Could Corona Virus lead to a never before crash?

AJK

Well-Known Member
Is reinfection of COVID-19 still possible?
Doctors uncertain about logivity of immunity, say more data needed

By AuthorM. Sai Gopal | Published: 12th Apr 2020 12:09 amUpdated: 11th Apr 2020 10:41 pm



A coronavirus-shaped installation that has been put up by Rachakonda Police at Uppal Circle. The installation seeks to create awareness on social distancing and staying safe. — Photo: Anand Dharmana
Hyderabad: Can one get re-infected after recovering from COVID-19? The prospect of those who have recovered from COVID-19 getting re-infected has become a major concern for general public and public health authorities not only in Telangana but across the country.
The general rule is that once a person tests positive for an ailment, the body starts developing antibodies and over a period of time, they develop immunity that will prevent the resurgence of the disease.

However, is this true with SARS-CoV2 virus? “At this moment, we can’t say anything for certain. I personally believe that once patients recover from COVID-19, they should have immunity for at least some time. However, we can’t say this for certain and we need more data related to this,” says Superintendent, Chest Hospital, Dr Mahaboob Khan.
On Friday, South Korea reported that 91 recovered patients have once again tested positive for the novel Coronavirus disease. There are several such instances across the world that have prompted fears among physicians that the SARS-CoV2 could remain active in patients for much longer time.

Had Kothagudem DSP relapsed?
The State health officials are yet to ascertain why a senior police official from Kothagudem, who had recovered from COVID-19 and tested negative, had to be again admitted after he tested positive for the infection.
Persons who have recovered but then tested positive again were not examples of re-infection. They could be cases where the infection was lingering but the tests were not able to detect, senior public health officials here pointed out.
“Usually, people do not get re-infection so soon after testing negative. We are yet to reach to a conclusion on why this patient’s samples tested negative and later positive. Since COVID-19 is a novel disease, the country definitely needs more data,” Dr Mahaboob said.
Senior doctors also point out that there has been no concerted effort to understand the longevity of immunity among those who have recovered from COVID-19.
False negatives and Coronavirus
Health officials here said that the present Coronavirus diagnostic tests, which are PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) based, could give false negative results. This means, people with active Coronavirus can test negative for the disease. “We don’t have much data on the rate of false negative tests. They are still being carried out by various laboratories,” doctors said.


https://telanganatoday.com/is-reinfection-of-covid-19-still-possible
Two things can be possible:

1. This virus is very fast evolving so that it may be mutating while inside the patient, and may be surviving the medicines given and even antibodies in a weak, old, or chronically ill patient.
2. Because the meds like HCQ won't give real immunity (won't kill all the virus) in weak patients who may not be able to produce enough antibodies themselves.

Solution:
If the possibility is #2: Can treat weak, old or ill patients with plasma from healthy cured patients. Though this has some limitations, this could be the only way we can help the vulnerable ones from getting reinfected.

If the possibility is #1, there would be waves and we need to be vigil until a vaccine is up, can possibly use HCQ for prevention.


Edit: Availability of enough plasma is a hurdle. Scientists should look if we could develop antibodies outside patient body, on bloods from our normal blood banks... One article i found in relation to which is,

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/07/170724105119.htm
An international team of scientists has developed a method to rapidly produce specific human antibodies in the laboratory. The technique, which will be described in a paper to be published July 24 in The Journal of Experimental Medicine, could speed the production of antibodies to treat a wide range of diseases and facilitate the development of new vaccines.
 
Last edited:

jyotixxx

Well-Known Member
Highest ever single day surge in India Cases today ( Nearly 1400+ till now), and doubling time reduced to 06 days.

1. With this speed we might have ( Worst Case Scenario) peak out in next 03 Months without any successful intervention :

20K cases by 20 April
40K cases by 26 April
Good news that we missed out today's target. Doubling time has improved to 7.5
Coronavirus spread slows in India, rate of cases doubling improves to 7.5 days
The Union Health Ministry said on Monday that the rate at which the number of coronavirus cases in India was doubling in the last one week has improved to 7.5 days, as against 3.4 days before the nationwide lockdown was imposed.
Ministry of Health and Family Affairs Joint Secretary Lav Agarwal said at a briefing, said that the States and UTs where the doubling time is less than 20 days are Delhi where it is doubling in 8.5 days, Karnataka in 9.2 days, Telangana 9.4 days, Andhra Pradesh 10.6 days, Jammu and Kashmir 11.5 days, Punjab 13.1 days, Chattisgarh 13.3 days, Tamil Nadu 14 days and Bihar 16.4 days.
Places where the doubling time is between 20 days to 30 days include Andaman and Nicobar Island where it was 20.1 days. In Haryana, the cases are doubling in 21 days, in Himachal Pradesh 24.5 days, Chandigarh 25.4 days, Assam 25.8 days, Uttarakhand 26.6 days and Ladakh 26.6 days.
 

jyotixxx

Well-Known Member
Highest ever single day surge in India Cases today ( Nearly 1400+ till now), and doubling time reduced to 06 days.

1. With this speed we might have ( Worst Case Scenario) peak out in next 03 Months without any successful intervention :

20K cases by 20 April
40K cases by 26 April
80K cases by 02 May


Note: This is my nightmare and not reality ( I pray so). China recoveries and Italy dropdown cases bring lots of hope
39,699 cases today. 2.3k rise on a single day
 

soft_trader

Well-Known Member
39,699 cases today. 2.3k rise on a single day
Everyday new cases are hitting ATH in spite of the lockdown. I am fearing what will happen if lockdown is lifted. Many people are still not taking this seriously. This "jo hoga dikha jayega" attitude is not going to help us. God forbid we don't have to see the worst before it gets any better.
 

Dr. Jan Itor

Well-Known Member
Everyday new cases are hitting ATH in spite of the lockdown. I am fearing what will happen if lockdown is lifted. Many people are still not taking this seriously. This "jo hoga dikha jayega" attitude is not going to help us. God forbid we don't have to see the worst before it gets any better.
I would slightly disagree sir. Lockdown has done its job fairly well. The intent of the lockdown was to slow the spread, which has been successfully achieved if one compare India's numbers to global statistics. The very "purpose of the lockdown" has been misunderstood by many, especially my local grocer. :)
 

Raj232

Well-Known Member
Beware of the super spreaders of Coronavirus, they are behind the spike in numbers

https://rajatsharma.in/beware-of-th...navirus-they-are-behind-the-spike-in-numbers/
Thanks for sharing this link. The story seems to be quite relevant but also highlights one important fact about the virus. There is unnecessary panic or fear among the public.

Everyday new cases are hitting ATH in spite of the lockdown. I am fearing what will happen if lockdown is lifted. Many people are still not taking this seriously. This "jo hoga dikha jayega" attitude is not going to help us. God forbid we don't have to see the worst before it gets any better.
Dont worry too much. The fear is only because of aged persons (>65) and very young (<10) where the real precaution is required. For the rest fo the public, unless you have some comorbidity (hypertension, diabeted, hart problems, etc) this virus is just timepass.

The info from the link posted above can show some important info:
"Another super spreader was Mubarak Ali, who returned from Oman to Delhi on March 12. He had fever at that time, but he took paracetamol tablets to lower his body temperature, passed airport screening, and took a Rajasthan Roadways bus to Ramganj locality in Jaipur. He had been advised 14-day home quarantine since he had returned from abroad, but he freely mixed with nearly 200 people. He had dinners and get-togethers with old friends, and in the process, he passed on the virus."


From the above it can be seen that Mubarak Ali, went about his day to day activities even though he had the virus. All in all there was really no effect on his health even though he had the virus.

Below video also shows that there is no real worry for normal persons, only the ones who have a weak immune system that need to worry.
 
Thanks for sharing this link. The story seems to be quite relevant but also highlights one important fact about the virus. There is unnecessary panic or fear among the public.


Dont worry too much. The fear is only because of aged persons (>65) and very young (<10) where the real precaution is required. For the rest fo the public, unless you have some comorbidity (hypertension, diabeted, hart problems, etc) this virus is just timepass.

The info from the link posted above can show some important info:
"Another super spreader was Mubarak Ali, who returned from Oman to Delhi on March 12. He had fever at that time, but he took paracetamol tablets to lower his body temperature, passed airport screening, and took a Rajasthan Roadways bus to Ramganj locality in Jaipur. He had been advised 14-day home quarantine since he had returned from abroad, but he freely mixed with nearly 200 people. He had dinners and get-togethers with old friends, and in the process, he passed on the virus."


From the above it can be seen that Mubarak Ali, went about his day to day activities even though he had the virus. All in all there was really no effect on his health even though he had the virus.

Below video also shows that there is no real worry for normal persons, only the ones who have a weak immune system that need to worry.
"Dont worry too much. The fear is only because of aged persons (>65) and very young (<10) where the real precaution is required. For the rest fo the public, unless you have some comorbidity (hypertension, diabeted, hart problems, etc) this virus is just timepass. "

Its only a myth, Corona does not distinguish between ages, they are (may be) more prone to get infection because of age factor
 
Last edited by a moderator:

jyotixxx

Well-Known Member
Dont worry too much. The fear is only because of aged persons (>65) and very young (<10) where the real precaution is required. For the rest fo the public, unless you have some comorbidity (hypertension, diabeted, hart problems, etc) this virus is just timepass.
Strongly disagree, this virus is not just time pass. We need to rise above this thought. Please look at Russia, the price they're paying for such attitudes. One month back they were less than 10k. Today, the nation is being crippled down to its knees. Secondly the fear is not for self: It's more for someone in the family, may be in the form of parents, children, then comes job, security and in the bigger frame our beloved country itself!!!
 

Similar threads