Crude oil is a human

How much traders are able to find the movement of Crude oil Technically?


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Tamil trader

Well-Known Member
#41
Experience 14

Are you an open-minded person? or Market-minded person?

First of all, We should know the difference between open-minded and market-minded.

If you take a long position, and wait for the prices to go higher, But prices are not going higher as you desire.

in this situation, What are you doing? Howmuch time can you wait?

So i already told about the trend reversal point. now your price is coming below the trend reversal point and still you are holding your long position and think that market will come up again...Then, you are purely a Market-minded person. This is also called a "bias-trading". I surely say, you cannot win if you are a market-minded person.

Winners are also having open-minded attitude. Whenever the trend changes, they are ready to book the loss and trade with the trend. They are always flexible. They are purely riding with market trend for every ups and downs. So they win.

Bias-Trading can be suitable for long term investors for more than one year. But we are trading in MCX futures. This is not the investment product. this is just a trading product. So we are not going to take delivery.

So Newbies should be a open-minded person to get the constant winning in their trades. Accepting the loss is the best strategy whenever the trend changes against you. if you did not accept, market will throw you outside.
Be ready to take quick decision whenever the trend changes against you.

So come with market with open-minded attitude. everyday is the newday. everyday is the new trend. so dont be like a bias-trader. This advice is for the newbies only.

if you are making profit with bias-trading, this post is not for you. dont mistake me
 

Tamil trader

Well-Known Member
#43
oho realy help me ur post my future trading life tamil bro. ,,,,,,,,ur comment watch,,nice
u realy indian mahasagar..........isme mai dub jawunga(all is bad):D
Dear jamesbond.... i was heard about your previous loss in your thread...

I feel very unhappy for the loss.... Please learn the market and the way of approaching the market as this is one type of mind game business....

i believe , if you regularly exist and watch the market, one day, you can definetly become a successful trader....

Congrats for the long journey in trading
 

Tamil trader

Well-Known Member
#44
Experience 15

How to react the crude oil inventories?

Every Wednesday, Crude oil inventories are released in America. We all simply know the difference between previous data and actual data and whether it is bearish or bullish.....

But know one thing.... Data shows bullish... All the traders buy the crude... What will happen? upper circuit?..... Always not possible...

Data shows bearish..... All the traders sell the crude...what will happen? lower circuit?... Always not possible....

Then how to react the data? Actually Crude oil inventory data is connected with Fundamental Analysis... not with Technical Analysis...

But, Technical Trading is given importance by winning traders for crude oil trading. So here we can classify into three reaction by three types of traders...

Generally, Fundamentally if Crude oil shows high bullishness or bearishness on its data, It reverses its major trend in intraday....that means sudden up or fall by 100 to 150 points.... in normal circumstance, always it is not going up or down by such more points....

Are you an intraday player? Dont take any position on Data time... Cut your position before 8 Pm. and watch the data... and See the movement... After Release of the data... dont take position....you take a strict decision, i will not always trade after 8 pm in crude oil wednesday....This will save your capital and become a winning trader longtime....

Are you a positional trader? Dont worry about Data release... be with your position which is correctly with major trend... that means ... major trend can be found from hourly chart... you know well, when the major trend changes with hourly chart... until then, you can hold your position.. no need to worry about data release.. if the data is against you, you know well, Losses are the part of the business... and if the trend changes in hourly or 30 minutes chart, you will change your position as per your strategy based on technical analysis

Are you a High Net Worth individual? They always have the good chance anytime.... if the data is negative and crude goes up... they only have the chance to sell again whenever the prices goes up and average their position... because money is always not a problem.. and they are also not worrying about technical analysis.... if the data is positive and crude goes down, they again have chance to buy at lower prices and average their position again...

Generally in normal circumstances... After data release , there will be some volatile movement after 8 Pm........ but after 8.30 Pm, it will go in the same direction most of the time... so you can predict the movement of direction after 8.30 only if you are a momentum trader...

This is my general experience with crude inventory data every week.... So i always suggest intraday players, dont engage with market and lose your capital... Save the capital for next day trading.. this is my kind suggestion.. sometimes it may give good profit... most of the time, it confuses intraday players and takes money...this is the real one.

if it is not relevant with your experience, This post is not for you
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#45
Insightful post. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience. Very much appreciated.

Experience 15

How to react the crude oil inventories?

Every Wednesday, Crude oil inventories are released in America. We all simply know the difference between previous data and actual data and whether it is bearish or bullish.....

But know one thing.... Data shows bullish... All the traders buy the crude... What will happen? upper circuit?..... Always not possible...

Data shows bearish..... All the traders sell the crude...what will happen? lower circuit?... Always not possible....

Then how to react the data? Actually Crude oil inventory data is connected with Fundamental Analysis... not with Technical Analysis...

But, Technical Trading is given importance by winning traders for crude oil trading. So here we can classify into three reaction by three types of traders...

Generally, Fundamentally if Crude oil shows high bullishness or bearishness on its data, It reverses its major trend in intraday....that means sudden up or fall by 100 to 150 points.... in normal circumstance, always it is not going up or down by such more points....

Are you an intraday player? Dont take any position on Data time... Cut your position before 8 Pm. and watch the data... and See the movement... After Release of the data... dont take position....you take a strict decision, i will not always trade after 8 pm in crude oil wednesday....This will save your capital and become a winning trader longtime....

Are you a positional trader? Dont worry about Data release... be with your position which is correctly with major trend... that means ... major trend can be found from hourly chart... you know well, when the major trend changes with hourly chart... until then, you can hold your position.. no need to worry about data release.. if the data is against you, you know well, Losses are the part of the business... and if the trend changes in hourly or 30 minutes chart, you will change your position as per your strategy based on technical analysis

Are you a High Net Worth individual? They always have the good chance anytime.... if the data is negative and crude goes up... they only have the chance to sell again whenever the prices goes up and average their position... because money is always not a problem.. and they are also not worrying about technical analysis.... if the data is positive and crude goes down, they again have chance to buy at lower prices and average their position again...

Generally in normal circumstances... After data release , there will be some volatile movement after 8 Pm........ but after 8.30 Pm, it will go in the same direction most of the time... so you can predict the movement of direction after 8.30 only if you are a momentum trader...

This is my general experience with crude inventory data every week.... So i always suggest intraday players, dont engage with market and lose your capital... Save the capital for next day trading.. this is my kind suggestion.. sometimes it may give good profit... most of the time, it confuses intraday players and takes money...this is the real one.

if it is not relevant with your experience, This post is not for you
 

Tamil trader

Well-Known Member
#49
Experience 16

Important Data Timings Affecting Commodity Prices

As per some traders request, this post is given. because this post is related to fundamental concepts and very important for intraday traders

Generally intraday traders may make profit or lose money. but , which times they make profit and which time they are losing? I hope, profit or loss be may in the given time when the important data is released in international market. Generally in this time, Very volatality is seen in commodity prices

Monday
7.15 PM- Chicago PMI

Tuesday
2 PM- Manufacturing PMI
7.30PM- ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday
12.30 PM- Spanish Unemployment Change
2 PM- Construction PMI
5.45 PM- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
8 PM- Crude oil Inventories Release

Thursday
6PM- Unemployment Claims
7.30- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
8 PM- Natural Gas Storage Release

Friday
7.30 PM- Canada Invery PMI


Generally, PMI Data is related to Manufacturing products... So this day will give very impact on base metals and energy...like copper, nickel, lead, zinc, aluminium, crude oil, natural gas

Unemployment claims and Non-farm employment data will give more impact on bullions

Crude oil data will only affect crude prices, and natural gas data will only affect natural gas prices

Everyday, 12.30 PM- Europe Market opening time- so some volatile movement will be seen in all commmodities.

Every day- 7PM- US Equity Market opening time- So some volatile movement will be seen in all commodities

So Traders may be with cautions at the above mentioned time as market will be very volatile on data release....This is just for informative purpose... if you have doubt regarding any particular data, kindly ask here... i will tell give you the explanation of the data meaning and its effect.....
 

Tamil trader

Well-Known Member
#50
Experience 17

Understanding the Price Valuation and Importance of Nymex Crude and USDINR

First of all, we should know why the crude price goes up or down.....

Our MCX market is totally dependant on International Market.

In International Market, Nymex Crude or USDINR goes up or down, our MCX Crude also goes up or down... here i will give you the details about how to calculate

Actually, in the calculation we cannot get exact price. because MCX is the future Market....Every contract shows 10 to 30 points difference as this is a future contract

For Example:-

If USDINR price is 60 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 100$, So MCX Crude rate is 60*100= 6000 (MCX Rate)

If USDINR Price is 61 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 100$, So MCX Crude rate is 61*100= 6100 (MCX Rate)

Here , what are you understanding? If the USDINR Prices goes 1 Rupee up, Our MCX Crude goes 100 Points up. If the USDINR Prices goes 1 Rupee down, Our MCX Crude goes 100 Points down......So , Give the first importance to the USDINR..mainly in the morning session, Watching the USDINR trend is very important for morning players

Another Example:-

If USDINR price is 60 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 100$, So MCX Crude rate is 60*100= 6000 (MCX Rate)

If USDINR price is 60 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 101$, So MCX Crude rate is 60*101= 6060 (MCX Rate)

Here , what are you understanding? If the Nymex crude goes 1 rupee up, our MCX Crude goes 60 points up..........If the Nymex crude goes 1 rupee down, our MCX Crude goes 60 points down....

So the final decision is, first important to USDINR for 100 Points per rupee movement, Second importance is Nymex crude for 60 points per rupee movement...........

Understood? ........Most of the time, when nymex crude breaks day's low in the morning session, our USDINR breaks day's high in the morning session, MCX Crude also breaks high in the morning session..... because our MCX Crude is totally dependant on the price valuation of Nymex Crude and USDINR... I think, this basic knowledge will be enough to enable the price-action trading.

Like that, Gold, Copper, Silver, Natural Gas and other commodities are valued... but Nymex crude is always easy to calculate and trade... other commodities are traded in different lots size in comex... so the lot size should be known from comex to calculate other commodities... but Nymex Crude lot size and MCX Crude lot size are the same.. so calculation is easy....

When you are multiplying the both value, the calculated value and MCX value will not be same because of the difference between Spot price and Futures price... but movement of the ups or down will be same....

If you have anydoubt, kindly ask in this thread... i will clarify if i can....

If you have anyother calculation method, this post is not for you...
 
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