Day Trading Stocks & Futures

headstrong007

----- Full-Time ----- Day-Trader
This chart should clarify any doubt that anyone may have in their mind. MACD is indicating multi year top in place. If it works like it had worked before, it may be a few years before we see same levels on nifty

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Analysed quarterly charts for you, if it's a break of 9900 then next support zone is 9100 (9600 may not be enough),
and if its 2008 like fall then support @7500.
Soon number of SIPs will decrease. I knew the general public mentality very well :-
Arre bhai FII-FPI bhag raha hai, to hum kya kare! :DD
Oh oh! We did enough prediction? No one can predict the market (at least in the long run), lets watch and see how market behave.
:DD We are just reading the charts in longer time frames in our own ways..
 
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vikas2131

Well-Known Member
Lot Of Fear Mongering On Markets & Where It Will Go. Levels Projected Well Below 10000 On Nifty For Next Week. In terms Of Severity & Benchmark For Current Fall, The Benchmarks Are First Sell Off In 2000 & 2008. The Data Is Below




So 2000 Was More Volatile Than 2008, But First Sell Off In Both Case Was Almost Same at 7.5 ATR. Applying That To Current Nifty Top Of 11760, We get Levels Of 10020-10100. Market Should Find Support At Or Before That Level and Hold For Couple Of Months. Over To Market Now
 

vikas2131

Well-Known Member
Some points about Cycles Of Stock Market and Where We Are At Current Juncture! The Benner Fibonacci Time Cycles Point That Major Stock Market Cycles Happen With 8-10 Year Difference Between Consecutive Tops & Bottom



We Had Major Market Tops In SENSEX at 1992, Followed By 2000 (8Yr), Followed By 2008(8Yr).. Now We are in 2018 (10 yrs). There Are Intermediate Corrections Also In-Between. The Difference -Correction After Benner Time Cycle is Complete Are Severe With Index Dropping 40-50%



Now We Have Some Kind Of Confirmation Of Beginning Of Correction On Monthly Charts. We Are In Initial Stage .

The First Sign of Monthly Correction Is Index Closing Below 10SMA On Monthly Overbought Charts. The Month Is Yet To Close, But It's an Early Indication. These Correction On Monthly Run For 12 to 18 Months, So We Can Expect Current Correction to Last Till 2019 End-Early 2020 .

However, It's Not One Way Street. There Are Sharp PullBacks In Between, Lasting 3-4 Months. The Maximum Damage Is Inflicted In last 3-6 Months Of Correction. However, We Have Already Seen Much Damage In Smallcap Space. Now Last Part. Where Does These Corrections End?

Well, Looking At Data On All World Indices Bear Market & Our Own Market, These Corrections Run Till 10 year Average Price On Index. Converting That To Quarterly Charts, It Comes To 40 Quarter SMA. Below SENSEX Chart For Same. 2000-2001 & 2008-09 Correction Ran Till Those Levels-6



Currently , That Level on Sensex is 23400 & 7000 On Nifty. As Time Progress, These SMA Rise. Considering That, I am Expecting Correction To Run Till Nifty 7000-8000 & Sensex 25000-30000. Now This Is Hypothesis & May Turn Wrong Too . Accept or Reject At Your Discretion .
 

Raj232

Well-Known Member
Two portfolios made in moneycontrol of stocks suggested by TJ members in july 2014. look what happened with four years bull market . most of the popular stocks of that time are dead now.

In this only money enhancing stocks are Indusind bank 3x, maruti 3x, sterlite techno 6x, Johnson control 4x, sonata 3x, VIP 4x, waterbase 3x.
@TraderRavi : Sirji, you have got tyhe prices of 2014 and now.. but it is not adjusted for split / dividend etc.
e.g. ICICIBANK was 1471 (in 2014) and 307.3 (now) but .. open the charting software where the proce is adjusted and you will see that we are still at still higher than the 2014 levels. :)
 

TraderRavi

low risk profile
@TraderRavi : Sirji, you have got tyhe prices of 2014 and now.. but it is not adjusted for split / dividend etc.
e.g. ICICIBANK was 1471 (in 2014) and 307.3 (now) but .. open the charting software where the proce is adjusted and you will see that we are still at still higher than the 2014 levels. :)
that site sud have adjusted splits etc. in portfolio value. but still most are dead now, shilpi cable, amtek auto and many other became penny stocks. suzlon, unitech, Educomp and JPassociate also wealth destroyer stocks.
 
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Raj232

Well-Known Member
already crude script is showing signs of recovery (retracement)
@pannet1 : Bro.. I know you are a good programmer .. have you tried auto trading in crude ?
maybe if we can work on an open source platform : on the basis of below example... ?

Others are also invited to have a peek and maybe get some side money from 5 PM to 11 PM :)

 

vikas2131

Well-Known Member
I've tried to review 23 corrections since Jan 2002 (excluding 2008-09) to find what kind of patterns exist in a correction and can we make any judgments from this history of corrections. So, Lets see what comes out of this.

#1
Every correction > 10% since Jan 2002 is included in this analysis. Some of these corrections could also be corrections within a longer down trend. Some key analysis parameters are: 1. Speed of Decline 2. Duration of Decline 3. Types of Candles in the Decline (Weekly Charts)

#2
4. Where did the correction start? 5. Max. no. of consecutive Reds 6. Where did the corrections end? 7. Was there any intra-correction consolidation of between 2 - 4 weeks? 8. No. of weeks to previous high 9. Where did the subsequent rally end? 10. RSI Tops and RSI Bottoms

#3
There are broadly 3 types of corrections: a. Fast & Brutal -> Straight-line corrections lasting between 4 - 6 weeks. Speed of decline is astonishingly high with a median decline of 2.7% per week. Make up 40% of all corrections of >10%. Rarely have > 1 green week per correction

#4.
These types of corrections tend to happen in primarily bullish markets and esp. from ATHs. In a nutshell, The Sep 2018 is the most common type of correction seen by the NIFTY.

#5
The second type of corrections are what I'd call the "Unsure corrections". Unlike "Fast and Brutal", the duration is closer to 8 - 10 weeks but the speed is considerably slower at a median speed of 1.61% per week. The ranges are approx. same as "Fast and Brutal" corrections.

#6
These corrections tend to have a more balanced ratio of Red & Green candles going up to 50% in one or two cases. 5 / 23 corrections fall in this category. These corrections (just like the previous one) don't have any kind of intra-correction consolidation of >= 2 Weeks.

#7
The 3rd and final type of corrections are the true bear market corrections. Individually, these corrections have lasted anywhere between 11 - 22 weeks but are almost part of a larger bear market. Median speed of decline is < 1% per week.

#8
Such corrections, almost always, have intra-correction consolidation of between 2- 4 weeks.

#9
With the context set, Lets look at the current correction (Sep 2018): a. 8th fastest correction. b. 16th in terms of price damage. (Median price damage is 13.55% and current is 12.78%) c. Fell from the 4th highest RSI Level (77.1)

#10
d. Second fastest in terms of RSI Decline (7.04 per week) e. Almost all of these corrections had individual weeks with declines of >= 4%. Sometimes more than one such week. f. No "Fast and Brutal" correction has lasted more than six weeks

#11
At the end of every single one of the 22 corrections (excluding current one), NIFTY rallied to near or beyond the +0.5 SD to +1 SD Weekly BB. This range today is 11264 - 11454. Please note this is dynamic and subject to change.

#12
13 of 22 times, the previous high was reached in a lesser number of weeks as compared to the correction. 17 of 22 times, the post-correction rally ended at a new Swing High or an ATH.

#13
Where do we go from here? Scenario One: a. This is a "fast and Brutal" correction. In that case, the highest probability is that either the low has been made or will be made next week (difficult to time). There is a high-probability that this can happen.

#14
Scenario Two: This turns into a bear-market correction and becomes a part of the larger correction. Even in that case, the brutal part of the fall should be mostly done.

#15
IF this is a bear market, the speed of decline has to dramatically reduce from 2.12% per week to <1% per week. For this to happen significant consolidation has to happen. What shape can the consolidation take?

#16
A rise to near the -0.5 SD Weekly BB to 20WSMA (currently @ 10885 - 11074) is a very good probability. What kind of correction is this? We'll know only when and where the rally post the correction ends.
 

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