Daily Market Analysis and News From NordFX

#91
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank believe that the current situation resembles 2002-2007, when the USD index was going down. According to their analysts, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
But Morgan Stanley experts have the opposite opinion. They believe that current events are more like the 1980s and 1990s, when the dollar strengthened in the face of a large current account deficit. And now this deficit in relation to GDP is the highest since 2008. This is due to the fact that, due to the QE programs, imports to the United States are growing faster than exports. But the DXY dollar index bulls hope that the outpacing dynamics of the US economy compared to the European and global ones will stir up investor interest in the US currency and other assets.
50% of analysts agree with this point of view in the short term, expecting the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.1985-1.2000 zone. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. 30% of experts vote for the continuation of the sideways trend in channel 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% support the breakdown of the upper border of this channel and the growth of the pair to this year's high 1.2350.
It should be noted that when moving from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar and the decline of the pair increases from 50% to 70%.
There is a complete discord among the oscillators on H4. D1 is still dominated by green. There are 50% of such oscillators, another 25% are colored red and the remaining 25% are colored neutral gray. Most trend indicators on D1 (75%) point north.
A lot of important economic information is expected in the coming week. We are expecting the publication of data on the consumer market in Germany on Monday, May 31, and there will be similar statistics for the Eurozone as a whole the next day, on Tuesday. Also, there will be information on ISM's business activity in the US manufacturing sector on June 1.
German retail sales data will be released on Wednesday June 2. The report on the level of employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the US service sector will be released on Thursday, June 3. And there will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and, traditionally, on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) at the very end of the working week, on June 4;

- GBP/USD. Some of the experts (60% of them) have considered the statement of Gertjan Vlieghe regarding the increase in interest rates quite specific and, on this basis, expect that the pound will renew its 36-month high at 1.4240 in the near future. In support of their forecast, they remind that the Bank of England improved its forecast regarding the pace of economic recovery in early May, and that the economy should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year.
Other analysts (40%), on the contrary, believe that everything looks rather vague, that the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and that a lot can happen during this time. In general, it's too early to rejoice. Especially since they do not sleep overseas either. Therefore, this part of the experts stakes on the dollar and expects the GBP/USD pair to fall. The nearest support levels are 1.4175, 1.4135 and 1.4100. The target is 1.4000.
Technical indicators still side with the bulls. There are 75% of those among the oscillators on D1, 95% among the trend indicators. Graphical analysis shows a downward rebound from resistance 1.4240 and a fall to support 1.4000.
As for the events of the week, two speeches of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on June 1 and 3 can be noted, during which investors will wait for new promises to raise interest rates. Also of interest is the hearing of the UK inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday June 3;

- USD/JPY. The technical analysis readings for this pair could be called GreenPeace. 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are colored green. The bullish sentiment is also supported by 60% of the experts. The nearest resistance is at 110.00, target No. 1 is the high of the previous week at 110.20, target No. 2 is the renewal of the 21-week high at 110.95.
40% of analysts side with the bears, who expect the pair to return to the channel 108.55-109.75. In case of a breakdown of its lower border, the next target is 107.50;

- cryptocurrencies. - According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.
Glassnode data, which indicate a build-up of long-term positions in bitcoin by whales, as well as an outflow of large investors from OTC markets, also confirm Rubinstein’s words. This may indicate another phase of asset accumulation after a deep drawdown, which prevented bitcoin, and after it, the entire cryptocurrency market, from going into a real free fall.
Many influencers are also filled with optimism. The investment company Ark Invest general director Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is, a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.
The future of ethereum is seen even more rosy, according to some experts, . Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions. Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.
And some statistics at the end of the review. The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency turns out to be more recognizable than ethereum among US citizens, perhaps thanks to Elon Musk. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Digital assets as a get-rich-quick scheme are considered by 23%, and almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
#92
CryptoNews


- The strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has not ruled out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency, Yahoo Finance writes. “We stated previously that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. This has probably become a significant driver of the current correction," the expert says.
In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000. He has also expressed the opinion that the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels.
“There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is an obstacle to institutional acceptance of the cryptocurrency markets and, in particular, bitcoin and Ethereum,” the expert explains. - The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors. It makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold. "

- Footage on the 16th film from the black-and-white film "Alien Autopsy", which allegedly depicts the corpse of an alien on the operating table, will be sold at the Rarible online auction. The starting price of the lot is 450 WETH (over $1,215,000 at the time of writing).
The 17-minute film focuses on the Roswell Incident, an alleged UFO crash near the American city of Roswell in New Mexico in July 1947. Conspiracy theorists believe that the US government then captured an alien on board the UFO.
The author of the film, a London entrepreneur Ray Santilli, stated that the film used real footage of an alien autopsy, which was allegedly provided to him by a retired military operator on terms of anonymity. However, there are also those who consider this film to be fake.
For reference: the WETH cryptocurrency is an Ethereum conversion and cannot be mined. The WETH rate is pegged to the ETH rate at a 1 to 1 ratio.

- Paypal is going to allow its clients to withdraw cryptocurrencies to external wallets. “The stored coins cannot be transferred to other users or withdrawn from Paypal accounts at the moment, but we are working to ensure that the corresponding option appears. The demand for cryptocurrency transactions has shown that the industry has a huge number of adherents who are ready to settle in digital assets or just buy them. Because of this, the appropriate option has become a necessity,” Paypal representatives say.

- The creator of the Cardano cryptocurrency and former Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson has named central banks slow, inefficient and thoroughly corrupt. In his opinion, traditional finance is a "frustration industry" and cryptocurrencies are the "antidote" to "this broken financial network."
The specialist emphasized that the growth of the world's population made the markets large and unmanageable, and innovations too difficult to implement. In his opinion, it is only cryptocurrencies that can cope with these problems.

- Max Kaiser, aTV presenter and founder of Heisenberg Capital, expects the bitcoin price to rise 500% in the second half of 2021 to reach $220,000. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said. In his opinion, the policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and the inflation of the US dollar stimulate the strengthening of the first cryptocurrency.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. “I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,” he explains.

- While searching for a marijuana farm, police in the West Midlands County in Western England, discovered another farm, for mining cryptocurrencies, which had stolen electricity "worth thousands of pounds."
With the help of a drone, law enforcement officers noticed increased thermal activity near the local industrial zone. The police also found out that the territory is regularly visited by "suspicious persons". Assuming they had found a marijuana plantation, they received a search warrant, but instead of drugs, they found about a hundred computers. “This is not at all what we expected,” Police Sergeant Jennifer Griffin admitted.

- The founder of the Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, believes that no amount of regulatory action can destroy bitcoin and the blockchain. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people," he said.
According to Zhao, the fight against cryptocurrencies is reminiscent of the situation when the trading giant Amazon went online, and many were reluctant to embrace its business model. Cryptocurrencies were not created to "kill" traditional finance and government currencies. This is just a new tool for expanding financial freedom around the world. Therefore, it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them.
This statement, according to a number of observers, is due to the fact that regulators began to pay increased attention to Binance.

- Despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. Analysts of the American company Fundstrat have come to this conclusion, having studied the chart of the first cryptocurrency. In their opinion, the “inverted head and shoulders” pattern may indicate a further recovery in quotes.
Earlier, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $100,000 this year, and of Ethereum - $10,000.

- The team of analytical company Glassnode has noted that the number of Ethereum wallets containing 0.01 ETH or more reached a record level of 15.71 million addresses. Such a large number is indicative of two things. First, the Ethereum ecosystem is growing and more users are joining the network to operate on various DeFi platforms or using ETH to pay in transactions with ERC-20 tokens. Second, it could mean that more retail investors are hoarding Ethereum on a long-term basis. They have blocked more than $12 billion tokens in the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract so far.
Experts note that, despite the current price correction, the share of Ethereum in the total crypto market capitalization continues to increase, confidently moving towards 18%.

- A well-known cryptanalyst known as PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, told his 517,300 subscribers that he considers his investment in BTC as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. “So what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at between $30,000 and $ 35,000, which they bought in April at between $55,000 and $60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. The good news is that this 1 million bitcoin is in strong hands right now."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
#93
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 07 - 11, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. When giving their forecast for the previous week, 50% of analysts expected the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.2000 area, 30% voted for the continuation of the sideways trend in the channel, 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% supported the breakdown of the upper boundary of this channel.
The pair did go up at the beginning of the week, and it almost came close to the upper border of the channel on Tuesday June 01, reaching the height of 1.2255. The bulls got strength by the positive data on the Eurozone consumer market. However, this was not enough to continue the momentum, and the ISM PMI in the US manufacturing sector, which also turned out to be "green", turned the pair down. The dollar strengthened even more on Thursday June 03 after the release of strong statistics on the US labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits updated the post-pandemic low for the fifth time in a row, falling to 385 thousand. And the employment rate in the private sector from ADP increased by 978 thousand, which is the highest level in almost a year. As a result, the DXY dollar index jumped 0.66%, adding 60 points and returning to the levels of the middle of last month, while the EUR/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to 1.2103.
The market froze in anticipation of data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP), which is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month. But it was this data that disappointed those who were expecting further strengthening of the dollar: the figure was 599K instead of the expected 650K. As a result, the pair returned to the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 almost immediately and completed the five-day period at 1.2165;

-GBP/USD. A manager of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. This statement made the bulls hope that the pound will soon renew its 36-month high at 1.4240. But the bears decided that it was too early to rejoice, the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and a lot can happen during this time. And then, strong data on the US labor market came out on June 03, and disappointing data on June 04.
In general, just like EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair swayed on the waves of multidirectional news and finished within the three-week sideways corridor 1.4075-1.4220, placing the final chord in the 1.4165 zone;

- USD/JPY. We called the technical analysis readings for this pair Greenpeace In the previous forecast - green dominated there so powerfully. 60% of the experts supported the bullish sentiment then and made no mistake. Along with the growth of the DXY dollar index and the yield of US Treasuries, the pair renewed the high of the last two months at 110.20 by Thursday June 03 and climbed to a high of 110.32. But then, due to the NFP data, it came under strong bearish pressure and ended the week trading session at 109.50;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin skyrocketed to its highest point of $64,595 per BTC On April 14. On that day, June futures showed an even higher price, $66,450. And then came May. Thanks to the efforts of Elon Musk and Chinese regulators, bitcoin has lost half of its value, and spent the last two and a half weeks on consolidation in the area of $36,000-37,000.
Usually, such a consolidation is followed by an impressive leap forward. But in which direction: to the north or to the south? Everything that is happening suggests that it makes no sense to make forecasts based on technical analysis here. Even guessing by stars or coffee grounds can lead to more accurate results. The market is ruled by COVID-19, regulators and influencers.
Modern corporate culture, among other things, involves following environmental trends. This is exactly what one of the main influencers, the aforementioned Elon Musk, does. He, by the way, continues to influence investors with his tweets. So last week, he burst into vague speculations about whether Tesla could permanently abandon bitcoin, and thereby put an end to the hopes of bulls to break through the $40,000 level.
It's complicated with regulators, too. We talked in detail in previous reviews about the position of Beijing, which decisively indicated cryptocurrencies to leave. And Pascal Blanc, a top manager at Amundi, one of the largest asset management companies, supported the move, saying that cryptocurrencies are "farce" and "bubbles" and that governments and regulators will eventually "stop this music."
However, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB do not particularly interfere in the game of the "crypto orchestra", do not impose bans and sanctions on market participants, but are limited to observing what is happening. Their calmness serves as an example for other, less significant regulators, who also believe that the there is no sufficient accumulated experience yet to make sudden movements. For example, Norwegian Finance Minister Jan Thor Sanner said that people should have a choice of whether to invest their funds in bitcoins or other assets. Of course, provided that this process is properly regulated.
Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the Binance exchange, agrees with the Norwegian minister. He thinks it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them. No amount of regulatory action will be able to destroy bitcoin and blockchain, Changpeng Zhao said. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people,".
Indeed, the crypto market has become more global, not only small traders and investors are involved in it now, but the world's largest banks, investment funds and payment systems. And bitcoin itself was created in order to bypass various prohibitions and barriers. So, for example, Chinese traders and miners can transfer their activity to another jurisdiction. And it remains to be seen whether China itself will benefit from this.
In general, we will wait and see. In the meantime, as already mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is consolidating in the $36,000-37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index calmed down as well, rising by only 6 points in a week, from 21 to 27. But the Dominance Index went down smoothly again, dropping from 43.11% to 41.7% of the total crypto market capitalization, which was $1.663 trillion as of the evening of June 04.

continued below...
 
#94
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The EUR/USD pair has been holding in the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 For the third week in a row and attempts to break it to either side do not succeed. Therefore, if we sum up the readings of technical indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, we get a neutral gray color.
As for macroeconomic factors, the data indicate a continuing recovery in the US labor market. And the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP) in May, although less than expected, is still twice higher than in April.
60% of experts believe that strong data on the labor market may persuade the Fed to reduce earlier bond buybacks and curtail QE programs. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds and strengthen the position of the USD. Warm summer weather, a large number of people vaccinated against COID-19, as well as the lifting of quarantine restrictions are cited as additional arguments.
However, Europe is not standing still either, as the remaining 40% of analysts say, so the strengthening of the dollar - if it happens, of course - may be temporary. According to these experts, the current improvement in the situation on the US labor market fits well into the Fed's plan and is not at all a reason for tightening economic policy and raising interest rates. Without this, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
The nearest target of the bears is the zone 1.1985-1.2000, the support levels on the way to it are 1.2135, 1.2100 and 1.2060. The bulls are still aiming to break the upper border of the 1.2265 channel and the pair to rise to this year's high of 1.2350.
As for the events of the coming week, the following should be noted: the release of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday June 08, and the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate (forecast - unchanged, at 0%) the next day, June 10, as well as the comments of the ECB on monetary policy. Also, the leaders of the G7 countries will meet on Friday 11 June and Saturday 12 June. The event, of course, is important, however, is not worth waiting for an instant reaction to it;

- GBP/USD. The three-week sideways trend also affected the forecast of experts on the British currency: 35% of them vote for the pair's movement to the north, 35% look to the south, and 30% point to the east. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening grows to 55%.
Graphical analysis draws the following picture until the end of June: first, the pair declines to support 1.4000, then a local low follows in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone and the pair returns to the 1.4200-1.4220 zone. Oscillators give multidirectional signals, while trend indicators are mostly colored green. These are 85% on H4, 95% on D1;

- USD/JPY. Technical indicators give chaotic readings for this pair. Only in trend indicators on D1 do greens still have a clear 75% advantage.
Graphical analysis forecasts are also controversial. It expects first a decline to the level of 109.00, and then a fall to the May lows in the region of 108.35 on H4. On D1, the forecast is the opposite: renewal of the March 31 high, 110.95. Resistances along the way are 109.70, 110.00 and 110.30.
The green summer season continues among analysts. The overwhelming majority (75%) expect the pair to grow, the remaining 25% look down.
Perhaps the yen's positions will be supported by the GDP data for the first quarter of 2021, which will be published by the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers on Tuesday, June 08. According to forecasts, the fall in GDP may slow down from minus 1.3% to minus 1.2%, which will indicate the possibility of the country's economy coming out of the recession;

- cryptocurrencies. Let us start with a pessimistic view of the future. According to Yahoo Finance, the strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou did not rule out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency. We stated previously, he says, that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. According to the expert, the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels. In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.
“There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is a barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies,” explains the JPMorgan strategist. "The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors, and makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold."
Unlike Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, TV host and founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Kaiser, is optimistic and expects the bitcoin price to hit $220,000 in the second half of 2021. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. “I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,” he explains.
The growth of the BTC/USD pair is also predicted by analysts of the American company Fundstrat. They came to this conclusion after studying the patterns on the chart of the first cryptocurrency rate. According to them, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. At the same time, it should be recalled that the co-founder of Fundstrat Tom Lee said earlier that the BTC rate could exceed the level of $100,000 this year, and the ethereum rate - $10,000.
But the cryptanalyst PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, turns out to be a fatalist. He informed his 517,300 followers that he considers his BTC investment as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. “So, what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at $30,000-35,000, which they bought in April at $ 55,000-60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. Good news: these 1 million bitcoins are now in strong hands,” PlanB summed up their assessment of the situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
#95
May Results: NordFX Trader Earns Over $50,000 on Bitcoin Collapse


NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in May 2021. The total income of the three most efficient of them exceeded 175 thousand USD.

The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from China, account No.1546xxx, whose profit amounted to USD 81,648. This solid result was achieved on transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD), gold (XAU/USD) and euro (EUR/USD).

The second step of the podium with a result of 53,207 USD was taken by a representative of Vietnam, account No.1416xxx, who showed how to make money during market crashes. Their profit was mainly obtained from transactions with bitcoin (BTC/USD), the quotes of which fell by about 40% over the month.

The third place is a trader from Indonesia, account No.1506xxx, who earned 41,799 USD in May on gold transactions (XAU/USD).

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal -The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 45,000 USD in it.
- in the PAMM service, the same trader, KennyFXPRO, also shows a good result, which may be interesting for investors who prefer moderate earnings with moderate risks. This manager has seen a 24% capital gain since the end of January with a maximum drawdown of 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission of the month amounting to 6,568 USD was credited to a partner from India, account 1527xxx;
- the second place is a partner from China, account No. 1522xxx, who received 4,146 USD;
- and another Indian partner closes the top three, account No.1229xxx, with earnings of 3.975 USD.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
#96
CryptoNews of the Week


- Tesla and SpaceX owner Elon Musk received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It says that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, their dreams collapsed due to Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention.
The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".

- Goldman Sachs bank experts have downgraded the "rating" of bitcoin from "gold" to "copper". According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.

- The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars. "

- The MIT students who participated in the bitcoin research spent the cryptocurrency they had been given on textbooks and food. As Bloomberg calculated, they missed ... 13,000% of their profits.
In 2014, Bitcoin Core developer Jeremy Rubin and Nascent co-founder Dan Elitzer, while students at the university, launched the MIT Bitcoin Project. Each project participant received $100 in the first cryptocurrency (0.3 BTC at the exchange rate at that time) in order to create an ecosystem of digital currencies on campus.
More than 3,100 students joined the study. Every tenth student got rid of cryptocurrency in the first two weeks, and by mid-2017, every fourth student had converted it to fiat and used it for purchases and other expenses. The participants in the experiment spent digital gold mainly in the campus bookstore. They also bought beer and ordered food.
The rest kept the coins in their wallets, expecting further growth in their value. One of the project participants said that she wanted to spend bitcoins on a T-shirt that cost $35, but abandoned her idea, and did the right thing: the price of these coins exceeds $4,000 now.

- Billionaire Mark Lasry, founder of Avenue Capital Management, said bitcoin's explosive growth in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. He also expressed regret that he had not invested enough in the first cryptocurrency.
Commenting on his previous forecast regarding the rise in the price of the coin to $40,000, the investor noted that the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere. For this reason, I became interested in bitcoin. I thought that with the arrival of institutional investors, the price would start to rise,” he added.
At the same time, Lasry stressed that any movement of digital gold can be explained: “To be honest, I do not know where bitcoin is going. I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."

- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028. Accredited investors will become buyers of securities. The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth over $3.37 billion so far.

- Against the background of the market correction, bitcoin whales have increased their positions, and large Ethereum wallets continue to hold assets. Analysts of Santiment came to such conclusions.
According to the company, the number of bitcoin addresses with balances from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC has been growing steadily for two and a half weeks. “It seems that whales are buying confidently on the fall,” the experts concluded.
As for the addresses holding 1,000-100,000 ETH, their number practically does not change during the period when the asset fluctuates in the range of $2,000- $2,500. “This group of investors is still holding on to the huge number of tokens that they have been accumulating at a rapid pace since last October,” the experts note.
The NVT indicator (a tool for identifying bubbles in the cryptocurrency market) indicates the continued bearish sentiment for the first cryptocurrency. The NVT confirms investor bearish sentiment for Ethereum as well, for the first time since April 2020.

- The American company Progressive Care began accepting bitcoin as payment for rapid tests for COVID-19. The service is available in PharmcoRx pharmacies, and one can pay for tests through a QR code.
The company stressed that they believe in the future of the blockchain and want to provide an opportunity for testing for coronavirus "to those who have an alternative view of payment systems."

- The Kalashnikov Concern, which produces the well-known AK-47 machine, would like to abandon the international payment system SWIFT and switch to using digital currencies. Such an unexpected statement was made by a rock singer, former Deputy Minister of Transport of Russia, and now the owner of the concern, Alan Lushnikov. “We really need it,” he said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
According to him, this alternative system is not tied to SWIFT and is not controlled by banks. For this reason, the company is less interested in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).


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#97
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 14 - 18, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The key day last week was Thursday, June 10. There were two important events on the day: the European Central Bank meeting and the release of US consumer market data. Now let's talk about everything in order.
The ECB raised its forecasts for Eurozone GDP from 4.0% to 4.6% for 2021 and from 4.1% to 4.7% for 2022. Inflation is expected to rise by 1.9% this year and 1.5% next year (the previous forecast was 1.5% and 1.2% respectively). At the same time, the pace of economic recovery has not particularly impressed Ms. Lagarde, especially as it is lagging seriously behind the US. The ECB chief also considers the jump in inflation a temporary phenomenon. While prices may continue to rise in 2021 Q3 and Q4, they should go down as the “temporary factors disappear.” So, the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone, she believes, will remain below target “throughout the forecast horizon.”
As a result, the result of the ECB meeting was... no result. Despite the debate, the Bank's Governing Board has not made any decisions regarding the winding down of QE, leaving the current stimulus measures in place. The interest rate on the euro was also unchanged, at 0%. But it was because of such passivity that Ms. Lagarde succeeded in achieving what she wanted: keeping the euro from rising.
And now about the second event on Thursday - the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI). It was just that, according to the reaction of the market, it resembled the moment when the regulator announced new interest rates. The CPI figures turned out to be much higher than forecasted, showing the fastest rise in consumer prices in the United States in more than 12 years.
Such a rise in inflation could scare investors, however, exactly the opposite happened: the S&P500 index updated another high, reaching 4250 (against 4244 exactly a month ago), and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to a 3-month low.
As for the EUR/USD pair, this is where the bears won. Their logic was as follows: the ECB postponed the decision to roll back QE in Europe, but in the US, a jump in inflation could push the Fed to take some real steps in this direction. And some goals are likely to be identified at the next meeting of the regulator next Wednesday, June 16. This expectation of tightening monetary policy has driven the dollar higher. Additional strength for the bears was given by the growth of the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA, which was published on June 11. As a result, the dollar won back about 100 points from the euro, and the EUR/USD pair finished just below the lower border of the four-week side channel 1.2125-1.2265, at around 1.2108;

- GBP/USD. The statistics from the USA pushing the pair down was mentioned above. As for the UK's performance, it's not all that simple. Data released on Thursday June 10 supported the pound, showing a sharp rise in the Manufacturing PMI, which indicated a strengthening of industrial production and trade in the UK. However, another package of macro-statistics, published the next day, aroused caution among investors.
The center of the British economic recovery has shifted from manufacturing and the housing market to the service sector. Here, thanks to vaccinations and the easing of quarantine measures, activity has increased and even exceeded forecasts. But the figures were not so rosy in other sectors of the economy.
Construction volumes declined by 2%, while industrial production for April fell 1.3%. When compared to the same period in 2020, it added 27.5% during that time. It would seem that the growth is evident. But, according to a number of experts, there is nothing much to be happy about. If we compare the absolute values, they are 3% lower than the levels of February 2020 and 6.5% below the local peak in March 2019. And this speaks of the stagnation of the sector, which, apparently, was provoked not only by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by Brexit.
These multidirectional statistics resulted in the GBP/USD pair failing to reach beyond the 1.4075-1.4220 side channel, along which it was drifting for the fourth week, and put the last point at 1.4115;

- USD/JPY. Having started the five-day period at 109.50, the pair completed it at 109.70. At the same time, it was below these levels almost all the time, bouncing over and over again from the support in the area of 109.18-109.30. However, thanks to strong statistics from the US, the pair managed to climb to the height of 109.85 at the end of the week. But even taking into account this spurt, the weekly fluctuation range of 45 points looks more than modest;

- cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is calm. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $36,000-37,000 for the third week in a row. An attempt by the bears on to turn quotes downward June 8 ended in failure: the lowest point they managed to reach was $31.065. Having stayed there for only a few minutes, the BTC/USD pair turned around, climbed to $38.325, and then went back to the consolidation area.
Elon Musk is back in the news of the week, which could somehow influence the market sentiment. The owner of Tesla and SpaceX received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It states that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, and their dreams were shattered by Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention. The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".
Another newsmaker, analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028. The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth more than $3.37 billion.. And if you study the history of its crypto assets’ replenishment, it becomes obvious that the company is moving towards averaging its position in the market. And this happens due to borrowed funds.
Averaging is considered a rather risky investment method. For those who don't know, we'll explain in a simple example. Averaging is when you buy 3 BTC: the first one for $5,000, then you buy the second one for $20,000, and the third one for $35,000. The average price of 1 coin in this case will be equal to $20,000 ($ 60,000/3). And if quotes fall below this level, you will be at a loss. This is why some experts believe MicroStrategy has embarked on a "journey on thin ice."
At the time of writing the forecast, the BTC/USD pair is in the $37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as well as the coin itself, demonstrates "consolidation": it was equal to 21 points on May 28, 27 on June 04, and again 21 points on June 11, which corresponds to the average Fear indicator.
Among the 10,332 existing cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, despite its decline in its share in the total crypto market capitalization, still leads by a huge margin. Its dominance index is 44.03% at the moment. The capitalization of the entire digital currency market fell from $1.663 trillion to $1.585 trillion over the week.

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#98
As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, the Governing Council of the ECB has not made any decision regarding the winding down of the quantitative (QE) program. But the Fed can discuss this issue at its meeting on Wednesday, June 16, and, as a result, publish a "road map". If not publish a detailed road map, then at least indicate its certain stages. And if this happens, we can expect a rapid rise in the dollar and a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.2000. The next support is 1.1945, then the zone 1.1880-1.1900.
If the Fed gets off with general phrases that the rise in inflation and the current improvement in the US labor market are not at all a reason for tightening economic policy again, then the pair may return to the upper border of the 1.2125-1.2265 channel. The next target for the bulls is the growth of the pair to this year's high of 1.2350.
So, all the market's attention is now focused on this event. And analysts avoid any predictions until it's over. Graphical analysis is in disarray as well. Among the trend indicators, 55% are colored red on D1, and 100% on H4. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 60% of them are looking down on both time frames, 20% have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 20% are signaling that the pair is oversold.
In addition to the Fed meeting and comments on June 16, other events of the week include the release of statistics on the German consumer market and on retail sales in the United States. Both numbers will be released on Tuesday June 15;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England now faces a difficult choice of which way to go further: to support economic growth by continuing fiscal stimulus programs, or to start fighting inflation and prices that have already exceeded pre-Covid levels.
If you look at the ECB and the Fed, they have preferred the first option so far, postponing the second one for later. The renewed trend towards the stagnation of the UK manufacturing sector indicates that the Bank of England should follow the example of its colleagues. Especially since the country's coronavirus curve has moved up sharply again, and there is increasing discussion about moving the full abolition of the quarantine restrictions scheduled for June 21.
If this happens, the pound will be under strong pressure. However, there will be June 16 before June 21, when the Fed meeting will take place - the key event of the week for almost all dollar pairs. As in the case of EUR/USD, expert opinions are now almost impossible to be brought to any common denominator. Graphical analysis also indicates the continuation of the pair's sideways movement in the coming days within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. Oscillators on both timeframes give multidirectional signals, although the red ones have a slight advantage here. The trend indicators on D1 are split evenly: 50% pointing north, 50% pointing south. And it is only among the trend indicators on H4 that there is an overwhelming majority: 85% of them are colored red.
The targets of the bears: 1.4075, 1.4000, then the low in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone. The bulls' targets: 1.4185-1.4225 and 1.4250, having reached which, they will then try to break through the resistance of 1.4300 and refresh the 2018 highs.
Among the important events of the coming week: the release of UK labour market statistics and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday June 15, as well as data on the country's consumer market on Wednesday June 16;

- USD/JPY. Giving a weekly forecast, the majority of experts (60%) vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. Graphical analysis and 65% of oscillators on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with them.

The remaining 40% of analysts, along with graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to decline to support at 108.00-108.35. The next strong support is at 107.50.
When switching to the monthly forecast, the picture changes in a mirror-like manner: here it is already 60% that side with the bears. 40% remain on the side of the bulls, with only half of them believing that the pair will be able to rise above 111.00 and renew the March 31 high.
As for the events of the next week, one could note the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the subsequent press conference. However, the likelihood that the bank's monetary policy will undergo changes that could seriously affect market sentiment is close to zero;

- cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs experts have downgraded bitcoin's rating from gold to copper. According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.
The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars."
The forecast (or rather, its absence) by another billionaire, the founder of Avenue Capital Management Mark Lasry, seems to be much more mundane. According to him, the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it, and the rapid growth of bitcoin in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. That being said, “to be honest, I don't know where bitcoin is heading,” Larsy admitted. "I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."
And it is difficult to argue with him about this. At least in the current situation, any movement of digital gold can be justified. Suffice it to recall two authoritative predictions:
: of the American company Fundstrat analysts, according to which, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future,
- and of the JPMorgan financial holding strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.

***
And in conclusion, our traditional, albeit irregular, section of crypto life hacks. True, it applies not only to cryptocurrencies, but also to fiat this week. We are talking about the opportunity to top up your budget with a fairly round amount by taking part in the lottery held by the NordFX broker. There are a total of 100 prizes to be won for a total of $100,000. And the first draft will take place in two weeks, on July 1, so you may well have time to become a participant. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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#99
CryptoNews of the Week


- According to Coingecko, bitcoin is up 12% on the back of another tweet by Elon Musk. Tesla's owner said the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy.
The tweet was a response to criticism from Magda Wierzycka, the head of Sygnia finance company. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Musk called the words of the head of Sygnia inaccurate and recalled that the electric car manufacturer sold only 10% of its bitcoins to test the liquidity of the market.

- Venture capitalist and billionaire Tim Draper predicted in 2018 the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022 and called the blockchain one of the most outstanding inventions in human history. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations.
The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold. “Give it [bitcoin] about a year and a half and all retailers will use OpenNode,” the investor said. As a reminder, OpenNode is a bitcoin payment processor created by a group of enthusiasts, in the development of which Tim Draper invested $1.25 mln.

- Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. He said the occasion was reports of the arrest of a 17-year-old for using digital assets.
Local media reported in May that Tunisian law enforcement had allegedly accused the young man of money laundering. The incident sparked outrage in the cryptocurrency community: some of its participants expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of clarity in the regulation of the industry.

- Tudor Investment hedge fund trader and founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that he would channel 5% of his capital into bitcoin. He is convinced that the first cryptocurrency contributes to the diversification of the investment portfolio through “embedded mathematics.”
The billionaire currently reserves 5% each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. It will determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent surge in consumer prices. In his view, it was of a “very significant” character.
“For me, the first cryptocurrency is just a way to look fundamentally at how I protect my wealth over time. This is a great opportunity for diversification, for preserving capital, the billionaire explained. "If they [the Fed] say, "We are on the trajectory [of a temporary increase in inflation], everything is fine," then I’ll go all-in.”

- El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele proposed a "bitcoin law" to parliament last week. Cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment, unless they are located in rural areas with no internet access. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
And now Bukele has come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine Bitcoin using volcanic energy. “Very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable energy with zero emissions. We will try to get things done quickly,” the head of state wrote on Twitter.
There are over 20 volcanoes in El Salvador, some of which are active. LaGeo is now using volcanoes to generate geothermal energy. And, for example, Genesis Mining in Iceland uses underground heat to generate electricity.

- According to the regular Millionaire Survey, 47% of wealthy millennials in the USA buy crypto assets. At the same time, 35% of them hold more than half of their investment portfolio in digital assets.
Millennials have shown greater interest in cryptocurrencies than owners of large fortunes overall. Those were only about 17%. Moreover, only every tenth of them invested more than 10% of their capital in digital assets.

- Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. Lending organizations also received the rights from the state authorities to collaborate with startups developing various services for digital assets.
It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market.

- The Netherlands should immediately impose a blanket ban on mining and bitcoin operations, Pieter Hasekamp, director of the Economic Analysis Bureau at the country's Ministry of Economy, said.
The official listed a number of reasons why the authorities need to recognize the first cryptocurrency as illegal. In his view, digital gold has no intrinsic value, and the coin itself does not perform any of the three functions of money: the unit of accounting, the means of payment and the means of accumulation.
Hasekamp mentioned security issues, fraud risks and added that digital assets are used in criminal activities. At the same time, he considers the collapse of the crypto market inevitable.

- According to the New Indian Express, India's hostile stance on bitcoin is changing to a more loyal one. The authorities now intend not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. India wants to create an alternative asset class that will include digital currencies. The regulatory framework will be created by the Securities and Exchange Council in partnership with the Ministry of Finance.


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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 21 - 25, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday June 16 was the key event of the week. No particularly significant decisions were made there: the interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%. The Federal Reserve will also continue to print money and buy back assets in the previous volume of $120 billion. But, as expected, following the meeting, the regulator's roadmap was unveiled, as a result of which the dollar bulls got what they had been waiting for.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues raised the forecast for US GDP for 2021 to 7%, and also recognized the need to discuss the process of curtailing fiscal stimulus programs (QE). The Fed has no intention of turning a blind eye to accelerating inflation to the highest marks since the 1990s. However, according to Powell, the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore it is advisable to maintain soft financial conditions for now. At each subsequent meeting, the regulator will consider reducing QE volumes. And he will set out the level of employment after which incentives can be reduced, at the next meeting on July 28.
Investors also received a signal of intent to raise interest rates earlier than expected. An averaged forecast by Fed executives showed that the rate could be gradually raised to 0.5-0.6 percent by the end of 2023. At the same time, Jerome Powell noted that vaccination has a positive effect on the labor market, and we will soon see strong employment reports. Inflation may also be stronger and more stable than central bank officials had expected. And it will require a quicker response to what is happening.
Such "hawkish" forecasts of the Federal Reserve System instantly revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Investors continued to buy USD despite weak macro statistics, thinking that the indicators will improve as the US economy recovers.
One of the major currencies that suffered last week was the euro. Europe's economy has not kept pace with America's in any way. And according to Philip Laine, the ECB's chief economist, it will be too early even in September for the regulator to begin discussing the programme of winding down QE in the Eurozone.
As a result, starting from a height of 1.2125 on June 16 and flying 280 points, EUR/USD reached the local bottom at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. The finish took place at 1.1865, in the zone where the pair returned after a 10-week absence;

- GBP/USD. If the euro fell against the dollar by 280 points, the pound ceded as much as 340 to the US currency. Positive sentiment about the UK currency is melting like fog over London after the country's prime minister, Boris Johnson, delayed the full opening of the country's businesses by a month. This is due to an increase in cases of the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. And this despite the fact that about 80% of the country's adult population has already been vaccinated with one dose of the vaccine, and 30% have been vaccinated with two doses.
The pound is also under pressure from the increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit. This is particularly true of trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Against this unjoyful backdrop, another “blow” is being struck on 16 June by the U.S. Federal Reserve management. The result is a fall of the pound to the level of 1.3790, not far from which it ends the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the past five days, the majority of experts (60%) voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. And, looking at the results of the week, they were right: starting at 109.70, the pair finished at 110.20.
It is clear that the statements of Jerome Powell and other executives of the US Federal Reserve could not but affect the behavior of the USD/JPY pair: it reached 110.80 at the high. In addition to the dollar's strengthening, weak macroeconomic statisticians from Japan have added pressure on the yen. Thus, the growth of orders for engineering products in April slowed down from + 3.7% to + 0.6%, against the forecast of 2.7%. Of course, the rate grew by 6.5% in annual terms, but still turned out to be lower than the expected 8%.
Despite this, amid the subsidence of the remaining major currencies, the Japanese currency has shown maximum resilience against the dollar. At the time when the euro, pound and other currencies continued their decline, it was, on the contrary, able to win back about 60% of the losses. The reason for this, according to a number of analysts, lies in the lower risk appetite of the market and increased investor appetite for safer assets;

- cryptocurrencies. It has long been clear that news has a fairly strong impact on cryptocurrency rates. However, much more powerful fluctuations in this market are caused by large investments. There were none of those last week. On the contrary, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization even decreased slightly, from $1.585 trillion to $1.560 trillion. So there remains news, whose source is influencers and regulators.
In terms of the former, Elon Musk was once again there with his tweets. This time, the owner of Tesla said that the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy. Bitcoin is up 12% amid this tweet, according to CoinGecko.
It is worth noting that the tweet was a response to criticism from the head of the financial company Sygnia Magda Wierzycki. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Now about the regulators, news from which comes from all over the planet. Thus, Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. The government of India has also changed its anger to the mercy for bitcoin. Now, as in Tunisia, it intends not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market.
Similar events are taking place in El Salvador. The president of this country, Nayib Bukele, has proposed a "bitcoin law" for parliamentary consideration. Under the bill, cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
Some important European officials, however, have fallen out of favor with digital assets. Thus, Peter Hasekamp, director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Dutch Ministry of Economy, said that a complete ban on mining and bitcoin transactions should be immediately imposed. In his opinion, digital gold has no intrinsic value, it is used in a criminal environment, and the collapse of the crypto market is inevitable.
But, judging by the emerging trend, Mr. Hasekamp will remain in the minority. Most regulators will try to take control of digital assets. As the great German chancellor Otto von Bismarck liked to repeat back in the 19th century, "If you cannot defeat the enemy, lead it."
Spurred on by the news and the bulls' desire to take revenge, the BTC/USD pair rallied earlier in the week, reaching $41,260 on Tuesday June 15. However, the sharp strengthening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve meeting reversed the uptrend, bringing the pair back below the $36,000 level at the end of the working week.
The Bitcoin dominance index added slightly, rising from 44.03% to 45.33%. The same thing happened with Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which went up from 21 to 25 points. Note that since the BTC/USD pair went sideways at the end of May, its values have never gone beyond the 20-40-point range.

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