greed to fuel the market momentum. Simply awesome.

 

[Riskyman]

Hang Seng down 1%, Shanghai down 3%. Looks like we will be opening 60-70 points down?

 

[rahulmalik]