Daily Market Analysis and News From NordFX

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC from $30,000 to $200,000


Throughout 2022, bitcoin has been moving along the Pivot Point around $40,000, trying to either reach $50,000 or fall to $30,000. The reason for such fluctuations, of course, is the US Federal Reserve. Investors cannot finally decide how to behave in the face of tightening monetary policy and rising dollar interest rates. As a result, their appetite for risk falls and flares up again. First of all, this applies to the stock market, along with which digital gold fluctuates as well.

We have repeatedly considered the correlation of the BTC/USD pair with the shares of technology companies. So, according to Arcane Research, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reached its high since July 2020. The same indicator between the first cryptocurrency and gold has fallen to a historic low. It is physical gold that has recently been acting as a hedge against inflation, and its price came close to its historical maximum, reaching $2.070 per ounce on March 08 (the maximum price of $2.075 was recorded on August 2, 2020).

Bitcoin-ETP (Exchange Traded Product) shows an outflow of funds. If the current pace is maintained, the historical anti-record of July 2021 will be updated by the end of the month, when investors withdrew 13,849 BTC. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin network has dropped to 15.6 million, about 30% less than the January 2021 high. Many short-term (less than 155 days) holders and speculators have already parted with their BTC holdings, according to Glassnode data.

The market is currently supported by long-term holders (LTH). As we already wrote, there has recently been a trend towards the accumulation of digital gold among them. The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. In addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation, bringing their share to 14.26% of the market supply.

At the moment, about 15% of long-term holders are losing, but they not only continue to store coins, but also acquire new ones, counting on their growth in the future. For example, analytics software provider MicroStrategy intends to “strongly pursue” its strategy and continue to build up reserves in bitcoin. This was stated by CEO Michael Saylor in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy holds 129,218 BTC worth $5.17 billion in reserves. The company's division made its last purchase of $190.5 million in early April. For comparison, Tesla, which is in second place after MicroStrategy, owns 43,200 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.

At the time of this writing, Friday evening, April 22, the total crypto market capitalization is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, at $1.850 trillion ($1.880 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slightly improved its readings: it rose from 22 to 26 points and returned from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone.

The BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,700. The chart of the past four months, with its rising highs and lows, gives investors hope for a further rise in price. However, everything will depend on the May Fed meeting and investor risk sentiment. Recall that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index. The same figure of $30,000 is also mentioned by cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe, although he points to another reason: geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe due to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.

Many other experts do not expect anything good from the BTC/USD pair in the near future either, although they build optimistic forecasts for the medium and long term. So, according to Anthony Trenchev, CEO of the Nexo crypto-landing platform, the price of the first cryptocurrency may rise above $100,000 over the next 12 months. However, he is "worried" about the short-term outlook for bitcoin. In his opinion, the rate may fall along with traditional stock markets as a result of the US Central Bank curtailing the monetary stimulus program.

Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, predicts similar dynamics of the flagship cryptocurrency. This specialist believes that bitcoin will be “much higher” than $50,000 by the end of 2022. However, he admits a sharp drop in prices in the near future. “At the moment, we are living in conditions of, I would say, global uncertainty in the markets, not only cryptocurrencies, but also stock markets,” Ardoino said.

Cryptocurrency market expert Ali Martinez analyzed the price chart of bitcoin and said that its value could fall to $27,000. It is important for the bulls to stay above the critical support level in order to prevent this from happening. According to the Fibonacci levels, this support is in the $38,530 area. If a breakdown occurs, then the rate of digital gold will fall to $32,853 or even $26,820. Like most analysts, Martinez also believes that one should not focus only on technical analysis and discard the fundamental one, since much depends on the geopolitical situation in the world now.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is confident that bitcoin is approaching "the point of choosing the direction of the trend." Cowen elaborates that this has happened before: “In 2013, bitcoin made a low, then a second, then a third, and eventually began to rise. And then in 2018, when there were higher lows, we thought that the same thing would happen as in 2013, but in the end, bitcoin fell to a new low.”

According to the analyst, in order to restore the bullish trend and reduce the likelihood of a bearish one, the BTC/USD pair needs to rise above the 200-day SMA, which is at around $47,440 at the time of writing. “If bitcoin can muster the courage to rise above its 200-day SMA and move to the $50,000 level, then that would look pretty optimistic. But what happens if the market drops to $30,000 and then bitcoin goes up again? There's a good chance we'll get back to $40,000 or maybe $43,000,” said Benjamin Cowen.

Most likely, the prospect of the return of the flagship cryptocurrency from $30,000 back to $40,000 in the current situation will not please investors very much, since the coin is currently trading in the region of $40,000. Therefore, to cheer them up, we will quote another specialist, Nicholas Merten from DataDash, who believes that BTC can set new record highs as early as next year. According to him, the bulls still have not lost control despite the current market fluctuations: “The market is currently far from impressing investors, but this situation is always observed during the beginning of accumulation. This is how the structure of the trend begins to form.”

According to Merten, the fact that bitcoin has begun to make higher lows and higher highs confirms that the bulls are at the helm, no matter how things look at the moment. The analyst believes that since this situation persists, then the BTC rate has every chance of reaching $150,000 and even $200,000 within the next year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week


- The financial company Fidelity Investments plans to provide customers with the opportunity to accumulate bitcoins on pension savings. The Wall Street Journal writes about it. The option will become available this summer to employees of the 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans. The addition of other cryptocurrencies is not ruled out in the future, but the share of digital assets in the portfolio should not exceed 20%.

- The innovative strategy of using bitcoin as the main reserve asset will bring a “bright future” to the software provider MicroStrategy for the coming years. Michael Saylor, CEO of the company, said this in a letter to shareholders. “As of April 14, 2022, MicroStrategy remains the largest bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. Together with affiliates, it owns 129,218 BTC, purchased for $3.97 billion at an average price of about $30,700,” the head of the firm said. According to him, the company's cryptocurrency strategy not only increased its value, but also led to greater recognition, helping to attract customers.

- The price of bitcoin will be $65,185 by the end of 2022. This forecast was given by financial experts interviewed by Finder. According to them, bitcoin will cost $179,280 on December 31, 2025, and $420,240 at the end of 2030. More than two-thirds of those surveyed believe that now is the time to buy the first cryptocurrency. Only 9% were in favor of exiting the asset.
Half of the experts believe that bitcoin will be eventually displaced from the position of the most popular cryptocurrency by a more advanced blockchain. 38% are sure that digital gold will stay on the throne.
Experts were asked to name the top five most effective cryptocurrencies. 87% of respondents included ethereum in it. Bitcoin was in second place with 71%, and Solana was third with 55%. Avalanche and Terra close the top 5 with 31% and 30%, respectively.

¬- Businesses will turn to cryptocurrencies as a neutral financial instrument due to rising geopolitical tensions. This opinion was expressed by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. He noted that the world is becoming more and more fragmented, and the US is using the dollar for sanctions pressure. "The dollar is one of the strongest instruments the US has," Zhao said.
According to him, the resulting geopolitical situation will lead to greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Companies and even countries will start using them because of the risk of freezing accounts and other obstacles due to sanctions. As a result, this will reduce the dollar's global influence, as the rest of the world is likely to switch to cryptocurrency, albeit in the long run.

- Hollywood film company Scott Free Productions intends to film the book The Infinite Machine, dedicated to ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. It was written by Camilla Russo, a well-known journalist in the crypto industry. The book was published in 2020 and tells how the 19-year-old Buterin rallied a group of developers around the idea of creating a “world computer”. The book tells the story of the team's challenges, from increased regulatory scrutiny to the rise of Wall Street interest.
Ridley Scott who is known for his blockbusters Alien, Gladiator, Blade Runner and The Martian will co-produce the movie. Camilla Russo and Francisco Gordillo, co-founder of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Avenue Investment, will help him with this.

- Cryptocurrency trader and analyst Tony Weiss has updated his forecast. According to him, bitcoin has broken support levels, so the risks of another strong fall are high. The coin needs to hold around $39,500 for this not to happen. “If bitcoin closes below $39,500, I will be extremely bearish for the next week and month. This is a very bad signal because the 4-day and the week charts will be completely bearish,” Weiss said.

- Cryptocurrency trader nicknamed Kaleo also believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the level that can be considered a bottom with confidence. According to him, the main cryptocurrency is preparing to retest the lows last seen in mid-2021. bitcoin is currently inside the “big wedge” pattern, and it will be broken in the coming weeks, the asset itself is expected to fall by about 28%. In addition, Kaleo warned that a break of the $38,500 level could trigger another round of bitcoin's decline and a bounce above $41,000 would not change the situation much.

- Kevin O'Leary, entrepreneur and star of the reality show Shark Tank, believes that the global tightening of mining regulation will force companies to switch to green energy. “The old ways of mining, the era of ignoring politicians, governments, the Securities and Exchange Commission, is over,” O'Leary said. He stated in an interview with First Mover that nuclear and hydropower could take an important place in the crypto mining industry in the future.

- According to analyst Kevin Swenson, one should follow the weekly volume of bitcoins on the Coinbase crypto exchange in order to accurately predict trend reversals. This indicator has correctly pointed him to the price peaks and bottom of bitcoin since 2017. “Weekly volumes on Coinbase are my favourite, and this indicator has almost never let me down before.” says the specialist.
Swenson noted that investors need to see a significant increase in volume after the correction to be completely sure of a bottom: “There is a small chance that large volumes will be observed when the rate bounces. It takes time to form a bullish trend. The bulls work together to raise the price, while the bear is usually alone.”

- Another analyst, Jason Pizzino, explained under what conditions the bitcoin rate will reach $1 million. At the same time, the expert expressed confidence that this will happen sooner or later. To do this, firstly, the flagship cryptocurrency needs to get rid from the dependence on the Nasdaq index. If this dependence continues, bitcoin and ethereum will lose value. In addition, it is important for bitcoin to stop associating itself with the blockchain. This cryptocurrency must be more like gold than part of the technology sector in order to become a global reserve asset.
The specialist said that he fully agrees with the opinion of the head of ARK Invest Catherine Wood and CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who believe that the flagship cryptocurrency will definitely reach the $1 million price mark. According to their forecasts, this will happen closer to 2030. Pizzino emphasized that the growth in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency by 25 times looks fantastic at the moment. However, the asset price increased 22 times between December 2018 and November 2021, so nothing is impossible in such a rally.

- According to Chainalysis, crypto investors worldwide earned $162.7 billion in 2021, up 400% from the previous year ($32.5 billion), as the prices of the two main cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, rose to record levels. In terms of profitability, ethereum is ahead of bitcoin with $76.3 billion, which brought investors $74.7 billion. At the same time, American investors earned the most, making a profit of $47 billion, which is more than their colleagues from the UK, Germany, Japan and China. For comparison, British investors earned "only" $8.2 billion.

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort has reconsidered his attitude to the cryptocurrency market. Recall that this American entrepreneur pleaded guilty to stock market fraud and stock scams in 1999, for which he served 22 months in prison. He published a memoir in 2007, The Wolf of Wall Street, which was adapted into a film of the same name in 2013.
Now Belfort has said he is a firm believer in cryptocurrencies and blockchain, despite once making a YouTube video in which he called bitcoin a collective delusion. He changed his attitude towards cryptocurrency because he learned how it works. However, he is somewhat distressed by the problem of fraud in this industry. The financier admitted that he himself was robbed of about $300,000 worth of crypto assets. He saw the transfer of funds, but could not cancel the transaction, which was very frustrating. And that's why he now actively advocates for tighter regulation of the crypto industry.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
New NordFX Super Lottery: 202 Prizes in 2022


The NordFX brokerage company started a new super lottery, which will give away 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 two super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize fund will be 100,000 USD. Draws will take place on July 04, October 04, 2022, and January 04, 2023.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner.

Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions.

Visit the NordFX website for more details. You can become a participant of the Super Lottery 2022 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 02 - 06, 2022


EUR/USD: Euro Updates Five-Year Low, We Are Waiting for the Fed (FOMC) Meeting


The DXY index that measures the US dollar against a basket of six other major currencies updated its 20-year high on Thursday, April 28. The reason for this growth is still the same, and we have repeatedly written about it: the Fed began to tighten its monetary policy earlier than other major central banks. It is expected that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) may raise the key interest rate by 0.5% at the next meeting on May 4. This is the minimum. For example, James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, did not rule out that the rate could be raised by 0.75% straight away.

Other national regulators are moving much more slowly (or not at all) amid the US Fed's hawkish activity. Their economies are showing weaker recovery from the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and this does not allow central banks to quickly curtail monetary programs incentives (QE) and increase borrowing costs.

Of course, this applies to the European Union as well, which also suffers additional economic losses caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia due to the military invasion of Ukraine. Recall that the dependence of the EU countries on Russian energy resources is very high.

Against this background, the dollar continued to push the European currency, and the EUR/USD pair rewrote the five-year low, falling to 1.0470 on April 28. Thus, the losses of the European currency has exceeded 700 points in April alone. There was a slight rebound at the very end of the five-day period and a finish at the level of 1.0545.

The level of 1.0500 plays the role of a support, which may lead to a reduction in the volume of short positions and, as a result, to a fairly strong correction to the north. If this does not happen, then the next target for the bears will be the 2016 low of 1.0325. It is possible that we will see the parity of the euro and the dollar 1:1 soon. However, much depends on what happens to the interest rate at the US Federal Reserve meeting on May 4, and what will be said by the management of this regulator at the subsequent press conference.

At the time of writing, analysts' votes are almost evenly divided. 35% are confident that the dollar will continue to strengthen, 30% have the opposite opinion, the remaining 35% have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Not surprisingly, with the current dynamics of the pair, 100% of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 25% of the latter give signals of the pair being oversold. The nearest support is located at 1.0500, followed by the April 28 low of 1.0470, and the bears' further goals for EUR/USD are described above. The nearest resistance zone is 1.0550-1.0600, 1.0750-1.0800, 1.0830-1.0860, 1.0900-1.0935 and 1.1000.

As for the coming week, in addition to event No. 1, the Fed meeting, the calendar includes the release of data on retail sales in Germany and business activity in US manufacturing sector (ISM) on Monday, May 02. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak the next day. We will find out the volume of retail sales in the European Union as a whole on Wednesday, May 04. The ADP report on US private sector employment will be published on this day as well. Another portion of data from the US labor market will arrive on Friday, May 06, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: The Pound Updates its Two-Year Low, We Are Waiting for the Meeting of the Bank of England

We stated in the previous review that the bulls' battle for 1.3000 is lost. Answering the question whether there will be a counteroffensive, the majority of experts (65%) answered that no, there won't be, and the pound will continue to fall. This forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and despite the oversold signals, the GBP/USD pair reached a local bottom at 1.2410 on Thursday, April 28. The last time it was at this level was in June 2020. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded in the 1.2575 zone.

Next week will see not only the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but also that of the Bank of England. According to forecasts, the regulator of the United Kingdom may raise the interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. However, since its meeting will be held on May 5, that is, a day later than the Fed, the nine members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the Bank will have time to adjust their position depending on the decision of their overseas colleagues.

In the meantime, the vast majority of experts (70%) remain neutral ahead of both meetings. 15% of them have taken the liberty of predicting a further weakening of the British pound, the same amount expects the pair to correct to the north. There is still a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% among both trend indicators and oscillators. The immediate target of the bears is to overcome the support at 1.2500, further targets for the pair's decline are located at the levels of 1.2400, 1.2250, 1.2075 and 1.2000. As for the bulls, if they manage to seize the initiative, they will face resistance in the zones of 1.2600, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

Regarding the release of statistics on the economy of the United Kingdom, the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in the manufacturing sector will be published on Tuesday, May 3. The Composite PMI and the PMI in the services sector will be announced the next day, a little ahead of the Bank of England meeting. The publication of PMI in the UK construction sector on Friday 06 May will complete the picture of business activity.

continued below...
 
USD/JPY: The Yen Updates a 20-Year low. What else to expect?

A new anti-record for the Japanese currency was fixed at 131.25 yen per dollar. The USD/JPY pair made a correction to the south in the first half of the week: up to the level of 126.92. But then, following the meeting of the Bank of Japan, we witnessed a new rally of 433 points. This was followed by a rather powerful bounce by 190 points and a finish at 129.75.

Some experts expected that the Japanese regulator might step back a bit from its ultra-soft monetary policy. Moreover, before that, various government officials had talked a lot about the fact that Japanese households are unhappy with the surge in inflation, and that, given the actions of the US Federal Reserve, it would be time to adjust their monetary policy. But the Bank of Japan remained true to itself, leaving the negative interest rate (-0.1%) unchanged and declaring its readiness to buy an unlimited number of bonds each session as needed.

According to many analysts, the Central Bank will maintain its soft monetary policy unchanged throughout 2022, and will also maintain massive incentives, perhaps at least until fiscal year 2023.

The yen was further hit by rising US 10-year Treasury yields, which rose 48 bp to 2.83% in April alone, widening the gap with similar Japanese securities. And here is the result: if the pound fell to a two-year low, the euro - to a five-year low, the yen fell to the lowest values in the last twenty years!

35% of experts vote for the fact that the bulls will storm new heights, 50% have taken the opposite position. The remaining 15% are neutral, waiting for the May meeting of the Fed. Among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% are looking north, but among oscillators, 15% signal that the pair is overbought.

The nearest support is located at 129.00-129.40, followed by 127.80-128.00, 127.45, 126.30-126.75 zone and levels 126.00 and 125.00. Resistances are located at the levels of 130.00-130.35 and 131.00-131.25. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing that can be assumed is that they will set the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19 as their goal. If the pair's growth rate is maintained, it can reach this height as early as in June.

No important information regarding the state of the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week. Traders also need to keep in mind the two upcoming holidays: Japan celebrates Constitution Day on Tuesday, May 03, and the Greenery Day on Wednesday May 04.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Trends, Forecasts and Hollywood

Bitcoin has been moving along the Pivot Point around $40,000 throughout 2022, trying to either reach $50,000 or fall to $30,000. The fight between bulls and bears continued last week as well. Looking at the chart of the BTC/USD pair, it is clear that the bears have had a clear advantage over the past five weeks. Bulls, of course, are making attempts to turn the tide, but no success is yet to be seen.

At the time of writing, Friday evening, April 29, the total crypto market capitalization is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion: at $1.752 trillion ($1.850 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly worsened its readings: it has dropped from 26 to 23 points and has returned from the Fear zone to the Extreme Fear zone. The BTC/USD pair is trading around $38,700.

The correlation of the flagship cryptocurrency with stock indices such as the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite is still very strong. The correction in US tech companies began late last year, and many of the industry's stocks are currently trading 50-70% below their highs. Investors, anticipating a sharp rise in interest rates by the Fed, switched to the US dollar, losing their appetite for risk assets, which hit the stock and cryptocurrency markets. The high risk of stagflation in many developed countries, the new coronavirus outbreak in China, the escalation of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and other processes affecting the global economy do not add optimism. So, there are many chances for bitcoin to go down to $30,000 per coin.

According to trader and analyst Tony Weiss, the main cryptocurrency has broken support levels, so the risks of another big fall are high. The coin needs to hold around $39,500 for this not to happen.

Cryptocurrency trader nicknamed Kaleo also believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the level that can be considered a bottom with confidence. According to him, the cryptocurrency is preparing to retest the lows last seen in mid-2021. (Recall that the BTC/USD pair found a bottom at $29.066 on June 22, 2021). Bitcoin is currently inside a big wedge pattern and according to Kaleo, it will be broken in the coming weeks, with the asset itself expected to fall by about 28%. In addition, the expert warned that even if we see a bounce above $41,000, it will not change the situation much.

Analyst Kevin Swenson has suggested a way to accurately predict trend reversals. According to him, it is necessary to monitor the weekly volume of bitcoins on the Coinbase crypto exchange. This indicator has correctly pointed for Swenson to the price peaks and bottom of bitcoin since 2017. Swenson noted that investors need to see a significant increase in volume after the correction to be completely sure of a bottom: “There is a small chance that large volumes will be observed when the rate bounces. It takes time to form a bullish trend. The bulls work together to raise the price, while the bear is usually alone.”

But, despite the current bearish trend, not everything is so sad. The price of bitcoin may reach $65,185 by the end of 2022. This forecast was given by financial experts interviewed by Finder. According to them, bitcoin will cost $179,280 on December 31, 2025, and $420,240 at the end of 2030. More than two-thirds of those surveyed believe that now is the time to buy the first cryptocurrency. Only 9% were in favor of exiting the asset.

87% of respondents included ethereum in the list of the most effective cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was in second place with 71%. Half of the experts believe that bitcoin will be eventually displaced from the position of the most popular cryptocurrency by a more advanced blockchain, 38% are sure that digital gold will stay on the throne.

Recall that giving a long-term forecast, the head of ARK Invest, Katherine Wood, and CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, expressed the opinion that the flagship cryptocurrency will definitely reach the price mark of $1 million. According to them, this will happen closer to 2030.

The same figure of $1 million was voiced by another specialist, Jason Pizzino last week, who explained under what conditions the coin will reach this mark. To do this, firstly, the flagship cryptocurrency needs to get rid from the dependence on the Nasdaq index. If this dependence continues, bitcoin and ethereum will lose value. In addition, it is important for bitcoin to stop associating itself with the blockchain. This cryptocurrency must be more like gold than part of the technology sector in order to become a global reserve asset.

Pizzino emphasized that the growth in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency by 25 times looks fantastic at the moment. However, the asset price increased 22 times between December 2018 and November 2021, so nothing is impossible in such a rally.

Chainalysis experts indirectly confirmed Jason Pizzino's bullish sentiment. According to them, crypto investors earned $162.7 billion in 2021, which is 400% more than in the previous year, 2020 ($32.5 billion). This happened because the prices of the two main cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, rose to record levels. At $76.3 billion, ethereum outperformed bitcoin, which brought in $74.7 billion to investors. American investors earned the most, making a profit of $47 billion, which is more than their colleagues from the UK, Germany, Japan and China. By comparison, British savers earned "only" $8.2 billion.

And at the end of the review, some news from the world ... of books and movies. Firstly, the film company Scott Free Productions intends to film the book The Infinite Machine, dedicated to ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. It was written by Camilla Russo, a well-known journalist in the crypto industry. The movie will be co-produced by such a Hollywood luminary as Ridley Scott, known for his work on the blockbusters Alien, Gladiator, Blade Runner and The Martian.

Another newsmaker of the week was former stockbroker Jordan Belfort. Recall that this American entrepreneur pleaded guilty to stock market fraud and stock scams in 1999, for which he served 22 months in prison. He published a memoir in 2007, The Wolf of Wall Street, which was adapted into a film of the same name in 2013. And now this financial “wolf” admitted that he himself was recently robbed of about $300,000 worth of crypto assets. He saw the transfer of funds, but could not cancel the transaction. The irony of fate...


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
CryptoNews of the Week


- Kenneth Griffin, CEO of Citadel hedge fund, said his company will enter the digital asset market as a liquidity provider. According to Griffin, despite his skepticism about cryptocurrencies, he is forced to recognize their value. The billionaire compared these digital assets to his collection of American abstract paintings, noting that bitcoin is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. “Why is a painting worth $10 million? This is oil on canvas. So, the value is in the eye of the beholder,” he explained.

- Another billionaire, Warren Buffett, said he sees no value in bitcoins, CNBC reports. “What would I do with them? One way or another, I would have to sell them back to you. It won't do anything. Apartments will bring rent, and farms will produce food. Assets must produce something, bring real benefits,” the legendary investor explained.
Buffett is known for his negative attitude towards bitcoin. In February 2020, he called the first cryptocurrency "complete zero" with no value. The billionaire had earlier predicted the collapse of the crypto industry. When talking about bitcoin, he used terms like “rat poison squared” and “illusion without unique value.”

- One of the largest banks in Argentina, Banco Galicia, has opened access to cryptocurrencies for its clients. Users can purchase bitcoin, ethereum, ripple and USDC stablecoin on its platform. The organization explained this initiative by demand from the clients. Another Argentine bank, Brubank, also announced the launch of a cryptocurrency service.

- Bitcoin will test the $28,000 level, according to Peter Brandt, trader and head of Factor LLC. The expert drew attention to the pattern that the price of the first cryptocurrency has formed since the beginning of the year, and the breakdown of its lower border. “The completion of a bearish channel usually results in a decline equal to its width. In this case, in a hard test of $32,000 or so, but I think $28,000,” Brandt commented. At the same time, he stressed that the negative outlook does not make him a “bitcoin hater”.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in April that bitcoin would fall to $30,000 at the end of the first half of the year. He attributed this to a possible decline in the Nasdaq-100 index, with which digital gold is highly correlated. Analysts at Arcane Research confirmed that this statistical relationship is at its highest since July 2020.
However, fintech experts who took part in the Finder survey expect quotes of the leading cryptocurrency to be above $65,000 at the end of the year with subsequent growth. Hayes himself does not doubt the prospects of bitcoin, predicting a rise in the price of the coin to $1 million by the end of the decade.

- Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen also believes that there should be a major capitulation of bitcoin before the bullish reversal begins. According to him, it will spur another round of a bullish rally.
As the BTC price dropped below the $40,000 level again, Cowen outlined a scenario for a possible fall. The trader noted the three most important long-term moving averages that keep BTC at the level of support for a multi-year uptrend: 300-, 200- and 100-week SMA. A drop below the 100-week SMA has historically been a great opportunity for bulls: “The 100-week SMA is around $36,000 now, and there is an optimal time to buy BTC every time it goes below it,” Cowen said. But if the fall gains strength, the BTC rate, in his opinion, may collapse even more and test the level of the 200-week moving average, $21,600. “Many people do not believe that this can happen,” the trader says, “but it is possible. I used to buy BTC at $6,000 and then the rate fell to $3,000. Then I bought BTC at $7,000 and $10,000 and the rate fell again to $3,800. So this has happened before and can happen now.”
Bitcoin’s 300-week moving average was briefly touched only once during the COVID-19-driven market crash in March 2020. Cowen doesn't expect a repeat, but notes that its mark is currently around $21,400.

- Unlike Arthur Hayes and Benjamin Cowen, analyst Michael van de Poppe thinks the network data hints at a possible bullish reversal in bitcoin. According to him, “BTC hash rate has reached another all-time high, although there is a tightening in the cryptocurrency space. Thus, the demand for BTC mining is growing, the network is becoming safer, and the asset price should respond to this.”
According to van de Poppe, a serious impulsive wave can be expected due to a possible correction in the US dollar index (DXY). “In my opinion, a serious move up is quite possible, especially if the US dollar shows weakness,” the analyst said. “In the event that the Fed abandons a strong tightening of monetary policy, the dollar will weaken, and this will become the impetus for the upward movement of bitcoin.”

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Mike McGlone believes that a sharp correction in the stock market will force the US Federal Reserve to change its position on tightening monetary policy, which will provoke bullish runs in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. “The Fed will continue its policy until the stock market drops enough to force the Fed to pause. That's when I think we'll see the rise of bitcoin, ethereum and maybe Solana."
“If you want a good downside indicator for bitcoin and altcoins, these are Fed Funds futures. This is what the market expects from the Fed in a year. They are valued at 3% right now, maybe more, and the actual rate is 1%. As soon as this forward expectation starts to decrease, I think that bitcoin will hit the bottom,” the analyst said.

- Brian Armstrong, speaking at the Milken Institute conference, stated that despite the rather unstable state of the crypto market since the beginning of 2022, he remains optimistic about the future of the industry. Armstrong added that the number of cryptocurrency users will increase 5 times over the next 10-20 years and reach more than 1 billion people.
Armstrong noted a significant increase in the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the United States. According to him, “it is increasingly difficult to meet a real crypto-skeptic in the District of Columbia” and added that more than 50% of the population of Washington support cryptocurrency currently.

- A recently published report by the analytical company DappRadar demonstrates the growth of crypto activity in the US, Russia and Ukraine. And if the increase in demand for digital assets is due to sanctions and a humanitarian catastrophe in the last two states, respectively, the global acceptance of virtual money in the United States is the result of an increase in the number of traders and crypto companies.
According to the results of the study, a record number of new companies related to the blockchain, metaverse, NFT and digital assets was recorded in the United States only in the first quarter of this year. The document says that even the fall of bitcoin does not affect the overall mood in the market.
DappRadar analysts note that the popularity of cryptocurrencies has increased not only in the above countries, but it has also happened all over the world. For example, against the background of the threat of global inflation, the demand for virtual money in Brazil and India has increased by 40% and 45%, respectively.

- The identity and whereabouts of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the first digital currency, is considered one of the greatest mysteries of the cryptocurrency community. Eleven years after Nakamoto last reported to colleagues, the circumstances and reasons for his disappearance continue to concern the community. Another version is that the CIA is behind this.
The editor of Bitcoin magazine Pete Rizzo has recently said that he had established a possible link between Nakamoto's disappearance and former lead crypto developer and current Bitcoin Foundation chief scientist Gavin Andresen's visit to a CIA meeting in June 2011. Andersen was concerned about the attention of the secret service, which has the ability to influence the development of the project and force the developers to do what they do not want. And now Rizzo claims that it was after this visit that Nakamoto was “never seen again.”


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
April Results: NordFX TOP-3 Traders' Earnings Exceed 230,000 USD


NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in April 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit this month was received by a client from Southeast Asia, account No.1620XXX, who earned 146,396 USD on gold (XAU/USD) trades.

The second place on the podium was taken by a trader from South Asia, account No.1621XXX, with a result of 64,004 USD, which was achieved thanks to transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD).

The third place belongs to the owner of account No. 1619XXX. Having chosen gold (XAU/USD), silver (XAG/USD) and euro (EUR/USD) as trading instruments, they made a profit of 21,184 USD.

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- CopyTrading still has an active provider under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 225% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. As before, almost all trades were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. Such a famous pair as EUR/USD got only 0.19% in their arsenal. Another signal from the same supplier, KennyFXPRO-Prismo 2K is two months younger than the first one. The profit on it is less, 128%, but the drawdown was also lower, about 45%.

Among the newcomers, we can note the Darto Capital signal, which showed a yield of 197% in just 17 days with a maximum drawdown of 25%. This result is, of course, impressive. However, this is a fairly aggressive trading style, so subscribers should be as careful as possible and not forget about risk management.

- The TOP-3 in the PAMM service has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 100% in 462 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 21%. TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a 72% profit in 393 days with a similar maximum drawdown of less than 21%, and NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated 60% income since June 11, 2021, with the same drawdown of about 21%, are also among the leaders. As in CopyTrading, the vast majority of trades here were made with the NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs.

The Ultimate.Duo-Safe Haven account, which started relatively recently, at the end of February, attracted attention. During this time, it brought not the biggest profit of 17%, but the maximum drawdown on it did not exceed 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 4,683 USD, was credited to a partner from South Asia, account No.1582ХXХ;
- the next is their compatriot, account No.1565XXX, who received 4,529 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from East Asia, account No.1336XXX, who received $4,031 as a reward, closes the top three.

***

Summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. Another super-lottery for NordFX clients has started this year. There will be 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize pool is exactly 100,000 USD.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 09 - 13, 2022


EUR/USD: A week of Many Multi-Year Records

Although some hotheads, such as James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, believed that the interest rate could be raised by 0.75% straight away, everything happened as the market expected. Following the May 4 meeting, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raised the federal funds rate by 0.5% to 1.0%. This increase was the largest since May 2000, as the US Central Bank has been changing the rate in steps of 0.25% for the last 22 years.

According to the US Federal Reserve, the key interest rate will continue to rise, as the labor market remains quite strong, and inflation is high, reaching its highest levels in 40 years. The regulator also decided to start a “quantitative tightening” from June 1. The pace of the Fed's balance sheet drawdown could rise from $35 billion in June to $65 billion in July, and then to a maximum of $95 billion per month starting in August.

At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his comments that the Central Bank is not considering an active increase in interest rates by 0.75% at the upcoming meetings. These words eased concerns about the accelerated pace of monetary tightening, which pushed Treasury yields off their highs. The market felt that the Fed was not aggressive enough, and trading on US stock exchanges on Thursday, May 05 ended with a rise, pulling cryptocurrency quotes along with it.

However, the jubilation of risk asset advocates was short-lived. The very next day, on the morning of May 06, the DXY dollar index reached a multi-year high, rising above 104.00. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago.

A massive, wide-ranging sell-off began in the stock and treasury bond markets. Technology stocks were particularly hard hit. The S&P 500 fell 4% to its lowest level since May 2021, while the NASDAQ Composite lost over 5%. At the same time, 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2018, rising above 3%.

Some experts called the event "a tug of war between the bond market, which wants more aggressive action by the Fed, and the stock market, which wants the Fed to act more moderately."

Despite the growth of the DXY Index, the EUR/USD pair behaved quite calmly. It has been moving in the side channel 1.0470-1.0640 since April 27, which periodically narrowed to 1.0500-1.0580. In addition to the expected results of the Fed meeting, which had already been included in the quotes, and Jerome Powell's comments, data from the US labor market, received on Friday, May 06, could have brought some revival. However, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) remained unchanged at the level of the previous month, 428K. As a result, the pair hesitated a bit and ended the five-day period in the central zone of the named channel: at the level of 1.0540.

A former senior US Central Bank official suggested earlier that the federal funds cost rate could eventually reach 5.0% after a series of increases. If the market decides it will, the dollar's bullish rally will continue and it could reach 1:1 parity with the euro. In the meantime, analysts' voices are divided as follows: 75% are sure that the dollar will continue to strengthen, while only 25% have the opposite opinion. 90% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 which are colored red side with the dollar, respectively, 10% and 15% are colored green. Immediate support is at 1.0500, followed by the April 28 low at 1.0470, the next bearish target for EUR/USD could be the 2016 low of 1.0325. The nearest resistance zone is 1.0570-1.0600, then there are zones 1.0750-1.0800, 1.0830-1.0860, 1.0900-1.0935 and 1.1000.

There will be few significant economic events next week. The calendar could mark Wednesday May 11 and Friday May 13 when the data for the German and US consumer markets come in. Also, changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will become known at the very end of the working week. And we should not forget about the active hostilities that are taking place in Ukraine, in the immediate vicinity of the EU borders, and the “surprises” that the Kremlin may present in response to sanctions imposed on by the European Union.

GBP/USD: Score 1.0-1.0 What's Next?

It was not only the Fed, but also the Bank of England that set a record last week. It raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% at its meeting on Thursday, May 04, which is the highest level since 2009. Moreover, 3 out of 9 MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) members of the Bank voted for raising the rate to 1.25% straight away. The number of votes against the rate hike is 0. In addition, it became known that the regulator of the United Kingdom is working on a plan to sell government bonds purchased after the crisis, which currently stand at just under £850 billion.

The Bank of England also sharply raised its inflation forecast for 2022, from 5.75% to 10.25%. (Recall that in March, inflation peaked since 1992 and amounted to 7% (y/y) with a target level of 2%). The main reason is the rise in fuel and transport prices. In April alone, fuel bills in the UK skyrocketed by 54%, and this is not the limit. In addition to the consequences of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation is aggravated by sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, and new coronavirus lockdowns in China. Inflation forecast for 2023 was also changed for the worse: from 2.5% to 3.5%.

Economic forecasts did not please investors either. And although the Bank of England left its forecast for GDP growth for the current year (+3.75%) unchanged, a recession is expected starting from the Q4. British Central Bank expects GDP contraction by 0.25% In 2023 instead of the previously planned growth of 1.25%. According to the new forecast, GDP will grow not by 1.0%, but by only 0.25% in 2024.

The interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have reached the same level of 1.0% at the moment. However, if the dollar rate may reach 3.0-3.5% at the beginning of next year, or even higher, the British regulator suggests an increase in the pound rate to 2.5% by mid-2023. and its decline to 2.0% by the end of the forecast 3-year period. Such a difference in the pace of monetary tightening is likely to continue to put pressure on the British pound. However, the Fed should also update its inflation forecasts in June, and things could change.

In the meantime, the GBP/USD pair continued to fall, returning to June 2020 levels and reaching a local bottom at 1.2275. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2340;

55% vote for further weakening of the British currency, 30% expect the pair to correct to the north and 15% - to move to the east. As for the indicators on D1, there is still a total advantage of the red ones: 100% both among the trend indicators and among the oscillators look down, although 10% of the latter are in the oversold zone. The nearest targets of the bears are to overcome the support at 1.2250, then at 1.2075, a strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. As for the bulls, if they manage to seize the initiative, they will face resistance in the zones of 1.2400, 1.2470-1.2570, 1.2600-1.2635, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

Among the statistics related to the economy of the United Kingdom, the most interesting are the data on the country's GDP, which will be released on Thursday May 12.

continued below...
 
USD/JPY: Bulls' Target Is 135.00

The correlation between 10-year US Treasury bills and the USD/JPY currency pair has not been canceled. If the yield of these securities grows, the dollar rises against the Japanese yen. We have seen confirmation of this in the past week. The pair reached a high of 130.80 on May 06 and is now aiming for a new 20-year high of 1.3125. Strategists of the international financial group Nordea expect that it may reach 135.00 by the end of the year. The strengthening of the yen and the fall of the pair, in their opinion, can only be expected in the second half of 2023.

Japanese consumer prices excluding fresh food, a key indicator monitored by the Bank of Japan, rose 2.1% in April, surpassing the 2.0% target for the first time in many years. And if the yen breaks through the level of 140 per $1, inflation in Japan may reach 3.0%, according to BNP Paribas experts. However, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has repeatedly stated that the Japanese regulator, despite the dissatisfaction of the population with rising prices, will remain faithful to the soft monetary policy.

If the Central Bank does decide to tighten it, this will make it difficult for the country to stabilize and reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP, according to Fitch Ratings. According to Fitch Ratings, this ratio reached 248% in fiscal year 2021, which is the highest among all investment-grade states and is the main credit weakness Japan. (For comparison, Italy, which is in second place, has a figure of about 150%).

The report on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Japanese regulator will be published next week, more precisely on Monday May 09. However, it is unlikely to affect the balance of power between the dollar and the yen. The scenario in which the USD/JPY pair will continue its movement to the north is supported by 65% of experts, 35% are waiting for movement to the south. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1are looking north, but 15% oscillators signal that the pair is overbought. The nearest support is located at 129.70-130.15, followed by zones and levels 128.60-129.30, 127.80-128.00, 127.00, zone 126.30-126.75 and levels 126.00 and 125.00. The bulls' target is to renew the April 28 high at 131.25. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing that can be assumed is that they will set the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19 as their goal. If the pair's growth rate is maintained, it can reach this height as early as in June.

continued below...
 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: It All Depends on the Fed


A recently published report by the analytical company DappRadar demonstrates the growth of crypto activity in the US, Russia and Ukraine. And if the increase in demand for digital assets is due to sanctions and a humanitarian catastrophe in the last two states, respectively, the global acceptance of virtual money in the United States is the result of an increase in the number of traders and crypto companies. At the same time, DappRadar analysts note that the popularity of cryptocurrencies has increased not only in the above countries, it has happened all over the world. For example, against the background of the threat of global inflation, the demand for virtual money in Brazil and India has increased by 40% and 45%, respectively. According to some experts, the number of cryptocurrency users will increase 5 times over the next 10-20 years and reach more than 1 billion people.

The specialists note that it is the activity of small investors who continue to believe in the future rise of bitcoin that saves it from a deep drawdown at the moment. Thus, the owners of wallets from 0.1 BTC to 10 BTC doubled their positions in April alone, bringing the total stock to 2.5 million BTC.

As for institutional investors (with investments of more than $1 million), the dynamics here are the opposite and it is primarily due to the actions of the US Federal Reserve. The Central bank has printed more than a third of the new dollars since spring 2020, and its balance sheet has doubled to $9 trillion. While the Fed flooded the market with cheap money, a huge amount of it was invested by investors in risky assets, supporting the stock and cryptocurrency markets. the time has come now to tighten monetary policy, which could not but affect these assets. As a result, the net outflow of investments from crypto funds has reached an all-time high of 14,327 BTC. Moreover, American investors are most active in getting rid of bitcoins, having reduced the volume of investments by 11% in a month. (And this despite the fact that the number of traders and crypto companies in the US is growing).

At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, May 06, the total crypto market capitalization is at $1.657 trillion ($1.752 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly worsened its readings: it dropped by 1 point, from 23 to 22 points, gaining a foothold in the Extreme Fear zone. The BTC/USD pair is trading around $36.100, the week low was fixed at $35.280.

A further rise in interest rates, along with unloading the Fed's balance sheet, the growth of the DXY dollar index and the yield of treasuries, continue to put pressure on the quotes of risky assets. If about 50% of all BTC coins in circulation were profitable for their owners in the middle of the week, this figure will become smaller as quotes continue to fall. So, only 40% of the coins will remain profitable at the level of $33,000, which can cause an avalanche increase in panic.

Trader and Factor LLC CEO Peter Brandt predicts that bitcoin will test the $28,000 level. The expert drew attention to the pattern that the price of the first cryptocurrency has formed since the beginning of the year, and the breakdown of its lower border. “The completion of a bearish channel usually results in a decline equal to its width. In this case, in a hard test of $32,000 or so, but I think $28,000,” Brandt commented.

Another reputable cryptocurrency trader, Benjamin Cowen, also believes that there should be a major capitulation of bitcoin before a bullish reversal begins. According to him, it will spur another round of a bullish rally. Drawing a possible downside scenario, Cowen noted the three most important long-term moving averages that keep BTC at the level of support for a multi-year growth trajectory: 300-, 200- and 100-week SMA. A drop below the 100-week SMA has historically been a great opportunity for bulls: “The 100-week SMA is around $36,000 now, and there is an optimal time to buy BTC every time it goes below it,” Cowen said. But if the fall gains strength, the BTC rate, in his opinion, may collapse even more and test the level of the 200-week moving average, $21,600. “Many people do not believe that this can happen,” the trader says, “but it is possible. I used to buy BTC at $6,000 and then the rate fell to $3,000. Then I bought BTC at $7,000 and $10,000 and the rate fell again to $3,800. So this has happened before and can happen now.”

Bitcoin’s 300-week moving average was briefly touched only once during the COVID-19-driven market crash in March 2020, and Cowen doesn’t expect a repeat of the same.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in April that bitcoin would fall to $30,000 at the end of the first half of the year. He attributed this to a possible decline in the Nasdaq index, with which digital gold is highly correlated. Analysts at Arcane Research confirmed that this statistical relationship is at its highest since July 2020.

However, fintech experts who took part in the Finder survey expect quotes of the leading cryptocurrency to be above $65,000 at the end of the year with subsequent growth. Hayes himself does not doubt the prospects of bitcoin, predicting a rise in the price of the coin to $1 million by the end of the decade.

Unlike Arthur Hayes and Benjamin Cowen, analyst Michael van de Poppe thinks the network data hints at a possible bullish reversal in bitcoin. According to him, “BTC hash rate has reached another all-time high, although there is a tightening in the cryptocurrency space. Thus, the demand for BTC mining is growing, the network is becoming safer, and the asset price should respond to this.”

According to van de Poppe, a serious impulsive wave can be expected due to a possible correction in the US dollar index (DXY). “In my opinion, a serious move up is quite possible, especially if the US dollar shows weakness,” the analyst said. “In the event that the Fed abandons a strong tightening of monetary policy, the dollar will weaken, and this will become the impetus for the upward movement of bitcoin.”

Mike McGlone, Senior Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, has similar hopes. He hopes that a sharp fall in the stock market will force the US Federal Reserve to change its position on tightening monetary policy, which will provoke bullish runs in high-risk assets. “The Fed will continue its policy until the stock market drops enough to force the regulator to pause. That's when I think we'll see the rise of bitcoin, ethereum and maybe Solana."

“If you want a good downside indicator for bitcoin and altcoins, these are Fed Funds futures. This is what the market expects from the Fed in a year. They are valued at 3% right now, maybe more, and the actual rate is 1%. As soon as this forward expectation starts to decrease, I think that bitcoin will hit the bottom,” the analyst said.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 

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