Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGLORY]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.03.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing notable fluctuations influenced by a mix of European economic data and US market dynamics. Today's EURUSD calendar includes significant releases like the Real Retail Sales from Germany and the French General Budget Outcome, both pivotal in shaping the Euro's trajectory. Concurrently, the speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is highly anticipated, with potential implications on the Euro's strength depending on the tone and content regarding future monetary policy. Across the Atlantic, the US market awaits the PMI data, which is a critical economic health indicator. Such data can directly impact the USD's strength against a backdrop of global economic uncertainties.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD Price Action has shown a consistent bearish trend on the H4 chart, marked by a descending channel pattern. Recent sessions have recorded a narrow oscillation between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, indicative of bearish momentum with intermittent stability. The last three candles, specifically bearish, reinforce the downtrend, hinting at potential continued bearish pressure if the upper resistance of the channel holds.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EUR/USD's price movement within the Bollinger Bands displays a bearish trend, as it hovers between the middle and lower bands. The narrowing of the bands slightly suggests a decrease in market volatility and a potential consolidation phase could be nearing.
Parabolic SAR: Indicative dots positioned above the candles signal continued bearish dominance, aligning with the overall downtrend observed in the price channel.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): With an RSI value at 34.28, the market is nearing oversold territory, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum or a forthcoming bullish correction.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator at -87.38 further corroborates the strong bearish momentum, as it lies close to the extreme end of its range, signaling that the market might be oversold.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest significant support level is observed around 1.09470, which aligns with historical lows and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Resistance can be found at approximately 1.11095, coinciding with the channel's upper boundary and the middle Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Considerations:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a bearish phase, indicated by both price action and key technical indicators within the H4 timeframe. Investors should remain cautious, as the upcoming economic announcements from both Europe and the United States could inject significant volatility and potentially alter the currency pair's direction. Traders are advised to watch for any breakout above the channel resistance or a bounce from support levels as key signals for short-term trading opportunities.


Disclaimer: The EUR/USD H4 analysis is provided as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Financial trading involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. Changes in market conditions can occur rapidly, requiring constant review and adaptation of strategies.


FXGlory
09.03.2024

 

[FXGLORY]

Silver/USD (XAGUSD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.05.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
As of the latest market insights, Silver trading against the US Dollar (XAGUSD) on the H4 timeframe shows nuanced movements ahead of significant economic data releases. Today, US economic indicators such as job cut announcements, ADP employment change, and initial jobless claims could sway the USD strength significantly. Favorable reports are expected to bolster the USD, exerting downward pressure on Silver prices. Conversely, weaker data may enhance Silver's appeal as a hedge, pushing prices upward. Investors and traders should remain vigilant to these updates to gauge potential market directions effectively.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, Silver has been navigating a challenging terrain marked by a descending channel, showcasing a bearish trend that recently attempted a reversal. The Silver USD price action near the middle Bollinger Band indicates a struggle between bears and bulls, with recent candles attempting to break above this resistance. The near-touch of the Fibonacci 50% retracement level suggests a potential shift in momentum if sustained buying pressure continues, pointing to an upcoming test of higher resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Silver price has been predominantly in the lower half of the bands but recently rebounded from the lower band towards the middle. This movement indicates a possible alleviation of the selling pressure, with the current Silver price attempting to breach the middle band—a crucial pivot for further bullish signals.
Parabolic SAR: Recent dots positioned below the candles signify a potential reversal from the prior downtrend. This indicator suggests that the downtrend momentum is losing strength, and a bullish sentiment might be developing, especially as the price approaches the middle Bollinger Band and the Fib 50% level.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): With a reading of 41.93, the RSI indicates that the market is neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for potential upward movement if buying pressure increases.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains below the signal line, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. However, the decreasing histogram bars may suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening, aligning with the potential shift suggested by other indicators.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: Immediate support is found at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, around $27.322, where previous lows have consolidated.
Resistance Levels: Initial resistance is observed at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, near $28.018. A breach above this could test the 50% level at approximately $28.710, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The Silver/ XAGUSD market on the H4 chart presents a complex scenario, balancing between bearish trends and emerging bullish signals. The approaching economic data from the US could serve as a catalyst for significant price movements. Traders should monitor these indicators closely, considering both the technical setups and external economic factors influencing market dynamics.


Disclaimer: This Silver USD analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their due diligence and consider their financial position before engaging in trades based on this analysis.


FXGlory
09.05.2024

 

[FXGLORY]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.06.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair remains sensitive to key economic releases from both the U.S. and Canada. On the U.S. side, today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data will have a major impact on the U.S. Dollar’s strength. Positive employment data can strengthen the Dollar as it signals economic growth and could lead to further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, any hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, will be closely watched for clues on monetary policy direction. On the Canadian side, the upcoming employment and unemployment data are key drivers for the Canadian Dollar. Better-than-expected employment figures can boost the CAD, indicating stronger economic activity in Canada. These releases will likely bring increased volatility to the USD/CAD forex pair.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, the USD CAD is currently in a bearish trend, trading below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Over the last few sessions, the price has been consolidating between the 1.34827 support and the 1.35562 resistance level. The pair briefly attempted to recover but has since retraced and is now hovering near the lower Bollinger Band. The bearish pressure is strong, though a potential bullish correction could be on the horizon if key support levels hold.


Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The USD-CAD price is in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bearish pressure. It is trying to move closer to the middle band, signaling a possible consolidation phase. The bands have widened recently, indicating increased volatility, which may precede a breakout in either direction.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have recently flipped above the candles, indicating that the current trend is bearish. Traders should watch for any reversal signals that could emerge if the price moves above key levels.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 45.55, which is below the 50 neutral mark but far from the oversold territory. This suggests that while the bearish momentum is intact, there may still be room for further downside before the market becomes oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is slightly below the zero line, showing weak bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, but any potential crossover could indicate the beginning of a bullish correction.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support is located at 1.34827. A break below this level could open the door for further downside, potentially targeting the next key support at 1.34000.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.35562. If the price manages to break above this level, it could trigger a bullish correction towards the next resistance at 1.36300.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a clear bearish bias, with key indicators like the Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, and MACD signaling downward momentum. However, upcoming fundamental data, especially from the U.S. labor market and Canadian employment figures, will likely play a critical role in determining the pair's next move. Traders should remain cautious and monitor support and resistance levels closely, as a break could signal a shift in momentum. Additionally, news from Federal Reserve officials may provide further insight into the USD’s potential strength.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves significant risk, and traders should conduct their own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Always stay updated on the latest market conditions, as they can change rapidly.


FXGlory
09.06.2024